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BTC’s Strength Amid Nasdaq Drop is Impressive, But Potential Basis Trade Blowup That Catalyzed the COVID Crash Poses Risk

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Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent stability amid Nasdaq turmoil driven by tariffs has generated excitement among market participants regarding the cryptocurrency’s potential as a haven asset.

Still, the bulls might want to keep an eye on the bond market, where dynamics that characterized the COVID crash of March 2020 may be emerging.

Nasdaq, Wall Street’s tech-heavy index known to be positively correlated to bitcoin, has dropped 11% since President Donald Trump on Wednesday announced reciprocal tariffs on 180 nations, escalating trade tensions and drawing retaliatory levies from China.

Other U.S. indices and global markets have also taken a beating alongside sharp losses in the risk currencies like the Australian dollar and a pullback in gold.

BTC has largely remained stable, continuing to trade above $80,000, and its resilience is being viewed as a sign of its evolution into a macro hedge.

(CoinDesk)

(CoinDesk)

“The S&P 500 is down roughly 5% this week as investors brace for trade-driven earnings headwinds. Bitcoin, meanwhile, has shown impressive resilience,” David Hernandez, crypto investment specialist at 21Shares, told CoinDesk in an email. “After briefly dipping below $82,000, it rebounded quickly, reinforcing its status as a macro hedge in times of macroeconomic stress. Its relative strength could continue to attract institutional inflows if broad market volatility persists.”

The perception of stability could quickly transform into a self-fulfilling prophecy, solidifying BTC’s position as a haven asset for years to come, as MacroScope noted on X.

Treasury basis trade risks

However, sharp downside volatility in the short term cannot be ruled out, especially as the “Treasury market basis trade” faces risks due to heightened turbulence in bond prices.

The basis trade involves highly leveraged hedge funds, reportedly operating at leverage ratios of 50-to-1, exploiting minor price discrepancies between Treasury futures and securities. This trade blew up in mid-March 2020 as coronavirus threatened to derail the global economy, leading to a “dash for cash” that saw investors sell almost every asset for dollar liquidity. On March 12, 2020, BTC fell by nearly 40%.

“When market volatility spikes – as it is now – it unearths highly leveraged carry trades vulnerable to big market moves. The blowup in the US Treasury market in March 2020, which disrupted basis carry trades, is a recent example. Risk of leveraged carry trade blowups is high…,” Robin Brooks, managing director and chief economist at the International Institute of Finance,” wrote to CoinDesk in an email.

The risk is real because, the size of the basis trade as of March end was $1 trillion, double the tally in March 2020. The positioning is such that a one basis point move in Treasury yields (which move opposite to prices) would lead to a $600 million shift in the value of their bets, according to ZeroHedge.

So, increased volatility in the Treasury yields could cause a COVID-like blowup, leading to a widespread selling of all assets, including bitcoin, to obtain cash.

On Friday, the MOVE index, which represents the options-based implied or expected 30-day volatility in the U.S. Treasury market, jumped 12% to 125.70, the highest since Nov. 4, according to data source TradingView.

The gravity of the situation is underscored by a recent Brookings Institution paper, which advises the Federal Reserve to consider targeted interventions in the U.S. Treasury market, specifically supporting hedge funds engaged in basis trading during times of severe market stress.

Let’s see how things unfold in the week ahead.





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ALCH

Crypto Strategist Sees Solana-Based Memecoin Surging Higher, Says One AI Altcoin Flashing Strong Chart

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A closely followed crypto analyst believes one meme token operating on Solana (SOL) is in the early stages of a market recovery.

Pseudonymous analyst Altcoin Sherpa tells his 243,800 followers on the social media platform X that he’s bullish on the memecoin Bonk (BONK).

The trader shares a chart suggesting that BONK will face resistance at the $0.000012 level before printing a bullish higher low setup and rallying to his target above $0.0000145.

“BONK is looking strong in the short term, and should go higher. Should be a pullback around the 200 EMA (exponential moving average) on the four-hour chart but still, I think this has pulled back enough to where any buying down here is probably reasonable.”

Image
Source: Altcoin Sherpa/X

At time of writing, BONK is worth $0.00001376.

Turning to the low-cap altcoin Alchemist AI (ALCH), the analyst says the coin appears to be in an uptrend and that he’s waiting for potential dips to accumulate the asset.

ALCH is an artificial intelligence (AI)-based crypto project that allows users with no coding skills to generate codes by providing natural language descriptions.

Says Altcoin Sherpa,

“ALCH still seems like a really strong chart, don’t see it being mentioned much. I think it’s basically taken the place of ARC; a super volatile AI coin that moves 20% a day. Not in it but traded it a lot before; will look to buy dips.”

Image
Source: Altcoin Sherpa/X

At time of writing, ALCH is the 431st-largest crypto asset by market cap, trading at $0.109.

Looking at Bitcoin, Altcoin Sherpa thinks that BTC will continue to consolidate within a large trading range in the short to mid-term.

“Expecting there is some sort of chop between $70,000-$90,000 over the next several weeks for BTC. Relative bottom probably in, but still some more consolidation to come.”

Image
Source: Altcoin Sherpa/X

At time of writing, Bitcoin is trading for $85,366.

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

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Michael Saylor Hints At Another MicroStrategy Bitcoin Purchase, BTC Price To Rally?

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MicroStrategy is lacing up for a potential Bitcoin purchase after Michael Saylor flashed the tell-tale buy signal. The incoming purchase will be the company’s first in Q2 after pausing Bitcoin purchases at the start of April in an eyebrow-raising move.

Michael Saylor Flashes Bitcoin Buy Signal

MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor has dropped clues that the software company will continue its Bitcoin accumulation spree. In an X post, Saylor shared MicroStrategy’s portfolio tracker revealing the company’s Bitcoin holdings and valuations.

Michael Saylor’s previous posts sharing Microstrategy’s portfolio tracker over the weekend have resulted in purchases at the start of the week. Investors are lapping up Saylor’s portfolio tracker post and the accompanying caption as cues for a BTC purchase on Monday.

“No tariffs on Orange Dots,” said Saylor, taking a jibe at brewing tariff wars between the US and China.

MicroStrategy had previously halted its Bitcoin purchase spree at the start of April leading to a slump in MSTR price. At the time, there was significant chatter that MicroStrategy may be forced to offload its Bitcoin holdings to cover obligations following a dip in prices.

Per the portfolio tracker, MicroStrategy holds 528,185 BTC on its balance sheet valued at $44.7 billion. Michael Saylor hinting at a potential Bitcoin purchase follows a small dip in prices with BTC holding the $83K mark.

Will Bitcoin Price Rally?

Saylor’s hint at buying Bitcoin has triggered a small bump in prices as the top cryptocurrency surpassed $83K. However, an actual purchase will trigger a significant price action for BTC in line with previous accumulations.

MicroStrategy’s last Bitcoin purchase of 22,048 BTC jolted the markets in line with investors’ expectations. However, there are fears that macroeconomic events like the US-China tariff war may affect a potential BTC rally following MicroStrategy’s incoming purchase.

Bitcoin price has rebounded after a previous bloodbath, sparking fresh optimism in the markets. Crypto Joao Wedson predicts that Bitcoin is not out of the woods yet and a grim drop to $65K is still a possibility for the top cryptocurrency.

“We’re not ruling out the possibility of the price dipping below $65K, as several metrics point to that region as strong support – such as the True Market Mean Price and Alpha Price, both sitting exactly around $64,700,” said Wedson.

Crypto analyst Doctor Profit warns that a BTC price drop to these levels may force MicroStrategy to sell MSTR to avoid liquidation.

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Aliyu Pokima

Aliyu Pokima is a seasoned cryptocurrency and emerging technologies journalist with a knack for covering needle-moving stories in the space. Aliyu delivers breaking news stories, regulatory updates, and insightful analysis with depth and precision. When he’s not poring over charts or following leads, Aliyu enjoys playing the bass guitar, lifting weights and running marathons.

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.





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Bitcoin

Crypto Analyst Says Bitcoin Back in Business, Calls for BTC Uptrend if One Support Level Holds

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A crypto strategist who accurately called Bitcoin’s collapse below $80,000 believes that BTC’s long-term uptrend will remain intact if it stays above a key price area.

In a new strategy session, pseudonymous analyst Cheds tells his 49,800 YouTube subscribers that Bitcoin appears to have broken out of a W pattern on the four-hour chart.

A W pattern is typically seen as a bullish reversal structure, as it suggests that an asset has printed a price floor after bouncing from a key support level twice.

“We had a break of the W and then a throwback, a throwback being a bullish retest from above. This looks pretty conducive, and this type of price action tells me, ‘Okay, we might be front running $72,000.’

Giving me a little bit of a confidence was a shift in equities markets, and the idea that price was at the MA (moving average) 50, and that’s been support.”

Cheds also says that Bitcoin will likely see higher prices as long as its immediate support level between $78,500 and $81,000 holds.

“Regain $81,000 and we’re back in business… Back above $81,000, we’re back with the idea of regaining that low time frame pivot corresponding with the high time frame support at the MA50, and with the idea that the bulls are going to recapture the trend, which is the rising MA200.”

Image
Source: Cheds/X

At time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $85,301.

 

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

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