With Bitcoin now making six-figure territory feel normal and higher prices a seeming inevitability, the analysis of key on-chain data provides valuable insights into the underlying health of the market. By understanding these metrics, investors can better anticipate price movements and prepare for potential market peaks or even any upcoming retracements.

Terminal Price

The Terminal Price metric, which incorporates the Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) while factoring in Bitcoin’s supply, has historically been a reliable indicator for predicting Bitcoin cycle peaks. Coin Days Destroyed measures the velocity of coins being transferred, considering both the holding duration and the quantity of Bitcoin moved.

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Currently, the terminal price has surpassed $185,000 and is likely to rise toward $200,000 as the cycle progresses. With Bitcoin already breaking $100,000, this suggests we may still have several months of positive price action ahead.

Puell Multiple

The Puell Multiple evaluates daily miner revenue (in USD) relative to its 365-day moving average. After the halving event, miners experienced a sharp drop in revenue, creating a period of consolidation.

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Now, the Puell Multiple has climbed back above 1, signaling a return to profitability for miners. Historically, surpassing this threshold has indicated the later stages of a bull cycle, often marked by exponential price rallies. A similar pattern was observed during all previous bull runs.

MVRV Z-Score

The MVRV Z-Score measures the market value relative to the realized value (average cost basis of Bitcoin holders). Standardized into a Z-Score to account for the asset’s volatility, it’s been highly accurate in identifying cycle peaks and bottoms.

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Currently, Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score remains below the overheated red zone with a value of around 3.00, signaling that there’s still room for growth. While diminishing peaks have been a trend in recent cycles, the Z-Score suggests that the market is far from reaching a euphoric top.

Active Address Sentiment

This metric tracks the 28-day percentage change in active network addresses alongside the price change over the same period. When price growth outpaces network activity, it suggests the market may be short-term overbought, as the positive price action may not be sustainable given network utilization.

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Recent data shows a slight cooling after Bitcoin’s rapid climb from $50,000 to $100,000, indicating a healthy consolidation period. This pause is likely setting the stage for sustained long-term growth and does not indicate we should be medium to long-term bearish.

Spent Output Profit Ratio

The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) measures realized profits from Bitcoin transactions. Recent data shows an uptick in profit-taking, potentially indicating we are entering the latter stages of the cycle.

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One caveat to consider is the growing use of Bitcoin ETFs and derivative products. Investors may be shifting from self-custody to ETFs for ease of use and tax advantages, which could influence SOPR values.

Value Days Destroyed

Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple expands on CDD by weighting larger, long-term holders. When this metric enters the overheated red zone, it often signals major price peaks as the market’s largest and most experienced participants begin cashing out.

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While Bitcoin’s current VDD levels indicate a slightly overheated market, history suggests it could sustain this range for months before a peak. For example, in 2017, VDD indicated overbought conditions nearly a year before the cycle’s top.

Conclusion

Taken together, these metrics suggest that Bitcoin is entering the latter stages of its bull market. While some indicators point to short-term cooling or slight overextension, most highlight substantial remaining upside throughout 2025. Key resistance levels for this cycle may emerge between $150,000 and $200,000, with metrics like SOPR and VDD providing clearer signals as we approach the peak.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here: What’s Happening On-chain: Bitcoin Update

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

With Bitcoin now making six-figure territory feel normal and higher prices a seeming inevitability, the analysis of key on-chain data provides valuable insights into the underlying health of the market. By understanding these metrics, investors can better anticipate price movements and prepare for potential market peaks or even any upcoming retracements.

Terminal Price

The Terminal Price metric, which incorporates the Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) while factoring in Bitcoin’s supply, has historically been a reliable indicator for predicting Bitcoin cycle peaks. Coin Days Destroyed measures the velocity of coins being transferred, considering both the holding duration and the quantity of Bitcoin moved.

View Live Chart 🔍

Currently, the terminal price has surpassed $185,000 and is likely to rise toward $200,000 as the cycle progresses. With Bitcoin already breaking $100,000, this suggests we may still have several months of positive price action ahead.

Puell Multiple

The Puell Multiple evaluates daily miner revenue (in USD) relative to its 365-day moving average. After the halving event, miners experienced a sharp drop in revenue, creating a period of consolidation.

View Live Chart 🔍

Now, the Puell Multiple has climbed back above 1, signaling a return to profitability for miners. Historically, surpassing this threshold has indicated the later stages of a bull cycle, often marked by exponential price rallies. A similar pattern was observed during all previous bull runs.

MVRV Z-Score

The MVRV Z-Score measures the market value relative to the realized value (average cost basis of Bitcoin holders). Standardized into a Z-Score to account for the asset’s volatility, it’s been highly accurate in identifying cycle peaks and bottoms.

View Live Chart 🔍

Currently, Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score remains below the overheated red zone with a value of around 3.00, signaling that there’s still room for growth. While diminishing peaks have been a trend in recent cycles, the Z-Score suggests that the market is far from reaching a euphoric top.

Active Address Sentiment

This metric tracks the 28-day percentage change in active network addresses alongside the price change over the same period. When price growth outpaces network activity, it suggests the market may be short-term overbought, as the positive price action may not be sustainable given network utilization.

View Live Chart 🔍

Recent data shows a slight cooling after Bitcoin’s rapid climb from $50,000 to $100,000, indicating a healthy consolidation period. This pause is likely setting the stage for sustained long-term growth and does not indicate we should be medium to long-term bearish.

Spent Output Profit Ratio

The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) measures realized profits from Bitcoin transactions. Recent data shows an uptick in profit-taking, potentially indicating we are entering the latter stages of the cycle.

View Live Chart 🔍

One caveat to consider is the growing use of Bitcoin ETFs and derivative products. Investors may be shifting from self-custody to ETFs for ease of use and tax advantages, which could influence SOPR values.

Value Days Destroyed

Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple expands on CDD by weighting larger, long-term holders. When this metric enters the overheated red zone, it often signals major price peaks as the market’s largest and most experienced participants begin cashing out.

View Live Chart 🔍

While Bitcoin’s current VDD levels indicate a slightly overheated market, history suggests it could sustain this range for months before a peak. For example, in 2017, VDD indicated overbought conditions nearly a year before the cycle’s top.

Conclusion

Taken together, these metrics suggest that Bitcoin is entering the latter stages of its bull market. While some indicators point to short-term cooling or slight overextension, most highlight substantial remaining upside throughout 2025. Key resistance levels for this cycle may emerge between $150,000 and $200,000, with metrics like SOPR and VDD providing clearer signals as we approach the peak.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here: What’s Happening On-chain: Bitcoin Update

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

In the world of Bitcoin investing, understanding market cycles is key to identifying buying opportunities and spotting potential price peaks. One indicator that has stood the test of time in this regard is the Puell Multiple. Originally created by David Puell, this metric examines Bitcoin’s valuation through the lens of miner revenue, offering insights into whether Bitcoin might be undervalued or overvalued compared to its historical norms.

This article will explain what the Puell Multiple is, how to interpret it, and what the current reading on the chart suggests for investors. For a real-time look at this tool, check out the Puell Multiple chart on Bitcoin Magazine Pro.

What is the Puell Multiple?

The Puell Multiple is an indicator that compares Bitcoin miners’ daily revenue to its long-term average. Miners, as the “supply side” of Bitcoin’s economy, must sell portions of their BTC rewards to cover operational costs like energy and hardware. This makes miner revenue a critical factor influencing Bitcoin’s price dynamics.

How is the Puell Multiple Calculated?

The formula is simple:

Puell Multiple = Daily Issuance Value of BTC (in USD) ÷ 365-Day Moving Average of Daily Issuance Value

By comparing current miner revenues to their yearly average, the Puell Multiple identifies periods where miner profits are unusually high or low, signaling potential market tops or bottoms.

How to Read the Puell Multiple Chart

The Puell Multiple chart uses color zones to make interpretation straightforward:

1. Red Zone (Overvaluation)
   • When the Puell Multiple enters the red zone (above 3.4), it suggests miner revenues are significantly higher than usual.
   • Historically, this has coincided with Bitcoin price peaks, indicating potential overvaluation.
2. Green Zone (Undervaluation)
   • When the Puell Multiple drops into the green zone (below 0.5), it signals that miner revenues are unusually low.
   • These periods have historically aligned with Bitcoin market bottoms, offering prime buying opportunities.
3. Neutral Zone
   • When the Puell Multiple hovers between these levels, Bitcoin’s price is typically in a steady range relative to historical norms.

Current Insights: What is the Puell Multiple Telling Us?

Looking at the current Puell Multiple chart from Bitcoin Magazine Pro:

• The Puell Multiple (orange line) is trending upward but remains well below the red overvaluation zone.
• This suggests that Bitcoin is not yet in an overheated phase, where prices historically peak.
• At the same time, the metric is far above the green undervaluation zone, signaling we are no longer in a market bottom phase.

What Does This Mean for Investors?

The current Puell Multiple reading points to Bitcoin being in a mid-market cycle:

• Bullish Momentum: With the metric rising steadily, the market appears to be moving into a bullish phase, though it remains far from “overheated.”
• No Immediate Peak: The lack of a red zone reading suggests there may still be room for upside growth before a major correction.

Investors should monitor this chart closely in the coming months, particularly as Bitcoin approaches its next halving event in 2028, which could further influence miner revenues.

Why the Puell Multiple Matters for Bitcoin Investors

The Puell Multiple offers a unique perspective on Bitcoin’s market cycles by focusing on the supply side (miner revenue), rather than just demand. For long-term investors, this tool can be valuable for:

• Identifying Buying Opportunities: The green zone highlights periods of undervaluation.
• Spotting Market Peaks: The red zone has historically aligned with major price tops.
• Navigating Market Cycles: Combining the Puell Multiple with other indicators can help investors time their entries and exits more strategically.

Stay Ahead of the Market with Bitcoin Magazine Pro

For professional investors and Bitcoin enthusiasts looking to deepen their analysis, tools like the Puell Multiple chart on Bitcoin Magazine Pro provide essential insights into Bitcoin’s valuation trends.

By understanding the Puell Multiple and its historical significance, you can make informed decisions and better navigate Bitcoin’s unique market cycles.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.