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Definition of a Bull Market Playing Out As Long-Term Holders Offload Coins, According to CryptoQuant CEO

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CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju says that Bitcoin (BTC) is currently displaying classic bull market behavior on-chain.

Ki tells his 400,500 followers on the social media platform X that short-term BTC holders are entering the market, scooping up long-term holders’ coins.

Short-term BTC holders are investors who have held their coins for less than 155 days while long-term holders are those who have kept their coins inactive for 155 days or more.

According to the chief executive of the analytics firm, the transfer of BTC from long-term to short-term holders is something typically seen in previous bull markets.

“Trump promoted Bitcoin globally.

Short-term holders keep entering, while long-term holders are offloading.

If you know, you know – this is the definition of a bull market.”

Image
Source: Ki Young Ju/X

Citing CryptoQuant data, Ki also says that larger BTC investors with at least one whole coin are gobbling up Bitcoin while smaller entities with less than a coin are offloading.

“Bitcoin retail investors with <1 BTC are selling, while the others with 1 [or more] BTC are buying.”

Source: Ki Young Ju/X

Ki says it’s possible that with President Trump’s “global promotional impact,” the bull run could be extended by “another couple of quarters” longer than usual, perhaps into 2026.

“Typical BTC distribution:
Whales —-> Retail Investors

This cycle:
Retail Investors (OG) + Whales (OG) —-> Retail Investors (Paper Bitcoins) + Whales (Institutions)
———-

OGs leave footprints through on-chain activity and crypto exchanges, while paper Bitcoin (ETFs, corporate stocks) leaves custody wallet on-chain footprints at settlement.

———-
Final phase of distribution:
Retail Investors (OG) + Whales (OG) + Whales (Institutions) —-> Retail Investors (Paper Bitcoins)
———-

I expect this won’t happen until at least mid-year. It might even extend into next year.”

At time of writing, Bitcoin is worth $98,847.

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

Generated Image: Midjourney





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Bitcoin Funding Rates Flip Negative as Nasdaq Futures Tank 700 Points

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Bitcoin (BTC) market sentiment has turned bearish, with Wall Street’s tech-heavy Nasdaq futures trading 700 points lower. The risk aversion is driven by concerns that the cost-effective Chinese artificial intelligence startup DeepSeek could significantly challenge U.S. technological dominance.

Bitcoin’s perpetual futures funding rates, periodic payments made between long and short positions in perpetual futures contracts, have flipped negative, according to data source Velo Data. It’s a sign of more bearish sentiment in the market - traders are chasing short positions in anticipation of lower prices.

The leading cryptocurrency by market value has dropped over 3% since early Asian hours, reaching lows under $98,000 at one point, according to CoinDesk data. Futures tied to Nasdaq have dropped over 3.5%, with NVIDIA, the bell-wether for all things AI, down 10% in pre-market trading.

“Today’s sell-off comes after President Donald Trump last week gave the green light to a working group on crypto policy that notably stopped short of confirming that the US would set up a bitcoin reserve. Meanwhile, Chinese artificial intelligence startup DeepSeek appears to have spooked tech stocks as its success suggests it is possible to build AI models that cost less than AI incumbents in the U.S.,” Petr Kozyakov, co-founder and CEO at Mercuryo, said in an email.

Historically, however, the negative flip in funding rates has tended to mark local price bottoms. Besides, there is always a risk of a short squeeze – bears throwing in the towel and squaring off their bets, putting upward pressure on prices. That said, the funding rate has narrowly flipped bearish, meaning its too early to call short BTC as an overcrowded trade.





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Bitcoin dips below $102,000: Crypto faces resilience test

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Bitcoin’s trajectory is rarely a smooth one, and its latest tumble is in stark contrast to what investors and traders expected on the heels of President Donald Trump’s inauguration.

At last check, Bitcoin (BTC) traded at just above $101,000 Sunday night — down 3%.

The Trump factor

Bitcoin enthusiasts were optimistic as Trump began his second term as president, anticipating a wave of pro-crypto policies. Yet, the inauguration speech lacked any nod to digital assets, and the market took notice.

Investors who had bet on a crypto-friendly administration were left disappointed, prompting a wave of sell-offs.

Adding fuel to the fire, a pair of meme coins tied to the Trump brand — dubbed Official Trump (TRUMP) and “Melania” — entered the market with a burst of enthusiasm, only to crash spectacularly.

The Trump token halved in value just days after its debut, while the Melania coin fared even worse, losing 74% of its worth. These flashy but short-lived ventures added instability to an already jittery market.

Economic crosswinds

Meanwhile, robust economic data from the U.S. played a dual role. While the strong performance of traditional markets offered reassurance to some investors, it also diverted capital away from riskier assets like cryptocurrencies. The interplay of these macroeconomic forces further compounded Bitcoin’s struggles.

Glimmers of hope

Despite the turbulence, Bitcoin still holds significant value, trading above $100,000—a level many would have deemed improbable just a few years ago.

In the long term, optimism remains. Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, and other crypto bulls and firms that offer exchange-traded funds (ETFs) envision a monumental surge.

Fink predicted Bitcoin could soar to $700,000 as institutional investors deepen their foray into crypto.

What’s next?

For now, the crypto market faces a crucial test of resilience. While Bitcoin’s downturn has shaken confidence, the broader community remains steadfast, seeing these fluctuations as par for the course.

At press time, Bitcoin is valued at approximately $101,477. See below.

Source: CoinGecko



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Bitcoin Deep Dive Data Analysis & On-Chain Roundup

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Bitcoin appears poised for significant upside movement following a strong start to 2025. However, questions remain about the market’s overall health and whether the current bullish momentum can be sustained over the coming weeks and months. Here, we’ll take an unbiased and data-driven look into the underlying numbers supporting our current trend.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here: Bitcoin Data Driven Analysis & On-Chain Roundup

Miner Recovery

The Puell Multiple, a measure comparing miners’ daily USD revenue to its yearly average, suggests that Bitcoin’s fundamental network strength remains strong. Historically, after a halving event, miner revenue experiences a significant dip due to the 50% block reward reduction. However, the Puell Multiple recently climbed above the key value of 1, indicating a recovery and a potentially bullish phase.

Figure 1: Puell Multiple is at comparable levels to previous cycles just prior to rapid price increases.

View Live Chart 🔍

Previous cycles show that crossing and retesting the value of 1 often precedes major price rallies. This pattern is repeating, signaling strong market support from mining activity.

Substantial Upside Potential

The MVRV Z-Score, a metric analyzing Bitcoin’s market value relative to its realized value, or average accumulation price for all BTC, suggests current values remain well below historical peak regions, outlining considerable room for growth.

Figure 2: MVRV Z-Score signifies significant remaining upside potential.

View Live Chart 🔍

A two-year rolling version of the MVRV Z-Score, which adjusts for evolving market dynamics, also shows bullish potential. Even by this adjusted measure, Bitcoin is far from previous cycle peak levels, leaving the door open for further price appreciation.

Figure 3: MVRV Z-Score 2YR shows a similar perspective to the standard data.

View Live Chart 🔍

Related: We’re Repeating The 2017 Bitcoin Bull Cycle

Sustainable Sentiment

The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index is currently at a healthy and sustainable amount of Greedy sentiment, indicating greedy but sustainable sentiment. Historical data from the 2020-2021 bull cycle shows that greed levels around 80-90 can persist for months, supporting prolonged bullish momentum. Only when values approach extreme levels (95+) does the market typically face significant corrections.

Figure 4: Fear & Greed shows sustainably bullish sentiment.

View Live Chart 🔍

Network Activity

The Active Address Sentiment Indicator reveals a slight dip in network activity, suggesting retail investors have yet to fully re-enter the market. However, this could be a positive sign, indicating untapped retail demand that might fuel the next leg of the rally.

Figure 5: Active Address Sentiment shows we’re potentially short-term overbought.

View Live Chart 🔍

Risk Appetite Shifts

Traditional market sentiment is showing improving signals. High Yield Credit appetite is increasing as the macro-economic environment shifts to a more risk-on outlook. Looking at corporate bonds that offer higher interest rates due to their lower credit ratings compared to investment-grade bonds. Historically, there has been a strong correlation between Bitcoin’s performance and periods of heightened global risk appetite, which have often aligned with bullish phases in Bitcoin’s price.

Figure 6: The High Yield Credit cycle is shifting to a more risk-on sentiment.

View Live Chart 🔍

Related: What Bitcoin Price History Predicts for February 2025

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s on-chain metrics, market sentiment, and macro perspective all point to a continuation of the current bull market. While short-term volatility is always possible, the convergence of these indicators suggests that Bitcoin is well-positioned to reach and potentially surpass our current all-time high in the near future.

For more detailed Bitcoin analysis and to access advanced features like live charts, personalized indicator alerts, and in-depth industry reports, check out Bitcoin Magazine Pro.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.



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