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Is Aave on the brink of a breakout or pullback?

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Aave (AAVE) has surged by 64.7% in less than a month. With such a strong rally, the question now is whether AAVE can continue its upward momentum or if it faces a potential pullback. In this week’s analysis, we examine the key technical indicators, resistance levels, and strategic considerations to determine the most likely direction for AAVE in the coming days.

Chart of the week: Is Aave on the brink of a breakout or pullback? - 1

Resistance and support analysis

Aave (AAVE) faces a critical juncture as it approaches a very strong resistance level at $115. This level has a significant history, having acted as resistance 20 times and support 24 times in the past. The price currently hovers around this key level, and the market is closely watching to see if Aave (AAVE) will once again encounter resistance for the 21st and 22nd times or finally break through. However, signs suggest that it may be difficult to overcome this barrier.

Chart of the week: Is Aave on the brink of a breakout or pullback? - 2

When examining historical support levels, two key areas stand out: the $80 mark and the $50 mark. While the $50 level served as support during the bear market, it seems unlikely that Aave (AAVE) will revisit this area in the current market conditions. On the other hand, the $80 level is a more recent occurrence and represents a support level worth keeping in mind as Aave’s (AAVE) price action unfolds.

Chart of the week: Is Aave on the brink of a breakout or pullback? - 3

Fibonacci retracements analysis

Looking at the macro Fibonacci retracement from the low in August 2019 to the high in May 2021, we observe a significant 78.6% retracement level at $143.09. The last time Aave (AAVE) approached this level was in March 2024, when it ultimately failed to break through. Should Aave (AAVE) succeed in surpassing its historical resistance at $115, the next logical profit target would likely be set at this $143.09 level.

Chart of the week: Is Aave on the brink of a breakout or pullback? - 4

On a more positive note, when examining the Fibonacci retracement from the March 2024 high to the April 2024 low, Aave (AAVE) successfully breached the 23.6%, 38.2%, and 50% levels. It is now approaching the golden pocket, which lies between $121.50 and $124.11. If Aave (AAVE) manages to break above the $115 resistance, this golden pocket represents the next key area to watch. It is a strong, bullish zone with minimal resistance, making it a likely target for further upward movement.

Chart of the week: Is Aave on the brink of a breakout or pullback? - 5

Lastly, when applying Fibonacci from the early July low to the present, we identify two potential levels where Aave (AAVE) might retrace if it fails to break through the $115 resistance. The first is the 23.6% level at $106.50, and the second is the 38.2% level at $99.77, which aligns closely with the psychological $100 mark.

Chart of the week: Is Aave on the brink of a breakout or pullback? - 6

Technical indicators

Bollinger Bands

Aave’s (AAVE) recent price action has moved it above the upper Bollinger Band, indicating an overextension in the current uptrend. While trading above the middle band typically signifies a strong upward trend, the price being above the upper band often suggests that the asset is overbought. This positioning implies that the upper band is likely acting as a resistance level, making sustained movement at this level improbable. Given this, it is likely that Aave (AAVE) may experience a correction soon as the price reverts to a more sustainable level within the bands.

Chart of the week: Is Aave on the brink of a breakout or pullback? - 7

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram continues to grow and remains in the green, which signals increasing bullish momentum. The recent bullish crossover, where the MACD line has crossed above the signal line, also strengthens the case for continued upward movement in the near term.

Chart of the week: Is Aave on the brink of a breakout or pullback? - 8

RSI

On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching the overbought territory, hovering near the 70 level. Historically, when Aave’s (AAVE) RSI has reached around 70, the bullish momentum has often stalled and led to a pullback.

Chart of the week: Is Aave on the brink of a breakout or pullback? - 9

Strategic considerations

First, it’s important to consider the seasonal patterns within the cryptocurrency market. Historically, August and September have been challenging months for crypto assets. According to data from CoinGlass, the median Bitcoin monthly returns during these months are among the worst in the calendar year. Therefore, expecting significant upward momentum in Aave (AAVE) during this period may be overly optimistic.

Chart of the week: Is Aave on the brink of a breakout or pullback? - 10

Secondly, when evaluating Aave’s (AAVE) current situation using the technical indicators discussed, it becomes apparent that the bullish momentum is not as strong as it might initially appear. The recent breakthroughs in Fibonacci retracement levels and the bullish signals from the MACD are the only indicators suggesting potential upward movement. However, everything else points towards a likely correction.

Moreover, while Aave (AAVE) has benefited from positive news and increased whale activity, these factors seem to be losing steam.

The net flow of Aave (AAVE) into exchanges has risen, which indicates potential selling pressure. For instance, on August 1, the net flow into exchanges exceeded $8 million.

Chart of the week: Is Aave on the brink of a breakout or pullback? - 11

Considering these factors, several price targets emerge if Aave (AAVE) fails to break above $115:

  • First target: $106.50
  • Second target: $100
  • Third target: $95
  • Fourth target (worst-case scenario): The golden pocket is between $87.41 and $88.89, which closely aligns with the $90 level.

If Aave (AAVE) does manage to break above $115, the outlook will shift toward a bullish scenario. In such a case, traders should watch for a subsequent retest of the $115 level as new support. Successfully holding this level would confirm the breakout and reinforce the momentum. Profit targets should then be adjusted upwards, focusing on the golden pocket between $121.50 and $124.11, followed by $135.20, and ultimately $143.09.

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US Government Makes First AAVE Transaction In 8 Months

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The US government has ignited a selloff scare for AAVE after initiating its first transaction for the token in 8 months. According to data insights from Arkham Intelligence, the US Government transaction features a total of $5.4 million.

Is the US Government Earning With Aave?

Per the data shared, the funds were originally secured from the Bitfinex Hacker as marked by Arkham Intelligence. However, the exact transactions remains partly unclear considering the funds are paid out in USDC.

According to comments from the community, one explanation for this is that the US government locked up the funds on Aave. Based on this, it started earning interest as a liquidity provider on the Decentralized Finance (DeFi) lending platform.

This is a developing story, please check back for updates!!!

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Godfrey Benjamin

Benjamin Godfrey is a blockchain enthusiast and journalists who relish writing about the real life applications of blockchain technology and innovations to drive general acceptance and worldwide integration of the emerging technology. His desires to educate people about cryptocurrencies inspires his contributions to renowned blockchain based media and sites. Benjamin Godfrey is a lover of sports and agriculture.

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Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.





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Aave

AAVE Price Eyes $200 as Whale Buying Sphere Hits Key Fibonacci Support

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AAVE price displays a modest downtick of 0.83% during Sunday’s low volatility trading. The pullback temporarily stalled the current recovery but allowed buyers to replenish the bullish momentum before the next leap. Amid the formation of a bullish reversal pattern, the recently recorded whale buying positions AAVE price for a sustained rally.

AAVE Price Targets $200 as Whale Buying Spree Aligns with Fibonacci Support

According to Lookonchain analytics, a crypto whale recently bought 31,173 AAVE tokens worth around $4.8 million and deposited them into Aave. Shortly after, the whale borrowed around 2.7M GHO stablecoin from the Aave protocol and swapped them for USDC.

These stablecoins were deposited into the Coinbase exchange to acquire more AAVE, projecting a bullish outlook for this smart money. The use of GHO, a stablecoin associated with Aave, further showcases confidence in the Aave ecosystem.

The supply distribution metric from Santiment indicates that large holders with wallet sizes between 1 million to 10 million AAVE initiated a buying spree in August. This accumulation has now reached 4.17 million AAVE, highlighting strong whale activity. 

This trend suggests increasing confidence among large investors in AAVE’s price potential, possibly hinting at further upside momentum in the market.

Aave [on Ethereum]Aave [on Ethereum]
AAVE Supply Distribution | Santiment

AAVE Hint Major Reversal Pattern Breakout

Following the early October sell-off, the AAVE price managed to stabilize above $135 support since last week. This support is reinforced by both the 50-day exponential moving average and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, providing a solid foundation for a potential price reversal.

The 38.2% FIB is typically seen as an ideal pullback zone for buyers to regain control after a period of exhausted bullish momentum. The recent reversal has uplifted asset 12% up to trade at $152.5 and formed a bullish reversal pattern called a double bottom.

The chart setup resembles a ‘W’ letter and indicates a renewed bullish momentum for a breakout opportunity. If the pattern holds true, the AAVE price rally could breach the $154.8 neckline and drive a post-breakout rally to $180, followed by $200.

 AAVE Price AAVE Price
AAVE/USDT – 1d Chart

Alternatively, if the AAVE buyers fail to sustain a neckline breakout, the sellers could revert the price lower and seek support at the $115 level.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Recent whale buying has significantly boosted confidence in AAVE, with large holders accumulating 4.17 million AAVE. This activity, aligned with key Fibonacci support, is pushing the price toward the $200 target.

The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level has provided a key pullback zone, allowing buyers to regain control and pushing AAVE’s price recovery

AAVE has formed a double bottom pattern on the daily chart, which suggests a bullish reversal

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Sahil Mahadik

Sahil is a dedicated full-time trader with over three years of experience in the financial markets. Armed with a strong grasp of technical analysis, he keeps a vigilant eye on the daily price movements of top assets and indices. Drawn by his fascination with financial instruments, Sahil enthusiastically embraced the emerging realm of cryptocurrency, where he continues to explore opportunities driven by his passion for trading

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.





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AAVE Price Eyes $200 Push as Buyers Conclude Two-Year Accumulation

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The AAVE price surged 3% during the Sunday training session, defying the low volatility momentum in the broader crypto market. This high-momentum rally pushed the asset to a peak of $162.5, a level not seen since May 2022. This movement indicates a significant breakout from the two-year accumulation phase, signaling the potential rally to $200.

AAVE Price Gears Up for $200 Surge After Two Years of Accumulation

Defying the ongoing consolidation trend in crypto markets, the AAVE price showcased a sustained recovery since July 2024 with new higher-high and higher-low formations in the daily chart. The bullish upswing uplifted the asset from $71 to $158, registering a growth of 123%. Consecutively, the market cap surged to $2.364 billion.

With an intraday gain of 5%, the AAVE price surged to $162.46 high, a level last recorded on May 5th, 2022. This upswing signals the end of a two-year accumulation trend, also highlighted by the founder of DefianceCapital, Arthur. According to his tweet, this breakout could signal a potential all-time high (ATH) reclaim, marking a significant moment in the ongoing DeFi resurgence. 

If the daily candle closes above $153, the buyers could drive a 25% upswing to challenge the $200 resistance, followed by an extended rally to $260.

A positive alignment between the daily Exponential moving average (20, 50, 100, and 200) indicates a high momentum in action. 

AAVE PriceAAVE Price
AAVE/USDT -1d Chart

According to Santiment data, the percentage of AAVE held by top addresses has steadily climbed to 55%. While a high value may signal centralization risk, it also indicates an accumulation trend among large holders and their confidence in future trends.

Moreover, the relatively low supply of AAVE on exchanges suggests reduced selling pressure, which is often a bullish signal, as fewer tokens are available for immediate sale.

AAVEAAVE
Santiment

On the contrary, if the AAVE price fails to sustain the $153 resistance breakout, the sellers could drive a bearish pullback to 20-or-50-day EMA.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Yes, AAVE has broken out of a two-year accumulation phase, reaching a high of $162.5. If the price sustains above the key $153 resistance level, a potential 25% rally toward $200 is likely.

The postive alignment of the 20-50-100-and-200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) indicates strong bullish momentum

If AAVE price fails to sustain the $153 breakout, sellers could trigger a bearish pullback

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Sahil Mahadik

Sahil is a dedicated full-time trader with over three years of experience in the financial markets. Armed with a strong grasp of technical analysis, he keeps a vigilant eye on the daily price movements of top assets and indices. Drawn by his fascination with financial instruments, Sahil enthusiastically embraced the emerging realm of cryptocurrency, where he continues to explore opportunities driven by his passion for trading

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.





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