Wintermute plans to foray into the on-chain prediction market, with its first betting pool focused on the U.S. presidential elections.

The crypto trading firm and market maker Wintermute disclosed ongoing work on an on-chain betting platform, OutcomeMarket. The decentralized protocol will utilize Oracle technology from Chaos Labs to handle pricing and risk management.

According to the announcement, Wintermute’s prediction platform will launch with two tokens: TRUMP and HARRIS, representing the Republican and Democratic U.S. presidential candidates.

OutcomeMarket is said to debut on major blockchain networks like Ethereum (ETH), Coinbase’s Base, and layer-2 chain Arbitrum (ARB). The web3 startup added that tokens will appear across decentralized finance ecosystems and exchanges to better the trading experience.

Tokens via OutcomeMarket will be usable in DeFi and listed on multiple trading venues, expanding utility and improving accessibility for a broader audience

Wintermute on new U.S. election prediction platform

Wintermute eyes Polymarket’s arena, but CFTC oversight looms

Wintermute’s latest venture could look to take market share from Polymarket, one of the largest on-chain outcome betting platforms, with over $1 billion in election-related wagers.

Bloomberg integrated Polymarket’s election data into its terminal, further legitimizing decentralized prediction markets. This collaboration occurred despite regulations preventing U.S. bettors from using Polymarket.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has taken a firm stance against election betting contracts, arguing that big-money wagers may influence outcomes.

CFTC lawyers attempted to delay Kalshi from listing its prediction market, but a judge overruled it. Still, the regulator continues to challenge Kalshi in court.

In a Sept. 17 speech at Georgetown University, CFTC chair Rostin Behnam said the watchdog would also scrutinize offshore betting platforms with U.S. users. Behnam emphasized that the agency’s proposed ban on prediction markets is part of a fight against what it views as illegal activity and market manipulation.

Kalshi, which won a significant victory in court last week when a federal judge ruled its political prediction markets should be allowed to trade in the U.S., said the CFTC wouldn’t suffer any major harm if its new contracts were allowed to trade during the appeal process, but the company would “suffer substantial – indeed, irreparable – harm” if it’s blocked from letting people bet on the outcome of the 2024 elections.