The reason behind the stagnant XRP price growth has remained a mystery, with many crypto analysts pointing to legal disputes and market volatility as key factors holding back its momentum. However, even during favorable market conditions and after gaining legal clarity following multiple Ripple Court wins against the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), XRP has still failed to experience a notable upward surge. 

As a result, investors have questioned the cryptocurrency’s sluggish price growth, prompting a crypto analyst to provide a detailed explanation of why XRP remains at a low price, barely showing signs of a feasible rally.  

Why XRP Price Struggles To Gain Momentum

On October 13, a crypto analyst and researcher known as ‘Crypto Tank’ took to X (formerly Twitter) to discuss the reasons why the XRP price is not moving. In the lengthy X post, the analyst explained that the XRP price was determined by dividing the volume of XRP actively being used on the ledger by its circulating supply. 

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According to Crypto Tank, XRP investors have this misconception that the total XRP in circulation is about 56 billion. However, this figure is misleading as a large portion of XRP’s supply is held in various private wallets by large-scale holders, also called “Whales.” This means that most of XRP’s supply is not actively being used in the market, but is held firmly in these wallets. 

The analyst revealed that what truly matters for XRP’s price movements is how much of the circulating supply is used to actively engage in transactions on the XRP ledger. Currently, only about 20% of the total XRP supply is actively engaged on the XRP Ledger daily. 

For XRP to be used to execute transactions, it often needs to be paired with Automated Market Makers (AMMs), which provide liquidity during trades. These liquidity pools are important for XRP to conduct global settlements, as only ample liquidity can facilitate these enormous transactions which extend to trillions of dollars. This need for substantial liquidity in the XRP Ledger is what limits its price movements. 

Following the analyst’s report, it is clear that XRP’s price struggles are more complicated than mere market volatility. Its ongoing legal dispute with the SEC also adds uncertainty to any potential price increases in the future. 

Analyst Unveils XRP Road Map To $500

While discussing the reasons why XRP’s price has remained stagnant, Crypto Tank also unveiled a road map for how XRP could reach $500. The analyst explains that if XRP could become widely adopted for global settlements like SWIFT, it could potentially reach this price target. 

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He disclosed that an increase in market capitalization or retail investors does not matter, as XRP would only surge to the projected $500 price if it can handle large institutional transactions through deep liquidity pools and AMMs. 

Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Amid ongoing regulatory battles and market uncertainty, investors are questioning the future of the XRP price. The SEC’s efforts to overturn the non-security ruling have heightened fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD), raising concerns about whether XRP could face a catastrophic drop to zero. With the cryptocurrency’s volatility and a long-standing lawsuit, many wonder if XRP will succumb to the pressure. What is the likelihood of such a scenario?

The price of XRP hit a low of $0.3834 on July 1 before surging 72% to $0.6645 on Sept. 23. The price has since retraced and is hovering around $0.54.

Is XRP Price Destined to Go to Zero?

Investors and analysts debate the possibility that XRP could drop to zero. While some believe regulatory challenges and market dynamics could drive the price down, others argue that XRP’s utility and adoption will prevent such an outcome.  Some of the reasons why the XRP price could drop to zero include: 

• The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) managed to twist the case in their favor, overturning the XRP non-security ruling. This move would likely instill panic and FUD in the market, driving the asset’s price to new all-time lows.
• Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto being revealed could impact the price of XRP and every other crypto as it would lead to movement of his 1.1 million BTC. Such an influx into the market would cause significant price drops as panic grips investors.
• Stiff competition in the market with the likes of Hedera Hashgraph (HBAR), Algorand (ALGO), and Chainlink (LINK) is making significant strides with their rate of adoption by financial institutions—Ripple’s main clientele.

Despite these circumstances that threaten the XRP price, Ripple’s efforts to expand its use cases and partnerships could provide a buffer against a complete price collapse. Additionally, the broader cryptocurrency market trends and Bitcoin’s performance often play a crucial role in determining the direction of crypto prices.

Currently, the Ripple price is trading around $0.5399, and despite facing significant legal hurdles, it has maintained a relatively stable position in the market. The average cost for Ripple in 2024 is currently standing at $0.57. That means everyone who bought above that price is currently sitting in losses.

Ripple Price Analysis: What’s Next for XRP?

XRP has shown resilience despite the bearish sentiment. The price has been fluctuating within a tight range, with significant support levels around $0.50 and $0.64. Technical indicators suggest that the asset might experience further volatility, but a complete drop to zero seems unlikely in the near term.

Historically, the XRP price has had only two massive price jumps since its inception in late 2013. The asset bull run happened 252 days after the 2016 Bitcoin halving, pushing the asset 41,000% up. However, the second halving found XRP entangled with the SEC in a lawsuit, and the resulting bull market saw the asset rise by only 1,000% 232 days after halving. Nevertheless, this was still commendable, given the vice grip by the SEC.

The average waiting duration for the two waiting durations following the halving before the XRP rally kicked off is 241 days. Given that it has been 175 days since the 2024 bitcoin halving, the XRP bull market could begin in 66 days, surging 21,000% to $132.

Interestingly, December 19, 2024, is 66 days from today, marking five years since the SEC v. Ripple lawsuit began. If Ripple can overcome its legal challenges and continue to secure strategic partnerships, it could see an XRP price recovery. On the other hand, if the regulatory environment worsens or if Ripple fails to deliver on its promises, the price could face downward pressure. 

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Evans Karanja

Evans Karanja is a crypto analyst and journalist with a deep focus on blockchain technology, cryptocurrency, and the video gaming industry. His extensive experience includes collaborating with various startups to deliver insightful and high-quality analyses that resonate with their target audiences. As an avid crypto trader and investor, Evans is passionate about the transformative potential of blockchain across diverse sectors. Outside of his professional pursuits, he enjoys playing video games and exploring scenic waterfalls.

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.