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NIKOLAUS: Retail Keeps Selling Bitcoin to ETFs, Don't Sell Your BTC To Whales

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What We’re Reading: HODL15Capital

Follow Nikolaus On X Here

For the past few weeks I have been keeping up with HODL15Capital on X, who has done a tremendous job at posting some of the quickest incoming market data regarding the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. Recently, there have been two charts in particular he has posted that have caught my eye.

Nine months ago, the SEC approved spot Bitcoin ETFs for trading, and since then, the ETFs have seen huge inflows during eight out of those nine months. Since their inception, these ETFs have seen inflows of 312,488 BTC while miners have only created 169,942 new bitcoin.

These ETFs have been the fastest growing ETFs in history, like BlackRock CEO Larry Fink stated, with no real signs of slowing down, especially as we head into a period of time that has been historically bullish for Bitcoin. 

These ETFs are gobbling up all the available BTC leaving many thinking: Who could possibly be selling right now? And according to HODL15Capital, it appears to be smaller BTC holders, selling directly into the hands of the ETFs and institutions.

We’re seeing state pension funds, large institutions, wealthy investors and other major players buy and hold shares of these ETFs. Even ETF issuers like BlackRock are buying shares of its own Bitcoin ETF for their other funds. Long story short, I’m seeing smart money pouring into this asset class and, while that is great for the price of BTC, it pains me to watch smaller holders sell their bitcoin directly to the institutions.

Holding Bitcoin over the long term has been proven to be one of the best ways to build wealth. This is a real chance for those interested in investing for their future, who may not currently have proper savings, to start building up wealth in a sovereign way by accumulating BTC and holding the keys to their coins. Instead, these coins are being mostly “locked up” in these ETFs, where those who buy them can only redeem their shares for US dollars and don’t experience the benefits of the attributes that make bitcoin so unique (e.g, freedom to transact globally without permission from a third party).

Based on this data, I fear many of these smaller bitcoin holders are letting a great opportunity to build wealth via holding BTC slip through their fingers. Also, buy not buying bitcoin directly and holding it in self-custody, as opposed to purchasing shares of the ETFs, investors are missing out on what it truly means to own censorship resistant sovereign money. Such a feeling often has the effect of making investors hold bitcoin for the long-term as opposed selling in the short-term based on fear.

The smart money knows exactly what opportunity is here, and they don’t care too much about the freedom aspects of Bitcoin. They’re just filling their BTC bags in a vehicle that suits them better. 

Cheap BTC does not last forever. Major players will continue scooping up huge swaths of shares of the ETFs as we hit a new all time highs and beyond. If there’s one thing I leave you with today: Don’t sell your BTC to the corporations, and hold the keys to your coins.





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Bitcoin

Options on Bitcoin (BTC) Exchange-Traded Funds Marks Milestone, Despite Position Limits

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Park explained on X that the exercisable risk, representing the total value of option contracts exercised or converted to actual shares, equates to less than 0.5% of IBIT’s outstanding shares. Meanwhile, the industry standard is closer to 7%, which would represent a comparative figure of 7%. To show how small the 0.5% figure is, bitcoin CME futures contracts are allowed to trade 2,000 contracts, which is the equivalent of 175,000 for IBIT.



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Bitcoin

Crypto product record major inflow up to $2.2 billion

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CoinShares, a digital asset manager, reported that last week crypto products saw a major inflow from institutional investors of up to $2.2 billion.

The latest U.S. Election, on Nov. 5, still stimulated the weekly cryptocurrency inflow up to $2.2 billion. The number increased 15% from the previous week by about $1.98 billion.

According to CoinShares’s release, on Nov. 18, digital asset inflows recorded $33.5 billion year-to-date and hit a new peak of under-asset management (AUM) up to $138 billion.

Bitcoin (BTC) saw the largest inflow based on assets last week of around $1.48 billion or equal to 67%. Followed by Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) with inflows $646 million and $23.9 million respectively.

The Beam Chain network upgrade proposal by Justin Drake has increased Ethereum’s inflow from $157 million. Only multi-asset and Binance Coin (BNB) record a week’s outflow.

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) recorded the highest surge in crypto product from last week’s inflow up to 63% or up to $2.1 billion. While the rest of the funding recorded an outflow ranging from $8 million to $153 million, including Grayscale and Fidelity.

Crypto product driving factor: U.S. Election

James Butterfill, CoinShares head of research, says a combination of looser monetary policy and a Republican winning a majority of the Congress and Presidency appears to be a driving factor of these inflows.

Donald Trump winning the White House’s second term still brings a positive rally for the cryptocurrency industry, as well as the crypto product. Buterfill has mentioned that Trump’s presidency would bring crypto-friendly regulations and fiscal policy.

Earlier, Trump picked several names for secretary on his cabinet who identified as pro-crypto personalities including Elon Musk, Tom Emmer, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Bitcoin Act, who were proposed by Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis, and the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve also boosts the crypto investor’s confidence. He also mentioned this favorable outlook may bring the best potential of Bitcoin in the future.

“The next four years may witness an unprecedented level of institutional support, increased government interest, and broader public adoption, setting the stage for Bitcoin to further solidify its place in the global financial landscape,” Buterfill mentioned in the other report.



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Abu Dhabi

BlackRock receives Abu Dhabi commercial license after Saudi approval

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BlackRock has received a license to operate in Abu Dhabi, further expanding its business into the Middle Eastern region after gaining approval from Saudi Arabia just last month.

According to a Bloomberg report published on Nov. 18, the investment management company plans to apply to get regulatory approval to set up business in the Abu Dhabi Global Market, at the heart of UAE’s capital.

BlackRock’s Abu Dhabi office will primarily work with sovereign wealth funds, wealth managers and investment vehicles based in the region.

This latest development comes a month after BlackRock secured approval from Saudi Arabia to open up a headquarters in Riyadh. The asset manager has continued to branch out its business reach into the Middle East after announcing it would get up to $5 billion from the Public Investment Fund to invest in the Middle East and build a team rooted in Riyadh.

Additionally, BlackRock has partnered with Abu Dhabi’s Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan to bankroll the build-out of data warehouses and energy infrastructure within the region.

In a statement, Head of the Middle East for BlackRock, Charles Hatami, stated several reasons why the firm chose to operate in Abu Dhabi. Considering Abu Dhabi’s status as a hot spot for capital markets, he said that the region’s proactive government policies and commitment to sustainability make it an ideal location.

“Abu Dhabi has rapidly transformed into a global financial center,” said Hatami, adding that the firm plans to focus on private markets, specifically AI infrastructure, in Abu Dhabi.

BlackRock Chief Executive Officer Larry Fink explained that having the investment firm operate in both Abu Dhabi and Riyadh was a logical move, as both regions are competing head-to-head with Dubai to become the Middle Eastern business hub.

Both regions are famous for holding over $1 trillion of sovereign wealth, representing some of the biggest capital in the world.



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