If you’re fixated on the price of Bitcoin, then you may already have your answer.

On Election Day, America’s choice between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris carries consequences for the crypto industry—from a potential shakeup at the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to the passage of a regulatory framework.

It could take days to determine Tuesday’s White House winner, but analysts told Decrypt that there are several tea leaves that traders could read into in the meantime, ranging from Senate races to the resiliency of Bitcoin’s price in the face of normally bearish news.

While Bernstein analysts forecast that Bitcoin could pop to $90,000 on a Trump victory earlier this week, Amberdata’s Director of Derivatives Greg Magadini told Decrypt that the Bitcoin futures “market is pretty convinced a Trump victory brings us past $80,000” by the end of the month.

Bitcoin is currently trading for about $69,150 as of this writing, up more than 3% on the day—though it’s dipped from a daily high above $70,500 on Tuesday morning.

The implied volatility of Bitcoin futures contracts, measuring how much the market expects the asset’s price to change, is quite elevated at above 80%, Magadini added. The last two times the metric pushed as high was when spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January and amid last year’s banking crisis, suggesting Bitcoin’s price could swing forcefully in either direction, he said.

Though Trump has turned himself into a vocal supporter of digital assets on the campaign trail, Grayscale’s Managing Director of Research Zach Pandl told Decrypt that Senate races are ultimately the most important barometer for the future outlook of the crypto industry.

Because the Senate has the authority to approve presidential appointees at agencies like the SEC, Harris’ camp would likely collaborate with Republicans if they’re able to gain control, Pandl said. At the same time, the Senate’s makeup could determine how the regulatory backdrop surrounding decentralized finance and the tokenization of assets develops, he said.

“As long as we see Republican control of the Senate, we think that we will have a balanced mix of financial service regulators in the United States that would put the whole industry on solid footing for the coming years,” Pandl said. “In my personal opinion, there’s actually more election risk for Ethereum and other coins beyond Bitcoin.”

The sentiment was echoed by Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan, who highlighted Solana’s 3.8% rise Tuesday to $165 as evidence of traders positioning around the election’s regulatory implications.

“I think Solana is the asset to keep an eye on,” he said. “Of the major assets, it’s probably the most exposed to the difference in regulatory uncertainty between a Harris and Trump regime.”

Alongside Bitcoin’s rise Tuesday, GSR Head of Research Brian Ruddick told Decrypt that some traders may be trying to allocate to the asset early based on Trump’s White House prospects.

Given that spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $500 million in net outflows Monday, he said the move would typically hurt Bitcoin’s price. Meanwhile, the defunct crypto exchange Mt. Gox moved $2.2 billion worth of Bitcoin to a new wallet late Monday, a move that has historically caused some market volatility.

“Prices are higher despite some negative news over the last day,” Ruddick said. “It seems like traders are trying to front-run the election and a potential Trump win.”

Edited by Andrew Hayward

Bitcoin has experienced wild price swings since Vice President Kamala Harris announced her candidacy for the U.S. Presidential election in July 2024.

The largest cryptocurrency attempted to test its previous all-time high of $73,738 on Oct. 29, 2024, with no success. Traders expect higher volatility closer to elections and in the aftermath of the event. Crypto prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi provide insight into crypto traders’ views. 

Polymarket sees about $3.21 billion in trading volume as participants wager on the winner of the November elections. Harris’ opponent, former U.S. President Donald Trump, is a clear favorite, with 61.1% bets in his favor, on Polymarket.

Kalshi, a prediction market regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission places the odds of Trump’s win at 56.8% against Harris’ 43.2%. The betting contract has drawn $234.98 million as of November 5, 2024. 

The efficacy of betting markets in predicting a winner in the election remains debatable, however it sheds light on the sentiment among crypto traders. 

Trump rallied crypto traders’ support with his pro-crypto approach to regulation, and speech at the Nashville Bitcoin Conference. The former U.S. President shared his plans for a national Bitcoin reserve and proposed making the States a world leader in BTC mining. The former President’s plan is that the U.S. will hold 100% of the Bitcoin in its possession. 

Harris’ “Opportunity Agenda for Black Men” is a proposal that reflects the Vice President’s stance on crypto, while much detail is left out, it points at a measured approach to the asset class. 

U.S. markets won’t be open late on Tuesday, as states tally votes, however crypto is a major exception and a Trump win could push Bitcoin closer to the $80,000 level according to data from BTC derivatives markets. 

Derivatives data points at a run to the range between $60k – $80k

Deribit’s Bitcoin Volatility Index shows a consistent rise in volatility since September 26, 2024, however the metric failed to see a major move like one noted during President Joe Biden’s exit from the Presidential election, in July, and the U.S. markets correction in August.

For the weeks following the elections, data from Deribit exchange highlights the $60,000 to $80,000 range, as the one that collects the peak open interest, or outstanding futures contracts for both bullish and bearish bets of traders. 

Bitcoin Spot Exchange Traded Fund inflow data from Farside Investors shows a net outflow of $541.10 million on Nov. 4. This marks the second consecutive day of institutional investors pulling capital from the asset, likely preparing for the volatility in the aftermath of the election.

Combining data from the prediction market and Farside Investors’ BTC ETF flows, it is observed that institutional investors expressed confidence in Bitcoin and increased their capital flow when the odds of a Trump win were higher, nearly 67%, on October 30. Bitcoin ETFs received a net of $893.3 million in inflows on the same day. 

In March, (BTC) Bitcoin hit its all-time high of $73,738 in response to the large volume of capital inflow to U.S. based Spot Bitcoin ETFs. At the time of writing, on Tuesday, November 5, Bitcoin hovers around the $69,000 level, less than 10% away from the all-time high. 

Technical analysis: Bitcoin eyes rally to new ATH

Key events since July 2024 have aided the price swings observed in Bitcoin. The BTC/USDT daily chart from TradingView shows BTC’s attempt to test its previous all-time high post Harris’s announcement of her proposal for crypto. 

Derivatives data highlights the importance of the $60,000 to $80,000 range for Bitcoin price. The asset traded within this range throughout the events since July, with the exception of its August 5 decline to $49,000. 

BTC is in a short-term uptrend, starting Aug. 5 and the token could extend its gains, forming higher highs and higher lows, post the eve of the elections, in the aftermath. Bitcoin’s previous all-time high at $73,738 is a key resistance and a successful break past this level could push BTC closer to its $80,000 target. 

Bitcoin is still undervalued ahead of the election

Crypto.news talked to experts ti get insights on Bitcoin price.

“With the US Election taking place today, many believe that the price of crypto will be immediately swayed by the candidate who wins, since they have varying stances on the future of digital assets, with Trump historically being more inclusive of digital assets than Harris. While this may be true in the short term, traders should also consider that the price of crypto goes beyond what party directly supports and relies more heavily on policies they will implement around inflation, global political discourse, and the availability of investment opportunities within the digital assets space.”

BingX spokesperson

The BingX executive believes that the current cycle is one of the worst-performing ones, post the Bitcoin halving, leading to the belief that BTC is still undervalued. 

“If we look at other market sentiment indicators, crypto-related stocks have been climbing, with MicroStrategy, and Robinhood both up in the month before today’s election. In general, the digital asset community should expect to see the price of digital assets rise solely based on historical indicators.”

“If the elected candidate is supportive of crypto, it could boost market confidence; if not, it could introduce some uncertainty. The uncertainty surrounding the election outcome could trigger market fluctuations. Investors should closely monitor election developments and market reactions and be prepared to manage risks accordingly.”

Ryan Lee, Chief Analyst at Bitget Research

“Politics is a secondary factor, and historical analysis suggests that one or two major catalysts typically drive bull markets.” Thielen explains how it would be absurd, “to assume that when Fed Chair Bernanke maintained low interest rates in 2011, your neighbor suddenly decided to use Bitcoin to buy contraband on the Silk Road exchange,” meaning looking for direct correlation between election outcomes and Bitcoin price reaction may be less than ideal. 

Markus Thielen, CEO at 10x Research

The executive argues that the primary driver of the Bitcoin rally is the institutional adoption of BTC, sparked by BlackRock’s application for a Spot BTC ETF earlier this year. 

Mt. Gox moved another $2.2 billion worth of Bitcoin on Monday amid an extended period of volatility that has seen the crypto oscillating between $73,000 and $65,000 over the past few weeks.

The defunct crypto exchange’s recent transfer was identified through wallets tracked by blockchain analytics firm Arkham Intelligence, which disclosed the movement of 32,371 BTC, with the majority—30,371 BTC—directed to wallet address “1FG2C…Rveoy.” 

An additional 2,000 BTC was initially moved to a Mt. Gox cold wallet before being transferred to a separate unmarked wallet, Arkham data shows.

It comes as Bitcoin briefly slid below $68,000 during Asian market trading, recording a 1% decline over 24 hours. The asset has since clawed back losses, trading at $68,700.

Market analysts anticipate heightened volatility this week, projecting potential price swings of up to $8,000 as U.S. election activities add to market uncertainty.

Monday’s significant movement also follows a smaller transfer of 500 BTC to two unidentified wallets in late September, which marked the exchange’s first activity since that period. 

These transfers historically precede distributions to creditors through established crypto exchanges, including Bitstamp and Kraken.

Notably, the timing of this latest transfer coincides with Mt. Gox’s recent announcement that it is extending its repayment deadline by one year. 

This extension affects thousands of creditors who lost assets during the exchange’s 2014 security breach, which resulted in the theft of approximately 850,000 BTC—valued at over $15 billion at current market prices.

Mt. Gox’s historical significance in the crypto industry ecosystem adds weight to these movements as well. 

Founded in 2010, the exchange once dominated Bitcoin trading, handling over 70% of global transactions before its collapse after a series of hacks between 2011 and 2014. 

The security breach marked one of the industry’s most significant setbacks, leading to years of legal proceedings and recovery efforts.

In any case, the repayment process represents one of the cryptocurrency industry’s longest-running recovery efforts, with implications extending beyond immediate market dynamics. 

While short-term volatility is expected, the market’s maturity since Mt. Gox’s 2014 collapse may help buffer against dramatic price swings, with Bitcoin often displaying resilience against such events.

Edited by Sebastian Sinclair