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Bitcoin's Potential Rally Amid U.S. Dollar Weakness

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Bitcoin and the U.S. dollar have a long-standing inverse correlation, notably when observing the Dollar Strength Index (DXY). When the dollar weakens, Bitcoin often gains strength, and this dynamic might now be setting the stage for restarting the BTC bull cycle.

DXY

The Dollar Strength Index (DXY) measures the value of the U.S. dollar against a basket of other major global currencies. Historically, a declining DXY has often coincided with significant rallies in Bitcoin’s price. Conversely, when the DXY is on the rise, Bitcoin tends to enter a bearish phase.

Figure 1: Bitcoin and DXY have historically been inversely correlated. View Live Chart 🔍

We have recently seen a significant decline in the DXY, which could be signaling a shift toward a more risk-on environment in financial markets. Typically, such a shift is favorable for assets like Bitcoin. Despite this downturn in the DXY, Bitcoin’s price has remained relatively stagnant, raising questions about whether BTC might soon experience a catch-up rally.

Figure 2: Recent downturn in DXY. View Live Chart 🔍

Sentiment Shifting

Coinciding with the decrease in demand for the U.S. dollar, the high-yield credit data suggests increasing demand for higher-yielding corporate bonds. This indicates that investors are more eager to obtain outsized returns, and historically this appetite has resulted in more significant capital inflows and higher prices as a result for Bitcoin.

Figure 3: High Yield Credit demand is increasing, indicating a shift to a more ‘risk-on’ sentiment. View Live Chart 🔍

Lagging Behind?

In comparison, the S&P 500 has seen substantial growth in recent weeks, while Bitcoin has remained relatively stagnant. However, the increasing correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P500 suggests that Bitcoin might soon follow the upward trend we’ve seen in traditional equities.

Figure 4: S&P500 has recently outperformed BTC, and given the strong correlation between S&P500 & Bitcoin there’s a chance we’ve got some catching up to do. View Live Chart 🔍

Conclusion

In summary, while Bitcoin has been slow to react to the recent decline in the DXY, the broader market conditions suggest a potential for a bullish phase in our current cycle. We’ve seen a shift in sentiment amongst traditional market investors and, subsequently, a period of outperformance for the S&P500.

Whether the market is overestimating the impact of the dollar’s decline remains to be seen, but the potential for a rally is there.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here: The US Dollar Decline Will Be the BTC Bull Market Catalyst



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Mathematically Forecasting Peak Bitcoin Price For The Next Bull Cycle

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With years of historical data, we can observe the patterns from past bull cycles to become increasingly capable of making predictions about our current cycle. In this analysis, we take a deep dive into when the next Bitcoin peak may occur and at what price level.

The Pi Cycle

The Pi Cycle Top Indicator is one of our most popular tools for analyzing Bitcoin’s cycles. This indicator monitors the 111-day and 350-day (multiplied by 2) moving averages, and when these two lines cross, it has historically been a reliable sign of Bitcoin reaching a cycle peak, typically within just a few days. After multiple months of these two levels drifting apart due to the sideways price action, we’ve just begun to see the 111-day trending back up again to begin closing the gap.

Figure 1: Pi Cycle Top Indicator 111DMA has begun trending upward. View Live Chart 🔍

We can measure the difference between the two averages to better define Bitcoin’s position within bull and bear cycles with the Pi Cycle Top & Bottom Indicator. This oscillator trending up again hints that Bitcoin’s next bull run may be just around the corner, with parallels to previous cycles seen in 2016 and 2020.

Figure 2: Pi Cycle Top & Bottom Indicator ending its downtrend. View Live Chart 🔍

Previous Bitcoin Cycles

Historically, Bitcoin’s bull cycles exhibit similar phases: initial rapid growth, a cooling-off period, a second peak, and finally, a significant retracement followed by a new surge.

2016 Cycle: This cycle saw a first peak, a dip, a second peak, and then a full-blown bull market. It’s very similar to the trend we’re currently seeing. Bitcoin’s price reached new highs after these two retracements.

2020-2021 Cycle: The pattern was slightly less pronounced, but a similar trajectory was observed. Bitcoin’s price peaked twice, once during the initial surge and again at the peak of the bull run as BTC was reaching an all-time.

Using the Bitcoin Magazine Pro API, we can simulate different growth scenarios based on past cycles. Since the Pi Cycle Top and Bottom oscillator recently turned upward we can overlay the rate of change in the oscillator from the previous cycles to see potential route this cycle.

Figure 3: Oscillator and 111DMA projections based on historical rates of change.

If the 2021 cycle repeats, the 111-day and 350-day moving averages may cross around June 29, 2025, signaling a potential Bitcoin peak. If the 2017 cycle is mirrored, the moving averages might not cross until January 28, 2026, suggesting a later peak.

Price Projections

Using these dates, we can also attempt to estimate potential price levels. Historically, Bitcoin’s price exceeded the moving averages significantly at its peak. During the 2017 bull run, Bitcoin’s price was three times the value of these moving averages at the peak. However, as the market matures, we’ve seen diminishing returns in each cycle, meaning Bitcoin’s price might not increase as dramatically compared to its moving averages as it has historically.

Figure 4: Potential targets for BTC this cycle based on previous cycle projections.

If Bitcoin follows a pattern similar to the 2021 cycle, with an increase of about 40% above its moving averages, this would place Bitcoin’s peak at approximately $339,000. Assuming diminishing returns, Bitcoin’s price might only rise about 20% above the moving averages. In this case, the peak price would be closer to $200,000 by mid-2025.

Similarly, if the 2017 extended cycle repeats with diminishing returns, Bitcoin could peak at $466,000 in early 2026, while a more moderate increase might result in a peak price of around $388,000. Although it’s unlikely Bitcoin will hit one million dollars in this cycle, these more tempered projections could still represent substantial gains.

Conclusion

While these projections use well-established data, they’re not guarantees. Every cycle has its unique dynamics influenced by economic conditions, investor sentiment, and regulatory changes. Diminishing returns and potentially even lengthening cycles are likely, reflecting the maturation of Bitcoin’s market.

As Bitcoin’s bull cycle continues to develop, these predictive tools could provide increasingly accurate insights, particularly as the data evolves. However, analysis such as this provides potential outcomes to assist in your risk management and prepare for every outcome.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here: Mathematically Predicting The Next Bitcoin All Time High



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Is Bitcoin Repeating Previous Bull Cycles?

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Bitcoin’s price cycles have long been a source of intrigue for investors and analysts alike. We can gain insights into potential price movements by comparing current trends to previous cycles, especially with Bitcoin seemingly coming to an end of its consolidation period, many wonder if the next leg up is around the corner.

Comparing Bitcoin Cycles

To begin, it’s crucial to look at how Bitcoin has performed since hitting its recent cycle low. As we examine the data, a clear picture begins to form: Bitcoin’s current price action (black line) is showing patterns similar to previous bull cycles. Although it has been a choppy consolidation period, where the price has been relatively stagnant, there are key similarities when we compare this cycle to those in 2015-2018 (purple line) and 2018-2022 (blue line).

Figure 1: BTC Growth Since Cycle Lows showing similarities with our previous two cycles. View Live Chart 🔍

Where we are today, in terms of percentage gains, is comparable to both the 2018 and 2015 cycles. However, this comparison only scratches the surface. Price action alone doesn’t tell the full story, so we need to dive deeper into investor behavior and other metrics that shape the Bitcoin market.

Investor Behavior

One key metric that gives us insight into investor behavior is the MVRV Z-Score. This ratio compares Bitcoin’s current market price to its “realized price” (or cost basis), which represents the average price at which all Bitcoin on the network was accumulated. The Z-Score then just standardizes the raw MVRV data for BTC volatility to exclude extreme outliers.

Figure 2: Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score gives insights into profits and losses for the average investor. View Live Chart 🔍

Analyzing metrics such as this one, as opposed to purely focusing on price actions, will allow us to see patterns and similarities in our current cycle to previous ones, not just in dollar movements but also in investor habits and sentiment.

Correlating Movements

To better understand how the current cycle aligns with previous ones, we turn to the data from Bitcoin Magazine Pro, which offers in-depth insights through its API. Excluding our Genesis cycle, as there is little correlation and isolating the price and MVRV data from Bitcoin’s lowest closing prices to its highest points in our current and previous three cycles, we can see clear correlations.

Figure 3: Price and MVRV correlations between this cycle and our previous three.

2011 to 2013 Cycle: This cycle, characterized by its double peak, shows a strong 87% correlation with the current price action. The MVRV ratio also shows a high 82% correlation, meaning that not only is Bitcoin’s price behaving similarly, but so is investor behavior in terms of buying and selling.

2015 to 2017 Cycle: This cycle is actually the closest in terms of price action, boasting an 89% correlation with our current cycle. However, the MVRV ratio is slightly lower, suggesting that while prices are following similar paths, investor behavior might be slightly different.

2018 to 2021 Cycle: This most recent cycle, while positive, has the lowest correlation to current trends, indicating that the market may not be following the same patterns it did just a few years ago.

Are We in for Another Double Peak?

The strong correlation with the 2011-2013 cycle is particularly noteworthy. During that period, Bitcoin experienced a double peak, where the price surged to new all-time highs twice before entering a prolonged bear market. If Bitcoin follows this pattern, we could be on the verge of significant price movements in the coming weeks. After overlaying the price action fractal from this period over our current cycle and standardizing the returns, the similarities are instantly noticeable.

Figure 4: Overlaying a standardized fractal of the 2013 double peak cycle on our current price action.

In both cases, Bitcoin had a rapid run-up to a new high, followed by a long, choppy period of consolidation. If history repeats itself, we could see a massive price rally soon, potentially to around $140,000 before the end of the year when accounting for diminishing returns.

Patterns In Investor Behavior

Another valuable metric to examine is the Value Days Destroyed (VDD). This metric weights BTC movements by the amount being moved and the time since it was last transferred and multiplies this value by the price to offer insights into long-term investors’ behavior, specifically profit-taking.

Figure 5: VDD initial run-up and cool-off confirm similarities in investor behavior. View Live Chart 🔍

In the current cycle, VDD has shown an initial spike similar to the red spikes we saw during the 2013 double peak. This run-up as BTC ran to a new all-time high earlier this year before a sustained consolidation period could see us reaching new highs soon again if this double peak cycle pattern continues.

A More Realistic Scenario

As Bitcoin has grown and matured as an asset, we’ve seen extended cycles and diminishing returns in our two most recent cycles compared to our initial two. Therefore, it’s probably more likely that BTC follows the cycle in which we’re seeing the strongest correlation in price action.

Figure 6: Overlaying a fractal of the 2017 cycle on our current price action.

If Bitcoin follows the 2015-2017 pattern, we could still see new all-time highs before the end of 2024, but the rally would likely be slower and more sustainable. This scenario predicts a price target of around $90,000 to $100,000 by early 2025. After that, we could see continuous growth throughout the year, with a potential market peak in late 2025, although a peak of $1.2 million if we follow this pattern exactly may be optimistic!

Conclusion

Historical data suggests we’re approaching a critical turning point. Whether we follow the explosive double-peak cycle from 2011-2013 or the slower but steady rise of 2015-2017, the outlook for Bitcoin remains bullish. Monitoring key metrics like the MVRV ratio and Value Days Destroyed will provide further clues as to where the market is headed, and comparing correlations with our previous cycles will give us better insights into what may be coming.

With Bitcoin poised for a breakout, whether in the next few weeks or in 2025, if BTC even remotely follows the patterns of any of our previous cycles, investors should prepare for significant price action and potential new all-time highs sooner rather than later.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here: Comparing Bitcoin Bull Runs: Which Cycle Are We Following



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Can Bitcoin Now Make A New All-Time High

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Bitcoin has been steadily climbing since crossing the $60,000 mark and is currently hovering closer to the $70,000 level, a price it hasn’t reached in months. With the market sentiment heating up, investors are wondering whether Bitcoin has the strength to reach new all-time highs or if it will struggle to break past key resistance levels.

A Healthy Sentiment

The Fear and Greed Index is a useful tool for understanding market sentiment and how traders view the trajectory of Bitcoin. Currently, the index is at a “Greed” level of around 70, which is historically seen as a positive sign but still a fair distance from the extreme greed levels that could indicate a potential market top. This index measures emotions in the market, with lower levels indicating fear and higher levels suggesting greed. Typically, when the index surpasses the 90+ range, the market becomes overly bullish, raising concerns of overextension.

Figure 1: Fear & Greed Index shows a healthy positive sentiment. View Live Chart 🔍

It’s important to note that last year, when the Fear and Greed Index reached similar levels, Bitcoin was trading at around $34,000. From there, it more than doubled to $73,000 over the following months.

Key Support

The Short-Term Holder Realized Price measures the average price new Bitcoin investors have paid for their bitcoin. It’s crucial because it often acts as a strong support level during bull markets and as resistance during bear markets. Currently, this price sits around $62,000, and Bitcoin has managed to stay above it. This is a promising sign, as it shows that newer market participants are in profit, and Bitcoin is holding above a crucial support zone. Historically, breaking below this level has led to market weakness, so maintaining this support is key to any continued rally.

Figure 2: Short-Term Holder Realized Price has been reclaimed. View Live Chart 🔍

We’ve seen this dynamic in past cycles, especially during the 2016-2017 bull market, where Bitcoin retraced to this level several times before continuing its climb. If this trend holds, Bitcoin’s recent breakthrough could provide a foundation for further gains.

Stabilizing Market

One area that traders often watch is Funding Rates, which indicate the cost of holding long or short positions in Bitcoin futures. Over the past few months, funding rates have been volatile, swinging between overly optimistic long positions and overly bearish short positions. Thankfully, the market has now stabilized, with funding rates sitting at neutral levels. This is a healthy sign as it suggests traders aren’t overly leveraged in either direction.

Figure 3: Futures markets have de-leveraged and have reset to healthy levels. View Live Chart 🔍

In neutral territory, there’s less risk of a liquidation cascade, a common phenomenon when over-leveraged positions get wiped out, causing sharp market drops. As long as the funding rates remain stable, Bitcoin could have the breathing room it needs to continue rising without major volatility.

A Tough Path to $70,000 and Beyond

While the market sentiment and technicals suggest that Bitcoin is in a healthy place, there are still significant levels of resistance above. First, the current resistance trend line is one that Bitcoin has struggled to break. This downtrend line has been tested several times, but each time, Bitcoin has retraced after hitting it.

Beyond this, Bitcoin faces several additional barriers, such as $70,000. This level has acted as resistance in the past and represents a psychological level that traders will likely be watching closely. And above that the all-time high between $73,000 and $74,000. Breaking this would be a major bullish signal, but it could take several attempts before Bitcoin clears this level.

Figure 4: Bitcoin has significant resistance at $70,000 and above.

One positive technical element is the recent reclaim of the 200 daily moving average. A key level for investors to watch that had acted as resistance for BTC over the previous few months.

The Macro Environment: Institutional and ETF Inflows

Beyond technical indicators, the macro environment is increasingly favorable for Bitcoin. Institutional money continues to flow into Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). In the past few days, over $1 billion has flowed into Bitcoin ETFs, reflecting growing confidence in the asset. Over the past few weeks, we’ve seen hundreds of millions more in ETF inflows, signaling that smart money, particularly institutional investors, is bullish on Bitcoin’s future.

Figure 5: Bitcoin ETFs have experienced large-scale inflows recently. View Live Chart 🔍

This is significant because institutional money tends to take a long-term view, providing a more stable base of support than retail speculation. Moreover, as equities and even gold have been gaining ground in recent months, Bitcoin appears to be lagging slightly behind. This could set the stage for Bitcoin to play catch-up, particularly if investors rotate from traditional assets into the more risk-on realm of Bitcoin.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s price action, funding rates, and sentiment all suggest that the market is in a healthier place than it has been in months. Institutional inflows into ETFs and improving macro conditions add further bullish tailwinds. However, significant resistance lies ahead, and any rally will likely face challenges before Bitcoin can truly break out to new highs.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here:

Can Bitcoin Now Make A New ATH



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