Bitcoin’s next major leg higher may depend less on halving lore and more on personnel politics in Washington. In an August 18 market note on X, economist and crypto analyst Alex Krüger argued that the cycle’s duration will be set by the Federal Reserve’s leadership change—specifically, who President Trump nominates to replace Jerome Powell—rather than by any fixed four-year pattern. “I have a high degree of confidence this cycle is not over because I am expecting changes in the Fed to bring on considerably more dovish monetary policy, which is not priced in at the moment; this would start to get priced in once Trump announces his nominee to replace Powell,” Krüger wrote.

Bitcoin Bull Run Depends On New Fed Chair

Krüger dismissed worries that a pullback from record highs marks the top, calling it “remarkable how every time you get a correction from new highs so many people start to fret about the cycle top. Over and over again.” He reiterated his longstanding critique of the halving-cycle orthodoxy: “The concept of a 4 year cycle in 2025 is misplaced; [it] died two cycles ago, and 2021 was a coincidence, as it was macro driven.” In his view, the last cycle ended because the Fed turned “ultra-hawkish in January 2022,” not because of any endogenous Bitcoin dynamic.

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The nomination clock is visible. Powell’s current four-year term as chair ends on May 15, 2026, and reporting over the past two weeks indicates the White House has narrowed a shortlist to “three or four” names, with an announcement potentially coming sooner than expected. Candidates floated in mainstream coverage include former Fed governor Kevin Warsh and NEC Director Kevin Hassett among others, underscoring the market’s focus on how dovish—or not—the next chair might be.

In the nearer term, the policy calendar still drives the tape. Powell’s final Jackson Hole appearance, scheduled during the Aug. 21–23 symposium, is widely framed as a tone-setting moment before the September FOMC. Consensus coverage flags the risk that Powell leans hawkish to preserve optionality, even as rates markets handicap a cut next month; Krüger leans “slightly bearish into it as a hawkish speech (to reduce the odds of a September cut) makes sense, for the Fed to retain optionality and not let the market push itself into a corner.”

Technically, Bitcoin has cooled after printing fresh all-time highs in mid-July and again last week. Traders are watching the previous $112,000 high as initial downside cushion, with the psychologically critical $100,000 level, the overhead reference remains the $122,000–$124,000 zone of recent peaks. Krüger also highlights that “BTC is having a very hard time going up sans leverage without triggers,” a point echoed by derivatives signals showing compressed risk appetite.

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Derivatives and volatility gauges corroborate the “low-vol, slow ascent” regime he describes. Implied volatility on BTC options (DVOL/BVIV) has sat near two-year lows, and open interest on institutional venues remains off July highs, signaling a more measured stance from levered players into Jackson Hole. Krüger also observed that futures basis had eased alongside the pullback—a classic sign of froth leaking out—while options markets show a renewed bid for downside protection on dips.

The macro through-line is straightforward: if the Fed chair nomination tilts dovish, markets will begin discounting a looser stance well before the first policy move, extending the cycle; if the candidate (and subsequent guidance) skews restrictive, the liquidity impulse that powered Bitcoin’s post-ETF advance will fade at the margin.

For now, the immediate catalysts are stacked—Powell at Jackson Hole, followed by PCE, NFP, CPI and PPI into September’s FOMC—while price trades between well-defined levels with volatility suppressed. As Krüger put it, bull markets “don’t end because of valuations or over-extension; the end needs a major trigger.” In 2025, that trigger may well be a name.

At press time, BTC traded at $115,683.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

The capital raised from its landmark merger with Nakamoto is now on the blockchain. KindlyMD has executed its inaugural Bitcoin purchase, converting $679 million of its PIPE proceeds into the original crypto and signaling its intent to rival other corporate treasuries that now measure reserves in BTC.

On August 19, KindlyMD, Inc. announced its wholly owned subsidiary, Nakamoto Holdings, had acquired 5,743.91 Bitcoin (BTC) for approximately $679 million. The purchase, executed at a weighted average price of $118,204.88 per BTC, is the company’s first since it formally completed its strategic merger with the Bitcoin-native holding company just days prior.

This initial deployment of capital from the merger’s $540 million PIPE financing immediately boosts KindlyMD’s total holdings to 5,764.91 BTC, positioning it as the 16^th largest corporate holder of the benchmark digital asset, according to BitcoinTreasuries.Net data.

A new ambitious player in the corporate Bitcoin race

The scale of KindlyMD’s first Bitcoin purchase is merely a down payment on an almost unprecedented corporate ambition. According to its official statement, the company’s long term mission is to acquire one million Bitcoin under the Nakamoto Bitcoin Treasury initiative.

This staggering target, valued at over $115 billion at current prices, is predicated on a belief that Bitcoin will fundamentally anchor the next era of global finance. The company’s leadership has made it clear that this is not a speculative trade, but a strategic overhaul of its treasury management.

“This acquisition reinforces our conviction in Bitcoin as the ultimate reserve asset for corporations and institutions alike,” David Bailey, Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Company, said. “Our long-term mission of accumulating one million Bitcoin reflects our belief that Bitcoin will anchor the next era of global finance, and we are committed to building the most trusted and transparent vehicle to achieve that future.”

The competition

KindlyMD’s aggressive pivot to Bitcoin comes amid a growing wave of corporate treasuries anchored in the world’s largest crypto asset by market cap. The scale of its ambition is what truly sets it apart.

If achieved, its one million BTC goal would dwarf nearly every other corporate holder. It would place the company in the same stratosphere as Michael Saylor’s Strategy, which held 629,376 BTC as of press time.

Other notable holders, such as Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company, Metaplanet Inc., and Trump Media and Technology Group Corp., with 30,021 BTC, 18,888 BTC, and 150,000 BTC respectively, would be left in its wake. Even the much discussed venture Twenty One, backed by Tether, Bitfinex, Cantor Fitzgerald, and SoftBank with its 43,500 BTC, pales in comparison to KindlyMD’s ultimate objective.