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JPMorgan Chase Sees One Stock Market Index Outperforming S&P 500 Over Next 15 Years Amid US Policy Uncertainty, Declining Consumer Confidence

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Bank behemoth JPMorgan Chase says one stock market index looks primed to pull off a reversal and outperform the S&P 500 in the next decade.

In a new investment strategy note, JPMorgan analysts Andrew VanWazer and William M. Smith say that the S&P 500 has meaningfully outshone the MSCI EAFE Index over a period of about 16 years, but that may start to change.

The MSCI EAFE Index tracks the performance of the stocks of large and mid-cap firms in Europe, Australasia and the Far East. Investors use the index as a benchmark for the performance of international equity portfolios.

VanWazer and Smith say,

“Since mid-2008, the S&P 500 has beaten the MSCI EAFE Index by a sizable margin, delivering average annual returns of 11.9% versus 3.6% through December 2024.”

Source: JPMorgan

But JPMorgan says that US market exceptionalism is now starting to crack, particularly in the tech sector, following China’s announcement that artificial intelligence (AI) startup DeepSeek had launched a model that can compete against America’s finest AI platforms.

“As soon as the news about DeepSeek broke, for example, the US market’s relative valuation to EAFE dropped from 55% to 49% – since then, it has declined further, to 39% (as of March 11th).”

According to the JPMorgan analysts, uncertainties surrounding US economic and foreign policies, souring consumer confidence, increasing inflation due to Trump’s tariffs and the potential resolution of the Ukraine war could serve as catalysts for a shift in market leadership.

“JPMorgan Asset Management’s Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions (LTCMAs) forecast that EAFE stocks may outperform US stocks by 1.4% (8.1% versus 6.7%) over a 10- to 15-year investment horizon. Many investors have been skeptical of that prediction, but recent market events have underscored how vulnerable US equities may be to higher tech-stock volatility, the threat of trade tariffs and declining US consumer confidence.”

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Hackers Hammer Android and iPhone Users As Bank Account Attacks Surge 258% in One Year: Kaspersky

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The number of Android and iPhone users hit by bank malware is skyrocketing as criminals increasingly shift to mobile devices.

In a new report, the cybersecurity firm Kaspersky says the number of smartphone users who encountered banking malware in 2024 soared 258% year-on-year.

“In 2024, the number of users who encountered mobile banking Trojans grew 3.6 times compared to 2023: from 69,200 to 247,949.”

The most active mobile malware targeting bank accounts was Mamont, commanding a market share of approximately 36.7% in 2024.

“This malware first appeared at the end of 2023 and is distributed mostly in Russia and the CIS. Its distribution schemes are ranging from ages-old “Is that you in the picture?” scams to complex social engineering plots with fake stores and delivery tracking apps.”

Countries in Europe and Asia were the most heavily impacted by mobile banking malware in the last year.

As for banking malware targeting PCs (personal computers), some of the most significantly impacted countries in 2024 were in Central Asia, Kaspersky says.

“As in 2023, the highest share of banking Trojans was registered in Afghanistan, where it rose from 6% to 9% in 2024. Turkmenistan was next (as in 2023), where the figure rose from 5.2% to 8.8%, and Tajikistan was in third place (again), where the figure rose from 3.7% to 6.2%.”

Going forward, Kaspersky’s senior web content analyst Olga Svistunova, says the level of sophistication that cybercriminals employ to reach users is only going to rise.

“Looking ahead, we expect financial phishing to become even more personalized and targeted, focusing on exploiting vulnerabilities in everyday digital habits, which will demand increased vigilance and thorough approaches to protection.”

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Chase and PayPal Scam Drains $30,000 From Victims’ Bank Accounts: Report

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A scammer masquerading as JPMorgan Chase and PayPal allegedly managed to drain a total of $30,000 from victims’ bank accounts before the scheme unraveled.

The victims say they received emails that appeared to be from PayPal, warning them about a large and potentially unauthorized Bitcoin purchase, reports CBS 12.

When calling the number provided in the emails, the victims say they were connected to someone claiming to work at Chase’s fraud department, who said they faced arrest for money laundering.

They were then transferred to a fake FBI agent who instructed them to withdraw cash totaling $18,000 from the first victim and $12,000 from the second – and hand it to a man who would come over and visit them at their homes in Florida.

The Palm Beach County Sheriff’s Office says Wilkens Eugene was arrested after the second victim was contacted a second time and instructed to hand more money over.

“The affidavit continues that she was contacted again, and this time asked to remove $60,000. It was at this time that the second victim believed she was being scammed.”

At that point, authorities say they worked with the second victim to arrest the suspect.

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Insider at Major US Bank Quietly Drains $180,000 From Two Customers’ Accounts, Alleges Department of Justice

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An insider at a bank with branches across the US is accused of forging documents to steal funds from customers’ accounts.

The Department of Justice (DOJ) says that while working as a teller at the unnamed bank’s branch in Boston, Massachusetts, Derek Aut lifted $180,000 from the accounts of two customers.

To carry out his scheme, Aut allegedly forged the names of the customers on the withdrawal slips, among other techniques.

After the first theft was discovered, Aut siphoned funds from another bank account to replace the missing money.

“When one of the victims noticed money missing from her account, Aut allegedly attempted to cover his theft by taking money from the other victim’s account and depositing it into the first victim’s account.”

The initial criminal charges against Aut were filed in December of 2024.

The charges now include embezzlement by a bank employee and aggravated identity theft. Aut, who has agreed to plead guilty to the charges, faces years in prison and a monetary fine.

“The charge of embezzlement by a bank employee provides for a sentence of up to 30 years in prison, five years of supervised release and a $1 million fine. The charge of aggravated identity theft provides for a mandatory sentence of two years in prison to be served consecutive to any other sentence imposed. Sentences are imposed by a federal district court judge based upon the U.S. Sentencing Guidelines and other statutory factors.”

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