Markets
Kamala Harris Presidential Odds Tie With Trump’s on Polymarket
Published
5 months agoon
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adminVice President Kamala Harris is now tied with former president Donald Trump at 49% among bettors looking to predict the next occupant of the White House on crypto prediction platform Polymarket. The wager is the single largest betting pool on the site, with over $541 million riding on the contest.
The milestone comes the day after Harris announced Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate—a development that confounded Polymarket users that had heavily favored Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro.
As Polymarket noted the tie on Twitter, Harris and Walz—as well as Donald Trump’s running mate, J.D. Vance (R-OH)—are both campaigning in Michigan.
Harris odds on the site have risen steadily since July 21, when Biden dropped out. At the time, her odds were 30% compared to Trump’s at 64%. At that point, as Biden was recovering from COVID-19 and rumors of his withdrawal were widespread, the president’s odds had already slipped to 7%.
Prediction markets like Polymarket are often touted as meaningful sources of probabilities and predictors of market sentiment, in contrast to public opinion polls. Prediction market participants are self-selecting, however, and Polymarket, in particular, skews heavily in favor of crypto users, which uses Polygon, a layer-2 scaling solution on the Ethereum blockchain.
Polymarket odds are often quick to react to breaking news, such as the assassination attempt on Trump. Harris’ choice of Walz over Shapiro on Tuesday, meanwhile, shows that prediction markets can miss the mark.
The platform recently picked up prominent statistician Nate Silver as an advisor. Silver’s previous polling aggregator, FiveThirtyEight, is now owned by ABC under the name 538, while Silver publishes his own analysis as Silver Bulletin.
Some personal news! I’m super excited to be working with Shayne and advising @Polymarket. Prediction markets are really having a moment—instantly reacting to things like Biden’s debate performance, for instance. https://t.co/CQyLSe6lto
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) July 17, 2024
Polymarket has been experiencing explosive traffic and popularity in recent weeks, driven largely by the presidential race and U.S. politics. In July, an incredibly chaotic month that included an attempted assassination of Trump and President Joe Biden withdrawing from the race—the site facilitated a record $387 million in trading volume, according to a Dune dashboard. That was more than triple its volume in June.
In fact, one week into August, Polymarket has already racked up $130 million in trades.
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Perp-Focused HyperLiquid Experiences Record $60M in USDC Net Outflows
Published
21 minutes agoon
December 23, 2024By
adminHyperLiquid, a layer-1 blockchain and decentralized exchange for perpetual futures (perps), has experienced a notable outflow of the USDC stablecoin amid speculation North Korean hackers are interacting with the platform, according to a post on X by pseudonymous observer Tay, known for tracking threats posed by to crypto protocols by the country.
A record $60 million of USDC fled the exchange by 10:00 UTC Monday, according to Hashed Official’s Dune-based tracker. USDC, the world’s second-largest dollar-pegged stablecoin, is used as collateral on HyperLiquid. The deposit bridge still holds $2.2 billion in USDC.
Addresses associated with hackers from the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) have accrued losses exceeding $700,000 while trading on HyperLiquid, Tay said. The transactions indicate the hackers are potentially familiarizing themselves with the platform’s inner workings to launch a malicious attack.
“DPRK doesn’t trade. DPRK tests,” Tay said.
CoinDesk contacted HyperLiquid on X for comments on the USDC outflows and potential threat from North Korea.
Tay said they reached out to the platform two weeks ago, offering help in countering a potential threat.
“I really want to emphasize that these are the most sophisticated and rapidly evolving of all of the DPRK threat groups. They are very creative and persistent. They also get their hands on 0days (such as the one Chrome patched today,” Tay’s message to the platform said.
HyperLiquid is the leading on-chain perpetuals exchange, commanding over 50% of the total on-chain perpetuals trading volume, which tallied $8.6 billion in the past 24 hours.
The platform debuted its token HYPE on Nov. 29. Since then, it has
surged over 600% to $28.6, briefly topping $10 billion in market capitalization. As of writing, HYPE was the 22nd largest digital asset in the world, according to Coingecko.
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DeFi
DeFi Protocol Usual’s Surge Catapults Hashnote’s Tokenized Treasury Over BlackRock’s BUIDL
Published
16 hours agoon
December 22, 2024By
adminThere’s been a change of guard at the rankings of the $3.4 billion tokenized Treasuries market.
Asset manager Hashnote’s USYC token zoomed over $1.2 billion in market capitalization, growing five-fold in size over the past three months, rwa.xyz data shows. It has toppled the $450 million BUIDL, issued by asset management behemoth BlackRock and tokenization firm Securitize, which was the largest product by size since April.
USYC is the token representation of the Hashnote International Short Duration Yield Fund, which, according to the company’s website, invests in reverse repo agreements on U.S. government-backed securities and Treasury bills held in custody at the Bank of New York Mellon.
Hashnote’s quick growth underscores the importance of interconnecting tokenized products with decentralized finance (DeFi) applications and presenting their tokens available as building blocks for other products — or composability, in crypto lingo — to scale and reach broader adoption. It also showcases crypto investors’ appetite for yield-generating stablecoins, which are increasingly backed by tokenized products.
USYC, for example, has greatly benefited from the rapid ascent of the budding decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol Usual and its real-world asset-backed, yield-generating stablecoin, USD0.
Usual is pursuing the market share of centralized stablecoins like Tether’s USDT and Circle’s USDC by redistributing a portion of revenues from its stablecoin’s backing assets to holders. USD0 is primarily backed by USYC currently, but the protocol aims to add more RWAs to reserves in the future. It has recently announced the addition of Ethena’s USDtb stablecoin, which is built on top of BUIDL.
“The bull market triggered a massive inflow into stablecoins, yet the core issue with the largest stablecoins remains: they lack rewards for end users and do not give access to the yield they generate,” said David Shuttleworth, partner at Anagram. “Moreover, users do not get access to the protocol’s equity by holding USDT or USDC.”
“Usual’s appeal is that it redistributes the yield along with ownership in the protocol back to users,” he added.
The protocol, and hence its USD0 stablecoin, has raked in $1.3 billion over the past few months as crypto investors chased on-chain yield opportunities. Another significant catalyst of growth was the protocol’s governance token (USUAL) airdrop and exchange listing on Wednesday. USUAL started trading on Binance on Wednesday, and vastly outperformed the shaky broader crypto market, appreciating some 50% since then, per CoinGecko data.
BlackRock’s BUIDL also enjoyed rapid growth earlier this year, driven by DeFi platform Ondo Finance making the token the key reserve asset of its own yield-earning product, the Ondo Short-Term US Government Treasuries (OUSG) token.
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Markets
Chainlink price double bottoms as whales accumulate
Published
20 hours agoon
December 22, 2024By
adminChainlink formed a double-bottom pattern, pointing to a potential rebound, as signs showed that some whales were accumulating the token.
Chainlink (LINK), the biggest oracle provider, bottomed at $20.12 on Friday and rebounded to $22.50 on Sunday, Dec. 22. Still, the coin remains about 27% from its highest point this month, meaning that it is in a bear market.
A potential catalyst for the LINK token is that whales are accumulating it. According to LookOnChain, nine new wallets withdrew 362,380 coins from Binance in the last two days. These coins are now valued at over $8.19 million.
Crypto.news reported last week that another whale accumulated 65,000 LINK coins valued at $1.8 million.
These whales bought Chainlink a week after World Liberty Financial (WLFI), the DeFi platform launched by the Trump family, bought over 78,300 LINK tokens valued at over $1.7 million. It’s worth noting that President-elect Trump and his family mostly own WLFI tokens.
Chainlink, known in the crypto industry for its fundamentals, is the biggest oracle in the sector with over $35 billion in total value secured. That figure is higher than its biggest competitors like Chronicle, Pyth, Edge, and Redstone.
Chainlink’s ecosystem will likely grow as more chains and networks embrace its technology. Justin Sun’s Tron, the most recent chain to use its oracles, has switched from WINKLink to Chainlink.
Chainlink has also formed major partnerships in the Real World Asset tokenization industry, including by companies like Coinbase, Emirates NBD, SWIFT, and UBS.
Chainlink price formed a double-bottom pattern
LINK, like other cryptocurrencies, has dropped sharply in the past few days as concerns about the Federal Reserve remained.
The token has remained above the 50-day moving average on the daily chart. Most importantly, it has formed a double-bottom chart pattern at $20.12. This pattern happens when an asset fails to move below a specific price two times. It is one of the most bullish reversal patterns in the market.
LINK has also formed an inverse hammer pattern, a popular reversal sign. Therefore, the coin is likely to bounce back in the next few days as investors target the key psychological at $30, which is about 35% above the current level.
On the flip side, the bullish view will become invalid if the coin drops below the double-bottom point at $20.12.
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