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Can Realized Cap HODL Waves Identify The Next Bitcoin Price Peak?

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Bitcoin’s cyclical nature has captivated investors for over a decade, and tools like the Realized Cap HODL Waves offer a window into the psychology of the market. As an adaptation of the traditional HODL waves, this indicator provides crucial insights by weighting age bands by the realized price—the cost basis of Bitcoin held in wallets at any given time.

Currently, the six-month-and-below band sits at ~55%, signaling a market with room to grow before reaching overheated levels historically seen around 80%. In this article, we’ll dive into the details of Realized Cap HODL Waves, what they tell us about the market, and how investors can use this tool to better navigate Bitcoin’s price cycles.

Click here to view the Realized Cap HODL Waves live chart on Bitcoin Magazine Pro.

Understanding Realized Cap HODL Waves

At its core, the Realized Cap HODL Waves chart shows the cost basis of Bitcoin held in wallets, grouped into different age brackets. Unlike traditional HODL waves, which track the total supply of Bitcoin, this chart accounts for the realized value—a measure of the price at which Bitcoin was last moved.

The key insight? Younger age bands (e.g., coins held for six months or less) tend to dominate during bullish phases, reflecting rising market optimism. Conversely, older age bands gain prominence during bearish phases, often coinciding with market bottoms when investor sentiment is subdued.

This dynamic allows the chart to serve as a barometer for market cycles, identifying periods of overheating or underpricing with remarkable accuracy.

Why 80% Is Critical: Historical Context

The chart reveals that when short-term holders—represented by the six-month-and-below age bands—make up 80% or more of the total realized cap, Bitcoin is often nearing a major market peak. This level historically aligns with euphoric price action, where speculative mania drives the market.

For example:

  • 2013 Bull Market: The six-month band surpassed 80% during Bitcoin’s meteoric rise, marking the peak of the cycle.
  • 2017 Bull Market: A similar pattern occurred as Bitcoin reached its then-all-time high of $20,000.
  • 2021 Bull Market: Peaks in the short-term bands preceded corrections, reinforcing the indicator’s predictive value.

At the current ~55% level, there is ample room for Bitcoin to grow before reaching the overheated territory historically seen near 80%.

What the Data Tells Us Today

The latest Chart of the Day, shared by Bitcoin Magazine Pro, underscores the importance of this indicator. Here are the key takeaways:

  • Room for Growth: With the six-month-and-below bands at 55%, the market appears to be in a healthy growth phase with significant upside potential.
  • No Overheating Yet: Historically, overheating occurs when these bands exceed 80%. This suggests Bitcoin has room to run before encountering similar conditions.
  • Cycle Perspective: The current cycle aligns with early-to-mid-stage bull market behavior, where newer investors are accumulating, and optimism is building.

The ETF Effect: How Bitcoin ETFs Could Impact Realized Cap HODL Waves

Unlike previous Bitcoin cycles, 2024 marks a significant shift with the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs. These financial products, designed to provide institutional and retail investors easy exposure to Bitcoin, have the potential to reshape the on-chain data reported by tools like Realized Cap HODL Waves. While this indicator has historically been a reliable measure of market cycles and price peaks, the dynamics of this cycle may differ.

Bitcoin ETFs aggregate investments from numerous participants into centralized custodial wallets, reducing the number of active on-chain addresses and transactions. This centralization introduces unique challenges when interpreting Realized Cap HODL Waves:

  • Younger Age Bands May Underestimate Market Activity: ETF trading occurs off-chain, meaning that short-term transactions and active addresses might be underrepresented in the six-month-and-below bands. As a result, the indicator could suggest less market enthusiasm than is actually present.
  • Older Age Bands May Dominate: Long-term Bitcoin holdings within ETFs could shift realized value into higher age bands, making it appear that the market is more conservative and less dynamic than in previous cycles.

While ETFs bring increased liquidity and price discovery through traditional markets, they also introduce complexities for on-chain analysis. This shift highlights the importance of adapting how we interpret indicators like Realized Cap HODL Waves in the context of evolving market structures.

Why This Cycle May Be Different

With Bitcoin ETFs now playing a central role, this cycle may not follow the same patterns as previous ones. The historical success of Realized Cap HODL Waves in identifying price peaks remains noteworthy, but investors should consider that ETFs represent a new variable. Increased adoption via ETFs could lead to more significant price movements that are less directly visible in on-chain data.

As always, it’s crucial not to rely solely on one indicator for investment decisions. Tools like Realized Cap HODL Waves are best used to supplement broader market analysis, providing valuable insights into underlying market trends. By combining on-chain indicators with ETF inflow data and other metrics, investors can gain a clearer and more comprehensive understanding of Bitcoin’s price dynamics in this new era.

How Investors Can Use Realized Cap HODL Waves

For investors, the Realized Cap HODL Waves chart offers actionable insights:

  • Market Sentiment: Use the six-month band as a gauge of market euphoria or fear. Higher percentages indicate bullish sentiment, while lower percentages often signal consolidation or accumulation phases.
  • Cycle Timing: Peaks in younger age bands often precede corrections. Monitoring these levels can help investors manage risk during bullish cycles.
  • Strategic Positioning: Understanding when the market is overheating can help long-term holders optimize their exit strategies, while buyers may find opportunities during periods dominated by older age bands.

Conclusion: Bullish Outlook with Room to Run

The Realized Cap HODL Waves chart is an invaluable tool for understanding Bitcoin’s price cycles. With the six-month-and-below bands currently at 55%, the market shows plenty of upside potential before hitting overheated levels. For investors, this means the current phase offers an attractive opportunity to capitalize on Bitcoin’s growth trajectory.

As always, it’s crucial to combine this indicator with other tools and fundamental analysis. To explore more live data and stay updated on Bitcoin’s price action, visit Bitcoin Magazine Pro.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.





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Altcoin Season

End of Altcoin Season? Glassnode Co-Founders Warn Alts in Danger of Lagging Behind After Last Week’s Correction

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The creators of the crypto analytics firm Glassnode are warning that altcoins could lose all bullish momentum following last week’s market correction.

Jan Happel and Yann Allemann, who go by the handle Negentropic on the social media platform X, tell their 63,400 followers that “altcoin season,” which they say began in late November, could come to an abrupt end after alts witnessed deep pullbacks over the last seven days.

According to the Glassnode co-founders, traders and investors will likely have a risk-off approach on altcoins unless Bitcoin recovers a key psychological price point.

“Is This the End of Altcoin Season?

Bitcoin dominance is surging after dipping below $100,000, while altcoins are losing critical supports. Dominance has risen and resumed its upward trend, signaling a stronger BTC environment.

If BTC stabilizes above $100,00, we might see a pump in altcoins now in accumulation zones. Until then, Bitcoin appears poised to lead, leaving altcoins lagging behind.”

Image
Source: Negentropic/X

The Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) chart tracks how much of the total crypto market cap belongs to BTC. In the current state of the market, a surging BTC.D suggests that altcoins are losing value faster than Bitcoin.

At time of writing, BTC.D is hovering at 59%.

Looking at Bitcoin itself, the Glassnode executives say long-term Bitcoin holders are massively unloading their holdings as other investor cohorts pick up the slack.

“The Board Keeps Shifting. 

As BTC continues flowing out of exchanges during this dip, long-term holders are exiting forcefully, while short-term holders step in without hesitation.

Whales quietly accumulate, miners remain neutral, and selling pressure has merely reshuffled the board.

New hands are absorbing the sales.”

Image
Source: Negentropic/X

At time of writing, Bitcoin is worth $97,246.

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

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Altcoins

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan Predicts Institutional Interest in Altcoins, Says 2025 the Year of Crypto Diversification

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Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan says a wave of institutional interest in altcoins is coming next year, largely due to potential regulatory clarity and more exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

In a new interview with Bloomberg, Hougan says that institutional money is in the early stages of broadening out to other crypto assets besides just Bitcoin (BTC).

Hougan forecasts that 2025 will be the year that institutional investors will begin to incorporate more diversification in their crypto-investing strategies the same way they do in other asset classes like equities or bonds.

“You’re already seeing it broaden out actually. A lot of people were worried about the Ethereum ETFs for instance, which launched this summer and had tepid inflows.

But over the last month or so, you’ve seen billions of dollars flow into those products.

Again, the things that have happened in crypto in the past keep happening. Historically, most people enter crypto through Bitcoin, and then they discover Ethereum, and then they think about Solana. There’s no reason to assume that the institutions that came into Bitcoin won’t move on to other assets in the future. 

In fact, I think in 2025, you’re going to see an explosion of interest in index space strategies that give diversified exposure to crypto. Of course, [that is] something we’ve been doing at Bitwise since 2017 when we pioneered that concept. I think 2025 is when that becomes a mainstream way to allocate to this space, the same way it is to stocks and bonds and real estate and everything else.”

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Bitcoin

Microsoft says ‘no’ to Bitcoin, corporates say ‘bring it on’

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Microsoft shareholders nixed a Bitcoin treasury idea, but other big-name companies disagree with this strategy. Here’s why.

Bitcoin (BTC) is often likened to “digital gold,” with its fixed supply of 21 million coins making it a potential hedge against currency devaluation and inflation.

And nowadays, Bitcoin’s unique characteristics make it an attractive addition to corporate treasuries. It can balance exposure to traditional assets like cash, stocks, and bonds.

Bitcoin is also one of the most liquid assets globally, and its historical performance has shown significant long-term value appreciation — it reached an all-time high of over $108,000 on Dec. 17.

But there’s no shortage of risks.

A board might avoid adopting a Bitcoin treasury due to the coin’s extreme price volatility, which can lead to substantial losses during downturns. Also, regulatory uncertainties pose potential threats as governments refine crypto policies. Additionally, liquidity challenges during market slumps can amplify price drops when offloading assets.

So it’s no wonder that, on Dec. 10, Microsoft’s board channeled the long-standing crypto skepticism of its co-founder, Bill Gates, and recommended ditching the proposa for a Bitcoin trasury. Gates himself has famously dismissed crypto as “100% based on greater fool theory” — ouch.

Bitcoin evangelist and MicroStrategy Chairman Michael Saylor was busy trying to woo Microsoft when he touted Bitcoin’s own meteoric returns and bragged about MicroStrategy’s stock soaring after their BTC splurge. His pitch? Bitcoin could boost Microsoft’s market cap while acting as a financial guardian angel.

Microsoft’s response? No, thanks.

Meanwhile, at least 10 other companies are embracing the MicroStrategy playbook.

Genius Group

Genius Group, an AI-powered education group, announced in November that it had completed the purchase of 110 Bitcoin for $10 million, at an average price of $90,932 per Bitcoin. The purchase made good on a promise to employ what it called a “Bitcoin-first” strategy where it planed to commit 90% or more of its current and future reserves to be held in Bitcoin, with an initial target of $120 million in Bitcoin.

Earlier this month, the company bolstered its Bitcoin treasury by acquiring 194 Bitcoin worth $18 million at an average price of $92,728 per Bitcoin.

Genius Group CEO Roger Hamilton credited Saylor’s Bitcoin treasury plan for the inspiration, adding that “more companies will see the benefits of establishing a Bitcoin treasury, and will be equipped with the clear steps to follow.”

Worksport

Worksport, a U.S.-based provider of pickup truck solutions, is adding cyptocurency to its corporate treasury strategy.

The Nasdaq-listed company announced on Dec. 5 that it would be adding Bitcoin (BTC) and XRP (XRP) to its treasury assets. This follows a resolution by the company’s board of directors, which approved an initial purchase of $5 million worth of BTC and XRP.

Worksport is committing 10% of its excess operational cash to this corporate pivot, it said in the announcement.

“Our upcoming adoption of Bitcoin (BTC) and XRP (Ripple) reflects our commitment to staying ahead of market trends while prioritizing operational efficiency and shareholder value. As we expand our product offerings and global reach, cryptocurrency has the potential to be a strong strategic complement,” Steven Rossi, chief executive officer of Worksport, said.

Amazon

Amazon shareholders, led by the National Center for Public Policy Research, are urging the Seattle-based company’s board to assess the potential benefits of adding Bitcoin to the company’s financial strategy.

The proposal, submitted on Dec. 6, aims to explore whether Bitcoin could protect and enhance shareholder value, especially amid persistent inflation and declining yields from traditional assets.

The National Center emphasizes Bitcoin’s robust performance—131% growth in the past year and 1,246% over five years—as evidence of its potential as an inflation hedge and a growth asset. The initiative also highlights concerns about the diminishing purchasing power of Amazon’s $88 billion cash reserves due to average inflation of 4.95% over the past four years.

This move represents a broader trend of shareholder proposals influencing corporate policies, leveraging shareholder rights to advocate for financial strategies that address economic risks and enhance long-term value.

MicroStrategy

Perhaps the most vocal of all Bitcoin fans is MicroStrategy’s Saylor who, as of this past week, increased the company’s total holdings to 439,000.

As a result, Saylor has officially strengthening MicroStrategy’s position as the top corporate BTC holder, considering it a long-term store of value.

Saylor, during an appearance on the Dec. 18 episode of the Open Interest show on Bloomberg Television, even voiced his willingness to advise President-elect Donald Trump on crafting a digital assets policy for the U.S.

But Saylor continues to draw scrutiny: Analyst Jacob King has labeled MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin-focused business model a “giant scam,” claiming it is unsustainable and destined for collapse.

Marathon Digital Holdings

As one of the largest Bitcoin mining companies, Marathon owns 44,394 BTC. Its business model revolves entirely around mining and holding Bitcoin as part of its assets​.

Back in July, the company confirmed it will adopt “a full HODL approach” towards its Bitcoin treasury policy, retaining all that it mines within its operations, in addition to its open market purchases.

“Adopting a full HODL strategy reflects our confidence in the long-term value of bitcoin,” CEO Fred Thiel stated. “We believe bitcoin is the world’s best treasury reserve asset and support the idea of sovereign wealth funds holding it. We encourage governments and corporations to all hold bitcoin as a reserve asset.”

Tesla

Tesla initially bought $1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin in 2021 and currently holds 9,720 BTC. While the Elon Musk-led company remains a significant corporate holder​.

BitcoinTreasuries data shows that Tesla is the fourth-largest holder of Bitcoin among U.S. public companies with crypto treasuries (MicroStrategy, MARA Holdings and Riot Platforms are believed to hold more).

In October, the electric vehicle company reportedly moved $765 million worth of Bitcoin to unidentified wallets.

Coinbase

The cryptocurrency exchange holds 9,480 BTC as part of its reserves, leveraging its position as a major player in the digital asset ecosystem​.

The Brian Armstrong-led firm holds large amounts of Bitcoin as an exchange and converter. It’s also a trusted institution for custody services, and counts the Bitcoin ETF coterie of BlackRock, Grayscale, 21Shares, Invesco, Valkyrie, Wisdom Tree and Franklin Templeton among its clients.

Therefore, Coinbase has a Bitcoin treasury for itself and oversees others.

Hut 8 Mining Corp

On Thursday, crypto.news reported that Hut 8, a Bitcoin mining company, added 990 Bitcoin to its reserves.

The company spent roughly $100 million to increase its total holdings to 10,096 BTC. The reserve, now valued at over $1 billion, places Hut 8 among the largest corporate Bitcoin holders globally.

The company, under the guidance of CEO Asher Genoot, purchased the coins at an average price of $101,710, significantly higher than its cumulative acquisition cost of $24,484 per Bitcoin.

Block Inc.

The startup (formerly Square) holds 8,027 BTC as part of its strategy to integrate Bitcoin into mainstream finance.

The Jack Dorsey-founded company is so bullish on Bitcoin that, last month, it confirmed a company-wide pivot towards the cryptocurrency mining sector.

Block decided to dial down resources towards music streaming service TIDAL, and sunset TBD, a venture focusing on decentralizing the internet, to focus on expanding its presence in the Bitcoin mining sector.

Block acquired TIDAL in a 2021 acquisition for roughly $300 million. The platform has continued to struggle, with reports indicating workforce reductions and a $132.3 million impairment charge.

OneMedNet

OneMedNet Corp., as of Nov. 12, owns some 34 Bitcoins.

Off The Chain Capital, an investor in OneMedNet, was also inspired by Saylor, betting that Bitcoin isn’t just a hedge but a springboard for its healthcare data innovation.

Aaron Green, the company’s CEO, stated, “By continuing to invest a portion of our assets into Bitcoin, we aim to not only safeguard our financial stability but also fuel the ongoing development and innovation within our iRWD platform.”





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