Connect with us

Bitcoin

Prediction Markets Are Pricing In A Trump Victory. This Is Good For Bitcoin

Published

on


Follow Nikolaus On X Here

Earlier today, Vivek discussed why he thinks crypto native Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market, is biased towards Trump in this upcoming U.S. presidential election. While it is plausible given the arguments he laid out, I still believe that it may not be as biased as he may think.

First and foremost, prediction market traders are betting on these odds to make money, not swear loyalty to their preferred politician. Traders are looking to make a profit and are trying to lock in their bets at attractive odds on who they think will win. Based on many factors, like positive incoming GOP voter registration data in swing states like Pennsylvania, there are signs that show Trump has a very solid chance of winning this election. Even billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller said that the recent positive upswing in markets is due to the markets pricing in a Trump victory.

Like Vivek, many claim that since Polymarket is crypto native, then of course its users support Trump because he is also pro-Bitcoin and crypto. So let’s take a look at another, non-crypto native, market predictions platform, Kalshi.

On Kalshi, a U.S. betting odds platform that settles contracts in dollars, not Bitcoin or crypto, Trump is also in a massive lead. Trump is currently up by 20% over Harris. The crowd of users on this platform appear to be choosing their bets on who they think will win the election, even putting aside their own personal political preferences. Reading the comments, I’m seeing many people say they want Trump to win, but are taking the other side of this bet as they believe there may be election fraud from the Democrats which would see Harris ‘win’.

“Y’all betting on Trump haven’t priced in the probability of delivery vans pulling into the polling stations at 3am with 10’s of thousands of ballots, 99% of which going to Kamala they suddenly ‘found,’” commented one user. “Kamala will win legitimately or not, you have been warned.”

It will be fascinating to watch how these prediction markets play out as we inch closer to the election, which is now only two weeks away. I agree with Vivek that as we get closer to the election, these margins will likely get narrower. It appears to me that Trump has got this one in the bag, but it ain’t over until it’s over. Last election most people went to sleep thinking Trump had won the election, just for the Democrats to find all these ballots voting for Biden at 3am to win him the election. If there is any election fraud and interference in this upcoming election, these prediction markets may be in for a very volatile time.

A Trump win would be massive for Bitcoin on a regulatory level and price wise, due to his proposed policies. Under Harris, on the other hand, the future of Bitcoin in this country would be uncertain, as she has not laid out any real details on policy she would implement while as president and has a four year track record of attacking the industry while in office as vice president.

Bitcoin Magazine is teaming up with Stand With Crypto to provide real time election coverage on November 5th. So if you’re a Bitcoiner tired of watching mainstream news and want to witness this election from the perspective of a Bitcoiner, make sure to tune into the stream. More details on the livestream and where to watch here.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.



Source link

Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Bitcoin

Bitcoin Exchange River Financial Allowing Users to Earn BTC Interest on Cash Deposits

Published

on




Not a bank itself, River has teamed up with Lead Bank, a member of the FDIC, meaning users’ deposits are protected up to the value of $250,000.



Source link

Continue Reading

Best Altcoins 2025

Top Crypto Analyst Unveils Plan To ‘Make Millions’ By March 2025

Published

on



Este artículo también está disponible en español.

Crypto analyst Miles Deutscher, boasting 550,000 followers on X, has released a new video titled “My Plan To Make Millions In Crypto By March 2025! [Fool Proof Strategy].” In this analysis, Deutscher outlines his strategic approach to navigating the current crypto bull run.

The Start Of The Bitcoin Bull Run

First, Deutscher highlights the bullish outlook for Bitcoin, particularly on the monthly chart. “We have been consolidating above the high that we made in 2021 in February for a matter of eight months now,” he notes. “On the higher time frames, Bitcoin looks really, really good. It honestly looks primed for expansion for another leg potentially to take us to that $100,000 zone.”

He attributes this bullish consolidation to significant inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, signaling increased interest from traditional finance investors. “Over $2 billion worth of inflows into the Bitcoin ETFs last week,” Deutscher reports. “We also saw, to end the week, another additional $273 million flowing into the Bitcoin ETF. The landscape is very strong here for Bitcoin from a TradFi perspective.”

Despite this momentum, Bitcoin is lagging behind gold, which has surged 30% above its yearly high to $2,700 per ounce. “Bitcoin is still sitting 10% below its yearly high,” Deutscher points out. “If Bitcoin were to catch up to the current price performance of gold this year, that would indicate a Bitcoin price of $96,400, which would be absolutely insane.”

Deutscher also discusses the potential impact of macroeconomic factors and political events on Bitcoin’s trajectory. He observes a correlation between Bitcoin’s price performance and the election odds of former President Donald Trump. “It is quite interesting that Bitcoin is behaving very similarly to the Trump election odds based on Polymarket,” he remarks. While he acknowledges this could be coincidental, he suggests that “the market is anticipating a Trump win to be bullish for Bitcoin.”

He also references the transition from quantitative tightening to quantitative easing and its potential effect on the crypto market. Citing a tweet, he poses the question: “What do you think happens when you leave a seven, actually eight-month trading range off a low historical volatility into an election with a transition from quantitative tightening to quantitative easing and at the end phase of an 18.6-year real estate cycle?” His answer: “Explosion.”

Strategy How To “Make Millions”

Turning his focus to altcoins, Deutscher provides a strategy for capitalizing on emerging market trends to potentially “make millions by March 2025.” He emphasizes the importance of strategic accumulation during market dips and highlights the significance of current uptrends. “Alts are now uptrending. We have started to break above the range. Bitcoin is uptrending. We are starting to break above key levels and make higher highs,” he explains.

Deutscher advises against attempting to time market rotations between Bitcoin and altcoins. “You can play the game of timing the Bitcoin dominance rotation,” he acknowledges, but cautions that it requires precise timing. Instead, he recommends positioning for the “end game” by holding altcoins that are poised to outperform Bitcoin in the latter stages of its move. “Although that means I’m going to have to hold throughout periods of altcoin underperformance […] by the end of the cycle, I’m going to make more money playing that game,” he asserts.

He stresses the importance of focusing on strong narratives and being selective with investments. Quoting Warren Buffett, he notes, “Diversification is a protection against ignorance. It makes very little sense for those who know what they’re doing.” Deutscher elaborates: “I think you should be selective. You don’t want to be over-diversified to the point where you hold six AI coins, six RWA coins, eight meme coins, five Layer-1s, three Layer-2s. This is a market where you’re better off to have maybe two plays from each narrative and just go higher conviction into those coins.”

Key Narratives and Top Altcoin Picks

Deutscher identifies several hot crypto narratives and specific altcoins that he believes have the potential to yield significant profits. In the memecoin sector, Deutscher highlights the emergence of AI-driven meme coins, where AI agents create and promote tokens. His leading play in this space is GOAT. “This narrative either goes to billions and really takes off and GOAT could be a one-billion-plus coin, or it goes to zero,” he admits, acknowledging the high risk involved.

Besides AI memecoins, Deutscher recommends looking at the memecoin list by Murad Mahmudov. “I do think SPX6900 is a decent play. I also like GIGA, but probably not as much as SPX. I also like MOG. I like pretty much all of these but I think, you just gotta pick two or three that you resonate with the most.”

Beyond meme coins, Deutscher is heavily investing in AI projects. He has taken positions in tokens like Bittensor and Near Protocol. “I’m meeting two to three AI founders a day. I’m really digging deep into AI research because it’s one of the verticals that I’m most interested in right now,” he shares.

Deutscher also revealed his investments in projects that tokenize real-world assets, such as Mantra (OM), Ondo Finance (ONDO), and Pendle. While he has started taking profits from these investments due to significant gains, he is reallocating into projects like Clearpool (CPOOL), which he believes can “push up into that top-five echelon of RWA protocols.” He hints at another RWA project he’s bullish on but hasn’t publicly disclosed yet.

Deutscher emphasizes the importance of accumulating crypto positions during market dips, especially in sectors poised for growth. He notes that the current market phase rewards dip buyers. “We’re in this new paradigm where we are getting higher lows. The market is actually rewarding those that buy these dips and take advantage of the dips,” he observes.

He underscores the need for adaptability and disciplined risk management to maximize profits and potentially make millions. “You need to be evolving in the market in order to be profitable, and you need to be condensing positions that maybe aren’t so great or sexy or attractive for this next run into positions that are attractive,” he advises.

Deutscher also cautions against fixating on arbitrary price targets or portfolio milestones. “Price targets are stupid,” he asserts. “The number one way that people wreck themselves last cycle was attaching themselves to arbitrary numbers like, ‘Oh, when I hit a million dollars, then I’ll cash out,’ or ‘Oh, when Bitcoin hits 100K, then I’ll cash out.’”

Instead, he recommends implementing an incremental profit-taking system. “For each coin that you buy, have a plan to shift out set percentages at certain multiples,” he suggests. “This approach allows investors to secure gains progressively and adjust to market conditions without the need to predict exact peaks.”

At press time, Bitcoin traded at $67,347.

Bitcoin price
BTC price, 1-day chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com



Source link

Continue Reading

Bitcoin

Top Trader Predicts Bitcoin Breakout to $100,000 Following Months of Consolidation – But There’s a Big Catch

Published

on


A trader who rode the 2023 crypto breakout believes Bitcoin (BTC) is now poised to soar to as high as $100,000.

In a new video update, pseudonymous analyst DonAlt tells his 62,400 YouTube subscribers that Bitcoin looks set to end its multi-month consolidation phase that started in March.

But DonAlt warns that Bitcoin will likely witness a deep corrective move after a strong breakout surge.

“My base case is right now we’re going to break out and it’s going to get smacked down… We’re going to go to $80,000, $90,000 maybe $100,000 if this breaks out, and then we’re going to go back down to $60,000… And then have $60,000 be a base and do all that boring consolidation stuff. 

But my base case is we’re going to break out.”

The trader says he’s not convinced that Bitcoin will see a sustained uptrend after its initial breakout.

“I think there’s a good chance that the breakout doesn’t really stick now. I think we’re going to then consolidate around $60,000 and then it might stick on the next attempt. It’s just on this attempt, I’m not entirely sure.”

But the trader notes that he may shift his stance depending on future market conditions.

“But I can change my mind. If I’m bullish now and we go to $90,000 and then I just see bullishness everywhere, I can change my mind. I can be like, ‘Hey, my idea of what we’re going to do when we get here is just one I don’t agree with anymore,’ and I just change my mind and go with that.”

At time of writing, Bitcoin is trading for $67,554, down over 2% in the past day.

 

Don’t Miss a Beat – Subscribe to get email alerts delivered directly to your inbox

Check Price Action

Follow us on X, Facebook and Telegram

Surf The Daily Hodl Mix

&nbsp

Disclaimer: Opinions expressed at The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrency or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.

Generated Image: Midjourney





Source link

Continue Reading
Advertisement [ethereumads]

Trending

    wpChatIcon