Tariffs and trade tensions could ultimately be positive for bitcoin (BTC) adoption in the medium term, asset manager Grayscale said in a research report Wednesday.

Higher tariffs result in stagflation— stagnant economic growth coupled with inflation — which is negative for traditional assets, but positive for scarce commodities such as gold, the report said.

Bitcoin is considered hard money, akin to digital gold, and is viewed as a modern store of value, the report noted.

Cryptocurrencies surged on Wednesday following President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 90-day pause on tariffs for countries that haven’t retaliated against the U.S.

“Trade tensions may put pressure on reserve demand for the U.S. Dollar, opening space for competing assets, including other fiat currencies, gold, and bitcoin,” Grayscale said.

Historical precedent suggests that dollar weakness and above-average inflation may persist, and bitcoin is likely to benefit from such a macro backdrop, the asset manager said.

“A rapidly improving market structure, supported by U.S. government policy changes” could help broaden bitcoin’s investor base, the report added.

Read more: Trump Administration Wants Weaker Dollar and That’s Positive for Bitcoin: Bitwise

As of Wednesday morning, the yield on the UK’s 30-year government bond soared to 5.5%—its highest level since 1998—mirroring a broader climb in U.S. sovereign yields and sparking fresh concerns about financial market stability.

Surging global bond yields are exerting significant downward pressure on risk assets. Since the U.S. equity sell-off began last Thursday, the Nasdaq has dropped 10%, while bitcoin (BTC) has fared slightly better, down 8% over the same period.

In the same time the U.K. 30-year bond yield is up 8%, while the U.S. 30-year is up 12%. Charlie Morris, founder of ByteTree, believes investors will start to seek diversification into other assets including bitcoin.

“It appears that the UK has been living beyond its means for too long. It hasn’t balanced its budget since 2001, the gilt market has had enough”, Morris said. “Investors seeking diversification away from financial assets will not only buy gold, but bitcoin too”.

The dramatic spike in yields has revived unsettling memories of the UK’s 2022 pension crisis, when a sudden surge in borrowing costs triggered a near-collapse of the financial system and ultimately cost then-Prime Minister Liz Truss her job.

This latest bond market turmoil is being driven by escalating uncertainty around global trade, stoked by President Donald Trump’s proposed tariff plans. These levies could disrupt global supply chains and increase costs, adding pressure to already jittery markets.

“Alas, in politics you never get what you want by making civil arguments from high principle,” former UK MP Steve Baker told CoinDesk in an exclusive interview. “President Trump said he was using brute economic force—and he is. It’s time to rediscover free trade at home and abroad, fast, before this chaos wrecks our futures.”

The recent yield surge echoes the events of 2022, when a surprise mini-budget announcement on Sept. 23 sent gilt yields soaring, crashed the pound, and exposed deep vulnerabilities in the UK pension system.

Many defined benefit pension schemes had adopted complex liability-driven investment (LDI) strategies, using leverage and derivatives to match long-term liabilities. But as yields spiked, these funds suffered massive mark-to-market losses and faced margin calls, forcing rapid gilt sales into a thin market and creating a destabilizing “fire sale” feedback loop.

At the time, UK pension funds held around 28% of the gilt market. The ensuing chaos, occurring in a modest $1.5 trillion market, was so severe that it required the Bank of England to step in with emergency gilt purchases to halt the downward spiral. A Chicago Fed Letter analyzing the crisis later identified excessive leverage, asset pooling, and the limited depth of the gilt market as key structural weaknesses—particularly in contrast to the much larger $9.9 trillion U.S. Treasury market.

The crypto market’s relief rally fizzled out on Tuesday as stocks gave up big early gains and turned lower alongside the Trump administration’s plan to imminently enforce punitive tariffs against China.

After staging a brief rally to the $80,000 mark, bitcoin (BTC) had slumped back to $76,500 before stabilizing below $78,000. Recently, the top cryptocurrency was down 1.2% in the last 24 hours, while ether (ETH) lost nearly 4% over the same period and fell below $1,500. The CoinDesk 20 — an index of the top 20 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, except for stablecoins, memecoins and exchange coins — was down 2.2%.

Crypto equities have also taken a hit, with bitcoin miner Bitdeer (BTDR) leading the way with a 8.7% loss. Strategy (MSTR) is down 5.3% and Coinbase (COIN) 2.3%. One outlier is DeFi Technologies (DEFTF), which is up 10.27%, potentially due to an expectation from some of its shareholders that the Toronto-based company could soon follow in Galaxy Digital’s (GLXY) footsteps and get listed on the U.S. Nasdaq.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are down 0.5% and 0.7%, respectively — modest losses, but sharply reversed from roughly 4% advances earlier in the session.

The price action happened as the White House announced during the day that 104% additional tariffs on Chinese goods would take effect at midnight on Tuesday. The tariff news put additional pressure on the Chinese currency, with the offshore yuan (CNH) rapidly depreciating against the U.S. dollar during the day to 7.4, its weakest levels in years.

Some have suggested that Beijing could respond to the tariffs by allowing a sizable weakening in the yuan, thus making China’s exports more competitive than otherwise. Bitcoin bulls have seized on that idea, noting a devaluation in the yuan would surely lead to capital flight from China, with at least some of that money potentially looking to hide out in bitcoin.

“If not the Fed then the PBOC will give us the yahtzee ingredients,” wrote Arthur Hayes. “It worked in 2013 , 2015, and can work in 2025,” he continued. “Ignore China at your own peril.”

Read more: Bitcoin Analysts Optimistic as China Surprisingly Fixes Yuan Beyond 7.2 Level

“We are currently in a phase of heightened uncertainty, with persistent trade disputes, geopolitical friction, active conflicts and growing fears of a global slowdown,” Kirill Kretov of cryptocurrency trading automation platform CoinPanel told CoinDesk in a Telegram note.

The choppy market conditions will likely remain, Kretov noted, with shallow liquidity on crypto and traditional markets exacerbating volatility. “Until more participants adjust to and capitalize on this environment, we’re unlikely to see a strong directional trend,” he added.