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If Bitcoin Price Repeats Gold’s Bullish Pattern, BTC Could Hit $230K

Published

2 months ago

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In the last two weeks, the Bitcoin price rallied from $58,680 to $67,415, registering a 14.5% growth. This upswing restores the Uptober sentiment in the crypto market and signals the BTC buyer’s attempt to end the 7-month consolidation. Amid renewed buying momentum, a crypto analyst predicted a BTC surge to $230k as its price action mimics Gold’s bullish pattern.

Bitcoin Price Shatters 7-Month Consolidation with Whale Influx

In a recent tweet, crypto analyst GertvanLagen revealed that Bitcoin’s price formed a cup and handle pattern similar to the S&P 500 index and Gold’s development before hitting their new high. The three charts showed a similar saucer-shaped recovery and a temporary pullback before triggering a massive rally.

Theoretically, the chart setup shows a clear transition from a downtrend to a sideways/accumulation trend followed by a recovery rally. Before entering a full-fledged recovery, the chart pattern offers a short correction for buyers to recuperate the bullish momentum.

In technical analysis, the target for a breakout is often determined by measuring the depth of the cup in the CNH pattern and applying that value to the expected breakout point. If the pattern holds true, Lagen shows a potential BTC price rally to a $230K high.

The aforementioned target closely aligns with the long-term prediction of several crypto experts, who believe BTC’s six-digit price is plausible. 

Experts Forecast Six-digit BTC in 2025

According to crypto aggregator Coingecko, numerous analysts and industry experts forecast significant price increases for the leading cryptocurrency in the coming years.

  • Through ARK Invest, Cathie Wood is one of the most bullish on Bitcoin. She forecasts a potential BTC price between $600,000 and $1,500,000 by 2030.
  • Markus Thielen from Matrixport shows a conservative target of $125,000 by the end of 2024, while BitQuant trading and research firm shows a wide range for Bitcoin price prediction of $80,000 – $250,000.
  • Gautam Chhugani from Bernstein shared a Bitcoin price forecast to target $150,000 in 2025, while Matiu Rudolph from Layer One X shows a potential target of $340,000.
  • Mike McGlone of Bloomberg Intelligence forecasts Bitcoin to reach $100,000 by 2026.

BTC Price Forecast: Will $65K Support Hold or Break?

In a recent tweet, crypto analyst TraderXO highlights that the Bitcoin price is currently positioned near a key support level, with significant bids between the $65,000 and $66,000 range.

Following a recent reversal of $70,000, the BTC price is poised to retest the above-mentioned support to seek sustainability. If the sellers break this foothold, the coin price could plunge 7.5% to retest the monthly support at $62,500.

Bitcoin price- GOLDBitcoin price- GOLD
BTC/USDT -1d Chart

On the contrary note, a bullish breakout from the $70k region will accelerate the bullish momentum and drive the Bitcoin price target above $73,750 ATH.

Conclusion:

Bitcoin is at a crucial juncture as a potential breakout from the CNH pattern will drive a massive rally similar to Gold and the S&P 500 index.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Based on the cup and handle (CNH) pattern, Bitcoin’s price could potentially rally to $230K, following a similar pattern seen in Gold and the S&P 500 before their major highs

Bitcoin is currently testing key support between $65,000 and $66,000, with $70,000 acting as significant resistance

Experts like Cathie Wood from ARK Invest predict Bitcoin could reach $600,000 to $1.5M by 2030. Other forecasts include Markus Thielen’s $125K target by 2024, Gautam Chhugani’s $150K estimate for 2025

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Sahil Mahadik

Sahil is a dedicated full-time trader with over three years of experience in the financial markets. Armed with a strong grasp of technical analysis, he keeps a vigilant eye on the daily price movements of top assets and indices. Drawn by his fascination with financial instruments, Sahil enthusiastically embraced the emerging realm of cryptocurrency, where he continues to explore opportunities driven by his passion for trading

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.





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Exploring Six On-Chain Indicators to Understand the Bitcoin Market Cycle

Published

2 days ago

on

December 21, 2024

By


With Bitcoin now making six-figure territory feel normal and higher prices a seeming inevitability, the analysis of key on-chain data provides valuable insights into the underlying health of the market. By understanding these metrics, investors can better anticipate price movements and prepare for potential market peaks or even any upcoming retracements.

Terminal Price

The Terminal Price metric, which incorporates the Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) while factoring in Bitcoin’s supply, has historically been a reliable indicator for predicting Bitcoin cycle peaks. Coin Days Destroyed measures the velocity of coins being transferred, considering both the holding duration and the quantity of Bitcoin moved.

Figure 1: Bitcoin Terminal Price has surpassed $185,000.

View Live Chart 🔍

Currently, the terminal price has surpassed $185,000 and is likely to rise toward $200,000 as the cycle progresses. With Bitcoin already breaking $100,000, this suggests we may still have several months of positive price action ahead.

Puell Multiple

The Puell Multiple evaluates daily miner revenue (in USD) relative to its 365-day moving average. After the halving event, miners experienced a sharp drop in revenue, creating a period of consolidation.

Figure 2: Puell Multiple has climbed above 1.00.

View Live Chart 🔍

Now, the Puell Multiple has climbed back above 1, signaling a return to profitability for miners. Historically, surpassing this threshold has indicated the later stages of a bull cycle, often marked by exponential price rallies. A similar pattern was observed during all previous bull runs.

MVRV Z-Score

The MVRV Z-Score measures the market value relative to the realized value (average cost basis of Bitcoin holders). Standardized into a Z-Score to account for the asset’s volatility, it’s been highly accurate in identifying cycle peaks and bottoms.

Figure 3: MVRV-Z Score still considerably below where previous peaks have occurred.

View Live Chart 🔍

Currently, Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score remains below the overheated red zone with a value of around 3.00, signaling that there’s still room for growth. While diminishing peaks have been a trend in recent cycles, the Z-Score suggests that the market is far from reaching a euphoric top.

Active Address Sentiment

This metric tracks the 28-day percentage change in active network addresses alongside the price change over the same period. When price growth outpaces network activity, it suggests the market may be short-term overbought, as the positive price action may not be sustainable given network utilization.

Figure 4: AASI indicated overheated conditions above $100,000.

View Live Chart 🔍

Recent data shows a slight cooling after Bitcoin’s rapid climb from $50,000 to $100,000, indicating a healthy consolidation period. This pause is likely setting the stage for sustained long-term growth and does not indicate we should be medium to long-term bearish.

Spent Output Profit Ratio

The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) measures realized profits from Bitcoin transactions. Recent data shows an uptick in profit-taking, potentially indicating we are entering the latter stages of the cycle.

Figure 5: Large SOPR clusters of profit taking.

View Live Chart 🔍

One caveat to consider is the growing use of Bitcoin ETFs and derivative products. Investors may be shifting from self-custody to ETFs for ease of use and tax advantages, which could influence SOPR values.

Value Days Destroyed

Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple expands on CDD by weighting larger, long-term holders. When this metric enters the overheated red zone, it often signals major price peaks as the market’s largest and most experienced participants begin cashing out.

Figure 6: VDD is warm but not too hot.

View Live Chart 🔍

While Bitcoin’s current VDD levels indicate a slightly overheated market, history suggests it could sustain this range for months before a peak. For example, in 2017, VDD indicated overbought conditions nearly a year before the cycle’s top.

Conclusion

Taken together, these metrics suggest that Bitcoin is entering the latter stages of its bull market. While some indicators point to short-term cooling or slight overextension, most highlight substantial remaining upside throughout 2025. Key resistance levels for this cycle may emerge between $150,000 and $200,000, with metrics like SOPR and VDD providing clearer signals as we approach the peak.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here: What’s Happening On-chain: Bitcoin Update

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.



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Analyst

Here’s Why The Bitcoin Price Continues To Hold Steady Between $96,000 And $98,000

Published

3 days ago

on

December 20, 2024

By



Este artículo también está disponible en español.

The Bitcoin price has dropped below the $100,000 psychological level and is now holding between the $96,000 and $98,000 range. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez provided insights into why Bitcoin could be holding well within this range. 

Why The Bitcoin Price Is Holding Steady Between $96,000 And $98,000

In an X post, Ali Martinez noted that one of the most important support levels for the Bitcoin price is between $98,830 and $95,830, where 1.09 wallets bought over 1.16 million BTC. This explains why Bitcoin is holding steady between $96,000 and $98,000 as investors who bought between this level continue to provide huge support for the flagship crypto. 

As Martinez suggested, it is important for these holders to continue to hold steady as a wave of sell-offs could send the Bitcoin price tumbling even below $90,000. The flagship crypto dropped below $100,000 following the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell’s recent speech, in which he hinted at a hawkish stance from the US Central Bank. 

This sparked a massive wave of sell-offs, as a Hawkish Fed paints a bearish picture for risk assets like Bitcoin. However, despite the Bitcoin price drop below, most Bitcoin holders remain in profit, which is a positive for the flagship crypto. IntoTheBlock data shows that 86% of Bitcoin holders are in the money, 4% are out of the money, and 9% are at the money.

These Bitcoin holders still seem bullish on the leading crypto as they continue to accumulate more BTC. In an X post, Ali Martinez stated that so far in December, 74,052 BTC have been withdrawn from exchanges, and this trend doesn’t seem to be slowing down. 

Bitcoin priceS
Source: X

Traders Anticipate A Bullish Reversal 

Ali Martinez suggested that crypto traders anticipate a bullish reversal for the Bitcoin price from its current level. This came as he revealed that traders on Binance nailed the top, with 62.17% shorting Bitcoin while it was trading at $108,000. Now, Martinez stated that sentiment has flipped, with 55.44% of these trading now longing dips below $96,000. 

Bitcoin price 2
Source: X

Meanwhile, it is crucial for the Bitcoin price to hold this $96,000, as Martinez warned that if BTC loses this support, it could drop below $90,000. The analyst stated that based on the Fibonacci level, if Bitcoin loses $96,000, the next point of focus becomes $90,000 and $85,000. Meanwhile, from a bullish perspective, crypto analyst Justin Bennett suggested that the $110,000 target is still in focus for the Bitcoin price.  

Bitcoin price 3
Source: X

At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $97,000, down over 3% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. 

Bitcoin price chart from Tradingview.com
BTC price drops to $93,000 | Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview.com

Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com



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Bitcoin Magazine Pro

Exploring Five On-Chain Indicators to Understand the Bitcoin Market Cycle

Published

3 days ago

on

December 20, 2024

By


With Bitcoin now making six-figure territory feel normal and higher prices a seeming inevitability, the analysis of key on-chain data provides valuable insights into the underlying health of the market. By understanding these metrics, investors can better anticipate price movements and prepare for potential market peaks or even any upcoming retracements.

Terminal Price

The Terminal Price metric, which incorporates the Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) while factoring in Bitcoin’s supply, has historically been a reliable indicator for predicting Bitcoin cycle peaks. Coin Days Destroyed measures the velocity of coins being transferred, considering both the holding duration and the quantity of Bitcoin moved.

Figure 1: Bitcoin Terminal Price has surpassed $185,000.

View Live Chart 🔍

Currently, the terminal price has surpassed $185,000 and is likely to rise toward $200,000 as the cycle progresses. With Bitcoin already breaking $100,000, this suggests we may still have several months of positive price action ahead.

Puell Multiple

The Puell Multiple evaluates daily miner revenue (in USD) relative to its 365-day moving average. After the halving event, miners experienced a sharp drop in revenue, creating a period of consolidation.

Figure 2: Puell Multiple has climbed above 1.00.

View Live Chart 🔍

Now, the Puell Multiple has climbed back above 1, signaling a return to profitability for miners. Historically, surpassing this threshold has indicated the later stages of a bull cycle, often marked by exponential price rallies. A similar pattern was observed during all previous bull runs.

MVRV Z-Score

The MVRV Z-Score measures the market value relative to the realized value (average cost basis of Bitcoin holders). Standardized into a Z-Score to account for the asset’s volatility, it’s been highly accurate in identifying cycle peaks and bottoms.

Figure 3: MVRV-Z Score still considerably below where previous peaks have occurred.

View Live Chart 🔍

Currently, Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score remains below the overheated red zone with a value of around 3.00, signaling that there’s still room for growth. While diminishing peaks have been a trend in recent cycles, the Z-Score suggests that the market is far from reaching a euphoric top.

Active Address Sentiment

This metric tracks the 28-day percentage change in active network addresses alongside the price change over the same period. When price growth outpaces network activity, it suggests the market may be short-term overbought, as the positive price action may not be sustainable given network utilization.

Figure 4: AASI indicated overheated conditions above $100,000.

View Live Chart 🔍

Recent data shows a slight cooling after Bitcoin’s rapid climb from $50,000 to $100,000, indicating a healthy consolidation period. This pause is likely setting the stage for sustained long-term growth and does not indicate we should be medium to long-term bearish.

Spent Output Profit Ratio

The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) measures realized profits from Bitcoin transactions. Recent data shows an uptick in profit-taking, potentially indicating we are entering the latter stages of the cycle.

Figure 5: Large SOPR clusters of profit taking.

View Live Chart 🔍

One caveat to consider is the growing use of Bitcoin ETFs and derivative products. Investors may be shifting from self-custody to ETFs for ease of use and tax advantages, which could influence SOPR values.

Value Days Destroyed

Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple expands on CDD by weighting larger, long-term holders. When this metric enters the overheated red zone, it often signals major price peaks as the market’s largest and most experienced participants begin cashing out.

Figure 6: VDD is warm but not too hot.

View Live Chart 🔍

While Bitcoin’s current VDD levels indicate a slightly overheated market, history suggests it could sustain this range for months before a peak. For example, in 2017, VDD indicated overbought conditions nearly a year before the cycle’s top.

Conclusion

Taken together, these metrics suggest that Bitcoin is entering the latter stages of its bull market. While some indicators point to short-term cooling or slight overextension, most highlight substantial remaining upside throughout 2025. Key resistance levels for this cycle may emerge between $150,000 and $200,000, with metrics like SOPR and VDD providing clearer signals as we approach the peak.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here: What’s Happening On-chain: Bitcoin Update

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.



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