Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the U.S. recorded a negative week once again amid escalating trade tensions following President Donald Trump’s announcement of new tariffs, dubbed ‘Liberation Day’ duties.

According to data from SoSoValue, the 12 spot Bitcoin ETFs reported $172.89 million in net outflows over the past week, snapping a two-week inflow streak that drew in nearly $941 million into the funds.

Notably, these ETFs experienced outflows on four of the five days between March 31 and April 4. Monday saw $71.07 million in outflows, followed by $157.64 million on Tuesday, $99.86 million on Thursday, and $64.88 million on Friday. The only positive day was Wednesday, with $220.76 million in inflows.

The majority of outflows came from Grayscale GBTC, which lost $95.5 million over last week, followed by WisdomTree’s BTCW with $44.6 million per Faside data. Additionally, outflows came from IBIT, BITB, ARKB, and HODL funds that saw $35.5 million, $24.1 million, $22.2 million, and $4.9 million in net redemption, respectively.

However, it wasn’t entirely a bearish week across the board, as Grayscale’s spot Bitcoin Trust, Franklin Templeton’s EZBC, and Fidelity’s FBTC still saw combined inflows of $61.8 million. The remaining BTC ETFs remained flat over the five days.

The drop in investor demand wasn’t limited to Bitcoin ETFs. Ethereum ETFs recorded $49.93 million in outflows last week, marking six straight weeks of withdrawals totaling over $795 million.

These outflows come as Bitcoin posted its worst first-quarter performance since 2018, and investor sentiment weakened due to Trump’s new tariff plans, starting with a flat 10% on all imports and higher rates for certain key trading partners, raising fears of a new global trade war.

At press time, the crypto market was down nearly 10% over the past day. Bitcoin had dropped 9.3%, falling below the $76,500 mark, a level BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes previously warned must be held to avoid deeper losses.

Bitcoin has seen an institutional capital influx on a scale previously unfathomable. Billions of dollars are flowing into Bitcoin ETFs, reshaping the liquidity landscape, inflow-outflow dynamics, and investor psychology. While many interpret this movement as smart money executing complex strategies backed by proprietary analytics, a surprising reality surfaces: outperforming the institutions might not be as difficult as it seems.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here:
Outperforming Bitcoin – Invest Like Institutions

Canary In The Bitcoin Coal Mine

One of the most revealing datasets available today is daily Bitcoin ETF flow data. These flows, denoted in USD, offer direct insight into how much capital is entering or exiting the Bitcoin ETF ecosystem on any given day. This data has a startlingly consistent relationship with short to mid-term price action.

Importantly, while these flows do impact price, they are not the primary movers of a multi-trillion-dollar market. Instead, ETF activity functions more like a mirror for broad market sentiment, especially as retail traders dominate volume during trend inflections.

Surprisingly Simple

The average retail investor often feels outmatched, overwhelmed by the data, and disconnected from the tactical finesse institutions supposedly wield. But institutional strategies are often simple trend-following mechanisms that can be emulated and even surpassed with disciplined execution and proper risk framing:

Strategy Rules:

1. Buy when ETF flows are positive for the day.
2. Sell when ETF flows turn negative.
3. Execute each trade at daily close, using 100% portfolio allocation for clarity.
4. No complex TA, no trendlines, just follow the flows.

This system was tested using Bitcoin Magazine Pro’s ETF data starting from January 2024. The base assumption was a first entry on Jan 11, 2024, at ~$46,434 with subsequent trades dictated by flow changes.

Performance vs. Buy-and-Hold

Backtesting this basic ruleset yielded a return of 118.5% as of the end of March 2025. By contrast, a pure buy-and-hold position over the same period yielded 81.7%, a respectable return, but a near 40% underperformance relative to this proposed Bitcoin ETF strategy.

Importantly, this strategy limits drawdowns by reducing exposure during downtrends, days marked by institutional exits. The compounding benefit of avoiding steep losses, more than catching absolute tops or bottoms, is what drives outperformance.

Institutional Behavior

The prevailing myth is that institutional players operate on superior insight. In reality, the majority of Bitcoin ETF inflows and outflows are trend-confirming, not predictive. Institutions are risk-managed, highly regulated entities; they’re often the last to enter and the first to exit based on trend and compliance cycles.

What this means is that institutional trades tend to reinforce existing price momentum, not lead it. This reinforces the validity of using ETF flows as a proxy signal. When ETFs buy, they’re confirming a directional shift that is already unfolding, allowing the retail investor to “surf the wave” of their capital inflow.

Conclusion

The past year has proven that beating Bitcoin’s buy-and-hold strategy, one of the toughest benchmarks in financial history, is not impossible. It requires neither leverage nor complex modeling. Instead, by aligning oneself with institutional positioning, retail investors can benefit from market structure shifts without the burden of prediction.

This doesn’t mean the strategy will work forever. But as long as institutions continue to influence price through these large, visible flow mechanics, there is an edge to be gained in simply following the money.

If you’re interested in more in-depth analysis and real-time data, consider checking out Bitcoin Magazine Pro for valuable insights into the Bitcoin market.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

Bitcoin’s market structure is evolving, and its once-predictable four-year cycles may no longer hold the same relevance. In a recent conversation with Matt Crosby, lead analyst at Bitcoin Magazine Pro, Mitchell Askew, Head Analyst at Blockware Solutions, shared his perspective on how Bitcoin ETFs, mining advancements, and institutional adoption are reshaping the asset’s price behavior.

Watch the Full Interview:

According to Askew, Bitcoin’s historical pattern of parabolic price increases followed by steep drawdowns is changing as institutional investors enter the market. At the same time, the mining industry is becoming more efficient and stable, creating new dynamics that affect Bitcoin’s supply and price trends.

Bitcoin’s Market Cycles Are Fading

Askew suggests that Bitcoin may no longer experience the extreme cycles of past bull and bear markets. Historically, halving events reduced miner rewards, triggered supply shocks, and fueled rapid price increases, often followed by corrections of 70% or more. However, the increasing presence of institutional investors is leading to a more structured, macro-driven market.

He explains that Spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasury allocations are bringing consistent demand into Bitcoin, reducing the likelihood of extreme boom-and-bust price movements. Unlike retail traders, who tend to buy in euphoria and panic-sell during downturns, institutions are more likely to sell into strength and accumulate Bitcoin on dips.

Askew also notes that since Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024, price movements have become more measured, with longer consolidation periods before continued growth. This suggests Bitcoin is beginning to behave more like a traditional financial asset, rather than a speculative high-volatility market.

The Role of Bitcoin Mining in Price Stability

As a mining analyst at Blockware Solutions, Askew provides insight into how Bitcoin mining dynamics influence price trends. He notes that while many assume a rising hash rate is always bullish, the reality is more complex.

In the short term, increasing hash rate can be bearish, as it leads to higher competition among miners and more Bitcoin being sold to cover electricity costs. However, over the long term, a rising hash rate reflects greater investment in Bitcoin infrastructure and network security.

Another key observation from Askew is that Bitcoin’s hash rate growth lags behind price growth by 3-12 months. When Bitcoin’s price rises sharply, mining profitability increases, prompting more capital to flow into mining infrastructure. However, deploying new mining rigs and setting up facilities takes time, leading to a delayed impact on hash rate expansion.

Why Mining Profitability Is Stabilizing

Askew also highlights that mining hardware efficiency is reaching a plateau, which has significant implications for miners and Bitcoin’s supply structure.

In Bitcoin’s early years, new mining machines offered dramatic efficiency improvements, forcing miners to upgrade hardware every 1-2 years to remain competitive. Today, however, new models are only about 10% more efficient than the previous generation. As a result, mining rigs can now remain profitable for 4-8 years, reducing the pressure on miners to continuously reinvest in new equipment.

Electricity costs remain the biggest factor in mining profitability, and Askew explains that miners are increasingly seeking low-cost power sources to maintain long-term sustainability. Many companies, including Blockware Solutions, operate in rural U.S. locations with stable energy prices, ensuring better profitability even during market downturns.

Could the U.S. Government Start Accumulating Bitcoin?

Another important discussion point raised by Askew is the potential for a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR). Some policymakers have proposed that the U.S. government accumulate Bitcoin in the same way it holds gold reserves, recognizing its potential as a global store of value.

Askew explains that if such a reserve were implemented, it could create a massive supply shock, pushing Bitcoin’s price significantly higher. However, he cautions that government action is slow and would likely involve gradual accumulation rather than sudden large-scale purchases.

Even if implemented over several years, such a program could further reinforce Bitcoin’s long-term bullish trajectory by removing available supply from the market.

Bitcoin Price Predictions & Long-Term Outlook

Based on current trends, Askew remains bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term price trajectory, though he believes the market’s behavior is shifting toward more gradual, sustained growth rather than extreme speculative cycles.

Bitcoin Price Targets for 2025:

• Base Case: $150K – $200K
• Bull Case: $250K+

Long-Term (10-Year) Forecast:

• Base Case: $500K – $1M
• Bull Case: Bitcoin flips gold’s $20T market cap → $1M+ per BTC

Askew sees several key factors driving Bitcoin’s price over the next decade, including:
Steady institutional demand from ETFs and corporate treasuries.
Reduced mining hardware upgrades, leading to a more stable industry.
Potential government involvement in Bitcoin reserves.
Macroeconomic conditions such as interest rates, inflation, and global liquidity cycles.

He emphasizes that as Bitcoin’s market structure matures, it may become less susceptible to sharp price swings, making it a more attractive long-term asset for institutions.

Conclusion: A More Mature Bitcoin Market

According to Askew, Bitcoin is undergoing a structural shift that will shape its price trends for years to come. With institutional investors reducing market volatility, mining innovations improving efficiency, and potential government adoption, Bitcoin’s market behavior is beginning to resemble that of gold or other long-term financial assets.

While dramatic parabolic runs may become less frequent, Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory appears stronger and more sustainable than ever. Askew’s perspective reinforces the idea that Bitcoin is no longer just a speculative asset—it is evolving into a key financial instrument with increasing global adoption.

If you’re interested in more in-depth analysis and real-time data, consider checking out Bitcoin Magazine Pro for valuable insights into the Bitcoin market.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.