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Bitcoin’s Anticipated Retail Resurgence

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Bitcoin’s recent price action has been a rollercoaster of highs and lows. However, even though bitcoin has set a new all-time high and had two years of a near-constant positive trajectory, we’re yet to see a consistent influx of retail investors. The potential for a surge in retail participation and the possibility of elevating the bitcoin price to unprecedented levels are prospects that many investors are anxiously anticipating. In this article, we’re going to explore when we might see these retail investors dive back into the bitcoin pool and whether their return could indeed propel BTC to even greater heights.

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Active Address Growth and its Impact

To anticipate this potential retail wave, it’s important to scrutinize the trend of active address growth. Data sourced from Bitcoin Magazine Pro suggests a downward swing in the number of active network participants in recent months. The 365-day moving average (blue line), along with the 60-day (purple line) and 30-day averages (red line), tell a tale of decreased network activity. This drop takes the count of active users back to levels reminiscent of early 2019, following bitcoin’s bear cycle, when prices hovered between $3,500 to $4,000.

This decline in active network users raises eyebrows about bitcoin’s upside potential in the current cycle. Interestingly, despite bitcoin hitting a new record of roughly $74,000, there was no corresponding sustained uptick in network users, a stark departure from previous cycles.

Figure 1: Declining averages of Bitcoin daily active addresses. Access Live Chart 🔍

The Necessary Inflow of New Capital

This trend could be a reflection of Bitcoin’s evolving identity. Originally a digital peer-to-peer currency, Bitcoin is increasingly seen as a store of value. As a result, fewer people are using it for everyday transactions and are instead pouring capital into bitcoin as a long-term asset.

The Bitcoin HODL Waves & Realized Cap HODL Waves shed light on this shift. These metrics group Bitcoin network users based on the duration they’ve held their coins, as well as showing their influence on the accumulation price of BTC. Recent data reveals that about 20% of bitcoin has been held for three months or less, indicating that new users are entering the market, but as we can see from the average active addresses in the above data, not using Bitcoin as frequently as before.

The impact of these new users on the realized cap (the average accumulation price of all BTC) is considerable, with over 40% of recent influence coming from users holding Bitcoin for three months or less (indicated by the warmer red/orange colors in the chart below). This suggests that users are entering the market at higher prices and are behaving in a manner consistent with previous cycles (we’re recently seen the initial early bull cycle inflows at comparable levels to previous cycles, indicated by the red box), just not as frequently as we have previously seen.

Figure 2: We’ve recently seen the initial early bull cycle inflows at comparable levels to previous cycles, indicated by the red box. Access Live Chart 🔍

Understanding Market Forces and Retail Involvement

A look at Bitcoin’s past cycles shows that a surge in retail activity often precedes market peaks. For example, in the 2017 and 2021 bull runs, retail interest spiked around 6 months before the price peaks. The current absence of a significant increase in retail interest, as evidenced by Google Trends, suggests we’re experiencing a more measured, and more sustainable market growth.

Another key consideration is the Bitcoin Open Interest chart, which measures the total value of open bitcoin futures contracts. Since late 2022, this metric hasn’t shown a significant increase; in fact, we’ve seen a steady decline since the bear cycle lows (indicated by the declining red line in the chart below). Revealing that investors are now preferring to trade actual bitcoin rather than merely participating in derivatives trading. This indicates a shift in narrative where investors are more interested in holding bitcoin for the long haul rather than chasing short-term speculative gains.

Figure 3: Declining trend of $BTC open interest indicating a decrease in coin denominated derivative traders since cycle lows. Access Live Chart 🔍

Conclusion

Given current trends, the lack of a retail frenzy could be seen as a positive sign for the market’s long-term prospects. As bitcoin approaches new record highs, keeping a close eye on the arrival of retail investors will be essential. If retail investors start entering the market in large numbers, will they fall back into old habits of pure FOMO buying, or will they continue to favor long-term holding?

In short, despite a fall in Bitcoin’s active user metrics, the market shows signs of stability and long-term investment. The absence of immediate retail interest might seem bearish, but it’s more likely to be bullish as it indicates a more measured and sustainable growth trajectory.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here:



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Introducing The Bitcoin Report: A New Monthly Digest from Bitcoin Magazine Pro

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In today’s financial world, understanding Bitcoin is no longer optional—it’s essential. As the sector grows and continues to attract attention from traditional finance, the need for high-quality, data-driven analysis has never been greater. That’s why we at Bitcoin Magazine Pro are excited to introduce The Bitcoin Report, a new monthly research digest tailored specifically for professional and institutional investors.

Why The Bitcoin Report?

Echoing Gordon Gekko’s famous line from *Wall Street* (1987), “Tell me in 30 seconds why talking with you for 5 more minutes will make me more money.” We know that investors need actionable insights fast. With Bitcoin evolving as a maturing asset class and institutions seeking reliable sources of information, The Bitcoin Report aims to be the go-to resource for navigating this dynamic market.

Each edition of The Bitcoin Report provides a clear and concise industry overview, offering deep dives into key topics that matter most to investors. We’ve designed this digest to deliver insights in a familiar and professional format, so you can quickly assess market trends and make informed decisions.

What Makes The Bitcoin Report Unique?

What truly sets The Bitcoin Report apart is the expertise and depth of knowledge behind each edition. Every month, we feature contributions from some of the most respected professionals in the Bitcoin and financial industry. The debut issue is particularly special, featuring insights from a diverse range of subject matter experts. These include CEOs, investment managers, academics, senior economists, digital asset portfolio fund managers, family offices, and directors of Bitcoin strategy.

For the inaugural edition, we are proud to have insights from thought leaders such as Richard Byworth, Pascal Hügli, Lucas Betschart, Lukas Pfeiffer, Dr. Demelza Hays, Dr. Michael Tabone, Dylan LeClair, Philip Swift, and Thomas Zeltner. Their expertise spans the full spectrum of the financial world, providing readers with invaluable perspectives on how Bitcoin fits into the broader economic landscape.

We extend our gratitude to these contributors for being part of the first issue and for sharing their unique insights with our readers.

Key Features of The Bitcoin Report:

– On-chain Analysis: Get an insider’s view of Bitcoin’s underlying network data to better understand market movements and trends.

Bitcoin Mining Insights: A critical focus on mining activity and its influence on the Bitcoin ecosystem, shedding light on key operational developments.

Bitcoin Stocks & Derivatives: Analysis of publicly traded companies involved in Bitcoin and their performance, as well as insights into Bitcoin derivative markets.

Regulatory Updates: Keeping you informed of regulatory changes that could impact Bitcoin markets globally.

Price Modeling Forecasts: Expert projections based on the latest data, helping you anticipate potential price movements.

Macroeconomic Outlook: How global economic conditions might affect Bitcoin’s trajectory, with detailed discussions of interest rates, inflation, and other major factors.

Our Inaugural Edition: August 2024—Available Now for Free!

We are proud to offer the inaugural August edition of The Bitcoin Report for free. Unlike many other industry reports hidden behind paywalls or subscriptions, we are committed to reaching the widest possible audience. Our goal is to make The Bitcoin Report the most-read Bitcoin digest available online, offering unparalleled value to institutional and professional investors.

Download and Share the Report!

We invite you to download the August edition and see firsthand the wealth of insights included. Whether you’re managing portfolios, seeking long-term exposure to Bitcoin, or simply staying informed, this report will provide you with the key highlights from the past month’s activity.

Feel free to share the report and its content—take screenshots, post snippets on social media, and join the conversation by using the hashtag #TheBitcoinReport. Tracking these posts will help us improve future editions and ensure that our content continues to provide value to the Bitcoin community.

A Comprehensive Resource for a Diverse Audience

Although The Bitcoin Report is tailored to professional investors, we recognize that the majority of individuals and businesses still do not own Bitcoin. As part of our mission to educate and inform, we’re including high-quality, easy-to-understand content to reach a broader audience. Each report features contributions from respected Bitcoin industry professionals, sharing exclusive insights based on their areas of expertise.

A Bridge Between Traditional Finance and Bitcoin

As institutional interest in Bitcoin grows, so too does the need for insightful, digestible analysis that bridges the gap between traditional finance and the Bitcoin world. The Bitcoin Report provides exactly that—a comprehensive monthly overview that helps investors navigate the complexities of this rapidly maturing asset class. From direct Bitcoin ownership to proxy exposure via publicly listed companies, the investment landscape is broadening, and we’re here to ensure you’re well-informed every step of the way.

A Commitment to Continuous Improvement

Our team at Bitcoin Magazine Pro is dedicated to evolving The Bitcoin Report with each monthly edition. We will continually expand on our content, add expert contributors, and refine the report based on feedback from readers. Our goal is to provide you with the most valuable, timely insights available, helping you stay ahead of the curve in this fast-paced market.

Opportunities for Sponsorship and Collaboration

If your organization is interested in sponsoring future editions of The Bitcoin Report or exploring joint-publication opportunities, we’d love to hear from you. Partnering with us offers a unique chance to reach a wide, engaged audience of investors, providing valuable exposure in the rapidly growing Bitcoin space.

Please reach out to Mark Mason at mark.mason@btcmedia.org to discuss how your brand can be part of this exciting initiative.

Conclusion and Call to Action

We invite you to explore the inaugural edition of The Bitcoin Report and see how it can enhance your understanding of Bitcoin and its investment potential. Download the report today, share it with your network, and don’t forget to use #TheBitcoinReport on social media to join the conversation.

Stay tuned for future editions as we continue to provide the Bitcoin market insights you need to succeed. Follow Bitcoin Magazine Pro for ongoing research, and together, let’s navigate the future of finance.



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Bitcoin's Potential Rally Amid U.S. Dollar Weakness

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Bitcoin and the U.S. dollar have a long-standing inverse correlation, notably when observing the Dollar Strength Index (DXY). When the dollar weakens, Bitcoin often gains strength, and this dynamic might now be setting the stage for restarting the BTC bull cycle.

DXY

The Dollar Strength Index (DXY) measures the value of the U.S. dollar against a basket of other major global currencies. Historically, a declining DXY has often coincided with significant rallies in Bitcoin’s price. Conversely, when the DXY is on the rise, Bitcoin tends to enter a bearish phase.

Figure 1: Bitcoin and DXY have historically been inversely correlated. View Live Chart 🔍

We have recently seen a significant decline in the DXY, which could be signaling a shift toward a more risk-on environment in financial markets. Typically, such a shift is favorable for assets like Bitcoin. Despite this downturn in the DXY, Bitcoin’s price has remained relatively stagnant, raising questions about whether BTC might soon experience a catch-up rally.

Figure 2: Recent downturn in DXY. View Live Chart 🔍

Sentiment Shifting

Coinciding with the decrease in demand for the U.S. dollar, the high-yield credit data suggests increasing demand for higher-yielding corporate bonds. This indicates that investors are more eager to obtain outsized returns, and historically this appetite has resulted in more significant capital inflows and higher prices as a result for Bitcoin.

Figure 3: High Yield Credit demand is increasing, indicating a shift to a more ‘risk-on’ sentiment. View Live Chart 🔍

Lagging Behind?

In comparison, the S&P 500 has seen substantial growth in recent weeks, while Bitcoin has remained relatively stagnant. However, the increasing correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P500 suggests that Bitcoin might soon follow the upward trend we’ve seen in traditional equities.

Figure 4: S&P500 has recently outperformed BTC, and given the strong correlation between S&P500 & Bitcoin there’s a chance we’ve got some catching up to do. View Live Chart 🔍

Conclusion

In summary, while Bitcoin has been slow to react to the recent decline in the DXY, the broader market conditions suggest a potential for a bullish phase in our current cycle. We’ve seen a shift in sentiment amongst traditional market investors and, subsequently, a period of outperformance for the S&P500.

Whether the market is overestimating the impact of the dollar’s decline remains to be seen, but the potential for a rally is there.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here: The US Dollar Decline Will Be the BTC Bull Market Catalyst



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The Impact of Institutional Investors on Bitcoin

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For years, Bitcoin enthusiasts have been expecting a significant change in the value due to the involvement of institutional investors. The concept was simple: as companies and large financial entities invest in Bitcoin, the market would experience explosive growth and a sustained period of rising prices. However, the actual outcome has been more complex. Although institutions have indeed invested substantial capital in Bitcoin, the anticipated ‘supercycle’ has not unfolded as predicted.

Institutional Accumulation

Institutional participation in Bitcoin has significantly increased in recent years, marked by substantial purchases from large companies and the introduction of Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) earlier this year.

Figure 1: Bitcoin company treasury holdings. Access Live Chart 🔍

Leading this movement is MicroStrategy, which alone holds over 1% of the total Bitcoin supply. Following MicroStrategy, other prominent players include Marathon Digital, Galaxy Digital, and even Tesla, with significant holdings also found in Canadian firms such as Hut 8 and Hive, as well as international companies like Nexon in Japan and Phoenix Digital Assets in the UK; all of which can be tracked via the new Treasury data charts available on site.

Figure 2: Detailed analysis of BTC treasuries for publicly traded companies. Access Live Chart 🔍

In total, these companies hold over 340,000 bitcoin. However, the real game-changer has been the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs. Since their inception, these financial instruments have attracted billions of dollars in investments, resulting in the accumulation of over 91,000 bitcoin in just a few months. Together, private companies and ETFs control around 1.24 million bitcoin, representing about 6.29% of all circulating bitcoin.

A Look at Bitcoin’s Recent Price Movements

To understand the potential future impact of institutional investment, we can look at recent Bitcoin price movements since the approval of Bitcoin ETFs in January. At the time, Bitcoin was trading at around $46,000. Although the price dipped shortly after, a classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” scenario, the market quickly recovered, and within two months, Bitcoin’s price had surged by approximately 60%.

Figure 3: Bitcoin price action following the ETF approvals. Access Live Chart 🔍

This increase correlates with institutional investors’ accumulation of Bitcoin through ETFs. If this pattern continues and institutions keep buying at the current or increased pace, we could witness a sustained bullish momentum in Bitcoin prices. The key factor here is the assumption that these institutional players are long-term holders, unlikely to sell off their assets anytime soon. This ongoing accumulation would reduce the liquid supply of Bitcoin, requiring less capital inflow to drive prices even higher.

The Money Multiplier Effect: Amplifying the Impact

The accumulation of assets by institutional players is significant. Its potential impact on the market is even more profound when you consider the money multiplier effect. The principle is straightforward: when a large portion of an asset’s supply is removed from active circulation, such as the nearly 75% of supply that hasn’t moved in at least six months as outlined by the HODL Waves, the price of the remaining circulating supply can be more volatile. Each dollar invested has a magnified impact on the overall market cap.

Figure 4: Bitcoin HODL waves outlining the illiquidity of BTC. Access Live Chart 🔍

For Bitcoin, with roughly 25% of its supply being liquid and actively traded, the money multiplier effect can be particularly potent. If we assume this illiquidity results in a $1 market inflow increase in the market cap by $4 (4x money multiplier), institutional ownership of 6.29% of all bitcoin could effectively influence around 25% of the circulating supply.

If institutions were to begin offloading their holdings, the market would likely experience a significant downturn. Especially as this would likely trigger retail holders to begin offloading their bitcoin too. Conversely, if these institutions continue to buy, the BTC price could surge dramatically, particularly if they maintain their positions as long-term holders. This dynamic underscores the double-edged nature of institutional involvement in Bitcoin, as it slowly then suddenly possesses a greater influence on the asset.

Conclusion

Institutional investment in Bitcoin has both positive and negative aspects. It brings legitimacy and capital that could drive Bitcoin prices to new heights, especially if these entities are committed long term. However, the concentration of Bitcoin in the hands of a few institutions could lead to heightened volatility and significant downside risk if these players decide to exit their positions.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here:



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