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I Bought MicroStrategy (MSTR) Stock For No Real Reason

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3 months ago

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The price of MicroStrategy stock surging above $200, the MSTR bulls were out in force last week, insufferably posting about how Michael Saylor’s tech firm, a once dead tech company from the dot-com era, will outperform everything again this cycle.

Look, I’m not going to even start parsing the hokum. You can follow BitPaine, Dan Hillery, or one of the hundreds of Bitcoin X accounts which now comprise the MSTR bull twitterverse. 

There’s videos, threads, and of course, a lot of people who are irresponsibly long…

But the general gist is this:

  1. Michael Saylor’s has decided to buy over 200,000 BTC, and to keep buying Bitcoin until the fiat system collapses. He will continue leveraging cheap debt to do this, which he can borrow because this is how the fiat system works, infinite money glitch.
  2. This will make his company more valuable than other companies – since it offers exposure to a valuable and scarce commodity (Bitcoin), but with added beta due to the companies existing profitable product suite. Said another way, as the Bitcoin they accumulate gains in value, Microstrategy stock will look undervalued compared to the underlying collateral.
  3. Since BTC won’t go to zero, and the Federal Reserve has to keep cutting rates (boosting stocks), this is a perfect storm for MSTR, and it will benefit from the liquidity injection and outperform Bitcoin even as Bitcoin enters its 4-year cycle … blah blah blah.

This is my best attempt to repeat this thesis, I wrote it in 2 minutes. I refuse to even copy edit it. The gist is companies that some people believe buying Bitcoin stock can outperform Bitcoin for some reason, and that this isn’t speculation, but morally aligned Bitcoin maximalism, or something…

Maybe Dylan LeClair can explain the math to you. He’s tried with me multiple times, and I’ve never understood anything more than the above. Amount of Bitcoin the company owns per share = good. No Bitcoin divided by shares = bad.

So, why did I buy MSTR? Short story, I had money in my 401(k) that I can only invest in regulated investments. (Yes, that means I own Bitcoin ETFs as well.)

But that’s not really the whole story. Really, I’m just tired of watching the MSTR bulls be right about whatever it is they are talking about, and want some skin in the upside. Should I have done some diligence here? Should I have some hypothesis? Shouldn’t I just be HODLING?

Maybe, but have you considered Michael Saylor, bull, bull, bull?



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MicroStrategy Continues Weekly Bitcoin Buying Spree With Another $101 Million

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2 days ago

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January 6, 2025

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Software company MicroStrategy is pushing forward with its Bitcoin buying spree in 2025, today snapping up more than $100 million worth of the orange coin.

An SEC filing and Monday announcement from the company’s co-founder and Bitcoin bull Michael Saylor showed that MicroStrategy spent $101 million buying 1,070 BTC at an average price of $94,004. That’s roughly half the amount of Bitcoin the company bought last week, consistent with the weekly buying trend that MicroStrategy started in November following the reelection of Donald Trump.

MicroStrategy now holds 447,470 Bitcoin in total. At today’s Bitcoin price of $101,832, that’s a stash worth over $45.5 billion. All told, the company bought their coins at an average price of $62,503, the announcement said.

Prediction markets last week were bullish that MicroStrategy would buy more Bitcoin today—and understandably so, given that that today’s purchase makes nine consecutively weekly buys for Saylor’s company.

On Myriad—a points-based prediction market and engagement platform developed by Dastan, parent company of an editorially independent Decrypt—users saw an 86% chance that MicroStrategy would hold at least 450,000 BTC before the end of this week. Those odds, though, have now tanked to just 20% as of this writing following the company’s announcement of a much smaller purchase relative to previous weeks.

On the Monday following Trump’s win, MicroStrategy announced it bought more than $2 billion worth of Bitcoin. It then followed up the next week with another $4.6 billion, and then again with its single largest purchase yet of $5.4 billion the week after that.

The company has continued buying more Bitcoin every week since, but the individual amounts have gradually decreased in recent weeks as the price of Bitcoin has swelled. Users on Polymarket, a prediction market co-founded by Shayne Coplan in 2020, currently see only a 2% chance that MicroSrategy holds more than 500,000 BTC by Trump’s inauguration on January 20.

MicroStrategy was previously a software company that sold data-analyzing solutions to companies. It still does that, but Saylor has since rebranded the firm as a Bitcoin development company, leading with its Bitcoin treasury.

It all started in 2020, when covid lockdowns and record low interest rates threatened to hurt the company’s shareholders, according to Saylor. He decided to buy Bitcoin and has since argued that the asset—being scarce—is the best way to preserve wealth.

Now, MicroStrategy makes most of its money by securitizing the biggest cryptocurrency by market cap: investors wanting exposure to Bitcoin can buy shares of the company that trade on the Nasdaq—an arguably safer, more regulated way of crypto investing.

It is now the biggest publicly traded holder of the cryptocurrency and issues debt to buy Bitcoin—making a killing for investors in the process: MicroStrategy stock is up over 500% year-to-date.

But concerns have been raised about how viable this is if the price of Bitcoin were to tank: the company is highly leveraged and some analysts now believe the stock price may be overvalued.

Edited by Stacy Elliott.

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New Pi Cycle Top Prediction Chart Identifies Bitcoin Price Market Peaks with Precision

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2 days ago

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January 6, 2025

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Bitcoin investors and analysts constantly seek innovative tools and indicators to gain a competitive edge in navigating volatile market cycles. A recent addition to this arsenal is the Pi Cycle Top Prediction chart, now available on Bitcoin Magazine Pro. Designed for professional and institutional investors, this chart builds on the widely recognized Pi Cycle Top indicator—a tool that has historically pinpointed Bitcoin’s market cycle peaks with remarkable accuracy.

Understanding the Pi Cycle Top Prediction Indicator

The Pi Cycle Top Prediction chart enhances the concept of its predecessor by projecting future potential crossover points of two key moving averages:

  1. 111-day Moving Average (111DMA)
  2. 350-day Moving Average multiplied by two (350DMA x2)

By calculating the rate of change of these two moving averages over the past 14 days, the tool extrapolates their trajectory into the future. This approach provides a predictive estimate of when these two averages will cross, signaling a potential market top.

Historically, the crossover of these moving averages has been closely associated with Bitcoin’s cycle tops. In fact, the original Pi Cycle Top indicator successfully identified Bitcoin’s previous cycle peaks to within three days, both before and after its creation.

Implications for Market Behavior

When the 111DMA approaches the 350DMA x2, it suggests that Bitcoin’s price may be rising unsustainably, often reflecting heightened speculative fervor. A crossover typically signals the end of a bull market, followed by a price correction or bear market.

For professional investors, this tool is invaluable as a risk management mechanism. By identifying periods when market conditions might be overheating, it allows investors to make informed decisions about their exposure to Bitcoin and adjust their strategies accordingly.

Key Prediction: September 17, 2025

The current projection estimates that the moving averages will cross on September 17, 2025. This date represents a potential market top, offering investors a timeline to monitor and reassess their positions as market dynamics evolve. Users can view this projection in detail by hovering over the chart on the Bitcoin Magazine Pro platform.

The Pi Cycle Top Prediction indicator was conceptualized by Matt Crosby, Lead Analyst at Bitcoin Magazine Pro. It builds on the original Pi Cycle Top indicator, created by Philip Swift, Managing Director of Bitcoin Magazine Pro. Swift’s Pi Cycle Top has become a trusted resource among Bitcoin analysts and investors for its historical accuracy in identifying market peaks.

Investors interested in a deeper exploration of market cycles can also refer to:

Video Explainer and Educational Resources

For a comprehensive explanation of the Pi Cycle Top Prediction chart, investors can watch a detailed video by Matt Crosby, available here. This video provides an overview of the methodology, practical applications, and historical context for this predictive tool.

Why This Matters for Professional Investors

In a market as dynamic and unpredictable as Bitcoin, professional investors require sophisticated tools to anticipate and respond to significant market shifts. The Pi Cycle Top Prediction chart offers:

  • Data-Driven Insights: By leveraging historical data and predictive modeling, the chart delivers actionable insights for portfolio management.
  • Timing Precision: The ability to estimate cycle tops with a high degree of accuracy enhances strategic decision-making.
  • Risk Mitigation: Early warning signals of market overheating empower investors to protect their portfolios from potential downside risks.

As Bitcoin matures into an asset class increasingly adopted by institutional investors, tools like the Pi Cycle Top Prediction chart become essential for understanding and navigating its unique market cycles. By integrating this chart into their analytical toolkit, investors can deepen their insights and improve their long-term investment outcomes.

To explore live data and stay informed on the latest analysis, visit bitcoinmagazinepro.com.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.





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SPX6900 price rockets to ATH: will SPX hit $2 soon?

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2 days ago

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January 6, 2025

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The SPX6900 token continued its strong uptrend on Monday, reaching an all-time high with a market cap exceeding $1.42 billion. SPX6900 (SPX) traded above $1.56 on Jan. 6, rising more than 250% from its November low, making it the tenth-largest…



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