TON

TON Price Plummets 18%, But Whales Buy $5M Tokens: Buy Now?

Published

3 months ago

August 1, 2024

TON price is currently hovering around $6.79 but could continue climbing before it faces a tough hurdle. On-chain metrics suggest that Toncoin investors are accumulating the altcoin despite the recent crash.

TON Price Likely to Bounce

TON price rallied 301% between February 23 and June 15, setting up an all-time high (ATH) of $8.28. Since then, the Toncoin price has produced a string of lower highs, suggesting a decline in bullish momentum. In the past two weeks, the altcoin breached the $7.01 and $7.25 support zone into a resistance zone and set up a lower low on the daily time frame. These developments suggest that a downtrend could be around the corner for Toncoin holders.

Going forward, investors can expect a minor bounce from the current level of $6,79 into the aforementioned resistance zone. This move could push TON price up by 5% to 8%. Rejection at the hands of this recently flipped hurdle could be a good place to short Toncoin.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has flipped the mean level 50, further confirming the bearish trend. The incoming bounce could push the RSI to retest the underside of the mean level, where it will likely face a reversal.

Depending on market conditions and selling pressure, TON could crash 13% to 17% to retest the next key support zone, extending from $5.90 to $6.23. If sidelined buyers do not show interest in accumulating TON at these levels, investors can expect a breakdown of this zone, knocking Toncoin price down to $5.17, the midpoint of the 300% rally noted in the first half of 2024.

TON/USDT 1-day chart

According to data from Santiment, whales holding between 10K to 100K and 100K to 1M TON have accumulated 670,000 tokens since June 15. Ideally, such a development is considered bullish and falls in line with the short-term bullish outlook noted from the technical standpoint, which forecasts that the TON price could rally 5% to 8%. However, investors should note that this metric should not be used as a standalone data point.

TON Price vs. Supply Distribution

A closer look shows that roughly 5.3 million TON tokens are held on centralized exchanges. This supply could be a potential selling pressure in dire market conditions. Investors could offload their tokens to prevent realizing massive losses. Hence, the long-term outlook of Toncoin price remains bearish.

TON price vs. Supply on Exchanges

All in all, the long-term outlook for TON price remains bearish, and investors need to be aware of the risks. However, if Toncoin bulls overcome the $7.01 and $7.25 resistance zone and flip it into a support floor, it would invalidate the bullish thesis.

Such a development could see TON price attempt a 13% rally to retest the ATH of $8.28$7.01 and $7.258.