Ethereum has once again fallen below the $2,000 mark, a psychological level it had briefly reclaimed earlier this week. The market-wide correction over the past 24 hours has weighed on Ethereum’s recovery momentum, and the leading altcoin has seen a dip in sentiment that could lead to a deeper decline or a sharp mid-term rebound. 

Short-term sentiment is cautious, but a new analysis from a well-followed crypto analyst has brought attention to a significant technical event that opens up a bullish perspective for the Ethereum price.

Ethereum Hits 300-Week Moving Average Again: What Happened The Last Time?

Taking to social media platform X, crypto analyst CryptoBullet pointed out that Ethereum has now touched the 300-week moving average for only the second time in its history. The first instance was in June 2022, during the market-wide crash that saw the Ethereum price plummet to as low as $880 before beginning a long, slow recovery.

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The second occurrence has come this month, March 2025, just as Ethereum continues to extend its struggles in gaining a footing above $2,000. With Ethereum touching the 300-week moving average again, we can only look back to see what happened last time to get a perspective of what to expect now.

In June 2022, Ethereum’s touch of the 300-week moving average marked the beginning of a long-term recovery phase. After the bounce from that level, the Ethereum price surged more than 140% over the next eight weeks, eventually pushing above $2,100 in August 2022 before another correction.

Mid-Term Rebound In Focus For ETH, But Resistance Ahead

CryptoBullet noted the significance of this moving average, framing it as a key historical support zone. The analyst argued that regardless of bearish sentiment in the short term, this kind of macro-level support typically sets the stage for a meaningful bounce. 

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“Even if you’re a bear, you can’t deny that we hit a very important support level,” he wrote, adding that his price target for the coming bounce is between $2,900 and $3,200. Nonetheless, the bounce will depend on how the Ethereum price reacts to the level, as a continued downside move would cancel out any bullish momentum.

For now, Ethereum’s price is trapped under bearish sentiment, and bulls will need to reclaim the $2,000 zone before any sustainable bounce toward the $2,900 and $3,200 range can begin to materialize. Furthermore, the recent price correction in the past 24 hours increases the risks of the Ethereum price closing March below the 3M Bollinger bands, which is currently just around $2,000. A close below the 3M Bollinger bands could spell trouble for the leading altcoin.

However, if CryptoBullet’s analysis proves to be accurate, Ethereum may soon enter a period of stronger price action that plays out over the coming weeks. At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading at $1,907, down by 5.82% in the past 24 hours.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com

Ether (ETH) price declined by over 11.75% in the last 24 hours to around $1,900. At its intraday low, the cryptocurrency was trading for $1,755, its lowest price since October 2023.

Several factors appear to be contributing to ETH price losses, including:

• US recession fears and its overall impact on risk-on markets.

• Massive long liquidations in the crypto market.

• Crypto loans backed by ETH as collateral facing liquidation risks.

• Bearish technicals.

Ether price declines with risk-on assets

Ether’s ongoing price drop mirrors similar declines in the broader risk-on market due to unfavorable macroeconomic conditions.

Key points:

• JPMorgan raised US recession risk to 40% for 2025, up from 30%, citing US President Donald Trump’s “extreme US policies” as a key risk factor.

• Goldman Sachs also raised its 12-month recession probability to 20%, up from 15%.

• Earlier in March, Trump imposed 25% tariffs on all goods from Mexico and Canada, and 10% tariffs on Chinese imports.

• Canada and Mexico have announced intentions to impose retaliatory tariffs on US goods, escalating trade tensions and raising concerns about a potential trade war.

• Meanwhile, China has already retaliated by increasing tariffs on multiple US products and imposing export controls and investment restrictions on 25 US firms.

• These tariffs are expected to increase consumer prices and contribute to US inflation.

US recession fears are impacting Ethereum and the crypto sector, notably:

• Ether, Bitcoin, and other top-ranking crypto assets have historically declined during periods of economic turbulences, e.g., the Covid-19 sell-off in March 2020.

• As of March 11, the 52-week correlation between the crypto market and the US benchmark index, the S&P 500 index, was 0.69.

• A consistently positive correlation increases the odds of a crypto market decline if US stocks keep falling, especially as the trade war drags on further.

• Bond traders see no need for a rate cut before June, with CME data showing 95% and 52.5% odds of a pause in the Fed’s March and May meetings, respectively.

Bad DeFi loans increase Ether sell-off pressure

A $74 million DeFi loan on the Sky protocol, collateralized with $130 million in ETH, almost got liquidated after Ether price fell below the liquidation level just above $1,900.

As it happened:

• The borrower added $34 million in ETH as collateral to avoid liquidation.

• Withdrew $1.6 million in USDT from Binance, swapped it for DAI, and deposited into Maker.

• Reduced debt to $73.1 million while ETH’s price continued to decline.

• Liquidation level remained at $1,836 per ETH, closer to ETH’s current price above $1,900.

• Nearly $353 million in debt is tied to such loans, risking liquidation if ETH’s price falls 20% from here.

Long liquidations accelerate ETH downtrend

Ether’s tumble over the past 24 hours coincided with a wave of long liquidations that forced traders to exit their leveraged positions.

Key takeaways:

• Over $240 million worth of ETH positions were wiped out in the last 24 hours, with long liquidations accounting for $196.27 million, or 82% of the total.

• The sharp price drop triggered a cascade of forced sell-offs as traders betting on Ethereum’s price increase were liquidated.

• When leveraged long positions fail to maintain margin requirements, exchanges automatically sell off their holdings to cover losses.

• Such liquidations accelerate price declines, exacerbating the downturn.

• The broader crypto market also experienced a sharp deleveraging event, with total liquidations reaching $897.26 million across assets.

Ether eyes further decline toward $1,700

From a technical perspective, Ether’s price decline today is part of its prevailing inverse-cup-and-handle (IC&H) pattern.

Key points:

• A temporary consolidation (handle) formed near $2,700, indicating a failed breakout attempt.

• ETH broke below key support levels, confirming the IC&H breakdown, leading to more losses.

• The measured move target from the pattern suggests a potential decline toward $1,700, aligning with the dotted support level.

• The 50-day EMA ($2,600) and 200-day EMA ($2,929) remain far above, reinforcing bearish sentiment.

Key levels to watch:

• ETH price is inside a descending channel pattern since late February.

• As of March 11, the ETH/USD pair was rising after testing the channel’s lower trendline as support.

• Such rebounds have taken prices toward the channel’s upper trendline in recent history.

• If the fractal repeats, ETH’s next upside target could be around $2,000, aligning with the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement line.

• A reversal from current price levels could have ETH test the IC&H downside target of $1,700.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.