Markets
The 7 Oddest Political Betting Pools on Polymarket
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4 months agoon
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adminPolitical turmoil in the U.S. has prompted surging interest in the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, with users wagering hundreds of millions of dollars on the outcome of the presidential election in November.
Polymarket allows anyone to create a market to wager the outcome of nearly any event. With fewer than 90 days until the election, political betting pools are on the rise. In July, activity on the platform surged, with close to 40,000 traders collectively betting well over $300 million across all sorts of pools.
While much of the money allocated to Polymarket pools has gone to the most popular wagers—such as who will be the next U.S. president—other investors have taken a more unorthodox approach.
Indeed, pools have emerged to cover a host of unusual political scenarios. These are some of the most curious political betting pools currently on Polymarket—some of which are real head-scratchers.
Will Harris Campaign Accept Crypto Donations This Month?
As of this writing, users have put up just over $53,000 to bet on whether Kamala Harris’ campaign will accept crypto donations by September.
For crypto enthusiasts, the odds currently available on Polymarket don’t look promising: at this point the pool gives only a 14% chance that this outcome will come to pass sometime in the month of August.
Note that, in order to resolve to a “yes” outcome, the campaign only needs to announce its intention to accept crypto donations in August, not actually implement a donation mechanism.
Will Trump Launch a Coin Before the Election?
Polymarket users have placed bets on whether Donald Trump will launch a cryptocurrency prior to the election. The outcome will be “yes” if “conclusive, definitive evidence” emerges that Trump was involved in the launch of a new token by the end of the day on November 4.
More than $263,000 is currently on the table for this bet, though the pool gives 19% odds of a favorable outcome—rising significantly after Trump’s sons, Eric and Donald Trump Jr. teased that they’re working on a “huge” crypto project.
Will Trump Be in Jail Before Election Day?
If Trump spends at least 48 consecutive hours in custody in a jail or prison prior to the election in November, “yes” voters in this pool will win a payout. This pool has been in place since January of this year and the odds of a “yes” outcome have climbed as high as 25%, though they are currently just 5%. Over $1.4 million rides on this outcome.
Will Trump Be President By September 1?
One of the wackiest political pools of all is one concerning a scenario in which Trump becomes president before September 1 of this year.
This date is ahead of both the election and next January’s inauguration date, so it would theoretically require Trump to be the Speaker of the House and to succeed both President Biden and Vice President Harris in the next month. Perhaps unsurprisingly, this outcome has only done as well as 2%, and now has 0% odds.
Covid Lab Leak Confirmed By U.S. in 2024?
Some of the unusual political pools on Polymarket do not revolve around the upcoming election. One example is a pool, currently representing $276,000 in total bets, on whether the U.S. government will confirm that the initial COVID-19 virus came from a lab. At this writing, the odds of a “yes” outcome are just 8%.
Will the U.S. Confirm That Aliens Exist in 2024?
Conspiracy theorists may choose to focus on another wild Polymarket pool, in this case questioning whether the U.S. government confirms that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before the end of the year. About $115,000 rests on this outcome for now, though at 4%, it has roughly the same odds as Trump spending two days in prison prior to Election Day.
Will A New Country Buy Bitcoin in 2024?
Another pool particularly relevant to crypto enthusiasts asks whether a new country will buy Bitcoin for the first time this year. Any sovereign UN member state which has not previously disclosed a Bitcoin purchase has the potential to ensure a “yes” outcome by making an announcement of this type. Over $73,000 rides on this outcome, which currently has a 39% chance of occurring, per Polymarket.
Edited by Ryan Ozawa
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Perp-Focused HyperLiquid Experiences Record $60M in USDC Net Outflows
Published
4 hours agoon
December 23, 2024By
adminHyperLiquid, a layer-1 blockchain and decentralized exchange for perpetual futures (perps), has experienced a notable outflow of the USDC stablecoin amid speculation North Korean hackers are interacting with the platform, according to a post on X by pseudonymous observer Tay, known for tracking threats posed by to crypto protocols by the country.
A record $60 million of USDC fled the exchange by 10:00 UTC Monday, according to Hashed Official’s Dune-based tracker. USDC, the world’s second-largest dollar-pegged stablecoin, is used as collateral on HyperLiquid. The deposit bridge still holds $2.2 billion in USDC.
Addresses associated with hackers from the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) have accrued losses exceeding $700,000 while trading on HyperLiquid, Tay said. The transactions indicate the hackers are potentially familiarizing themselves with the platform’s inner workings to launch a malicious attack.
“DPRK doesn’t trade. DPRK tests,” Tay said.
CoinDesk contacted HyperLiquid on X for comments on the USDC outflows and potential threat from North Korea.
Tay said they reached out to the platform two weeks ago, offering help in countering a potential threat.
“I really want to emphasize that these are the most sophisticated and rapidly evolving of all of the DPRK threat groups. They are very creative and persistent. They also get their hands on 0days (such as the one Chrome patched today,” Tay’s message to the platform said.
HyperLiquid is the leading on-chain perpetuals exchange, commanding over 50% of the total on-chain perpetuals trading volume, which tallied $8.6 billion in the past 24 hours.
The platform debuted its token HYPE on Nov. 29. Since then, it has
surged over 600% to $28.6, briefly topping $10 billion in market capitalization. As of writing, HYPE was the 22nd largest digital asset in the world, according to Coingecko.
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DeFi
DeFi Protocol Usual’s Surge Catapults Hashnote’s Tokenized Treasury Over BlackRock’s BUIDL
Published
20 hours agoon
December 22, 2024By
adminThere’s been a change of guard at the rankings of the $3.4 billion tokenized Treasuries market.
Asset manager Hashnote’s USYC token zoomed over $1.2 billion in market capitalization, growing five-fold in size over the past three months, rwa.xyz data shows. It has toppled the $450 million BUIDL, issued by asset management behemoth BlackRock and tokenization firm Securitize, which was the largest product by size since April.
USYC is the token representation of the Hashnote International Short Duration Yield Fund, which, according to the company’s website, invests in reverse repo agreements on U.S. government-backed securities and Treasury bills held in custody at the Bank of New York Mellon.
Hashnote’s quick growth underscores the importance of interconnecting tokenized products with decentralized finance (DeFi) applications and presenting their tokens available as building blocks for other products — or composability, in crypto lingo — to scale and reach broader adoption. It also showcases crypto investors’ appetite for yield-generating stablecoins, which are increasingly backed by tokenized products.
USYC, for example, has greatly benefited from the rapid ascent of the budding decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol Usual and its real-world asset-backed, yield-generating stablecoin, USD0.
Usual is pursuing the market share of centralized stablecoins like Tether’s USDT and Circle’s USDC by redistributing a portion of revenues from its stablecoin’s backing assets to holders. USD0 is primarily backed by USYC currently, but the protocol aims to add more RWAs to reserves in the future. It has recently announced the addition of Ethena’s USDtb stablecoin, which is built on top of BUIDL.
“The bull market triggered a massive inflow into stablecoins, yet the core issue with the largest stablecoins remains: they lack rewards for end users and do not give access to the yield they generate,” said David Shuttleworth, partner at Anagram. “Moreover, users do not get access to the protocol’s equity by holding USDT or USDC.”
“Usual’s appeal is that it redistributes the yield along with ownership in the protocol back to users,” he added.
The protocol, and hence its USD0 stablecoin, has raked in $1.3 billion over the past few months as crypto investors chased on-chain yield opportunities. Another significant catalyst of growth was the protocol’s governance token (USUAL) airdrop and exchange listing on Wednesday. USUAL started trading on Binance on Wednesday, and vastly outperformed the shaky broader crypto market, appreciating some 50% since then, per CoinGecko data.
BlackRock’s BUIDL also enjoyed rapid growth earlier this year, driven by DeFi platform Ondo Finance making the token the key reserve asset of its own yield-earning product, the Ondo Short-Term US Government Treasuries (OUSG) token.
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Markets
Chainlink price double bottoms as whales accumulate
Published
24 hours agoon
December 22, 2024By
adminChainlink formed a double-bottom pattern, pointing to a potential rebound, as signs showed that some whales were accumulating the token.
Chainlink (LINK), the biggest oracle provider, bottomed at $20.12 on Friday and rebounded to $22.50 on Sunday, Dec. 22. Still, the coin remains about 27% from its highest point this month, meaning that it is in a bear market.
A potential catalyst for the LINK token is that whales are accumulating it. According to LookOnChain, nine new wallets withdrew 362,380 coins from Binance in the last two days. These coins are now valued at over $8.19 million.
Crypto.news reported last week that another whale accumulated 65,000 LINK coins valued at $1.8 million.
These whales bought Chainlink a week after World Liberty Financial (WLFI), the DeFi platform launched by the Trump family, bought over 78,300 LINK tokens valued at over $1.7 million. It’s worth noting that President-elect Trump and his family mostly own WLFI tokens.
Chainlink, known in the crypto industry for its fundamentals, is the biggest oracle in the sector with over $35 billion in total value secured. That figure is higher than its biggest competitors like Chronicle, Pyth, Edge, and Redstone.
Chainlink’s ecosystem will likely grow as more chains and networks embrace its technology. Justin Sun’s Tron, the most recent chain to use its oracles, has switched from WINKLink to Chainlink.
Chainlink has also formed major partnerships in the Real World Asset tokenization industry, including by companies like Coinbase, Emirates NBD, SWIFT, and UBS.
Chainlink price formed a double-bottom pattern
LINK, like other cryptocurrencies, has dropped sharply in the past few days as concerns about the Federal Reserve remained.
The token has remained above the 50-day moving average on the daily chart. Most importantly, it has formed a double-bottom chart pattern at $20.12. This pattern happens when an asset fails to move below a specific price two times. It is one of the most bullish reversal patterns in the market.
LINK has also formed an inverse hammer pattern, a popular reversal sign. Therefore, the coin is likely to bounce back in the next few days as investors target the key psychological at $30, which is about 35% above the current level.
On the flip side, the bullish view will become invalid if the coin drops below the double-bottom point at $20.12.
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