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FOMO HOUR 198 – THE GREAT APE HEIST!
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2 months agoon
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adminFOMO HOUR 198 – THE GREAT APE HEIST!
Crypto rises with stocks after CPI falls again. Bitfinex BTC longs continue to grow. SUI again leads L1s, up 18%. FTX estate unstakes $24m SOL, still has $943m. Binance introduces SOL liquid staking. SWIFT introduces infrastructure for RWA transfers. Pendle launches Bitcoin yield pools. UK makes crypto legal property. India leads crypto adoption for second year. Vitalik won’t advertise L2s with multi-sig security. Based rollups seen as alternative future for ETH. Blockchain music start up raises $50m. Ford & Toyota file blockchain patents.
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Vitalik calls out Saylor, Stocks have Worst day in Weeks, GOAT hits $870M
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October 26, 2024By
adminBTC ETFs: +$192m, ETH ETFs: +$1m. SOLETH continues to hit new highs, ETH weak. Vitalik calls Saylor’s custody view ‘batshit insane’. BTC to $200k by 2025: Bernstein. BTC options point to jump to $80k post-election. Ripple misses deadline in SEC case. Denmark plans 42% tax on unrealised crypto gains. Ripple CEO debanked by Citigroup.
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Bitcoin
Prediction Markets Are Pricing In A Trump Victory. This Is Good For Bitcoin
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2 weeks agoon
October 22, 2024By
adminEarlier today, Vivek discussed why he thinks crypto native Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market, is biased towards Trump in this upcoming U.S. presidential election. While it is plausible given the arguments he laid out, I still believe that it may not be as biased as he may think.
First and foremost, prediction market traders are betting on these odds to make money, not swear loyalty to their preferred politician. Traders are looking to make a profit and are trying to lock in their bets at attractive odds on who they think will win. Based on many factors, like positive incoming GOP voter registration data in swing states like Pennsylvania, there are signs that show Trump has a very solid chance of winning this election. Even billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller said that the recent positive upswing in markets is due to the markets pricing in a Trump victory.
Like Vivek, many claim that since Polymarket is crypto native, then of course its users support Trump because he is also pro-Bitcoin and crypto. So let’s take a look at another, non-crypto native, market predictions platform, Kalshi.
On Kalshi, a U.S. betting odds platform that settles contracts in dollars, not Bitcoin or crypto, Trump is also in a massive lead. Trump is currently up by 20% over Harris. The crowd of users on this platform appear to be choosing their bets on who they think will win the election, even putting aside their own personal political preferences. Reading the comments, I’m seeing many people say they want Trump to win, but are taking the other side of this bet as they believe there may be election fraud from the Democrats which would see Harris ‘win’.
“Y’all betting on Trump haven’t priced in the probability of delivery vans pulling into the polling stations at 3am with 10’s of thousands of ballots, 99% of which going to Kamala they suddenly ‘found,’” commented one user. “Kamala will win legitimately or not, you have been warned.”
It will be fascinating to watch how these prediction markets play out as we inch closer to the election, which is now only two weeks away. I agree with Vivek that as we get closer to the election, these margins will likely get narrower. It appears to me that Trump has got this one in the bag, but it ain’t over until it’s over. Last election most people went to sleep thinking Trump had won the election, just for the Democrats to find all these ballots voting for Biden at 3am to win him the election. If there is any election fraud and interference in this upcoming election, these prediction markets may be in for a very volatile time.
A Trump win would be massive for Bitcoin on a regulatory level and price wise, due to his proposed policies. Under Harris, on the other hand, the future of Bitcoin in this country would be uncertain, as she has not laid out any real details on policy she would implement while as president and has a four year track record of attacking the industry while in office as vice president.
Bitcoin Magazine is teaming up with Stand With Crypto to provide real time election coverage on November 5th. So if you’re a Bitcoiner tired of watching mainstream news and want to witness this election from the perspective of a Bitcoiner, make sure to tune into the stream. More details on the livestream and where to watch here.
This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.
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