Park explained on X that the exercisable risk, representing the total value of option contracts exercised or converted to actual shares, equates to less than 0.5% of IBIT’s outstanding shares. Meanwhile, the industry standard is closer to 7%, which would represent a comparative figure of 7%. To show how small the 0.5% figure is, bitcoin CME futures contracts are allowed to trade 2,000 contracts, which is the equivalent of 175,000 for IBIT.

Since November 5, the day President-elect Donald Trump secured another term in office, Bitcoin has experienced a remarkable uptrend, reaching a new all-time high of $93,300. 

Since then, BTC has been trading within a narrow range between $89,000 and $92,000, positioning for a potential move toward the $100,000 milestone. This raises an intriguing question whether a price of $1 million per coin is feasible over the next decade.

A Long-Term Vision For Investors

Market expert VirtualBacon has conducted an in-depth analysis of these possibilities, delving into the numbers, trends, and catalysts that could propel Bitcoin to experience a surge of nearly 1,000% from its current price levels. 

Within the current market cycle, the expert forecasts that Bitcoin could hit $200,000 in the next one to two years. However, he notes that while this milestone is significant, altcoins may offer higher returns at a greater risk, often crashing by 80% to 90% in bear markets.

In contrast to altcoins, which face increasing regulatory scrutiny, Bitcoin stands out as a safer long-term investment. VirtualBacon argues that Bitcoin’s potential is not just confined to the next few years but spans a decade or more. 

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To understand why Bitcoin’s price could reach $1 million, VirtualBacon asserts that investors need to consider its fundamental utility as a store of value. Bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21 million coins, its global accessibility, and its resistance to censorship and manipulation make it a compelling alternative to traditional financial assets. 

The expert suggests that if Bitcoin is to become recognized as the digital gold of the 21st century, reaching a market capitalization that rivals gold’s estimated $13 trillion is not merely a theoretical possibility but “a logical outcome.”

Key drivers for this potential growth include increasing participation from asset managers, corporate treasuries, central banks, and wealthy individuals. Recent data indicates that Bitcoin ETFs have seen record inflows, with $1 billion invested last week, reflecting growing institutional confidence. 

Additionally, discussions among corporations, such as Microsoft considering Bitcoin reserves, further enhance its strategic value. Wealthy individuals are also beginning to adopt Bitcoin as a standard portfolio allocation, with even a modest 1% investment becoming commonplace among billionaires.

What Does Bitcoin Need To Reach $1 Million?

For Bitcoin to reach the $1 million mark, two critical factors must be analyzed: global wealth growth and portfolio allocation. VirtualBacon notes that in 2022, total global wealth was estimated at $454 trillion, and projections suggest this could grow to $750 trillion by 2034. 

Currently, gold holds approximately 3.9% of global wealth, while Bitcoin is at a mere 0.35%. If Bitcoin’s allocation in global portfolios rose to just 3%, still significantly below gold’s share, its market cap could soar to $20 trillion, pushing the price to $1 million per coin.

Historically, gold’s market cap saw significant growth following the launch of exchange-traded funds in 2004, with its portfolio allocation increasing from 1.67% to 4.74% over the next decade. 

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If Bitcoin follows a similar trajectory, its allocation could rise from 0.35% to 1.05% or more, translating to a market cap of approximately $7.92 trillion, equating to about $395,000 per Bitcoin. Therefore, reaching $1 million doesn’t require Bitcoin to surpass gold; it must capture about 57% of gold’s projected market cap by 2034.

With gold representing 4.7% of global portfolios compared to Bitcoin’s 0.35%, a modest increase in Bitcoin’s share of global wealth to 3%—just 60% of gold’s allocation—could “easily” result in a $20 trillion market cap and a $1 million price point.

At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $92,240, up 7% every week. 

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

A closely followed crypto strategist believes that top memecoin Dogecoin (DOGE) may be gearing up for an explosive surge.

Analyst Ali Martinez tells his 80,000 followers on the social media platform X that DOGE has more upside potential based on the level of public interest relative to its current price level.

He uses Google search trends to gauge the level of interest for the top memecoin by market cap.

“I read people saying Dogecoin will not go higher because of ‘market cap,’ ‘sell the news,’ ‘better memes.’ Well, when you look at the interest in DOGE over time, it isn’t even at peak popularity yet. Long story short, DOGE has way more room to grow.”

He also says that DOGE may be forming a bull flag pattern on the hourly timeframe and may soon surge past its all-time high of about $0.74. In technical analysis, a bull flag is viewed as a continuation pattern, indicating that an asset is consolidating and gearing up for a fresh rally.

“Dogecoin appears to form a bull flag! I’m looking out for an hourly close above $0.40 which could trigger a breakout to $0.85!”

DOGE is trading for $0.3742 at time of writing, up 3.6% in the last 24 hours but down about 49% from its all-time high of $0.731.

Lastly, the analyst says that Bitcoin (BTC) may override a bearish signal from the TD Sequential indicator and hit six figures.

Traders use the TD Sequential indicator to predict potential trend reversals for tokens based on the closing prices of their previous nine or 13 bars or candles.

“Finally, I believe a sustained daily close above $91,900 will invalidate this bearish Bitcoin outlook and trigger a breakout to $100,680!”

Bitcoin is trading for $90,885 at time of writing, up 1.6% in the last 24 hours.

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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

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