Bitcoin
Prediction Markets Are Pricing In A Trump Victory. This Is Good For Bitcoin
Published
4 weeks agoon
By
adminEarlier today, Vivek discussed why he thinks crypto native Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market, is biased towards Trump in this upcoming U.S. presidential election. While it is plausible given the arguments he laid out, I still believe that it may not be as biased as he may think.
First and foremost, prediction market traders are betting on these odds to make money, not swear loyalty to their preferred politician. Traders are looking to make a profit and are trying to lock in their bets at attractive odds on who they think will win. Based on many factors, like positive incoming GOP voter registration data in swing states like Pennsylvania, there are signs that show Trump has a very solid chance of winning this election. Even billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller said that the recent positive upswing in markets is due to the markets pricing in a Trump victory.
Like Vivek, many claim that since Polymarket is crypto native, then of course its users support Trump because he is also pro-Bitcoin and crypto. So let’s take a look at another, non-crypto native, market predictions platform, Kalshi.
On Kalshi, a U.S. betting odds platform that settles contracts in dollars, not Bitcoin or crypto, Trump is also in a massive lead. Trump is currently up by 20% over Harris. The crowd of users on this platform appear to be choosing their bets on who they think will win the election, even putting aside their own personal political preferences. Reading the comments, I’m seeing many people say they want Trump to win, but are taking the other side of this bet as they believe there may be election fraud from the Democrats which would see Harris ‘win’.
“Y’all betting on Trump haven’t priced in the probability of delivery vans pulling into the polling stations at 3am with 10’s of thousands of ballots, 99% of which going to Kamala they suddenly ‘found,’” commented one user. “Kamala will win legitimately or not, you have been warned.”
It will be fascinating to watch how these prediction markets play out as we inch closer to the election, which is now only two weeks away. I agree with Vivek that as we get closer to the election, these margins will likely get narrower. It appears to me that Trump has got this one in the bag, but it ain’t over until it’s over. Last election most people went to sleep thinking Trump had won the election, just for the Democrats to find all these ballots voting for Biden at 3am to win him the election. If there is any election fraud and interference in this upcoming election, these prediction markets may be in for a very volatile time.
A Trump win would be massive for Bitcoin on a regulatory level and price wise, due to his proposed policies. Under Harris, on the other hand, the future of Bitcoin in this country would be uncertain, as she has not laid out any real details on policy she would implement while as president and has a four year track record of attacking the industry while in office as vice president.
Bitcoin Magazine is teaming up with Stand With Crypto to provide real time election coverage on November 5th. So if you’re a Bitcoiner tired of watching mainstream news and want to witness this election from the perspective of a Bitcoiner, make sure to tune into the stream. More details on the livestream and where to watch here.
This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.
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$2 Million PEPE Purchase Sees 105 Billion Tokens Snapped Up
Published
3 hours agoon
November 21, 2024By
adminThey say journalists never truly clock out. But for Christian, that’s not just a metaphor, it’s a lifestyle. By day, he navigates the ever-shifting tides of the cryptocurrency market, wielding words like a seasoned editor and crafting articles that decipher the jargon for the masses. When the PC goes on hibernate mode, however, his pursuits take a more mechanical (and sometimes philosophical) turn.
Christian’s journey with the written word began long before the age of Bitcoin. In the hallowed halls of academia, he honed his craft as a feature writer for his college paper. This early love for storytelling paved the way for a successful stint as an editor at a data engineering firm, where his first-month essay win funded a months-long supply of doggie and kitty treats – a testament to his dedication to his furry companions (more on that later).
Christian then roamed the world of journalism, working at newspapers in Canada and even South Korea. He finally settled down at a local news giant in his hometown in the Philippines for a decade, becoming a total news junkie. But then, something new caught his eye: cryptocurrency. It was like a treasure hunt mixed with storytelling – right up his alley!
So, he landed a killer gig at NewsBTC, where he’s one of the go-to guys for all things crypto. He breaks down this confusing stuff into bite-sized pieces, making it easy for anyone to understand (he salutes his management team for teaching him this skill).
Think Christian’s all work and no play? Not a chance! When he’s not at his computer, you’ll find him indulging his passion for motorbikes. A true gearhead, Christian loves tinkering with his bike and savoring the joy of the open road on his 320-cc Yamaha R3. Once a speed demon who hit 120mph (a feat he vowed never to repeat), he now prefers leisurely rides along the coast, enjoying the wind in his thinning hair.
Speaking of chill, Christian’s got a crew of furry friends waiting for him at home. Two cats and a dog. He swears cats are way smarter than dogs (sorry, Grizzly), but he adores them all anyway. Apparently, watching his pets just chillin’ helps him analyze and write meticulously formatted articles even better.
Here’s the thing about this guy: He works a lot, but he keeps himself fueled by enough coffee to make it through the day – and some seriously delicious (Filipino) food. He says a delectable meal is the secret ingredient to a killer article. And after a long day of crypto crusading, he unwinds with some rum (mixed with milk) while watching slapstick movies.
Looking ahead, Christian sees a bright future with NewsBTC. He says he sees himself privileged to be part of an awesome organization, sharing his expertise and passion with a community he values, and fellow editors – and bosses – he deeply respects.
So, the next time you tread into the world of cryptocurrency, remember the man behind the words – the crypto crusader, the grease monkey, and the feline philosopher, all rolled into one.
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Bitcoin Miner MARA Holdings Raises $1B To Buy More Bitcoin
Published
4 hours agoon
November 21, 2024By
adminBitcoin Miner MARA Holdings has raised approximately $1 billion through the sale of its convertible notes. The Bitcoin miner revealed that some of the proceeds from this sale would be used to buy more BTC, although they didn’t mention the exact amount.
Marathon Digital Raises $1B To Buy More Bitcoin
In a press release, the Bitcoin miner revealed that it had raised net proceeds of $980 million from its convertible notes sale after deducting the initial purchaser’s discounts and commissions but before the estimated offering expenses payable by the company.
This development is significant as MARA Holdings revealed that it will use some of the net proceeds to acquire additional BTC. It is worth mentioning that the Bitcoin miner already holds around 27,000 BTC and is the public company with the second-largest Bitcoin holdings.
This development comes as MARA also recently unveiled plans to raise $700m through convertible notes, which will mature in 2030. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin miner looks to be going head-to-head with MicroStrategy, which also recently upsized its private offering to $2.6 billion. The software company will use some of the proceeds to buy more BTC.
Boluwatife Adeyemi
Boluwatife Adeyemi is a well-experienced crypto news writer and editor who has covered topics that cut across DeFi, NFTs, smart contracts, and blockchain interoperability, among others. Boluwatife has a knack for simplifying the most technical concepts and making it easy for crypto newbies to understand. Away from writing, He is an avid basketball lover and a part-time degen.
Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.
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Bitcoin
Analyst Says Six-Figure Bitcoin Price Incoming – But Warns One Factor Could Delay BTC Rally Till Next Year
Published
7 hours agoon
November 21, 2024By
adminAnalyst Benjamin Cowen is leaning bullish on Bitcoin (BTC) while warning that one factor could delay the flagship crypto asset from reaching $100,000 before the end of this year.
In an appearance on The David Lin Report, Cowen says that Bitcoin is primed to hit a six-figure price based on historical precedent.
“If you go look at like year-to-date return on investment (ROI)… and you average out all the prior halving years, we’re actually tracking it pretty closely. So if you average out 2012, 2016 and 2020 and then you overlay 2024, right now Bitcoin is at its average of prior halving years – so it’s basically 2x from the yearly open… the average of the other prior three halving years was also 2x from the yearly open.
You can see that the average from the yearly open by the end of the halving year for those was closer to 3x. So if Bitcoin can continue to follow the cyclical view, then it should be able to [reach $100,000].”
Cowen, however, says that a higher-than-expected unemployment rate could delay Bitcoin’s ascent to a six-figure price.
“I think the only thing that would prevent it from doing so would be labor market results that we’re going to get in two weeks.
So my base case is if the unemployment rate comes in low, let’s say it comes in at 4%, 4.1% maybe even 4.2%, would not be so bad. That would favor the cyclical view prevailing.
If it comes in really hot, for whatever reason, let’s say it comes in at 4.3% or 4.4%, then we might have to wait until 2025 for $100,000. That’s the way I see it right now.”
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