The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has just granted approval for the listing and trading of options on BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF, the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT).

The approved options on the iShares Bitcoin Trust will be physically settled, meaning that when the option is exercised, Bitcoin will be delivered to fulfill the contract. These American-style options can be exercised at any time before the expiration date, providing flexibility for traders. According to the SEC, the listing will follow the same rules as options on other exchange-traded funds (ETFs), including position limits and margin requirements.

“I’m assuming others will be approved in short order,” said Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas. “Huge win for the the bitcoin ETFs (as it will attract more liquidity which will in turn attract more big fish). This is nice surprise re timing but not a shocker as James Seyffart and I gave 70% odds of approval by end of May.”

The SEC highlighted that this approval would allow investors to hedge their positions on Bitcoin, using the options market to mitigate the inherent volatility of BTC. The iShares Bitcoin Trust has been the most liquid spot Bitcoin ETF, which helped meet the requirements for trading options. The SEC also emphasized that extensive surveillance mechanisms would be in place to monitor potential market manipulation and ensure orderly trading.

“IBIT is the most liquid spot Bitcoin ETF and the 11th most liquid ETF in the U.S. by average volume (34,825,921 shares) and 18th largest by average notional ($1,246,060,738),” stated the SEC. “As of May 22, 2023, IBIT had approximately 193,956 shareholders.”

This approval by the SEC continues the trend of expanding regulated financial products based on Bitcoin, pushing it closer to full integration within the global financial system. The ability to trade options on a spot Bitcoin ETF provides new opportunities for institutional investors who wish to engage with the Bitcoin market while maintaining a higher level of risk management.

“Important note: This is just one stage of approval, the OCC and CFTC has to approve as well before they officially list,” Balchunas continued. “The other two don’t have a ‘clock’ so not sure when they’ll be approved. A big step tho nonetheless that the SEC came around.”

As the U.S. presidential election approaches, it’s worth examining how past elections have influenced Bitcoin’s price. Historically, the U.S. stock market has shown notable trends around election periods. Given Bitcoin’s correlation with equities and, most notably, the S&P 500, these trends could offer insights into what might happen next.

S&P 500 Correlation

Bitcoin and the S&P 500 have historically held a strong correlation, particularly during BTC’s bull cycles and periods of a risk-on sentiment throughout traditional markets. This could phenomenon could potentially come to an end as Bitcoin matures and ‘decouples’ from equities and it’s narrative as a speculative asset. However there’s no evidence yet that this is the case.

Post Election Outperformance

The S&P 500 has typically reacted positively following U.S. presidential elections. This pattern has been consistent over the past few decades, with the stock market often experiencing significant gains in the year following an election. In the S&P500 vs Bitcoin YoY Change chart we can see when elections occur (orange circles), and the price action of BTC (black line) and the S&P 500 (blue line) in the months that follow.

2012 Election: In November 2012, the S&P 500 saw 11% year-on-year growth. A year later, this growth surged to around 32%, reflecting a strong post-election market rally.

2016 Election: In November 2016, the S&P 500 was up by about 7% year-on-year. A year later, it had increased by approximately 22%, again showing a substantial post-election boost.

2020 Election: The pattern continued in 2020. The S&P 500’s growth was around 17-18% in November 2020; by the following year, it had climbed to nearly 29%.

A Recent Phenomenon?

This isn’t limited to the previous three elections while Bitcoin existed. To get a larger data set, we can look at the previous four decades, or ten elections, of S&P 500 returns. Only one year had negative returns twelve months following election day (2000, as the dot-com bubble burst).

Historical data suggests that whether Republican or Democrat, the winning party doesn’t significantly impact these positive market trends. Instead, the upward momentum is more about resolving uncertainty and boosting investor confidence.

How Will Bitcoin React This Time

As we approach the 2024 U.S. presidential election, it’s tempting to speculate on Bitcoin’s potential performance. If historical trends hold, we could see significant price increases. For example:

If we experience the same percentage gains in the 365 days following the election as we did in 2012, Bitcoin’s price could rise to $1,000,000 or more. If we experience the same as the 2016 election, we could climb to around $500,000, and something similar to 2020 could see a $250,000 BTC.

It’s interesting to note that each occurrence has resulted in returns decreasing by about 50% each time, so maybe $125,000 is a realistic target for November 2025, especially as that price and data align with the middle bands of the Rainbow Price Chart. It’s also worth noting that in all of those cycles, Bitcoin actually went on to experience even higher cycle peak gains!

Conclusion

The data suggests that the period after a U.S. presidential election is generally bullish for both the stock market and Bitcoin. With less than two months until the next election, Bitcoin investors may have reason to be optimistic about the months ahead.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here: Will The U.S. Election Be Bullish For Bitcoin?