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The Memecoin Supercycle Thesis Is Bitcoin Aligned

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Murad Mahmudov is back igniting our X timelines, but you may have noticed these days the “former” Bitcoin maximalist isn’t posting much about Bitcoin.

For the uninitiated, Murad is a Bitcoin maximalist, albeit one who has run the ire of the culture for taboo ideas: see his 2021-2022 embrace of wrapped Bitcoin assets on other blockchains, and most recently, his incessant writing about a “memecoin supercycle.”

It’s a far cry from his posts circa 2018, when could be seen on “The Pomp Podcast,” saying things like “Bitcoin is the soundest hardest currency that has ever been invented in history.”

So, how did he get from that admission to advocating for a portfolio of PEPE and GIGA, his most recent mantra that you should “invest in cults?”

Well, it starts with the post above, one of a few that’s got me thinking Murad is on to something.

To be clear, what we’re talking about here is a complete disregard for the idea that a belief in Bitcoin as a currency requires one to have some kind of moral duty. While this has been made fashionable of late, advocated by the likes of Michael Saylor and Jimmy Song, I’ve never seen a compelling argument that Bitcoin maximalism requires you to forsake financial speculation.

It’s quite simply a moral choice, extrinsic to the technology, and one everyone is free to make for themselves. Yes, it’s bad to scam people. No, no one can stop you but you. 

To this effect, Murad appears to be signaling that in this next cycle he intends to profit from the general collapse in confidence ongoing in altcoin land, and is merely going against the grain.

Putting aside the moral issue, there’s a lot to like about Murad’s thesis. I’d go so far as to argue, most Bitcoin maximalists would agree with most of it. 

Essentially, he’s betting on two concurrent trends that really cut to the heart of the movement:

  1. Bitcoin is really on its way to becoming the world’s dominant asset. It’s completely mispriced in the present, and will one day be the only remaining crypto asset and the money of the world.
  2. The crypto VC apparatus is collapsing slowly. Despite their years of claimed tech advances, there is little to show for the engineering. All altcoins will fail to compete with Bitcoin, and we’re beginning to see this because retail investors are only buying random memecoins.

All this is to say, is it really so hard to believe that in between these two truths will lie a messy period of complete crypto degeneracy?

IMO, you don’t need to speculate on this to think it’s hilarious. 

Expect Murad to become more relevant as this thesis plays out.





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HBO's Satoshi Documentary 'Money Electric' Is An Insult to Bitcoin

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CAUTION: SPOILERS AHEAD.

Some say we live in the golden age of documentaries – certainly they are being created at a volume far higher than at any point in history, but for every “My Octopus Teacher,” a genuinely inspiring and unusual human story, there’s the opposite: cynical trash like “Money Electric.”

Let’s start by acknowledging that “Money Electric” upped its own stakes, mounting a week-long hype cycle with the promise of a big reveal – that the world would at last know the identity of Bitcoin’s anonymous creator Satoshi Nakamoto.

Maybe let’s also put aside the historical baggage there. Sure, many journalists have died on this hill, but surely “Money Electric” might have something to add to the conversation? After all, from the trailer, they seemingly spent millions of dollars paying for Samson Mow’s dinners as he evangelized Bitcoin around the world. (It’s always great to subsidize education!)

There were even hints that maybe there would be something inspired here, a still shot showing a progression of cypherpunks, all of whom have interesting stories. Maybe the “big reveal” was just a ruse to keep our attention, and maybe there’d be a series of reveals (none taken too seriously) that added up to a compelling story about what Bitcoin is and could be.

Sadly, not. For most of its runtime, “Money Electric” hides its motives, following its star (director Cullen Hoback) as he dives into the Bitcoin world. But it’s clear as the film unfolds that the creators had no other motive than outing someone as Satoshi.

How else does a big budget film end up indulging in straight conspiracy theory, dredging up the alternative history of the “Block Size Wars” as a way to introduce accusations that are almost entirely uninteresting? 

Hint: The impetus for the big reveal here is that Peter Todd may have worked with a covert government agent to promote his ideas for the Bitcoin roadmap.

It’s here where things go off the rails (or start going to the master plan). After making us suffer his own misdirection, Hoback and Co. finally play their cards, unearthing a series of purported evidences that show Adam Back and Peter Todd (as well as Greg Maxwell for some reason) were all secretly Satoshi. 

Truly, the most banal and oft-repeated of theories.

From there, we see a series of “gotchas” that would have all been easily disproved if the directors did basic follow-up research.

Let’s review:

  1. Peter Todd and Adam Back corresponded on the cryptography mailing list when he was young. This is true, and widely known. It’s something Peter and Adam comment on publicly and doesn’t really say much of anything, besides the fact that the cryptography list was open to the public, and included possibly hundreds of members.
  2. Peter Todd’s first BitcoinTalk post occurred around the time Satoshi left – Again, another known. In fact, the post is written in Todd’s snarky style, but we’re supposed to believe this was him misremembering that he was actually Satoshi and responding to himself. (Or so the director thinks). Nevermind that his forum name at the time was “retep,” and being that no one knew who he was, he could have easily deleted it.
  3. Peter Todd once made a joke about deleting Bitcoin. This is used to support the idea that he burned Satoshi’s keys. 
  4. Adam Back discussed Bitcoin on the cryptography mailing list after Bitcoin was launched – Giving credit where credit is due, this is also something I didn’t actually know. But again, once looking at the archive we can see the material supports Back’s claim he wasn’t yet interested in Bitcoin. In the emails, Back is passively reacting to the hype around Bitcoin (then surging above $30), and there’s even a reply where he makes a complaint about why Satoshi (whose name he misspelled) didn’t add some feature he thought would be beneficial. Again, 5 minutes of Googling.
  5. Todd and Back were in cahoots, involved in a cover-up to mask the fact that they created Bitcoin. Ta-da. That’s why he never joined Blockstream! (Seriously this is stated, actually, by the director in the film.)

Taking a step back, it’s hard to know what to say about this sequence except that it’s both a marvel of creativity and cynicism, and in saying this, know that’s in no way a compliment.

To start, Hoback makes no legitimate attempt to engage Back or Todd on his finding. He merely presents the material as he found it, films them reacting, and closes up shop. It makes sense, even someone like me will admit there’s a non-zero chance Back or Todd was Satoshi. There aren’t many people you can’t rule out entirely, and they are among them.

Sadly, a non-zero chance is not a smoking gun. It’s not proof.

Todd and Back’s internet presence, while scrubbed from the web, is accessible. I’ve read it. No, they weren’t the only ones involved in digital cash who erased things. 

Of course, with the Magic of editing, and by exposing the “findings” to no criticism, I’m sure many viewers will walk away thinking they’ve been shown a clever and well-researched theory.

All Hoback proved to me is that he understands the shortcuts you can take when making a documentary. It alone among creative works allows you to hide all your errors behind editing, while making baseless and dangerous accusations seem plausible.

And to be clear, claiming that someone is Satoshi without evidence is exactly that.

Let’s hope no one gets hurt because of his idiocy.

Note: I interviewed a producer for “Electric Money” at one point in 2021. It was not recorded. I had no subsequent contact with the documentary team.



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Asian Bitcoiners Are Profit Maximalists

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WHAT WE’RE READING: Blockspace Media

A recent Blockspace article deeply resonated with me as someone who’s lived in Asia and the West. It examined how Asia-based Bitcoiners are mostly profit maximalists, not philosophically driven Bitcoin maxis.

This rang true from my experience. When I meet Asian Bitcoiners, money and profit seem to be the primary motivators. Contrast that to Westerners, who often cite the cypherpunk, privacy, and political ideals behind Bitcoin.

Of course, this is a broad generalization. Many exceptions exist across both continents, but the general lens is that each side’s views on Bitcoin differ substantially.

Cultural and economic differences likely drive this divide. Western Bitcoiners are often born into prosperity with strong infrastructure. Money itself doesn’t captivate them, as it’s abundantly available. Thus, they have the luxury of prioritizing loftier Bitcoin goals like privacy, censorship resistance, and decentralization.

Meanwhile, many Asian Bitcoiners grew up poor, struggling for money amidst crumbling infrastructure. When they discover Bitcoin, it understandably represents financial opportunity above all else. After lacking money their whole lives, profits take precedence over philosophical concerns.

A prime example is the common maxi argument against altcoins – that they lose value against Bitcoin over time. This philosophical stance falls flat in Asia where people judge investments based on empirical results measured in fiat gains. If an altcoin generates a 20x fiat return, Asians won’t care that it dropped 98% against Bitcoin. Their profit-centric framework renders certain Western philosophical arguments ineffective.

You can see the results where Bitcoin maximalism thrives – predominantly in the West. Asia has practically no maxis comparatively. Again, incentives align. When your sole goal is profit maximization, altcoins and tokens become fair game.

That’s why we are seeing more Bitcoin season 2 projects emerging from Asia, which will continue to be the case.

This isn’t to say one mindset is superior. Both are integral to Bitcoin’s success. Asian business drive adoption at all costs, and provide the capitalist engine. Western idealism keeps the protocol ethos on track. Together they produce the checks and balances Bitcoin needs to thrive.

Observing Asia’s profit-first mentality versus the West’s ideological leanings provides insight into Bitcoin’s cultural landscape. Neither outlook is right or wrong per se. By understanding both mentalities, Bitcoin can synthesize the best of both worlds.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.



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Reminder to Update Your Bitcoin Wallet's Firmware

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The smell of fall in the air, this weekend I indulged in apple delicacies, watched the changing leaves, and oh yeah, traveled to make sure my Bitcoin custody is up to date…

If you follow me on X, you know that I hold Bitcoin with Casa, a multisig security provider, and that I use the service to manage a few different multisig vaults for various purposes.

This requires keeping a number of keys and wallets up to date, and since I don’t keep any key materials at home, it requires some degree of routine and dedication. 

I’ve self-custodied my Bitcoin since 2020, and I’ve built up some good habits along the way. That said, something that always strikes me is just how much more nerve-wracking it is than trusted set-ups.

One thing that always gives me pause: the firmware update.

As I’ve written before, I’m not super technical. My specialty in Bitcoin is history, and while, sure that necessitates that I know about network theory and architecture, there is something about watching digital gears and a loading bar that just makes me super uncomfortable.

I say this all because it’s a less-known issue with the Bitcoin hardware wallets most use to self-custody. These devices, termed “signing devices” by Coldcard creator NVK, do just that, they manage your key material, and they sign on your behalf when making a transaction.

But, being live digital devices, they’re not infallible. They require some upkeep. All you need to do is to scroll past a few updates of people losing Bitcoin on firmware updates to know the drawbacks

It’s a common problem, and the culprit is always a corrupt hardware device (and a lost back-up). Add that multisig vaults, which require a combination of keys to sign a transaction, aren’t yet the norm, and the number of lost Bitcoin just seems to always be up and to the right.

The most common issue – the user doesn’t update their firmware often, waits, and later borks their device, thereafter finding they’ve also misplaced their seed phrase. 

Here’s Andreas explaining firmware updates in more detail, though he doesn’t actually update his firmware, he just manages his seed phrase.

Suffice to say, it’s an example of why the world of self-custody, however improved it is, still makes me uneasy. In my case, I updated my wallets without much of an issue. Only one of the wallets even needed a firmware update, and it was simple. (Taking all of a few minutes to prove my coins are safe).

That said, I had to make sure to check my other keys beforehand, and that I had a plurality of the multi-sig keys needed in a worst-case scenario, as well as my seed backups.

This is what makes Bitcoin custody such a high-octane process: you can never be too careful. When you’re your own bank, there’s always a chance that something might go wrong.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.



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