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Last Fed rate cut sent Cardano crashing 57% – what about now?

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Cardano dropped 57% when the Federal Reserve cut rates back in 2019. With another rate cut on the horizon, the cryptocurrency faces a similar setup that could bring major downside.

Cardano prepares for September decline

In May 2019, the Federal Reserve initiated its first rate cut, lowering rates from 2.42% to 2.39%. Rates at that time were much lower than today, and the public debt stood at $22 trillion. Today, debt has increased to nearly $35 trillion, and interest rates now stand at 5.33%, more than double the 2019 levels.

Chart of the week: Last Fed rate cut sent Cardano crashing 57% – what about now? - 1
Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)

When the rates started to fall in 2019, Cardano experienced a sudden drop. After a brief period of recovery, the downtrend continued for months until early 2020. An uptrend emerged later, but the market downturn during the COVID-19 pandemic coincided with further rate cuts. Despite uncertainties around the exact link between rate cuts and crypto declines, Cardano and the broader market saw a clear decrease in value.

Chart of the week: Last Fed rate cut sent Cardano crashing 57% – what about now? - 2

A similar scenario could unfold today. Crypto has shown correlations with traditional finance in the past, including during the 2019 rate cut. The Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting is likely to result in a rate cut based on CME data. If the market follows the 2019 pattern, Cardano could face a multi-month decline, which could last until the end of the year, before recovering in early 2025. A repeat of the previous trend could push Cardano’s price down to around $0.15.

Chart of the week: Last Fed rate cut sent Cardano crashing 57% – what about now? - 3

Additionally, September has often proven to be a tough month for both stocks and crypto. In September 2020, during a halving year, Cardano also faced a downtrend. Coupled with the current 10% drop since the start of this month, these factors could drive Cardano toward a deeper fall in the weeks and months ahead below its 2022 support line at $0.2349.

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Cardano’s bearish momentum grows with SRSI, MACD, and VRVP

Many traders focus on short-term movements, but stepping back for a longer-term view can give a better sense of the bigger picture. Cardano’s monthly Stochastic RSI (SRSI) and MACD are flashing warning signs that shouldn’t be ignored, and both are painting a rough picture for ADA.

The SRSI tracks momentum by looking at an asset’s price range over time. The scale goes from 0 to 100, with anything below 20 showing oversold conditions. Since March 2024, the SRSI has been sliding, and it’s now closing in on that oversold region.

Chart of the week: Last Fed rate cut sent Cardano crashing 57% – what about now? - 5

The MACD, meanwhile, is showing similar bearish vibes. On the monthly chart, the MACD line has already crossed below the signal line, which is a sign of downward pressure. The histogram, which shows the gap between the two lines, is about to flip red, also pointing to a growing bearish momentum.

Chart of the week: Last Fed rate cut sent Cardano crashing 57% – what about now? - 6

Alongside the bearish signals from the Stochastic RSI and MACD, the Visible Range Volume Profile (VRVP) adds even more negative pressure to the outlook. The VRVP shows where most trading volumes occurred at various price levels. In Cardano’s case, the volume bars within the current price range are quite thin, which indicates weak support. The biggest volume bar begins at the $0.15 level, suggesting a strong support zone there. Below the current price, there’s a gap in the volume profile, which means if Cardano continues to fall, there’s little trading activity to slow down the drop until it reaches that $0.15 zone.

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Is Cardano’s 2022 support line strong enough to hold?

Despite the bearish indicators, a couple of factors could prevent Cardano from dropping sharply. At the moment, the price sits within a macro Fibonacci golden pocket, drawn from the all-time low to the recent high in March 2024. This zone, between $0.2951 and $0.3204, has acted as support for now. However, when looking at other Fibonacci retracements from different points, ADA has already fallen below the 78.6% retracement on every one of them. This could raise doubts about the strength of the current golden pocket, as there’s a possibility it may not hold up in the long term.

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A stronger support level, however, lies at $0.2349, a line that was respected during the 2022 bear market. But, with ADA currently around $0.315, a drop to that support would still represent a 25% decline, which would be far from ideal. 

Strategic considerations

In our view, there could be a dead cat bounce before the September 18 Fed meeting. However, after that, ADA is likely to face a 2-3 month downtrend until the Fed slows the pace of its rate cuts. A more cautious strategy would be to wait for ADA to drop below the $0.2951 golden pocket before shorting. This offers a safer entry point compared to shorting immediately right now, as Cardano could see a short-term uptrend while holding above the golden pocket. If the price falls below this level, shorting down to $0.2349 becomes a more calculated move.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.



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Cardano (ADA) Whale Activity Jumps 145%, Mega Rally to $6 Ahead?

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The Cardano (ADA) price has been outperforming the rest of the crypto market today with more than 12% gains while extending the rally to $0.83. This comes amid a staggering 145% surge in the Cardano whale accumulation over the past month. Over the last week, ADA has gained nearly 54% being among the top-performing altcoins, with investors soon eyeing a rally to the crucial milestone of $1.0.

Cardano (ADA) Whale Accumulation Triggers Price Rally?

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez pointed out a significant surge in the Cardano whale activity and accumulation. This shows growing confidence in Cardano’s native token ADA. According to Martinez, wallets holding over $10 million worth of ADA have increased their positions by an impressive 145.72% over the past month.

Courtesy: Ali Charts

Furthermore, the Cardano blockchain has also witnessed a healthy uptick in decentralized finance (DeFi) activity on the network. Cardano’s Total Value Locked (TVL) has surged to $479.8 million, approaching its all-time high as the blockchain continues to gain traction, as per the data from DeFiLlama.

This growth comes amid ADA’s rising price and increased activity across decentralized exchanges (DEXes), lending platforms, and other protocols within the Cardano ecosystem. The momentum underscores the expanding utility and adoption of Cardano’s DeFi infrastructure.

This surge in the DeFi activity along with bullish Cardano on-chain metrics shows that the ADA price rally can continue further from here.

Is ADA Preparing for a Mega Rally to $6?

Blockchain analytics platform Santiment reported that ADA is already decoupling from the altcoin pack with the price approaching an 8-month high. The ADA-to-Bitcoin price ratio is also nearing an 8-month peak, reflecting growing strength against the leading cryptocurrency. Santiment noted that current ADA transaction and whale activity levels were last observed in June, just before a 26% surge in the ADA/BTC pair.

As of press time, the ADA price is trading at $0.786 with a market cap of $27.54 billion and daily trading volume surging by 25% to $2.27 billion.

Courtesy: Santiment

On the other hand, crypto analyst Ali Martinez noted that the Cardano price is showing very similar patterns to the 2020 bull run. Sharing a chart earlier in November, he showed that ADA could be heading for a 2000% rally all the way to $6 while hitting a new ADA all-time high. Martinez wrote:

“I believe Cardano is following a similar pattern to 2020. If history repeats, we might see a pump around November 18—about two weeks after the US elections—and a potential market top by September 2025”.

Courtesy: Ali charts

On the other hand, Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson is putting some focus on their partnership with XRP. Hoskinson recently engaged in a technical exchange with Ripple CTO David Schwartz, capturing the blockchain community’s attention.

The conversation delved into Midnight, Cardano’s privacy-focused blockchain initiative, and XRP, Ripple’s digital asset, sparking excitement about potential collaborations ahead.

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Bhushan Akolkar

Bhushan is a FinTech enthusiast with a keen understanding of financial markets. His interest in economics and finance has led him to focus on emerging Blockchain technology and cryptocurrency markets. He is committed to continuous learning and stays motivated by sharing the knowledge he acquires. In his free time, Bhushan enjoys reading thriller fiction novels and occasionally explores his culinary skills.

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.





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Cardano

Why Cardano Price Jumped 17% After Breaking Resistance

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Cardano (ADA) price has emerged as a top performer in the latest crypto market surge, recording over 17% growth within 24 hours. This significant price increase aligns with gains seen across various cryptocurrencies, reflecting renewed interest and positive momentum in the crypto space.  With ADA breaking key resistance levels, the altcoin shows potential for continued upward movement, signaling a favorable outlook in the evolving digital currency landscape.

Cardano Price Surges 17% After Breaking Key Resistance Level

The latest ADA price has surged 17% in the last 24 hours, reaching $0.4236 and hitting a four-month high. This jump followed a broader market rally, with Cardano rebounding over 23% in the past week after breaking through a multi-month downtrend. The crypto market gained momentum after Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, fueling optimism across digital assets. 

Bitcoin, leading the charge, set a new all-time high of $76,943 on November 7, while Ethereum also rose above $2,900. Cardano’s strong performance highlights renewed investor interest, pushing it past key resistance levels and outperforming other top crypto markets in recent gains.

Address Activity and Whale Transactions Fueling the Surge

Data reveals that Cardano has hit notable milestones during this surge. A record-breaking 37,892 unique ADA addresses engaged in transfers in a single day, marking the highest address activity since early September. 

Furthermore, substantial transactions of $100,000 or more reached 697 on the same day, indicating intensified activity from large investors, or “whales,” the highest count since early September.

The latest rally has pushed Cardano above the $0.43 mark for the first time since July, a promising sign for ADA enthusiasts. This sustained increase in address activity and whale transactions suggests heightened market confidence, with potential FOMO building among retail investors. As Cardano rides this bullish wave, the community watches closely to see if the momentum will continue.

Analyst Eyes 100% Upside for ADA Price

Crypto analyst recently hinted at a promising potential for an ADA price surge. According to his analysis, ADA could witness a 100% upward movement, suggesting a major breakout is on the horizon. The analyst highlights a prolonged period of price consolidation, with ADA forming a consistent descending trendline.

Breaking this trendline could pave the way for significant gains, possibly doubling ADA’s current value. Technical indicators hint at a shift in momentum, adding weight to the analyst’s forecast. The volume profile also shows increased buying interest, indicating rising investor confidence.

Cardano’s recent breakout, record address activity, and rising interest from major investors create a strong case for its growth. The top coin could maintain its momentum with favorable market conditions and potentially approach $1 soon.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Cardano surged after breaking resistance and amid a crypto market rally.

Increased whale activity, high address engagement, and breaking resistance fueled it.

It indicates rising user engagement, which boosts confidence and interest in ADA.

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Coingape Staff

CoinGape comprises an experienced team of native content writers and editors working round the clock to cover news globally and present news as a fact rather than an opinion. CoinGape writers and reporters contributed to this article.

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.





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From Smuggling Gold Out of Africa to Bridging Bitcoin and Cardano

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A longtime regular on the crypto scene, Sovryn and BitcoinOS founder Edan Yago learned the importance of financial sovereignty at an early age.



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