Markets

Bitcoin Usually Suffers in September—But ‘Uptober’ Is Right Around the Corner

Published

2 months ago

September 8, 2024

September has been historically a difficult month for U.S. stocks. And when it comes to the Bitcoin market, the so-called “September Effect” could be just as prevalent—and the performance of the price of BTC this first week lends credence to the theory.

The Wall Street phenomenon has been well documented for nearly a century. Since 1929, the S&P 500 has declined in September 55% of the time, according to Open Markets, “by far the most out of any month, and the only individual month that has declined at least 50% of the time over the last 94 years.”

The analysis cites traders’ vacation schedules and financial firms’ fiscal calendars as potential factors.

Bitcoin’s track record is comparatively short. However, the market has experienced noticeable weakness during the first month of the fall. Since 2013, Bitcoin’s price has declined in September eight times, according to CoinGlass data.

The asset’s price has started this month with a more than 8% slide, outpacing an average drop of 5% over the past decade. September is one of only two months to average losses since 2013, with June the only other negative month with -0.35% average price movement during that span. September is by far Bitcoin’s worst month over the last decade, on average.

Even though Bitcoin has exited September green only three times since 2013, Jake Ostrovskis, an OTC trader at the market maker Wintermute, told Decrypt that the red trend is far from gospel.

“Whilst the market likes to focus on the ‘September Effect’ given its historical performance, the small sample size makes it difficult to use as a leading indicator,” he said, pointing out that Bitcoin returned nearly 4% last September.

Ostrovskis pointed to several other factors driving Bitcoin’s price action in the short term that arguably hold more importance. He said that liquidity trends, macroeconomic conditions, and the crypto market’s overall sentiment are better gauges to watch than any calendar date.

When looking at average returns, it’s important to consider outliers, Grayscale’s managing director of research Zach Pandl told Decrypt.

For example, Bitcoin’s average return of 46% in November is heavily influenced by gains in 2013, when the asset’s price pushed 450% higher. Conversely, he said a few rough years for the S&P 500 in the 1930s have contributed to the September Effect in equities.

“Bitcoin’s price was up slightly last September, and October has historically had the highest average returns,” Pandl said. “We would therefore expect only the most impatient traders to position for any September Effect, and for most investors to focus on Bitcoin’s improving fundamentals, like upcoming Fed rate cuts and growing institutional adoption.”

Most economists view the September Effect as an inexplicable anomaly with little relevance, according to Investopedia. That’s partly because it challenges the efficient market hypothesis, which holds that an asset’s secondary market price will always reflect all available information.

Still, Bitcoin’s weakness in September has often been followed by gains. Since 2013, Bitcoin’s average drop of 5% in September has been followed by a 22% gain in October and 46% jump in November. During the crypto market bull run of 2021, the trend was referred to as “Uptober.”

Edited by Ryan Ozawa and Andrew Hayward

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Bitcoin Magazine Pro

The Bitcoin Report: Key Trends, Insights, and Bitcoin Price Forecast

Published

2 hours ago

November 7, 2024

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Dive into the full October 2024 Bitcoin Report for the latest insights and analysis. Click here to read the full report: Read the Report

The October 2024 edition of The Bitcoin Report is packed with expert insights and bullish price forecasts as Bitcoin continues to carve its place as the leading decentralized digital asset. This month, we focus on several key topics: Bitcoin’s decreasing exchange balances, ETF inflows surging past $5 billion, and bullish price targets that could redefine Bitcoin’s value over the next quarter. Featured contributions come from some of the biggest names in the Bitcoin space, including Caitlin Long, who provides an industry insight into Bitcoin’s adoption cycle, and Tone Vays, whose exclusive price forecast gives reasons for optimism as Bitcoin heads toward potential new highs.

Report Highlights:

Bitcoin On-Chain Analysis: This section examines how decreasing exchange balances and growing self-custody reflect an increase in long-term holding sentiment. With Bitcoin exchange balances hitting new lows, it signals rising confidence among investors that are choosing to take control of their own assets rather than leave them on exchanges.

Bitcoin ETFs: October saw over $5.4 billion in inflows to Bitcoin ETFs, with BlackRock’s IBIT leading the market. This record-setting month underscores the growing acceptance of Bitcoin in mainstream financial markets, bolstered by the approval of options trading on Bitcoin ETFs. Dr. Michael Tabone, Economist & Professor at the University of the Cumberlands, provides his take on how this surge could play out in the coming months.

Bitcoin Mining Update: Russia and China have quietly expanded their influence in global mining, with the US still holding the largest hashrate share. Lukas Pfeiffer of Crypto Oxygen elaborates on how these shifts may reshape global mining dynamics and what it means for the future.

Price Forecast by Tone Vays: Bitcoin analyst Tone Vays remains incredibly optimistic about Bitcoin’s future price, citing multiple technical indicators and historical patterns. The report details potential price targets ranging from $102,000 to $140,000 by mid-2025, supported by bullish technical analysis such as Fibonacci extensions and a classic cup and handle chart pattern.

Industry Insights from Caitlin Long: Caitlin Long, Founder & CEO of Custodia Bank, provides her perspective on Bitcoin’s adoption trends and how the broader economic climate continues to favor decentralized assets. According to Long, Bitcoin’s fundamentals are strong, and a bull market could be on the horizon following the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

The report also contains valuable contributions from other experts in the Bitcoin ecosystem, including Philip Swift on Bitcoin derivatives, Lucas Betschart on regulatory changes, Pete Rizzo on Bitcoin history, Pascal Hügli with on-chain analysis, Dr. Michael Tabone on Bitcoin stocks and ETFs, Joël Kai Lenz on Bitcoin adoption, and Patrick Heusser on technical analysis. These contributions provide a well-rounded look at Bitcoin’s current state and its future potential.

Get the full insights, charts, and analysis by accessing the complete report now. We invite your organization to explore potential sponsorship or joint-publication opportunities for future editions by reaching out to Mark Mason at mark.mason@btcmedia.org. Let’s orange-pill the world together!

Download and Share: This report is freely available to all. Download, share, and help drive the conversation on Bitcoin adoption and education. Use the hashtag #TheBitcoinReport in your posts to join the movement.

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Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Hits $76K as Crypto Liquidations Soar, Coinbase (COIN) Rockets 30% Higher on Trump Sweep

Published

16 hours ago

November 7, 2024

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“It’s hard to think how the election outcome could have landed better for the industry, and expectations of key regulatory improvements are likely to build in the coming months and quarters,” David Lawant, head of research at crypto prime brokerage FalconX, said in a Wednesday report. “Such clarity could open room for additional crypto ETF products, covering the main crypto assets and potentially also a broader crypto index, and give entrepreneurs and investors more comfort in U.S. token launches.” However, Lawant warned of short-term risks in the meanwhile, which may include “last-minute enforcement actions by departing officials.”

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Markets

Why Bitcoin Price Could Climb Even Higher After Trump Victory, According to Analysts

Published

1 day ago

November 6, 2024

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After climbing to a new all-time high earlier this morning, the Bitcoin price has retraced only slightly after U.S. media outlets have decisively called the 2024 presidential election for Republic Donald Trump.

At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is sitting just below $74,000 after peaking at a new all-time high of $75,358.70 very early this morning, according to CoinGecko data.

And there’s reason to believe that Bitcoin’s big year—spot ETF approvals, the fourth halving, and now Trump’s victory—could set BTC up for a very strong start to 2025, according to Samir Kerbage, CIO at crypto asset manager Hashdex.

“In the six months that followed the last three presidential elections, Bitcoin has had triple digit returns, and even larger returns over the 12-month period,” he said in a note shared with Decrypt. “This history, along with the strong outperformance that typically follows Bitcoin’s halving, ongoing institutional adoption, and the improving regulatory outlook in the US, has set this asset class up for a very strong 2025.”

But not all analysts are convinced that Trump is going to deliver on the many promises he’s made to secure support from the crypto industry.

“Over the last few months, Trump has pledged to make Bitcoin a reserve currency, fire Gary Gensler, push through crypto-friendly regulation, and more. But if he doesn’t deliver on these promises quickly, the euphoria could turn to disappointment, which has the potential to result in crypto market volatility,” wrote Tim Kravchunovsky, founder and CEO of the decentralized telecommunications network Chirp, in a note sent to Decrypt. “We have to be prepared for this because the reality is that crypto isn’t the most important issue on Trump’s current agenda.”

He’s not the first analyst to flag that Trump may not be entirely serious about putting crypto at the forefront of his policies during his second term. Earlier this week, investment research firm Bernstein shared a prediction that even though Bitcoin might have initially dropped with a Harris win that it would have still been well positioned for a strong 2025.

Meanwhile, on crypto betting platform Polymarket, the main betting pool for who would win the U.S. presidential election has already been resolved.

Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan wasted no time celebrating the triumph of prediction markets over more traditional polls, which right up until the election were forecasting a close race while Polymarket showed Trump widen his lead.

I just got word that the Trump campaign HQ literally found out they were winning from Polymarket.
History was made today.
Surreal
— Shayne Coplan (@shayne_coplan) November 6, 2024

“Trust the markets, not the polls,” Coplan wrote on Twitter. “I just got word that the Trump campaign HQ literally found out they were winning from Polymarket. History was made today,” he said in another post.

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