The US national debt just hit a new record high after the Treasury Department added $104 billion to its outstanding balance in a single day.

The Treasury’s Debt to the Penny database shows the government’s pile of debt is close to $36 trillion, clocking in at $35.951601173936 trillion.

The US shattered the $35 trillion barrier in late July.

The grim milestone comes as a study from the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget shows both presidential candidates will add trillions more to the national debt.

The CRFB says a Harris presidency could add $3.5 trillion to the debt over ten years, while a Trump presidency could add 7.75 trillion in the same time frame.

However, the agency warns its models have a wide range of possible spending outcomes.

“Our estimates come with a wide range of uncertainty, reflecting both different interpretations and estimates of the policies.

Under our low- and high-cost estimates, we estimate Vice President Harris’s plan could increase debt by between $300 billion and $8.30 trillion through 2035, while President Trump’s plan could increase debt by between $1.65 and $15.55 trillion.”

The agency says its estimates reflect the “expected fiscal impact” of the policies that the candidates have laid out on their campaign websites, official announcements, white papers and social media posts.

“The national debt currently stands at 99% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and is projected to grow from 102% of GDP at the start of FY 2026 to 125% by the end of 2035 based on the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) current law baseline.

The debt will exceed its record as a share of the economy – 106% set in 1946 – in just three years. Debt would continue to grow faster than the economy under either candidates’ plans and in most scenarios would grow faster and higher than under current law.”

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Polymarket data shows Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump’s lead over his Democratic opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, has weakened but remains dominant.

As per the data, the twice-impeached former president’s odds declined from 66.9% to 54%.

Meanwhile, Harris has seen a substantial increase in her chances, rising from 33.5% to 46.1%. This shift reflects changing market sentiment as Election Day, Nov. 5, approaches.

Built on the Ethereum blockchain, Polymarket allows its users to buy and sell shares in different real-world outcomes by betting a stablecoin (USDC), rather than more volatile cryptocurrencies.

According to the Wall Street Journal, a Polymarket gambler known as Théo is wagering more than $30 million on a Trump victory.

Iowa poll, Epstein tapes

The shift in momentum comes as the latest Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll results bode well for Harris.

According to Ann Selzer, a prominent American pollster known for being highly accurate, Harris leads Trump in Iowa by three percentage points.

According to the poll, Harris retained 47% support compared to Trump’s 44% among likely voters. This represents a major swing from September’s poll, which showed Trump having a 4-point advantage.

Selzer told Newsweek that the same methodology was used this year as in 2016 and 2020 — two years when Trump won Iowa.

Meanwhile, The Daily Beast recently published recordings from interviews author Michael Wolff conducted in 2017 with convicted sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein.

Epstein, who spoke at length during the interviews about his decade-long friendship with Trump, died in August 2019 at a New York City prison, where he was awaiting trial.

Trump and Harris have varied crypto stances

The candidates’ positions on cryptocurrency regulation have become increasingly relevant to investors. Trump has emerged as a vocal supporter of crypto.

He has even made a public commitment to back cryptocurrency during a May event at Mar-a-Lago. Trump’s campaign’s decision to accept crypto donations further strengthens this pro-crypto stance.

Harris’s approach to crypto has been more measured. In September, she indicated her administration would support crypto as part of a broader strategy to enhance economic competitiveness.

While her statements have been less definitive than Trump’s explicit endorsements, Harris received an endorsement from Ripple(XRP) co-founder Chris Larsen, who donated over $11.8 million to her campaign.

Larsen told CNBC that he believes the Democratic candidate will take a completely different approach to crypto than President Joe Biden, who has been criticized for picking Gary Gensler to chair the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

As state polls and Polymarket predictions continue to show volatility, Bitcoin’s (BTC) price has reflected the uncertain political environment.

This is evident from its recent price drop to $68,000. According to the latest data, the global crypto market cap has plunged by 1.95% to $2.28 trillion.

Bitcoin went as low as $67,300 but managed to climb above $68,000 at press time. Ethereum (ETH) is no exception, as it fell to the $2,400 level.

On Friday, the total inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs finally hit a speedbreaker as the dynamic of the US elections shifted just three days before the results. Kamala Harris seems to be taking the lead in some of the swing states while Donald Trump continues to lead in others. All of the nine BTC ETFs yesterday, saw net outflows of $55 million with the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) seeing zero inflows for the first time in nearly a month.

BlackRock Bitcoin ETF Inflows Hit Speedbreaker

This week, except Friday, BlackRock’s IBIT led the most inflows contributing nearly around $2.2 billion so far. It has been single-handedly dominating the BTC ETF inflows in the last month of October.

However, on Friday, the spot Bitcoin ETF inflows hit a speedbreaker with $54.9 million in outflows. Fidelity reported $25.6 million in outflows, followed by ARK with $24.1 million, per Farside Investors data. On the other hand, the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF registered zero inflows for the first time in the past several trading sessions. This signals a possible pause in the demand after record-breaking contributions.

The spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen significant inflows and now hold more than 5% of the total BTC supply, surpassing 1 million Bitcoin holdings. Interestingly, BlackRock’s IBIT alone holds 2% of the total supply.

💥BREAKING: Yesterday the Spot #Bitcoin ETF saw $54.94 MILLION outflow! pic.twitter.com/kUEF6icGf6

— Crypto Rover (@rovercrc) November 2, 2024

Furthermore, Friday’s outflows coincide with a shift in the US election dynamics as Kamala Harris once again gains ground in the swing states.  Thus, investors could be taking a wait-and-watch approach moving ahead.

Is Donald Trump Losing Ground?

As per the Polymarket data, the odds of Doland Trump victory slipped 4.5 percentage points on Friday, with his overall winning prediction now at 58.1% while Kamala Harris has gained the same amount moving to 41.9%.

As a result, the broader crypto market has paused waiting for some clear indications for the further move. After moving all the way to $73,000 earlier this week, the Bitcoin price has once again dropped under $70,000 as of October closing.

Popular crypto analyst Ki Young Ju noted that ETF flows would be crucial for Bitcoin to gain further highs. He wrote:

“Stablecoins alone can’t provide enough buy-side liquidity for Bitcoin. The BTC-to-stablecoin ratio is 6.05, meaning BTC reserves are six times higher than stablecoins, similar to the last ATH. ETF flows and Coinbase USD liquidity will be crucial for the next few months”.

Apart from Bitcoin, altcoins have also been under a bit of selling pressure with the Ethereum (ETH) price slipping to $2,500 as bulls fail to gain enough traction.

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Bhushan Akolkar

Bhushan is a FinTech enthusiast with a keen understanding of financial markets. His interest in economics and finance has led him to focus on emerging Blockchain technology and cryptocurrency markets. He is committed to continuous learning and stays motivated by sharing the knowledge he acquires. In his free time, Bhushan enjoys reading thriller fiction novels and occasionally explores his culinary skills.

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.