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Mastering Bitcoin On-Chain Data

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Bitcoin’s price movements dominate headlines, but the real story of BTC lies beneath the surface. Beyond technical analysis and price speculation, on-chain data offers an unparalleled view of supply, demand, and investor behavior in real time. By leveraging these insights, traders and investors can anticipate market trends, follow institutional movements, and make data-driven decisions.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here: Mastering Bitcoin On-Chain Data

Realized Price & MVRV Z-Score

On-chain data refers to the publicly available transaction records on Bitcoin’s blockchain. Unlike traditional markets, where investor actions are obscured, Bitcoin’s transparency allows for real-time analysis of every transaction, wallet movement, and network activity. This information helps investors identify major trends, accumulation zones, and potential price inflection points.

One of the most crucial on-chain metrics is Realized Price, which reflects the average cost basis of all BTC in circulation. Unlike traditional assets, where investor cost bases are difficult to determine, Bitcoin provides real-time visibility into when the majority of holders are in profit or loss.

Figure 1: The Realized Price shows the cost-basis for all BTC on the network.

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To enhance the utility of Realized Price, analysts employ the MVRV Z-Score, which measures the deviation between market value and realized value, standardized for Bitcoin’s volatility. This indicator has historically identified optimal buying zones when it enters the lower range and potential overvaluation when it enters the red zone.

Figure 2: MVRV Z-Score has historically identified market tops and bottoms.

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Monitoring Long-Term Holders

Another key metric is the 1+ Year HODL Wave, which tracks Bitcoin addresses that haven’t moved funds for at least a year. A rising HODL wave indicates that investors are choosing to hold, reducing circulating supply and creating upward price pressure. Conversely, when this metric starts declining, it suggests profit-taking and potential distribution.

Figure 3: 1+ Year HODL Wave shows the cyclical nature of BTC holders.

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HODL Waves visualizes the entire distribution of Bitcoin ownership by age bands. Filtering to new market participants of 3 months or less reveals typical retail participation levels. Peaks in short-term holders typically signal market tops, while low levels indicate ideal accumulation zones.

Figure 4: HODL Waves can show when retail is experiencing FOMO.

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Spotting Whale Movements

Supply Adjusted Coin Days Destroyed quantifies the total BTC moved, weighted by how long it was held, and standardizes that data by the circulating supply at that time. For example:

  • 1 BTC held for 100 days → 100 Coin Days Destroyed
  • 0.1 BTC held for 1,000 days → 100 Coin Days Destroyed

This metric is invaluable for detecting whale activity and institutional profit-taking. When long-dormant coins suddenly move, it often signals large holders exiting positions. Historical data confirms that spikes in this data point align with major market tops and bottoms, reinforcing its value in cycle analysis.

Figure 5: Supply Adjusted CDD shows the velocity of BTC transactions.

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Realized Gains & Losses

The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) reveals the profitability of BTC transactions. A SOPR value above 0 indicates that the average Bitcoin being moved is in profit, while a value below 0 means the average sale is at a loss. By observing SOPR spikes, traders can identify euphoric profit-taking, while SOPR declines often accompany bear market capitulations.

Figure 6: SOPR shows the real-time realized euphoria and capitulation.

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Relying on a single metric can be misleading. To increase the probability of accurate signals, investors should seek confluence between multiple on-chain indicators.

For example, when:

  • MVRV Z-score is in the green zone (undervalued)
  • SOPR indicates high realized losses (capitulation)
  • HODL waves show a decline in short-term holders (selling exhaustion)

This alignment historically marks optimal accumulation zones. You should also look for confluence for any planned profit-taking for your BTC holdings, looking for the above metrics all signaling the opposite to outline overheated market conditions.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s on-chain data provides a transparent, real-time view of market dynamics, offering investors an edge in decision-making. By tracking supply trends, investor psychology, and accumulation/distribution cycles, Bitcoiners can better position themselves for long-term success.

Explore live data, charts, indicators, and in-depth research to stay ahead of Bitcoin’s price action at Bitcoin Magazine Pro.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.



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Here’s Why Peter Schiff Predicts Bitcoin (BTC) Price Crash to $10K

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Peter Schiff, a BTC critic, has recently predicted that Bitcoin price could plummet to as low as $10,000. Schiff has expressed concerns over Bitcoin’s long-term viability, particularly in comparison to gold. His argument revolves around Bitcoin’s current performance, which he believes is being driven by short-term hype rather than solid fundamentals.

Schiff’s prediction is particularly alarming for those who view Bitcoin as a store of value. In the current trends, Peter Schiff notes that millions of young people are invested in Bitcoin while gold, a standard hedge, is pushing higher.

This view stems from his assertion that when gold prices rise to new record levels then the value of Bitcoin may plummet.

“By the time they get to their target of $5K for gold, they will drag Bitcoin down to $10K, meaning a drop of 95% from the highest it was valued at in 2021,” Schiff reasoned.

Bitcoin Price Recent Performance Against Gold

Another issue that Schiff dislikes about Bitcoin also revolves around its categorization as a “risk asset.” He says that BTC price movements are synchronized with the rest of the market, especially when investors are more willing to take risks. While gold provides investors with a safe-haven, the Bitcoin price operation is defined as having a volatility closer to that of the traditional markets among investors. Therefore, as argued by Peter Schiff, BTC price may decline as investors turn to the safe-havens, such as gold, in turbulent times.

Market Analyst Weigh In On Bitcoin Trend

Several market analysts are echoing Schiff’s concerns, suggesting that Bitcoin price could face challenges in the near term. Peter Brandt, a veteran trader, has pointed out that Bitcoin might be on a path to $65,635, citing a “bear wedge” pattern that has emerged in the cryptocurrency’s price charts.

Meanwhile, crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe shared his own cautious outlook on Bitcoin’s short-term prospects. Van de Poppe noted that while Bitcoin price has been holding above the $80,000 mark, its price action is starting to show signs of weakness. He added, “It starts to look slightly less good,” and suggested that if Bitcoin falls below $84,000, a deeper correction could be imminent.

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Similarly, the crypto trader TheKingfisher expressed doubts about a sustained bullish recovery, indicating that Bitcoin’s current price movement aligns with a typical market cooldown. He suggested that Bitcoin could be approaching a “seasonal reset” as part of the broader market trend.

Alternative Views on Bitcoin’s Future Trend

Not everyone shares Peter Schiff’s pessimism about Bitcoin price. Charlie Morris, founder of ByteTree, highlighted that despite recent challenges, Bitcoin may have already seen its worst. He explained that while gold ETFs are experiencing slower inflows, Bitcoin could be positioned for a potential recovery.

This view contrasts sharply with Peter Schiff’s, emphasizing that the cryptocurrency may not be as doomed as some critics suggest.

Additionally, Robert Kiyosaki, author of Rich Dad Poor Dad, has weighed in on the broader market of precious metals and cryptocurrencies. While Kiyosaki acknowledged Bitcoin’s role as a hedge against inflation, he predicted that silver would outperform both Bitcoin and gold in the near term

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Kelvin Munene Murithi

Kelvin is a distinguished writer with expertise in crypto and finance, holding a Bachelor’s degree in Actuarial Science. Known for his incisive analysis and insightful content, he possesses a strong command of English and excels in conducting thorough research and delivering timely cryptocurrency market updates.

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.





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Chainlink Monthly Close To Determine LINK’s Fate, $19 Next?

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Amid today’s market correction, Chainlink (LINK) has lost its recent gains, falling back to a crucial support level. An analyst suggests a monthly close above its current range could position the cryptocurrency for a 35% surge.

Chainlink has retraced 9.1% in the past 24 hours to retest the key $14 support zone again. The cryptocurrency surged 15.7% from last Friday’s lows to hit an 18-day high of $16 on Wednesday, momentarily recovering 35% from this month’s low.

However, the recent market correction halted the momentum of most cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin (BTC) falling back to the $83,700 mark and Ethereum (ETH) dipping to the $1,860 support zone.

Today, LINK dropped from $15 to $14.07, losing all its Wednesday gains. Previously, analyst Ali Martinez noted that the cryptocurrency has been in an ascending parallel channel since July 2023.

Chainlink has hovered between the pattern’s upper and lower boundary for the last year and a half, surging to the channel’s upper trendline every time it retested the lower zone before dropping back.

Amid its recent price performance, the cryptocurrency is retesting the channel’s lower boundary, suggesting a bounce to the upper range could come if it holds its current price levels.

Meanwhile, Rekt Capital highlighted that the token is testing its multi-month symmetrical triangle pattern, which could determine the cryptocurrency’s next move.

As the analyst explained, Chainlink consolidated inside a “Macro Triangular market structure” for most of 2024 before breaking out of the pattern during the November market rally.

Chainlink
Chainlink’s price falls back into its Macro Triangle. Source: Rekt Capital

During the Q4 2024 breakout, the cryptocurrency hit a two-year high of $30.9 but failed to hold this level in the following weeks. As a result, it has been in a downtrend for the past three months, with LINK’s price falling back into the Macro Triangle.

“The main goal for LINK here is to retest the top of the pattern to secure a successful post-breakout retest,” Rekt Capital detailed, adding, “It’s possible this is a volatile post-breakout retest.”

Rekt Capital pointed out that, historically, Chainlink has had downside deviations into this price range: “Back in mid-2021, LINK produced a downside deviation into this price area in the form of multiple Monthly downside wicks.”

Nonetheless, the cryptocurrency is downside deviating “but in the form of actual candle-bodies closes rather than downside wicks” this time.

The analyst also highlighted that, like in 2021, LINK is trading within a historical demand area, at around $13-5 and $15.5, testing this zone as support. Based on this, the cryptocurrency must successfully hold this area to “position itself for upside going forward.”

Moreover, the retest is key for reclaiming the top of its triangular market structure. Breaking and recovering that level would “exact a successful post-breakout retest” and enable the price to target the $19 resistance in the future.

The analyst concluded that if LINK closes the month above the triangle top, it “would position price for a successful retest, despite the downside deviation.”

As of this writing, Chainlink trades at $14.09, a 6.9% drop in the monthly timeframe.

chainlink, link, linkusdt
Chainlink’s performance in the two-week chart. Source: LINKUSDT on TradingView

Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com



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Proposed South Carolina Bill Lets State Treasurer Invest 10% Of State Funds In Bitcoin

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Yesterday, Rep. Jordan Pace reintroduced Bill H. 4256, The “Strategic Digital Assets Reserve Act Of South Carolina”, into South Carolina’s House of Representatives.

Highlights from the bill include the fact that it enables the State Treasurer to invest up to 10% of the funds under the state’s management into digital assets, including bitcoin, and that the state’s Strategic Digital Assets Reserve can include up to one million bitcoin.

The bill also states that the reason for establishing such a reserve is because “inflation has eroded the purchasing power of assets held in state funds” and that “bitcoin, a decentralized digital asset, and other digital assets offer unique properties that can act as a hedge against inflation and economic volatility.”

The bill does not stipulate whether or not state officials should hold the private keys to the bitcoin and other digital assets that it accumulates for the reserve, though it enables the State Treasurer to develop policies and protocols to protect the assets held in the reserve, including the use of cold storage or the contracting of a third party to maintain custody of the assets. The State Treasurer can also utilize a third party to assist in the creation, maintenance, and administration of the reserve’s security.

As per the bill, the State Treasurer would be responsible for preparing a biennial report that includes the total amount of digital assets held in the reserve, the U.S. dollar value of those assets, and transactions and expenditures related to the reserve since the previous report. Also, the State Treasurer would be required to publish proof of reserves, which includes the public addresses of the digital assets held in the reserve on an official state website, enabling citizens to independently audit and verify the reserve’s holdings.

Finally, the bill stipulates that the Strategic Digital Asset Reserve undergo audits that include an examination of the quality of the security of custody solutions; an assessment of compliance with local, state and federal laws; and an evaluation of internal controls to mitigate against cyberattacks and mismanagement.

According to the bill, the independent audits should be conducted annually and submitted to the relevant oversight committee. Any recommendations resulting from the independent audits must be addressed within 90 days of the issuance of the report, and a follow-up reporting detailing the corrective actions taken must also be provided to the oversight committee.



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