An analyst has explained how the worst could be behind for Bitcoin, and Q4 may bring back bullish momentum if history is anything to go by.

Q3 Has Historically Been The Worst Time For Bitcoin Investors

In a new post on X, Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards talked about how investors are going through the worst time for Bitcoin. Below is the table cited by the analyst, which breaks down the quarterly returns the cryptocurrency has seen throughout its history.

As is visible, the third quarter of the year has generally been the worst time for Bitcoin throughout history, with average returns for the month standing at +5% and median ones at -4%

For perspective, the second-worst performing quarter tends to be Q2, but its average and median returns of +27% and +7%, respectively, are still significantly better than Q3’s.

On the other side of the spectrum is Q4, the next quarter of the current year. Bitcoin has had its best periods this quarter, with average and median returns at +89% and +57%, respectively.

“If you are still here, congratulations. You made it through the worst time to be in Bitcoin,” says Edwards in the post about BTC traders. “The best lies ahead.”

Last year, the cryptocurrency enjoyed an uplift of almost 57% in this period. With Q3 fast approaching a close, it remains to be seen how the BTC price ends up performing in Q4 this time around.

Speaking of historical patterns, on-chain analyst Checkmate discussed how the daily price performance distribution has looked across bear and bull markets in an X post.

Here is the chart shared by the analyst:

As displayed in the above graph, around 28% of bear market days have seen the asset trend higher than +1%, while about 38% have seen it decline by more than -1%. The remaining 34% of the days have seen the cryptocurrency remain within +1% to -1% of the previous day.

During bullish periods, Bitcoin has spent 33% of the days witnessing a rise of more than +1%, while 26% registering a drop of over -1%. The asset has consolidated for the remaining 41%.

The symmetry between the three types of days is interesting, but what stands out is how the distributions are almost the same between bear and bull markets.

“Day traders are attempting to beat a three-sided coin, with a third of all days rallying, a third selling-off, and a third doing nothing,” notes Checkmate.

BTC Price

Bitcoin has shown a sudden burst of bullish momentum during the last 24 hours as its price has jumped more than 5%, reaching the $60,900 level.

Today, the Human Rights Foundation (HRF) announced its most recent round of Bitcoin Development Fund grants, according to a press release sent to Bitcoin Magazine.

10 BTC, currently worth $590,000 at the time of writing, is being granted across 20 different projects around the world focusing on technical education for people living under authoritarian regimes, Bitcoin development conferences, decentralizing mining, and providing human rights groups with more private financial solutions. The main areas of focus for these grants center around Latin America, Asia, and Africa.

While the HRF did not disclose how much money each project is receiving specifically, the following 20 projects are the recipients of today’s round of grants worth 10 BTC, or 1 billion satoshis, in total:

African Bitcoiners, a community dedicated to onboarding Africans to Bitcoin. Key initiatives include a “Bitcoin for Beginners” course, free Lightning payment routing for merchants, and the ability to buy airtime and data with Bitcoin. With the continent plagued by political and economic turmoil, Bitcoin can serve as a path to financial sovereignty. Funding will support the production of educational materials and support operational expenses, including salaries, infrastructure, and tools.

Stratospher, a Bitcoin Core developer focused on enhancing the privacy and decentralization of the Bitcoin protocol. Their work includes improving peer-to-peer (P2P) network privacy, reviewing critical pull requests in the libsecp library, and mentoring of new talent. Their work is important in helping protect users from financial surveillance and censorship by authoritarian regimes. This funding will support their full-time development efforts.

Coracle, a Nostr web client designed to create a social media experience that empowers individuals. Developed by hodlbod, recent and planned updates include customizable and shareable feeds, improved direct messaging for privacy, and the development of encrypted public and private communities. By leveraging Nostr, Coracle could offer a new censorship-resistant communications platform for human rights activists. Funding will support the hiring of a full-time developer.

Harbor, an open-source ecash wallet built to provide better Bitcoin privacy. Started by the Mutiny team, Harbor is now an independent project led by Ben Carman and Paul Miller. Harbor incorporates multiple mints, is Tor-only, and automates fund management. Financial tools like Harbor can help empower human rights defenders facing government surveillance by offering strong privacy guarantees. This grant will support the development of Harbor’s 1.0 production release.

The 256 Foundation’s mission is to make Bitcoin mining free and open, supporting developments in the Bitaxe initiative are the flagship project in achieving that mission. Bitaxe provides an affordable entry point for home mining, offering protection against surveillance in authoritarian regimes and enabling individuals to mine Bitcoin discreetly. Funds will support multiple engineers building on and improving Bitaxe with the aim of making the Bitaxe formfactor available with more ASIC manufactures.

Kiveclair, a community in the Democratic Republic of Congo educating individuals about Bitcoin. Led by Gloire Wanzavalere, co-founder of Africa Bitcoin Conference, Kiveclair hosts monthly meetups, training sessions for activists, journalists, and developers, and provides shelter to refugees. It is also planning its first local conference. Funds will cover the cost of meetups, educational materials, equipment purchases, and the rental of an educational space.

Jeff Gardner, a full-time developer focused on bringing end-to-end encryption to Nostr Direct and Group Messages without centralized servers, making them resilient against state intervention. His work is vital for enabling private communication channels for individuals and activists. Funding will support ongoing development, allocating bounties to community contributors, and conducting a security audit of the project.

Silentium, a self-custodial, privacy-focused Bitcoin wallet with built-in Silent Payments. Developed by Louis Singer, Silentium can help protect activists’ financial privacy by enabling them to receive Bitcoin donations through unique addresses generated from a static public key. This prevents surveillance regimes from linking transactions to activist’s identities. This grant will support the wallet’s infrastructure, including a full cloud node, web server, and the hiring of a software developer.

BTC Shule, an educational initiative by Belyï Nobel Kubwayo. It equips Burundians with the knowledge and skills to use Bitcoin for uncensorable payments under Burundi’s authoritarian regime. The project is structured around three key initiatives: a bilingual (Kirundi and French) educational platform, a physical center to host meetups, and a Bitcoin support community via Whatsapp and Telegram. The grant will support the development of the digital platform, educational materials, and the building of the center.

EttaWallet, an open-source, self-custodial mobile Lightning wallet by Collin Rukundo, a software developer and co-founder/CTO of Splice Africa. The wallet is designed to improve usability and accessibility. It seeks to challenge the dominance of custodial wallets and empower citizens in the Global South to take full control over their funds. This grant will support further development of the wallet, improve localization efforts, and foster a growing community of users.

Tor relay operator associations to support increased network reliability and performance, as recommended by the Tor Project. Funding will allow relay operator associations to deploy nodes that improve the stability and reliability of onion services and increase network robustness against DOS attacks. Tor is vital to human rights activists, as well as Bitcoin and Lightning nodes that use onion services.

Rikto Xonghoti, a Bitcoin education initiative led by Anurag Saikia, Basanta Goswami, and Pallab Goswami. Focused on creating a Bitcoin circular economy in the state of Assam (a region marked by underdevelopment), the project offers online Bitcoin education in Assamese. It also plans to establish a physical Bitcoin center in the town of Titabar. This grant will support teacher salaries, the center’s development, and the acquisition of Bitcoin nodes and mining equipment to boost local economic growth.

Yes Bitcoin Haiti, a grassroots organization led by Val, Papouche, and Armand. It seeks to empower Haitians living in political and financial turmoil with Bitcoin. As a new project, it will proceed in phases: first, project leaders will complete the Bitcoin Diploma course offered by The Core; next, they will translate educational materials into Haitian Creole and host workshops. Funding will support project leaders’ salaries, the purchase of equipment, and the production of educational materials.

Bitcoin Indonesia, an educational initiative led by Dimas, Marius, Keypleb, and Diana. It focuses on building an educational platform in Bahasa Indonesia (local language), expanding the local Bitcoin community, and connecting Indonesian talent with Bitcoin-related companies to drive career opportunities. It has also successfully hosted the country’s largest Bitcoin conference. This grant will support content creation, community outreach, and operational expenses.

Bitcoin++, a Bitcoin-only developer conference series organized by software developer and educator Lisa Neigut. The conference features long-form lectures and workshops for developers eager to dive into the intricacies of Bitcoin technology. Held in cities like Mexico City, Buenos Aires, and Austin, Bitcoin++ has explored key themes like scripts, mempool, and soon, eCash. Funds will cover travel expenses for developers from authoritarian countries to attend the upcoming Bitcoin++ mints ecash conference in Berlin.

TABConf, a Bitcoin conference hosted by Michael Tidwell in Atlanta, GA. Its mission is to create a forum for protocol and application developers to debate and collaborate on Bitcoin. Through collaborative workshops and interactive activities, attendees can share their insights, knowledge, and experience to further Bitcoin development and innovation. Funds will be used to cover conference expenses and travel costs for developers in need of financial assistance.

Baltic Honeybadger, the world’s first non-profit, Bitcoin-only conference hosted by Hodl Hodl. With its cypherpunk roots, the conference fosters discussions on technologies that support financial freedom, security, and privacy, especially for those in authoritarian regimes. Funding will cover travel expenses for activists and human rights defenders to deepen their knowledge on Bitcoin as a human rights tool.

LaBitconf and Descentralizar, two annual conferences in Argentina. LaBitconf, hosted by Rodolfo Andragnes, is the longest-running Bitcoin conference in Latin America. Funds will cover travel expenses for software developers and keynote speakers. Descentralizar, a one-day event held in three cities across the country, offers debates, workshops, and networking opportunities for attendees. Funds will also support travel expenses and conference equipment. Given Argentina’s ongoing economic challenges, these conferences provide an opportunity for Argentines to explore Bitcoin as a tool for financial freedom.

Satsconf, the largest Bitcoin-only conference in South America. Held in São Paulo, Brazil’s economic hub, Satsconf connects the local community with global thought leaders, including macroeconomists, veteran Bitcoin educators, freedom advocates, and developers shaping the future of Bitcoin. Funds will support travel expenses for speakers, event logistics, and the hackathon.

Solidarity Summit: Standing with Political Prisoners, a Vienna-based event organized by Hager Eissa that unites former political prisoners, human rights advocates, and others to address the challenges faced by political prisoners. The Summit promotes dialogue, advocacy, and support for political prisoners worldwide and serves as a catalyst for change. HRF support will help add a financial freedom component to the program. A documentary will also be produced to further highlight these issues. Funds will cover venue and event logistics, program development, speaker costs, and film production.

The HRF is a nonpartisan, nonprofit 501(c)(3) organization that promotes and protects human rights globally, with a focus on closed societies. The HRF continues to raise support for the Bitcoin Development Fund, and interested donors can find more info on how to donate bitcoin here. Applications for grant support by the HRF can be submitted here.