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Bitcoin price analysis

Is Bitcoin Price Correction Over? Investor Shakeout Signals Potential Recovery

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1 month ago

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The Bitcoin price slightly increased by 0.9% to $60052 during the Sunday trading session. However, the BTC price has been wavering around this psychological level for the last two weeks, and a low volatile weekend does not confirm its suitability. Will the recovery trend resume, or sellers will counterattack for prolonged correction? 

Bitcoin Price Analysis Hints Recovery Amid Flag Pattern Formation

In the last two weeks, the Bitcoin price showed a notable reversal from $49000 to $60052, registering a 22% gain. Consecutively, the market cap jumped to $1.182 Billion. This bullish turnaround above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level projected a healthy correction needed to recuperate the exhausted bullish momentum.

Moreover, an analysis of daily charts shows the formation of a bullish continuation pattern called a flag. This pattern consists of two downsloping trend lines, which drive a temporary counter-trend move before a strong breakout.

If the pattern holds true, the Bitcoin price prediction hints at a 14.6% rally to challenge the flag resistance at $68714. An upside breakout from this resistance will better confirm the end-of-consolidation trend.

The BTC price above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average hints at a broader market trend turning bullish.

Bitcoin Price AnalysisBitcoin Price Analysis
BTC/USDT – 1d Chart

Negative NRPL Ratio Points to BTC Market Bottom

Data from Cryptoquant shows the BTC-Daily Realized Profit Loss Ratio dips to the negative region amid recent market correction. This metric tracks the ratio of realized profits to realized losses on the Bitcoin network, which is essential to determining the market sentiment and identifying potential turning points.

Last Thursday, Bitcoin price reversal from $56,000 saw the NRPL ratio drop to -152,121,989, highlighting that realized losses have surpassed profits. This shift suggests weaker hands have exited the market, potentially reducing selling pressure. As a result, the asset could witness an inflow of fresh accumulation, setting the stage for a potential upward breakout.

The metric movement toward higher realized losses compared to profits is often observed at the bottom of a market correction, signaling a significant shift is underway.

Net Realized Profit and Loss (NRPL)Net Realized Profit and Loss (NRPL)
Net Realized Profit and Loss (NRPL)| Cryptoquant

On the contrary, if the bitcoin price fails a 200-day EMA breakout, the sellers could strengthen their grip to prolong the correction trendline. A bearish breakdown below the flag pattern support will invalidate the bullish and plunge the asset below $50000.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

The flag pattern, a bullish continuation formation, suggests that Bitcoin may experience a 14.6% rally to challenge the flag resistance at $68,715.

On-chain data, specifically the Daily Realized Profit Loss (NRPL) Ratio, shows that realized losses have surpassed profits, often signaling the end of a market correction.

A bearish breakdown below the flag pattern support or failure to maintain the 200-day EMA could invalidate the bullish outlook.

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Sahil Mahadik

Sahil is a dedicated full-time trader with over three years of experience in the financial markets. Armed with a strong grasp of technical analysis, he keeps a vigilant eye on the daily price movements of top assets and indices. Drawn by his fascination with financial instruments, Sahil enthusiastically embraced the emerging realm of cryptocurrency, where he continues to explore opportunities driven by his passion for trading

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.





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Bitcoin price analysis

Bitcoin Price $60K Breakout Meets Major Accumulation; Is ATH Next Stop?

Published

4 days ago

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September 15, 2024

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Bitcoin Price jumped 0.34% during the Sunday trading session, showcasing its sustainability above the $60000 psychological level. The bullish momentum is fueled by whale/institution accumulation and market anticipation of a 0.5% interest rate cut in the September FOMC meeting. 

Will Whale Accumulation Drive Bitcoin Price to New ATH?

According to on-chain data tracker Spotonchain, a giant whale has been actively accumulating Bitcoin since August 29th. So far, the large holder has bought around 3,933 BTC (worth $234 Million) from the crypto exchange Binance with the latest withdrawal occurring earlier today at an approximate price of $59,591 per BTC.

Currently, this whale holds 10,491 BTC (valued at approximately $630 million). Typically, such large transactions boast market confidence, as a price rally follows whales/smart money buying. 

However, the same whale allegedly dumped 7,790 BTC (around $467 million) around June 27 and July 8, 2024, to Binance at ~$59,953, contributing to a sharp 14% decrease in Bitcoin price.

Anyhow, the business intelligence company Microstrategy has recently increased its Bitcoin holding by acquiring 18,300 BTC worth $1.11 billion. This purchase brings the company’s total Bitcoin holdings to 244,800 BTC, as Executive Chairman Michael Saylor revealed.

Along with whale/institutional buying, the Bitcoin price rally to $60000 is more likely driven by market anticipation of the September rate cut.

Following the recent cooling of US CPI and PPI inflation figures, speculation is rising over a potential 50 bps rate cut by the US Fed at the upcoming FOMC meeting. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 50% probability of a 0.5% rate cut by the US Federal Reserve and the same bet for a 0.25% rate cut.

Fed Rate cutFed Rate cut
CME FedWatch tool

Typically, a rate cut would allow banks to borrow money more easily for operations, boosting capital flow in the market and encouraging increased investment in riskier assets like cryptocurrency.

BTC Price Poised For Major Breakout

The Bitcoin price at $60174 is just 1% away from a major breakout of the downsloping trendline. The dynamic resistance intact since late July drives the current correction trend, and a potential breakout will boost the bullish momentum. 

If the buyers flip overhead resistance into potential support, the BTC price could target $68000, followed by an all-time high resistance of around $73777.

Bitcoin PriceBitcoin Price
BTC/USDT -1d Chart

On the contrary note, the Bitcoin price prediction shows a notable resistance at the $65800 mark as over 6.84 Million addresses hold approximately 3.1M BTC.

BTC priceBTC price
GIOM | Intotheblock

Therefore, if the potential rebound faces supply pressure at this resistance, the sellers could drive an extended consolation phase for Bitcoin.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

The rally is being fueled by whale and institutional accumulation, along with market anticipation of a 0.5% interest rate cut at the upcoming September FOMC meeting.

The possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut has boosted market confidence, encouraging increased investment in riskier assets like Bitcoin

Bitcoin faces key resistance levels at $65,800, where 6.84 million addresses hold 3.1 million BTC,

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Sahil Mahadik

Sahil is a dedicated full-time trader with over three years of experience in the financial markets. Armed with a strong grasp of technical analysis, he keeps a vigilant eye on the daily price movements of top assets and indices. Drawn by his fascination with financial instruments, Sahil enthusiastically embraced the emerging realm of cryptocurrency, where he continues to explore opportunities driven by his passion for trading

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.





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Bitcoin price analysis

Can US CPI Help Bitcoin Price Recovery After Debate Led Slump?

Published

1 week ago

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September 11, 2024

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Bitcoin (BTC) price, US and Asian markets saw a risk-off conditions as they collapsed after the Trump and Harris debate on September 10. With the US CPI print, Wednesday could see recovery in BTC.

Bitcoin Price Slides After Trump-Harris Debate

The US presidential election debates saw Donald Trump and Kamala Harris butt heads on September 10. Many suggest that Harris took a lead against Trump with her calm and read-set-go attitude. Polymarket data shows that bettors are in favor of Harris winning the debate with her odds reaching 98% as of September 11. On Tuesday, Bitcoin price closed the daily candlestick with a 1.07% gain, but slid down to $56,000 on Wednesday’s early Asian session.

Polymarket: Who Will Win The Trump-Harris Debate?Polymarket: Who Will Win The Trump-Harris Debate?
Polymarket: Who Will Win The Trump-Harris Debate?

Bitcoin was not the only risk-on asset to collapse after the Trump-Harris Debate, US Crude Oil dropped 5% and the HangSeng Index dropped 177 points on September 10. 

Regardless, investors are still wondering – Who won the debate? And how will that impact crypto markets and Bitcoin price? While the Trump-Harris debate could have provided short-term volatility, the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) will also play a critical role in influencing BTC bias.

Here’s Why This US CPI is Pivotal For BTC Price

The forecast for the headline inflation is 2.7%, which is a reduction from the previous month’s 2.9%. However, the consensus stands at 2.6%. Based on these numbers and the actual inflation, there are multiple scenarios how this macroeconomic event could impact BTC price.

  1. Inflation lower than expectations: In this case, it might add fuel to the September 18 Fed rate cut decision and cause risk-on assets like Bitcoin to rally.
  2. Inflation higher than expectations: This outlook could dampen the optimism and temper expectations of a rally in Bitcoin price to $60,000 or higher.
  3. Inflation meets expectations: The crypto markets could rally in anticipation of the Fed rate cut decision on September 18.

Based on the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 100% chance that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates come September 18. The odds of a 25 basis point rate cut stands at 71%, but the upcoming US CPI print will clear the doubts over the size of the rate cuts.

US Fed Target Rate ProbabilitiesUS Fed Target Rate Probabilities
US Fed Target Rate Probabilities

BTC Price Analysis: Is 60K to 70K Possible Before September Ends?

Bitcoin’s daily chart shows a clear downtrend with a string of lower highs and lower lows. The most recent swing low formed on September 6 could be a higher low that kick-starts a recovery rally to key levels like $60,000 or $70,000. However, this outlook is reliant on today’s US CPI print.

From a daily perspective, BTC needs to set up a higher high above $65,000 to ensure the end of the six-month down trending consolidation. If successful, Bitcoin price prediction shows a revisit of the all-time high of $73,805 is likely. The timeline for the above forecast is the fourth quarter, which has been a good time to be bullish based on historical data.

BTC/USDT 1-day chartBTC/USDT 1-day chart
BTC/USDT 1-day chart

On the flipside, if the US CPI print comes in hotter than expectations, the Fed could reduce or alter their rate cut schedule, causing markets to crash. In such a case, Bitcoin price wouldn’t attempt to overcome the $65,000 hurdle, instead crash to the weekly support zone, extending from $50,701 to $52,271.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Bitcoin price slid after the debate, but the upcoming US CPI print could influence a recovery.

Depending on the inflation rate, Bitcoin price could rally, crash, or stabilize.

The forecast is 2.7% inflation, which could lead to a Fed rate cut and a potential Bitcoin price rally.

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Akash Girimath

Akash Girimath, an engineer by training, has developed a deep fascination with the complexities of cryptocurrency markets. As a senior reporter and analyst, he specializes in crypto analysis and contributes his expertise to notable platforms such as AMBCrypto and FXStreet. In addition to his analytical work, Akash actively trades cryptocurrencies and manages a small crypto fund for friends and family. His role involves providing insightful market analysis and keeping readers informed about the latest trends in the crypto world. Follow Him on Youtube , X and LInkedIn

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.





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Bitcoin price analysis

Will Bitcoin Price Repeat Its Historic 400-Day Post-Halving Rally?

Published

3 weeks ago

on

September 1, 2024

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The Bitcoin price dipped 1.5% to $58000 during the Sunday trading session. For the past few days, the consolidation of the BTC price below $60000 has accelerated uncertainty in the crypto market. However, despite the fear of recession mounting and substantial outflow from BTC ETFs, the sellers struggle to drive the price lower, indicating buyers’ active accumulation. Is an upward surge imminent?

Bitcoin Price Set for 12% Dip Before a Major Breakout

Since the fourth Bitcoin Halving on April 19th, the BTC price has largely moved sideways, facing difficulties in consistently maintaining a level above $72,000. Now, 135 days post-halving, investors appear to have dwindling enthusiasm for the anticipated post-event rally.

However, a comparative analysis of the Bitcoin price trends following the halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020 suggests a potential rally could occur within 400 days after the halving. 

According to the chart shared by an X (formerly known as Twitter) user, @degengambleh, this recurring pattern indicates that significant price surges have consistently followed Bitcoin halvings, suggesting a similar outcome may be on the horizon for 2024.

By the press time, Bitcoin price trades at $58165 while boosting a market cap of $1.148 Trillion. With the current negative trend, the asset could plunge 12% to retest the combined support of $50000 and Flag pattern support.

This chart setup consists of two downsloping trendlines driving a temporary counter-trend move for buyers to recuperate the bullish momentum. Thus, the potential dip could renew the bullish momentum for Bitcoin price prediction and bolster an espace from the current consolidation with a flag breakout.

The post-breakout rally could drive the BTC price to $83450.

Bitcoin (BTC) priceBitcoin (BTC) price
BTC/USDT – 1d Chart

Additionally, data from Santiment analytics highlights a notable accumulation trend among Bitcoin whales. Addresses holding between 100,000 and 1,000,000 BTC have been actively increasing their holdings since late July. 

The yellow line in the chart tracks this metric, which now stands at approximately 702,790 BTC, indicating that major investors are confident in potential future price gains for this asset.

BTC Supply DistributionBTC Supply Distribution
BTC Supply Distribution | Santiment

However, the daily EMAs (20, 50, 100, and 200) nearing a bearish crossover indicate the current consolidation could extend a bit further. 

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Historically, Bitcoin has shown significant price rallies within 400-500 days following each halving event, often leading to new all-time highs

The potential 12% dip could see Bitcoin retest the major support level around $50,000, which aligns with the bull flag pattern

Data from Santiment analytics shows that Bitcoin whales, specifically addresses holding between 100,000 and 1,000,000 BTC, have been increasing their holdings since late July.

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Sahil Mahadik

Sahil is a dedicated full-time trader with over three years of experience in the financial markets. Armed with a strong grasp of technical analysis, he keeps a vigilant eye on the daily price movements of top assets and indices. Drawn by his fascination with financial instruments, Sahil enthusiastically embraced the emerging realm of cryptocurrency, where he continues to explore opportunities driven by his passion for trading

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.





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