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Bitcoin price analysis

Selling Pressure Resumes Post-Fed Rate Decision

Published

4 months ago

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On Wednesday, the BTC price showcased low volatility after the US Federal Reserve announced its fifth interest rate decision. During the Jerome Powell speech, no significant move was observed, but a slight decline remained due to the prevailing bearish momentum.

Fed Holds Rates Steady in July 2024

The U.S. Federal Reserve announced its latest decision on interest rates on July 31, 2024, following a two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The central bank decided to maintain the federal funds rate within the range of 5.25% to 5.50%, which aligns with market expectations. This marks the seventh consecutive meeting where rates have been held steady after a series of aggressive hikes that began in March 2022 to combat inflation.

Holding rates steady can bolster investor confidence, as it indicates a measured response to current economic conditions rather than a sudden shift in monetary policy. FOMC statement-

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals continue to move into better balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.

Wedge Pattern Indicates Potential BTC Price Drop

During Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Wednesday, the Bitcoin price remained stable at around $66,000. However, supply pressure soon returned to the crypto market, resulting in a more than 2% drop in Bitcoin to $64,750, with its market cap decreasing to $1.278 trillion. 

This decline marks a notable reversal in BTC’s daily chart at the resistance line of the broadening wedge pattern, a setup characterized by diverging trendlines that have governed its consolidation trend in recent months.

Historically, reversals from this pattern’s resistance have led to significant corrections testing the lower boundary. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) nearing a bearish crossover suggests that further selling pressure could prolong the price correction. If the selling continues, BTC price forecast targets drop to $63,370, followed by $60,000.

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD Chart Image by sahilmahadik07

Conversely, the daily Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) for 50 and 100 days, currently near $63,370, might provide support and prevent a further downturn. If this potential reversal fails, it could pave the way for a breakout from the wedge pattern, enabling BTC to surpass its previous high of $73,680.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions (banks and credit unions) lend reserve balances to other depository institutions overnight on an uncollateralized basis.

Market supply pressure in the cryptocurrency context refers to the increase in the amount of Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies being sold in the market.

The formation of wedge pattern follows buyers to recuperate the exhausted bullish momentum. Thus, a breach beyond the pattern resistance will project a better signal for ATH rally

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Sahil Mahadik

Sahil is a dedicated full-time trader with over three years of experience in the financial markets. Armed with a strong grasp of technical analysis, he keeps a vigilant eye on the daily price movements of top assets and indices. Drawn by his fascination with financial instruments, Sahil enthusiastically embraced the emerging realm of cryptocurrency, where he continues to explore opportunities driven by his passion for trading

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.





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Bitcoin price analysis

Historical Trend Hints Bitcoin Price Still 25% Away From November Peak

Published

2 weeks ago

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November 11, 2024

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The cryptocurrency market maintained its bullish momentum during Monday’s U.S. market session, with Bitcoin price continuing to hit new highs. This recovery trend rally, backed by whale accumulation and increasing trading volume, accentuates the bull’s conviction for the prolonged uptrend. Has BTC reached its November peak, or is there room for further growth?

With crypto market today, the BTC price had traded at $81,586, with an intraday gain of 1.444%. According to Coingecko, the asset’s market cap surged to $1.62 Trillion, while the 24-hour trading volume wavers at $78.8 Billion.

Bitcoin Price Poised for Parabolic Growth with Critical Weekly Close

Historically, November has been a strong month for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, often delivering significant gains. According to Coinglass data, Bitcoin recorded a 450% surge in November 2013, followed by 53% in 2017 and 43% in 2020, solidifying its reputation as a bullish period.

On average, Bitcoin price prediction has recorded a 44% growth in November over the past decade. As of November 2024, the current price trajectory delivered a 17.78% surge but still trailed 25% behind average growth potential.

If history repeats, the BTC price could extend its recovery past the $1,00,000 psychological level.

BTCBTC
Bitcoin Monthly returns| Coinglass

BTC Exchange Outflows Surge as Investors Embrace HODLing

In a recent tweet, renowned analyst Ali Martinez highlights a substantial outflow of Bitcoins from crypto exchanges amid a recent rally. According to Glassnode data, 40,000 BTC ( worth approximately $3.28 billion) have been withdrawn from exchanges within the past week.

This significant outflow reflects a declining exchange balance, which could indicate increased long-term holding sentiment among investors. The BTC price rally backed aggressive accumulation trend bolstered the potential for a higher rally.

BTC Price Analysis Hints Major Breakout From Flag Pattern

Over the past seven months, the Bitcoin price witnessed a stubborn consolidation with the formation of a flag pattern. This sideways trend, resonating between two trendlines, typically benefits the market bulls to recuperate the bullish momentum.

Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 presidential election acted as a necessary catalyst for the coin price to give a massive breakout flag resistance. Since last, the coin price showed a significant rally from $67,813 to $82,350, registering a 21.4% growth.

If the pattern holds true, the BTC price could reach $1,02,000 high.

Bitcoin PriceBitcoin Price
BTC/USD -1d Chart

On the contrary, a Bitcoin price could soon witness an occasional pullback to replenish its buying pressure, potentially selling support at key daily EMAs 20 and 50.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

As of November 2024, Bitcoin has surged by 17.78%. However, it still trails 25% behind its historical average growth potential

The flag pattern formation, observed over the past seven months, typically signals a continuation of the bullish trend

The recent rally is backed by whale accumulation, increasing trading volumes, and significant exchange outflows

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Sahil Mahadik

Sahil is a dedicated full-time trader with over three years of experience in the financial markets. Armed with a strong grasp of technical analysis, he keeps a vigilant eye on the daily price movements of top assets and indices. Drawn by his fascination with financial instruments, Sahil enthusiastically embraced the emerging realm of cryptocurrency, where he continues to explore opportunities driven by his passion for trading

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.





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Analyst Reveals Bitcoin’s ‘Chopsolidation’ Phase Nears End—Are New Highs in Sight?

Published

2 weeks ago

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November 6, 2024

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Bitcoin market trend may be on the verge of a significant shift, according to a recent analysis shared by CryptoQuant analyst Percival.

Percival described Bitcoin’s current phase as “chopsolidation,” a term used to describe a period of minimal directional movement where price consolidation occurs without a clear trend.

This period, he suggests, may be drawing to a close, with an imminent market movement expected in the coming weeks. The Chopsolidations metric, as Percival notes, doesn’t predict the direction of Bitcoin’s next move.

Instead, it assesses the exhaustion level of the current trend, helping to determine whether Bitcoin’s price is due for a reversal or continuation. Percival’s analysis highlights that while there are indicators of strength at various points, the market remains divided on Bitcoin’s next direction.

So far, some investors believe that recent accumulation is sufficient to push Bitcoin past its all-time high, while others expect a more cautious upward movement or even a potential correction.

Assessing Bitcoin’s Support Levels And Potential Price Rebound

Percival’s analysis further points to two key periods in September and October where Bitcoin established notable support levels, marked by brief but significant price stability zones.

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart.

These areas, which he identified as orange zones on his chart (shared above), served as points where Bitcoin’s price “reloaded” — essentially, zones where demand was strong enough to halt price declines temporarily.

With the current price hovering near these support levels, Percival suggests that the market may find a new bottom if Bitcoin faces any short-term downward pressure. This support could create a foundation for upward movement in the weeks ahead.

The Chopsolidations indicator, according to the CryptoQuant analyst’s breakdown, is showing signs of readiness for a strong trend based on weekly and monthly readings.

Although he did not specify a particular directional bias, he noted that the current market strength could be enough to drive Bitcoin’s price upwards if additional demand or a favorable macroeconomic environment aligns with market sentiment.

This trend could play out over the short term, where sufficient market activity might lift Bitcoin’s price.

Bitcoin Continuous Struggle To Make A Major Move

So far, Bitcoin’s price has continued to face a struggle to make a significant move, especially to the upside. Instead, the asset has seen a form of calmness in volatility following its recent decline below the $70,000 price mark.

Particularly, at the time of writing, the asset currently trades for $68,721—a price region BTC has remained quite stable for the past 3 days since its most recent decline.

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart on TradingView

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView



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Dormant Bitcoin Wallet From 2012 Awakens, Moving Millions—BTC Price To Dip?

Published

3 weeks ago

on

October 30, 2024

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Este artículo también está disponible en español.

A Bitcoin wallet containing around 749 BTC, equivalent to roughly $53.2 million, has been reactivated after nearly 12 years of inactivity.

This sudden move in funds was detected in the early hours of Tuesday, as blockchain tracking platforms such as Mempool and Whale Alert recorded a transfer of approximately 159.2 BTC, valued at $11.3 million, from this long-dormant wallet.

The last known transaction from this address was back in November 2012, when Bitcoin’s price was around $10, making the wallet’s balance worth below $9,000.

Details Of The Moved Millions

Data from on-chain monitoring platform Mempool, shows that the recent transaction was conducted at 7:28 a.m. UTC. Of the 159.2 BTC transferred, about 124.2 BTC, or $8.8 million, was sent back to the sender’s address, labeled as “change” by blockchain analytics firm Blockchair.

The remaining 35 BTC, or $2.4 million, was transferred to an unknown address. Details surrounding the wallet’s owner and their intentions remain unidentified, leaving the crypto community speculating on the motive behind the transaction and the identity of the long-term Bitcoin holder.

However, the timing of the awakening of this dormant wallet is quite noteworthy. It comes at a time when Bitcoin has been seeing consistent increases in price in recent weeks. Particularly, the asset has finally broken above the $70,000 resistance with a current trading price of $72,638 up by 5.3% in the past day.

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart on TradingView
BTC price is moving upwards on the 2-hour chart. Source: BTC/USDT on TradingView.com

Notably, movements from long-inactive wallets have historically generated intrigue, with crypto enthusiasts theorizing that these could be the actions of early adopters, lost-and-found wallets, or entities choosing strategic timing to engage with the market.

Although the reason behind this wallet move of its BTC isn’t certain, reactivating wallets like this one especially as Bitcoin continues to surge in price might indicate shifts in holders’ strategies, driven by favorable market conditions or other personal financial objectives.

Bitcoin Onchain Performance

Awakening of wallet aside, Bitcoin has been seeing quite an interesting and positive trend behind the scenes, especially regarding on-chain metrics. So far, analysts have highlighted several BTC metrics that are now flashing a positive momentum for the asset, suggesting further price increases.

For instance, yesterday, a CryptoQuant analyst known as Darkfost disclosed that Bitcoin hash ribbons have flashed a buy signal. Darkfost noted:

Historically, purchasing Bitcoin during a Hash Ribbons signal has aligned with strong long-term returns. Recently, we saw another signal following the major one this past summer.

Another metric suggesting price increase for Bitcoin highlighted by a CryptoQuant analyst named BinhDang is the Stablecoin Supply Ratio Oscillator (SSRO). According to BinhDang in a recent post, this metric has bottomed to levels not seen in 2022. A move that preceded a rally.

Notably, the Stablecoin Supply Ratio Oscillator provides insights into Bitcoin market demand by analyzing Bitcoin’s market cap against that of major stablecoins.

The oscillator measures the extent to which stablecoins, commonly used for Bitcoin purchases, flow into Bitcoin and thus signal purchasing interest. A low value of the metric signals more stablecoins are being converted to Bitcoin, therefore suggesting increasing demand.

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView





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