Bitcoin Magazine Pro
The Positive End To 2024 For Bitcoin
Published
3 months agoon
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adminAs 2024 comes to a close, Bitcoin investors are eagerly eyeing the final quarter of the year, traditionally known for positive price action. With many speculating that a bullish rally may be on the horizon, let’s break down the historical data, analyze trends, and weigh the possibilities of what BTC’s price action might look like by the end of this year.
Historical Performance of Bitcoin in Q4
Looking at the past decade on the Monthly Returns Heatmap, Q4 has frequently delivered impressive gains for Bitcoin. Data shows that BTC often finishes the year strong, as evidenced by three consecutive green months in 2023. Not every year follows this trend however, 2021 and 2022 were less favorable, with Bitcoin ending the year on a more bearish note. Yet, years like 2020 and 2015 through to 2017 saw tremendous price surges, highlighting the potential for a bullish finish in Q4.
Analyzing Potential Q4 2024 Outcomes Based on Historical Data
To better understand potential outcomes for Q4 2024, we can compare previous Q4 performances with the current price action. This can give us an idea of how Bitcoin might behave if historical patterns continue. The range of potential outcomes is broad, from significant gains to minor losses, or even sideways price movement. The projection lines are rainbow color coded going from 2023 in red back to 2015 in a light violet shade.
For example, in 2017 (purple line), Bitcoin experienced a significant increase, suggesting that in an optimistic scenario, Bitcoin could reach prices as high as $240,000 by the end of 2024.
However, more conservative estimates are also possible. In a more moderate Q4, Bitcoin could range between $93,000 and $110,000, while in a bearish scenario, prices could drop as low as $34,000, as seen in 2018 (blue line).
The median outcome based on this data seems to be around the $85,000 price point. Although this is based on the year end price from these projections, years such as 2021 (yellow line) resulted in considerably higher price before notable pullbacks to end the year.
Is The Median Outcome A Possibility?
Whilst an $85,000 in around three months time may seem optimistic, we only have to look back to February of this year to see a single month in which BTC experienced a 43.63% increase. We can also look to metrics such as The Golden Ratio Multiplier which are showing confluence around this level as a potential target with its 1.6x Accumulation High level.
Is $240,000 Even Possible?
Whether Bitcoin can achieve such high values will depend on various factors. An increase in demand coupled with limited supply could propel Bitcoin to new all-time highs. Furthermore, developments such as Bitcoin ETFs, institutional investments, or major geopolitical events could further boost demand. We’re also seeing a similar pattern in this cycle as we have seen in the previous two, with a first wave of large scale market inflows before a cool-off period; potentially setting up a second rally in the near future.
This is probably over-ambitious, Bitcoin’s market cap has grown tremendously since 2017 and we’d require tens of billions of money pouring into the market. But Bitcoin is Bitcoin, and nothing is out of the question in this space!
Conclusion
Ultimately, while historical data suggests optimism for Q4, predicting Bitcoin’s future is always speculative. A third of all of these projections resulted in sideways price action, with one forecasting a large scale decline. As always, it’s important for investors to remain unbiased and react to, rather than predict Bitcoin data and price action.
For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out our recent YouTube video here:
Bitcoin Q4 – A Positive End To 2024?
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Bitcoin Magazine Pro
Exploring Six On-Chain Indicators to Understand the Bitcoin Market Cycle
Published
2 days agoon
December 21, 2024By
adminWith Bitcoin now making six-figure territory feel normal and higher prices a seeming inevitability, the analysis of key on-chain data provides valuable insights into the underlying health of the market. By understanding these metrics, investors can better anticipate price movements and prepare for potential market peaks or even any upcoming retracements.
Terminal Price
The Terminal Price metric, which incorporates the Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) while factoring in Bitcoin’s supply, has historically been a reliable indicator for predicting Bitcoin cycle peaks. Coin Days Destroyed measures the velocity of coins being transferred, considering both the holding duration and the quantity of Bitcoin moved.
Currently, the terminal price has surpassed $185,000 and is likely to rise toward $200,000 as the cycle progresses. With Bitcoin already breaking $100,000, this suggests we may still have several months of positive price action ahead.
Puell Multiple
The Puell Multiple evaluates daily miner revenue (in USD) relative to its 365-day moving average. After the halving event, miners experienced a sharp drop in revenue, creating a period of consolidation.
Now, the Puell Multiple has climbed back above 1, signaling a return to profitability for miners. Historically, surpassing this threshold has indicated the later stages of a bull cycle, often marked by exponential price rallies. A similar pattern was observed during all previous bull runs.
MVRV Z-Score
The MVRV Z-Score measures the market value relative to the realized value (average cost basis of Bitcoin holders). Standardized into a Z-Score to account for the asset’s volatility, it’s been highly accurate in identifying cycle peaks and bottoms.
Currently, Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score remains below the overheated red zone with a value of around 3.00, signaling that there’s still room for growth. While diminishing peaks have been a trend in recent cycles, the Z-Score suggests that the market is far from reaching a euphoric top.
Active Address Sentiment
This metric tracks the 28-day percentage change in active network addresses alongside the price change over the same period. When price growth outpaces network activity, it suggests the market may be short-term overbought, as the positive price action may not be sustainable given network utilization.
Recent data shows a slight cooling after Bitcoin’s rapid climb from $50,000 to $100,000, indicating a healthy consolidation period. This pause is likely setting the stage for sustained long-term growth and does not indicate we should be medium to long-term bearish.
Spent Output Profit Ratio
The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) measures realized profits from Bitcoin transactions. Recent data shows an uptick in profit-taking, potentially indicating we are entering the latter stages of the cycle.
One caveat to consider is the growing use of Bitcoin ETFs and derivative products. Investors may be shifting from self-custody to ETFs for ease of use and tax advantages, which could influence SOPR values.
Value Days Destroyed
Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple expands on CDD by weighting larger, long-term holders. When this metric enters the overheated red zone, it often signals major price peaks as the market’s largest and most experienced participants begin cashing out.
While Bitcoin’s current VDD levels indicate a slightly overheated market, history suggests it could sustain this range for months before a peak. For example, in 2017, VDD indicated overbought conditions nearly a year before the cycle’s top.
Conclusion
Taken together, these metrics suggest that Bitcoin is entering the latter stages of its bull market. While some indicators point to short-term cooling or slight overextension, most highlight substantial remaining upside throughout 2025. Key resistance levels for this cycle may emerge between $150,000 and $200,000, with metrics like SOPR and VDD providing clearer signals as we approach the peak.
For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here: What’s Happening On-chain: Bitcoin Update
Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.
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Bitcoin Magazine Pro
Exploring Five On-Chain Indicators to Understand the Bitcoin Market Cycle
Published
3 days agoon
December 20, 2024By
adminWith Bitcoin now making six-figure territory feel normal and higher prices a seeming inevitability, the analysis of key on-chain data provides valuable insights into the underlying health of the market. By understanding these metrics, investors can better anticipate price movements and prepare for potential market peaks or even any upcoming retracements.
Terminal Price
The Terminal Price metric, which incorporates the Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) while factoring in Bitcoin’s supply, has historically been a reliable indicator for predicting Bitcoin cycle peaks. Coin Days Destroyed measures the velocity of coins being transferred, considering both the holding duration and the quantity of Bitcoin moved.
Currently, the terminal price has surpassed $185,000 and is likely to rise toward $200,000 as the cycle progresses. With Bitcoin already breaking $100,000, this suggests we may still have several months of positive price action ahead.
Puell Multiple
The Puell Multiple evaluates daily miner revenue (in USD) relative to its 365-day moving average. After the halving event, miners experienced a sharp drop in revenue, creating a period of consolidation.
Now, the Puell Multiple has climbed back above 1, signaling a return to profitability for miners. Historically, surpassing this threshold has indicated the later stages of a bull cycle, often marked by exponential price rallies. A similar pattern was observed during all previous bull runs.
MVRV Z-Score
The MVRV Z-Score measures the market value relative to the realized value (average cost basis of Bitcoin holders). Standardized into a Z-Score to account for the asset’s volatility, it’s been highly accurate in identifying cycle peaks and bottoms.
Currently, Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score remains below the overheated red zone with a value of around 3.00, signaling that there’s still room for growth. While diminishing peaks have been a trend in recent cycles, the Z-Score suggests that the market is far from reaching a euphoric top.
Active Address Sentiment
This metric tracks the 28-day percentage change in active network addresses alongside the price change over the same period. When price growth outpaces network activity, it suggests the market may be short-term overbought, as the positive price action may not be sustainable given network utilization.
Recent data shows a slight cooling after Bitcoin’s rapid climb from $50,000 to $100,000, indicating a healthy consolidation period. This pause is likely setting the stage for sustained long-term growth and does not indicate we should be medium to long-term bearish.
Spent Output Profit Ratio
The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) measures realized profits from Bitcoin transactions. Recent data shows an uptick in profit-taking, potentially indicating we are entering the latter stages of the cycle.
One caveat to consider is the growing use of Bitcoin ETFs and derivative products. Investors may be shifting from self-custody to ETFs for ease of use and tax advantages, which could influence SOPR values.
Value Days Destroyed
Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple expands on CDD by weighting larger, long-term holders. When this metric enters the overheated red zone, it often signals major price peaks as the market’s largest and most experienced participants begin cashing out.
While Bitcoin’s current VDD levels indicate a slightly overheated market, history suggests it could sustain this range for months before a peak. For example, in 2017, VDD indicated overbought conditions nearly a year before the cycle’s top.
Conclusion
Taken together, these metrics suggest that Bitcoin is entering the latter stages of its bull market. While some indicators point to short-term cooling or slight overextension, most highlight substantial remaining upside throughout 2025. Key resistance levels for this cycle may emerge between $150,000 and $200,000, with metrics like SOPR and VDD providing clearer signals as we approach the peak.
For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here: What’s Happening On-chain: Bitcoin Update
Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.
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Bitcoin Magazine Pro
What is the Bitcoin Puell Multiple Indicator and How Does It Work?
Published
5 days agoon
December 18, 2024By
adminIn the world of Bitcoin investing, understanding market cycles is key to identifying buying opportunities and spotting potential price peaks. One indicator that has stood the test of time in this regard is the Puell Multiple. Originally created by David Puell, this metric examines Bitcoin’s valuation through the lens of miner revenue, offering insights into whether Bitcoin might be undervalued or overvalued compared to its historical norms.
This article will explain what the Puell Multiple is, how to interpret it, and what the current reading on the chart suggests for investors. For a real-time look at this tool, check out the Puell Multiple chart on Bitcoin Magazine Pro.
What is the Puell Multiple?
The Puell Multiple is an indicator that compares Bitcoin miners’ daily revenue to its long-term average. Miners, as the “supply side” of Bitcoin’s economy, must sell portions of their BTC rewards to cover operational costs like energy and hardware. This makes miner revenue a critical factor influencing Bitcoin’s price dynamics.
How is the Puell Multiple Calculated?
The formula is simple:
Puell Multiple = Daily Issuance Value of BTC (in USD) ÷ 365-Day Moving Average of Daily Issuance Value
By comparing current miner revenues to their yearly average, the Puell Multiple identifies periods where miner profits are unusually high or low, signaling potential market tops or bottoms.
How to Read the Puell Multiple Chart
The Puell Multiple chart uses color zones to make interpretation straightforward:
- Red Zone (Overvaluation)
- When the Puell Multiple enters the red zone (above 3.4), it suggests miner revenues are significantly higher than usual.
- Historically, this has coincided with Bitcoin price peaks, indicating potential overvaluation.
- Green Zone (Undervaluation)
- When the Puell Multiple drops into the green zone (below 0.5), it signals that miner revenues are unusually low.
- These periods have historically aligned with Bitcoin market bottoms, offering prime buying opportunities.
- Neutral Zone
- When the Puell Multiple hovers between these levels, Bitcoin’s price is typically in a steady range relative to historical norms.
Current Insights: What is the Puell Multiple Telling Us?
Looking at the current Puell Multiple chart from Bitcoin Magazine Pro:
- The Puell Multiple (orange line) is trending upward but remains well below the red overvaluation zone.
- This suggests that Bitcoin is not yet in an overheated phase, where prices historically peak.
- At the same time, the metric is far above the green undervaluation zone, signaling we are no longer in a market bottom phase.
What Does This Mean for Investors?
The current Puell Multiple reading points to Bitcoin being in a mid-market cycle:
- Bullish Momentum: With the metric rising steadily, the market appears to be moving into a bullish phase, though it remains far from “overheated.”
- No Immediate Peak: The lack of a red zone reading suggests there may still be room for upside growth before a major correction.
Investors should monitor this chart closely in the coming months, particularly as Bitcoin approaches its next halving event in 2028, which could further influence miner revenues.
Why the Puell Multiple Matters for Bitcoin Investors
The Puell Multiple offers a unique perspective on Bitcoin’s market cycles by focusing on the supply side (miner revenue), rather than just demand. For long-term investors, this tool can be valuable for:
- Identifying Buying Opportunities: The green zone highlights periods of undervaluation.
- Spotting Market Peaks: The red zone has historically aligned with major price tops.
- Navigating Market Cycles: Combining the Puell Multiple with other indicators can help investors time their entries and exits more strategically.
Stay Ahead of the Market with Bitcoin Magazine Pro
For professional investors and Bitcoin enthusiasts looking to deepen their analysis, tools like the Puell Multiple chart on Bitcoin Magazine Pro provide essential insights into Bitcoin’s valuation trends.
By understanding the Puell Multiple and its historical significance, you can make informed decisions and better navigate Bitcoin’s unique market cycles.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.
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