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Maximizing Bitcoin Gains with ETF Data

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Maximizing Bitcoin Gains with ETF Data

Since the introduction of Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) in early 2024, Bitcoin has reached new all-time highs, with multiple months of double-digit gains. However, as impressive as this performance is, there’s a way to significantly outperform Bitcoin’s returns by utilizing ETF data to guide your trading decisions.

Bitcoin ETFs and Their Influence

Bitcoin ETFs, launched in January 2024, have quickly amassed large amounts of Bitcoin. These ETFs, tracked by various funds, allow institutional and retail investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin without directly owning it. These ETFs have accumulated billions of USD worth of BTC, and tracking this cumulative flow is essential for monitoring institutional activity in Bitcoin markets, helping us gauge whether institutional players are buying or selling.

Figure 1: BTC ETF Cumulative Flows (USD) have surpassed $18.5b. View Live Chart 🔍

ETF daily inflows denominated in BTC indicate that large-scale investors are accumulating Bitcoin, while daily outflows suggest they are exiting positions during that trading period. For those looking to outperform Bitcoin’s already strong 2024 performance, this ETF data offers a strategic entry and exit point for Bitcoin trades.

Figure 2: BTC ETF Daily Flows (BTC) show regular accumulation of over 10,000 BTC per day. View Live Chart 🔍

A Simple Strategy Based on ETF Data

The strategy is relatively straightforward: buy Bitcoin when ETF inflows are positive (green bars) and sell when outflows occur (red bars). Surprisingly, this method allows you to outperform even during Bitcoin’s bullish periods.

This strategy, while simple, has consistently outperformed the broader Bitcoin market by capturing price momentum at the right moments and avoiding potential downturns by following institutional trends.

Figure 3: Each trade following this institutional inflow/outflow strategy.

The Power of Compounding

The real secret to this strategy lies in compounding. Compounding gains over time significantly boosts your returns, even during periods of consolidation or minor volatility. Imagine starting with $100 in capital. If your first trade yields a 10% return, you now have $110. On the next trade, another 10% gain on $110 brings your total to $121. Compounding these gains over time, even modest wins, accumulate into significant profits. Losses are inevitable, but compounding wins far outweigh the occasional dip.

Since the launch of the Bitcoin ETFs, this strategy has provided over 100% returns during a period in which just holding BTC has returned roughly 37%, or even compared to buying Bitcoin on the ETF launch day and selling at the exact all-time high, which would have returned approximately 59%.

Figure 4: Over 100% compounded gains since ETF launch following this strategy.

Can Further Upside Be Expected?

Recently, we’ve begun to see a sustained trend of positive ETF inflows, suggesting that institutions are once again heavily accumulating Bitcoin. Since September 19th, every day has seen positive inflows, which, as we can see, have often preceded price rallies. BlackRock and their IBIT ETF alone have accumulated over 379,000 BTC since inception.

Figure 5: BlackRock alone has accumulated over 379,000 BTC in just a few months. View Live Chart 🔍

Conclusion

Market conditions can change, and there will inevitably be periods of volatility. However, the consistent historical correlation between ETF inflows and Bitcoin price increases makes this a valuable tool for those looking to maximize their Bitcoin gains. If you’re looking for a low-effort, set-it-and-forget-it approach, buy-and-hold may still be suitable. However, if you want to try and actively increase your returns by leveraging institutional data, tracking Bitcoin ETF inflows and outflows could be a game-changer.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here: Using ETF Data to Outperform Bitcoin [Must Watch]



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Altcoins

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan Predicts Institutional Interest in Altcoins, Says 2025 the Year of Crypto Diversification

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Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan says a wave of institutional interest in altcoins is coming next year, largely due to potential regulatory clarity and more exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

In a new interview with Bloomberg, Hougan says that institutional money is in the early stages of broadening out to other crypto assets besides just Bitcoin (BTC).

Hougan forecasts that 2025 will be the year that institutional investors will begin to incorporate more diversification in their crypto-investing strategies the same way they do in other asset classes like equities or bonds.

“You’re already seeing it broaden out actually. A lot of people were worried about the Ethereum ETFs for instance, which launched this summer and had tepid inflows.

But over the last month or so, you’ve seen billions of dollars flow into those products.

Again, the things that have happened in crypto in the past keep happening. Historically, most people enter crypto through Bitcoin, and then they discover Ethereum, and then they think about Solana. There’s no reason to assume that the institutions that came into Bitcoin won’t move on to other assets in the future. 

In fact, I think in 2025, you’re going to see an explosion of interest in index space strategies that give diversified exposure to crypto. Of course, [that is] something we’ve been doing at Bitwise since 2017 when we pioneered that concept. I think 2025 is when that becomes a mainstream way to allocate to this space, the same way it is to stocks and bonds and real estate and everything else.”

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

Featured Image: Shutterstock/Julien Tromeur/Sensvector

 





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Censorship

Governments And Large Institutions Can Buy All The Bitcoin They Want (Except Yours)

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Follow Aaron on Nostr or X.

An X post by Anita Posch warning about the risks of governments and institutions buying up large amounts of bitcoin went viral this week— even if just because of the trollish community note that appeared underneath it. I think the main concern here is that these big holders could influence the Bitcoin consensus rules to impose censorship.

When it comes to censorship specifically, mining centralization is actually a more direct threat. But if it’s just miners censoring, it would only last for as long as a majority of miners is willing to keep doing it— at the expense of forfeiting transaction fees. If and when the censorship stops, transactions would start confirming again as if nothing happened.

If economic nodes were to enforce censorship as new protocol rules as well, however, it can indeed be considered a soft fork. In this scenario, miners can’t revert from the censorship without splitting the blockchain between “upgraded” (censoring) and non-upgraded nodes; that would constitute a hard fork. Buyers and sellers of the two versions of bitcoin would then determine which blockchain is more valuable; this is why some bitcoiners are concerned about governments and other large institutions accumulating a significant share of the bitcoin supply.

It’s a reasonable concern, and something to be aware of. At the same time (and similar to my argument in this Take), it’s not obvious to me that governments or large institutions would be willing to risk it all by betting on a censorship fork of Bitcoin. But even more importantly, there isn’t much we can do to stop governments or other institutions from buying bitcoin anyways— nor should there be, as that would (ironically) itself represent a form of censorship.

The best countermeasure, in this regard, was actually already proposed by Nikolaus: Don’t sell MicroStrategy your bitcoin.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.



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Bitcoin

Ether (ETH) ETF Inflows Hit Record, Bitcoin ETF Inflows Soar as BTC Price Eyes $90K

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“Assets in the US spot bitcoin ETFs are now up to $84b, which is 2/3 of the way to what gold ETFs have, all the sudden there’s a decent shot they surpass gold before their first birthday (we predicted it would take 3-4yrs),” Eric Balchunas, a senior analyst at Bloomberg, said in a post on X.



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