Cardano
Last Fed rate cut sent Cardano crashing 57% – what about now?
Cardano dropped 57% when the Federal Reserve cut rates back in 2019. With another rate cut on the horizon, the cryptocurrency faces a similar setup that could bring major downside.
Cardano prepares for September decline
In May 2019, the Federal Reserve initiated its first rate cut, lowering rates from 2.42% to 2.39%. Rates at that time were much lower than today, and the public debt stood at $22 trillion. Today, debt has increased to nearly $35 trillion, and interest rates now stand at 5.33%, more than double the 2019 levels.
When the rates started to fall in 2019, Cardano experienced a sudden drop. After a brief period of recovery, the downtrend continued for months until early 2020. An uptrend emerged later, but the market downturn during the COVID-19 pandemic coincided with further rate cuts. Despite uncertainties around the exact link between rate cuts and crypto declines, Cardano and the broader market saw a clear decrease in value.
A similar scenario could unfold today. Crypto has shown correlations with traditional finance in the past, including during the 2019 rate cut. The Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting is likely to result in a rate cut based on CME data. If the market follows the 2019 pattern, Cardano could face a multi-month decline, which could last until the end of the year, before recovering in early 2025. A repeat of the previous trend could push Cardano’s price down to around $0.15.
Additionally, September has often proven to be a tough month for both stocks and crypto. In September 2020, during a halving year, Cardano also faced a downtrend. Coupled with the current 10% drop since the start of this month, these factors could drive Cardano toward a deeper fall in the weeks and months ahead below its 2022 support line at $0.2349.
Cardano’s bearish momentum grows with SRSI, MACD, and VRVP
Many traders focus on short-term movements, but stepping back for a longer-term view can give a better sense of the bigger picture. Cardano’s monthly Stochastic RSI (SRSI) and MACD are flashing warning signs that shouldn’t be ignored, and both are painting a rough picture for ADA.
The SRSI tracks momentum by looking at an asset’s price range over time. The scale goes from 0 to 100, with anything below 20 showing oversold conditions. Since March 2024, the SRSI has been sliding, and it’s now closing in on that oversold region.
The MACD, meanwhile, is showing similar bearish vibes. On the monthly chart, the MACD line has already crossed below the signal line, which is a sign of downward pressure. The histogram, which shows the gap between the two lines, is about to flip red, also pointing to a growing bearish momentum.
Alongside the bearish signals from the Stochastic RSI and MACD, the Visible Range Volume Profile (VRVP) adds even more negative pressure to the outlook. The VRVP shows where most trading volumes occurred at various price levels. In Cardano’s case, the volume bars within the current price range are quite thin, which indicates weak support. The biggest volume bar begins at the $0.15 level, suggesting a strong support zone there. Below the current price, there’s a gap in the volume profile, which means if Cardano continues to fall, there’s little trading activity to slow down the drop until it reaches that $0.15 zone.
Is Cardano’s 2022 support line strong enough to hold?
Despite the bearish indicators, a couple of factors could prevent Cardano from dropping sharply. At the moment, the price sits within a macro Fibonacci golden pocket, drawn from the all-time low to the recent high in March 2024. This zone, between $0.2951 and $0.3204, has acted as support for now. However, when looking at other Fibonacci retracements from different points, ADA has already fallen below the 78.6% retracement on every one of them. This could raise doubts about the strength of the current golden pocket, as there’s a possibility it may not hold up in the long term.
A stronger support level, however, lies at $0.2349, a line that was respected during the 2022 bear market. But, with ADA currently around $0.315, a drop to that support would still represent a 25% decline, which would be far from ideal.
Strategic considerations
In our view, there could be a dead cat bounce before the September 18 Fed meeting. However, after that, ADA is likely to face a 2-3 month downtrend until the Fed slows the pace of its rate cuts. A more cautious strategy would be to wait for ADA to drop below the $0.2951 golden pocket before shorting. This offers a safer entry point compared to shorting immediately right now, as Cardano could see a short-term uptrend while holding above the golden pocket. If the price falls below this level, shorting down to $0.2349 becomes a more calculated move.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
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The overall bearish sentiment for Cardano (ADA) continues to rise as analysts now foresee a massive 33% price crash for the altcoin. This pessimistic projection comes as ADA struggles to gain traction in the market, with its value remaining stagnant or steadily dropping to lower levels.
Cardano (ADA) Crash Incoming
Compared to other prominent altcoins in the crypto market, Cardano has performed poorly, struggling with price declines and sluggish growth. Consequently, a crypto analyst, identified as ‘Financialfreedomgoals’ on TradingView, predicted that cryptocurrency is likely to experience more than a 30% crash to new lows.
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The analyst notes the broader negative state of the current crypto market, highlighting that most altcoins are stuck in a “bearish rut.” He disclosed that rather than achieving new all-time highs, these coins have been setting fresh lows, underscoring the persistent downtrend and decreased confidence amongst investors.
Cardano, in particular, has had its share of negative sentiment and volatility. The cryptocurrency has stayed unwaveringly below the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) 200 line, a key technical indicator traders often use to gauge long-term trends. Typically, when the price of a cryptocurrency stays below this line, it tends to signal a continuation of a bearish trend.
Given the present bearish state of the market, the crypto analyst has dismissed the idea of an upcoming altcoin season, where the majority of cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin experience significant price gains.
On the daily time frame, Cardano is trading below the EMA 200 line and the bearish trend line. Initially, a rising wedge pattern had formed on the cryptocurrency’s price chart, however instead of breaking out, Cardano saw a series of negative candlesticks alongside a bearish crossover on the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD).
This series of negative indicators suggests that bears may be tightening their grip on Cardano’s price. As such, the crypto analyst foresees the ADA continuing its descent to reach fresh lows at target areas: 0.2506 or 0.2197. These targets are calculated using the Fibonacci retracement ratios of 1.272 and 1.618.
0.3815 Resistance Could Trigger Bullish Surge
Despite maintaining a largely bearish stance on Cardano’s price outlook, Financialfreedomgoals has hinted at a potential bullish turnaround. He has suggested that a price reversal for ADA could be possible if the price of the cryptocurrency manages to break above the key resistance at 0.3815 Fibonacci level.
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Crypto analyst Sssebi shares an even greater bullish outlook for Cardano. He highlights that during the previous bull market, ADA’s value increased by more than 100X. As a result, the analyst believes that ADA will rally by at least 20X in this current market cycle, expressing even stronger confidence that the cryptocurrency will reach $5 soon.
As of writing, the price of ADA is trading at $0.3576, reflecting a significant increase of 11.39% over the past week, according to CoinMarketCap.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
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The BTC price surged 3.2% during the U.S trading session on Friday, nearly retesting the $60000 psychological level. A potential breakout from this resistance could accelerate the ongoing recovery and drive a rally to $70000. Here are five altcoins to watch amid a renewed bullish trend.
5 Altcoins Poised for Gains as BTC Price Eyes $70K
The BTC price daily chart shows a V-shaped reversal from $52500 to $59900— a 13.5% increase within two weeks. The bullish turnaround can be attributed to the market expecting a potential 50 BPS interest rate cut at the Sept. 18 FOMC meeting. If it happens, Bitcoin could chase $70000 and fuel bullish momentum in these below altcoins.
- XRP
- Cardano (ADA)
- Tron (TRX)
- Polygon (POL)
- Sui
Xrp (XRP)
XRP, the native cryptocurrency of the global payment solution company Ripple, witnessed a massive inflow on Thursday following Grayscale Investments’ relaunching of its XRP Trust. This development suggests growing institutional confidence in XRP and could potentially lead to the introduction of a new crypto exchange-traded trust (ETT) focused on XRP.
The XRP price currently trades at $0.57, registering a 7% jump in the last 48 hours. Consequently, the market cap was boosted to $32.18.
According to the santiment data, the XRP Whales wallet, holding 10 million to 1 billion coins, has shown steady accumulation since January 2022, carrying 6.94 billion XRPs. This indicates rising interest from large holders, bolsters a potential reversal and stable rally.
Cardano (ADA)
Coinciding with other altcoins, Cardano coin showcased a notable bounce from $0.31 to $0.359, accounting for 14.5% growth. If the bullish turnaround sustains, the ADA price could surge another 7% before challenging the overhead trendline intact since May 2024.
A potential breakout from this barrier will signal a change in market sentiment and accelerate the bullish momentum.
In September, the Cardano coin experienced a steady rise in large transaction volumes, currently at 19.37 billion ADA. The consistent increase in large transactions suggests that whales and institutional investors drive the accumulation.
TRON (TRX)
Defying the recovery momentum from fellow altcoins, the TRX price is down 2.1% today to currently trade at $0.148. Several analysts have marked this reversal as a temporary cool-off after the August rally following the launch of the Sunpump meme coin generator.
According to Intotheblock analytics, TRON has seen a significant rise in long-term holders over the past year. The number of long-term holder addresses increased by 237%, reaching nearly 90 million. This trend reflects growing confidence in TRON’s future as more investors opt to hold TRX for extended periods.
Polygon (POL)
Polygon’s native token, POL (formerly MATIC), surged nearly 15% today after Binance announced plans to integrate it into several key products, including Earn, Buy Crypto, Convert, Margin, and Futures.
By press time, the POL price had traded at $0.418 and maintained a market cap of $2.98 billion. The bullish momentum was further accentuated by a sudden spike in the 24-hour active addresses to 1400, according to Santiment data. This indicates a surge in user engagement and activity on the network following the recent migration from MATIC to POL.
Sui (SUI)
Like XRP, the SUI price recently garnered investors’ attention following the launch of Garyscale’s SUI Trust Fund. This new investment vehicle has sparked optimism for SUI’s future, as it opens up institutional access to the asset, increasing potential liquidity and market participation.
The SUI price reacted strongly bullish on Thursday’s announcement and surged around 11.35% to reclaim the $1 mark. According to DeFiLlama, the Total volume locked (TVL) in SUI surged past $700 Million, indicating the investors are actively locking their assets in SUI-based decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms, which could boost the liquidity and sustainability of the protocol.
If bullish momentum is precious, the SUI price could attempt $1.1, and resistance coincides close to an inverted head and shoulder neckline. For a detailed analysis, check the best altcoins to buy article.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
If BTC price breaks the $60K resistance and continues toward $70K, it could create a bullish market environment, driving increased demand for altcoins
Cardano saw a 14.5% price increase from $0.31 to $0.359, with rising large transaction volumes suggesting increased whale and institutional activity.
TRON’s long-term holders grew by 237%, reaching nearly 90 million addresses, signaling investor confidence in TRON’s long-term potential.
Sahil Mahadik
Sahil is a dedicated full-time trader with over three years of experience in the financial markets. Armed with a strong grasp of technical analysis, he keeps a vigilant eye on the daily price movements of top assets and indices. Drawn by his fascination with financial instruments, Sahil enthusiastically embraced the emerging realm of cryptocurrency, where he continues to explore opportunities driven by his passion for trading
Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.
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The XRP price is trading at $0.52, showing an intraday gain of 0.9%. This resilience amid the broader market correction may be attributed to Ripple’s recent developments to enhance programmability on the XRP Ledger (XRPL), expanding smart contract capabilities. However, if XRP price reversal fails, the top coins to watch are Stellar (XLM), Solana (SOL), Cardano (DOGE), Avalanche (AVAX), Plokdaot (DOT)
Cryptos to Watch Amid Ripple’s XRP Future Plans Reveal
Earlier this month, Ripple shared some new insights on the protocol plans to enhance programmability on the XRP Ledger (XRPL). These improvements aim to expand the platform’s smart contract capabilities, allowing developers to build a wider array of decentralized applications (dApps) directly on XRPL.
With the integration of Hooks and sidechains, developers can customize transaction logic and create tailored solutions while maintaining XRP’s high efficiency and low cost. These updates further position XRPL as a powerful tool for DeFi, NFTs, and other use cases, fostering a more versatile and scalable ecosystem.
Stellar (XLM)
Stellar (XLM) leads our top coins to watch as it is the closest competitor to XRP’s goal for a cross-border payment system. The recent update from Brad Garlinhouse indicates Ripple’s dominance in this niche, which impacts Stellar’s user activity.
According to Coinglass data, XLM’s open interest has showcased a sluggish downward trend since late July, settling at $27.4 million. This consolation indicates less interest from market participants in opening new positions, which, if prolonged, creates a negative sentiment.
By the press time, the stellar price prediction shows a current trading price of $0.088, while the market cap holds at $2.6 Billion.
Solana (SOL)
Among the coins to watch, Solana holds its position firmly due to its low transition fees and speed. By press time, the SOL price had traded at $127, while the market was stable at $59.7 billion.
The asset has recently faced a notable correction to $120 following the vampire attack from Tron’s Sunpump platform. As the SOL price stabilized from mounting selling pressure, the network witnessed a sudden spike in new addresses, reaching its peak at 2.81 million, according to the block.
The growth indicates the rising user base and engagement in the Solana network, a core signal to drive natural demand for SOL. For a detailed analysis, check out our top crypto to buy.
Cardano (ADA)
Cardano (ADA) stands for a key player in decentralized applications and sustainability. Its native cryptocurrency, ADA, currently trades at $0.32, while the market cap boosts to $11.7 Billion.
According to Santiment data, the 30-day MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio stands at -5.83, indicating that short-term traders are in a loss position. MVRV ratio measures if an asset is overvalued or undervalued by comparing its current market cap to the price holders paid.
A negative MVRV value often suggests a heightened risk of panic selling, which can extend market corrections. However, such conditions historically signal a potential recovery, as the exit of speculative traders tends to attract long-term investors looking for value.
Avalanche (AVAX)
The layer-1 cryptocurrency Avalanche (AVAX) showcased a V-top reversal from $28 to $21.7 within two weeks, accounting for a 22% loss. Consecutively, the market cap plunged to $11.7.
Despite an active correction trend, the total address with AVAX balance records continue to grow to hit 8.8 Million addresses, according to Intotheblock analytics recently.
This on-chain growth indicates a growing user base and market participation for the AVAX protocol. With sustained buying, the Avalanche price prediction could target a tally past 25.
Polkadot (DOT)
Polkadot (DOT) is a multi-chain blockchain platform that enables different blockchains to interoperate. Under the influence of a downsloping trendline, the DOT price witnessed a steady downfall from $11.8 to $4.08— a 65% decrease in the past six months.
Among other coins to watch, DOT shows Open interest from $387.5 Million to $183 Million, accounting for a 52% drop. The decreasing OI highlights market participants’ disinterest in asset trading, often leading to a prolonged correction.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Key coins to watch include Stellar (XLM), Solana (SOL), Cardano (ADA), Avalanche (AVAX), and Polkadot (DOT).
Solana’s price stability is supported by a growing user base, with new addresses peaking at 2.81 million, indicating rising demand for SOL
Cardano’s 30-day MVRV ratio stands at -5.83, indicating short-term traders are at a loss,
Sahil Mahadik
Sahil is a dedicated full-time trader with over three years of experience in the financial markets. Armed with a strong grasp of technical analysis, he keeps a vigilant eye on the daily price movements of top assets and indices. Drawn by his fascination with financial instruments, Sahil enthusiastically embraced the emerging realm of cryptocurrency, where he continues to explore opportunities driven by his passion for trading
Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.
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