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Donald Trump US Election Odds Hit New ATH, Analysts Eye Crypto Bill Approvals

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3 hours ago

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As the U.S. election nears, Donald Trump’s lead over Vice President Kamala Harris has reached new highs on Polymarket, registering a 66.7% chance of winning. With the possibility of a “Republican trifecta” in the presidency, Senate, and House, analysts predict that the chances for crypto-friendly legislation could increase. 

In recent weeks, these odds have drawn attention, rising from 28% to 48%, according to Polymarket data.

Donald Trump’s Odds Spark Optimism for Crypto Regulation Reforms

Analysts from Presto report that the odds of a Republican sweep in the US Election have reached 48% on Polymarket. This projected outcome would give the GOP control over the legislative and executive branches, heightening the chances for passing crypto-friendly laws. Notably, six crypto-related bills, including the FIT21 market structure bill, have already passed the House and await Senate approval. 

A Republican Senate, analysts believe, could bring favorable changes to regulatory frameworks that have delayed progress in the digital assets sector. Most recently, Consensys had to cut 20% of its workforce, impacting 162 employees, due to regulatory challenges posed by the U.S. SEC 

However, as odds for Donald Trump surge, his lead over Kamala Harris on Polymarket has hit an all-time high at 66.7%, while the GOP’s odds of controlling the Senate stand at 83% and 51% for the House. Analysts argue that these rising numbers on Polymarket show growing market confidence in Trump’s chances to implement pro-crypto policies.

Bitcoin and Crypto Markets React to US Election Predictions

Amid heightened speculations, Bitcoin price has soared past the $73,000 mark, closing in on the previous all-time high. Many investors attribute this crypto market surge to the anticipation of a Donald Trump win, which could lead to clearer crypto regulations. 

Concurrently, Spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted substantial inflows since early October, with nearly $4 billion invested, as demand for direct exposure to Bitcoin increased.

Beyond Bitcoin, other cryptocurrency-related equities have also rallied. Stocks of companies such as MicroStrategy, which holds substantial Bitcoin reserves, saw a 52-week high as well. 

In addition, Polymarket has emerged as one of the largest platforms for predictions, with bets on the US Election reaching $3 billion in cumulative volume. The platform’s active bettors rose from just 4,000 at the start of the year to nearly 200,000. 

More so, open interest on Polymarket remains high, although analysts from Kaiko have questioned the platform’s predictive reliability. However, Polymarket CEO responded to critics stating that the platform operates with a non-partisan model

Despite these concerns, Donald Trump’s rising odds have boosted Polymarket’s volume and market engagement. Analysts believe this spike in election-related bets reflects market sentiment in favor of Donald Trump’s policies.

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Ronny Mugendi

Ronny Mugendi is a seasoned crypto journalist with four years of professional experience, having contributed significantly to various media outlets on cryptocurrency trends and technologies. With over 4000 published articles across various media outlets, he aims to inform, educate and introduce more people to the Blockchain and DeFi world. Outside of his journalism career, Ronny enjoys the thrill of bike riding, exploring new trails and landscapes.

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.





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BlackRock Bitcoin ETF Triggers Major FOMO With New 6-Month High Milestone

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12 mins ago

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October 30, 2024

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The US spot ETF market for Bitcoin seems to be unstoppable at this point and thanks to BlackRock Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) that has triggered a major FOMO among investors. On Tuesday, the BlackRock IBIT registered a massive $3.3 billion in trading volumes, hitting its six-month high levels. Over the past two weeks, IBIT has been single-handedly leading the inflows showing that institutional FOMO has kicked in ahead of the US election results, less than a week from now.

BlackRock Bitcoin ETF Leads $870 Million Inflows

On Tuesday, October 29, the US BTC ETFs saw inflows of nearly $870 million with BlackRock’s IBIT having a lion’s share of $640 million inflows. This marks one of the largest inflows since launch, with the record set on March 12, 2024, at $1.045 billion. Given the recent excitement, a new record could be within reach.

With this, IBIT’s net inflows since inception have reached closer to $25 billion, which is more than double that of its immediate rival Fidelity’s FBTC. These massive inflows have continued amid the broader crypto market rally with the Bitcoin price approaching its all-time high levels.

Bloomberg’s ETF strategist, Eric Balchunas, highlighted the $3.3 billion in trading volumes recorded by the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF yesterday. He believes that such a volume spike is unusual as ETF activity typically surges during market downturns.

However, Balchunas suggested that the recent spike could be driven by “FOMO” (fear of missing out) due to the Bitcoin price rally, which has continued over the past few days.

The Bloomberg strategist further stated that IBIT wasn’t alone as other Bitcoin ETFs also saw a strong surge in trading volumes yesterday. Thus, he believes that this is possibly a FOMO-driven buying wave. Balchunas also added that if this is indeed a FOMO frenzy, the impact should reflect in substantial inflows in the coming days.

Bitcoin All-Time High Soon?

Amid the 8% gains over the past week, the Bitcoin price has reached within 5% of its all-time high levels. As of press time, the BTC price is trading 1.75% up at $72,267 with a market cap of $1.429 trillion.  However, the retail FOMO in BTC hasn’t kicked yet so far despite strong inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, noted crypto analyst Miles Deutscher.

During the past two Bitcoin bull run cycles, retail buying interest played a crucial role in taking Bitcoin to all-time high levels. This shows that large investors and Bitcoin whales are currently driving the price action. Thus, once retail FOMO kicks in, we can actually see a rally to the levels of $100,000 and above.

Another major bullish indicator is the Bitcoin MVRV ratio which has surged past its 365-SMA signaling major bull rallies along with a golden cross.

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Bhushan Akolkar

Bhushan is a FinTech enthusiast with a keen understanding of financial markets. His interest in economics and finance has led him to focus on emerging Blockchain technology and cryptocurrency markets. He is committed to continuous learning and stays motivated by sharing the knowledge he acquires. In his free time, Bhushan enjoys reading thriller fiction novels and occasionally explores his culinary skills.

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.





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Elon Musk Warns AI May Go Rogue, Here’s Why

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10 hours ago

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October 29, 2024

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk cautioned against the potential risks of artificial intelligence (AI) during his appearance at the Future Investment Initiative conference in Riyadh. Addressing global investors and officials remotely, Musk expressed concern over AI’s trajectory, stating there is a 10% to 20% chance that AI development could take a dangerous path. 

However, despite the concerns, he maintained an optimistic outlook, suggesting that there remains an 80% to 90% likelihood of AI leading to positive outcomes.

Elon Musk Warns AI Could Turn Rogue, Predicts 10-20% Risk of Dangerous Path

Speaking to attendees at the Saudi forum, Musk underlined the potential for artificial intelligence to develop in unexpected and possibly harmful ways. He estimated a 10% to 20% risk of AI veering into a “dangerous” direction, urging vigilance from global leaders. 

This projection reflects Musk’s ongoing concerns about AI, which he has repeatedly emphasized as a technology requiring careful oversight and ethical considerations. However, he also struck a hopeful tone, remarking on an 80% to 90% probability of AI yielding positive advancements.

Musk further projected that artificial intelligence could surpass human capabilities in the future, potentially within the next one to two years. He noted that AI’s growth trajectory could lead to a level of sophistication that enables it to perform any task a human can accomplish. 

Elon Musk emphasized, 

“I think AI is a significant existential threat and something we should be paying close attention to. It’ll be able to do anything a human can do, possibly within the next year or two.”

Predicting the presence of about 10,000 humanoid robots by 2040, Musk highlighted the acceleration of AI in areas including automation and robotics. He pointed out that as AI’s capabilities evolve, so will its role in both routine and complex tasks. 

This rapid development, he cautioned, calls for a proactive approach to ensure that AI’s influence on society remains beneficial. Moreover, it is important to note that Bitcoin miners are embracing AI which offers a stable foundation for sustainable operations.

Concerns Over “Woke, Nihilistic” AI Models

In addition to concerns about AI going rogue, Musk raised a point about the ideological biases he sees embedded in certain AI models, specifically in the United States. He warned that AI systems developed with a “woke, nihilistic” mindset could prioritize controversial views over objective truths, impacting their alignment with unbiased, factual information. 

Musk observed that models trained in regions like the San Francisco Bay Area reflect local socio-political philosophies, which may shape the AI’s decision-making.

This issue, Musk noted, could complicate the role of AI in society, particularly as it expands into more sensitive areas. Hence, Musk advocated for artificial intelligence to prioritize truth-seeking objectives and avoid adopting socio-political biases.

Tesla CEO Endorses Donald Trump

In addition, Elon Musk openly expressed his preference for Donald Trump’s presidential candidacy, highlighting his concerns over over-regulation. Musk argued that a Donald Trump administration would foster a more progressive environment for technological advancements. More so, he noted that the current Biden administration and regulatory landscape stifles innovation. 

He referred to regulatory delays in the aerospace industry, explaining that securing a permit to launch a rocket takes longer than building the rocket itself.

Musk linked this perspective to his endorsement of Donald Trump, expressing more optimism about AI’s future under the Trump administration. 

In addition, Dogecoin co-founder expressed excitement about the potential media attention Dogecoin could receive if Donald Trump wins the 2024 U.S. election. Markus hinted that mainstream media might be compelled to cover Dogecoin more seriously, especially given Elon Musk’s vocal support.

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Ronny Mugendi

Ronny Mugendi is a seasoned crypto journalist with four years of professional experience, having contributed significantly to various media outlets on cryptocurrency trends and technologies. With over 4000 published articles across various media outlets, he aims to inform, educate and introduce more people to the Blockchain and DeFi world. Outside of his journalism career, Ronny enjoys the thrill of bike riding, exploring new trails and landscapes.

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.





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Peter Brandt Comments On BTC’s Underperformance

Published

15 hours ago

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October 29, 2024

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Veteran trader Peter Brandt has reignited the Bitcoin vs Gold debate, highlighting how the flagship crypto has performed against gold. Renowned economist Peter Schiff has also fuelled this debate by arguing that gold deserves more attention than BTC.

Bitcoin Vs. Gold: How BTC Is Performing

Peter Brandt claimed in an X post that Bitcoin has made “no progress” in 42 months in its Gold pair. He remarked that the flagship crypto remains below the March 2024 high and the double highs in 2021.

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Indeed, the Bitcoin price remains below its current all-time high (ATH) of $73,000, which it reached earlier this year in March. Meanwhile, gold continues to reach new highs, rising to a new ATH of $2771. BTC and gold have always been compared, as experts view both assets as a store of value.

Some experts have also argued that the flagship crypto has an edge against gold, although it is commonly called ‘digital gold.’  Peter Brandt also highlighted the significance of these assets while noting that they are in the “heavyweight division” in the battle against fiat depreciation.

Given BTC’s underperformance against gold, the latter seems to live up to the hype more as a store of value. There is also the argument that crypto’s correlation with the stock market shows that investors view it more as a risk asset than a hedge against inflation.

Peter Schiff Also Fuels The Debate

Gold proponent and renowned economist Peter Schiff has also sparked the Bitcoin vs. gold debate. Following the BTC price rally above $71,000 for the first time in four months, Schiff mentioned that gold is trading at another record high, just shy of its ATH. However, Schiff remarked that no one will notice because the flagship crypto is trading back above $71,000.

The economist believes that gold should receive more attention than it currently does, especially as it reaches new highs while BTC attempts to break its current ATH of $73,000. However, despite Schiff’s reservations, it is worth mentioning that the flagship crypto is a victim of its success.

Bitcoin hit a new ATH earlier in the year, just before the halving event in April, which was unusual considering it had never reached a new ATH until after the halving. As such, that development weighed on the flagship crypto since analysts like Rekt Capital claimed that it had to consolidate for this long so it could synchronize with past halving cycles.

For context, despite consolidating for this long, BTC is up over 62% year-to-date (YTD) while gold is up just over 33% since this year began.

Meanwhile, it is worth mentioning that Peter Schiff has also extended the BTC vs gold debate to their related stocks. The economist compared MicroStrategy to gold stocks. He noted that MSTR stock is worth more than the stocks of all gold mining companies except Newmont.

However, Schiff questioned MicroStrategy’s value and suggested it could suffer a price crash soon enough. MSTR is one of the best-performing assets this year, outperforming even BTC and gold.

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Boluwatife Adeyemi

Boluwatife Adeyemi is a well-experienced crypto news writer and editor who has covered topics that cut across DeFi, NFTs, smart contracts, and blockchain interoperability, among others. Boluwatife has a knack for simplifying the most technical concepts and making it easy for crypto newbies to understand. Away from writing, He is an avid basketball lover and a part-time degen.

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.





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