Bitcoin Cash (BCH) added nearly 35% to its value in the past month and rallied 12% on Nov. 21. Bitcoin’s (BTC) observed a rally to $98,384 early on Nov. 21, with BCH and other top cryptocurrencies tagging along for the ride. 

An analysis of on-chain and technical indicators and data from the derivatives market shows that BCH could extend gains and retest its mid-April 2024 peak of $569.10. 

Bitcoin hits all-time high, fork from 2017 ignites hope for traders

Bitcoin hit a record high of $98,384 on Nov. 21, a key milestone as the cryptocurrency eyes a run to the $100,000 target. BTC was forked in 2017, creating a spin-off or alternative, Bitcoin Cash. 

BCH hit a peak of $1,650 in May 2021. Since April 2024, BCH has been consolidating with no clear trend formation. 

BCH price rallied nearly 30% since Nov. 15, on-chain indicators show that further rally is likely in the Bitcoin spin-off token. 

Bitcoin Cash’s active addresses have climbed consistently since August 2024. Santiment data shows an uptrend in active addresses, meaning BCH traders have sustained demand for the token, supporting a bullish thesis for the cryptocurrency. 

The ratio of daily on-chain transaction volume in profit to loss exceeds 2, is 2.141 on Thursday. BCH traded on-chain noted twice as many profitable transactions on the day, as the ones where losses were incurred. This is another key metric that paints a bullish picture for the token forked from Bitcoin. 

Binance funding rate is positive since Nov. 10. In the past eleven days, traders have been optimistic about gains in BCH price, according to Santiment data. 

The network realized profit/loss metric identifies the net gain or loss of all traders who traded the token within a 24 hour period. NPL metric for Bitcoin Cash shows traders have been taking profits on their holdings, small positive spikes on the daily price chart represent NPL. 

Investors need to keep their eyes peeled for significant movements in NPL, large positive spikes imply heavy profit-taking activities that could increase selling pressure across exchange platforms. 

84.48% of Bitcoin Cash’s supply is currently profitable, as of Nov. 21. This metric helps traders consider the likelihood of high profit-taking or exits from existing BCH holders, to time an entry/ exit in spot market trades. 

Derivatives traders are bullish on BCH

Derivatives market data from Coinglass shows a 33% increase in open interest in Bitcoin Cash. Open interest represents the total number of active contracts that haven’t been settled, representing demand for the BCH token among derivatives traders. 

Derivatives trade volume climbed 613% in the same timeframe, to $2.35 billion. Across exchanges, Binance and OKX, the long/short ratio is above 1, closer to 2, meaning traders remain bullish on BCH and expect prices to rally. 

BCH futures open interest chart shows a steady increase in the metric, alongside BCH price gain since November 5, 2024. Open interest climbed from $190.74 million to $254.87 million between November 5 and 21.  

Technical indicators show BCH could gain 18%

The BCH/USDT daily price chart on Tradingview.com shows that the token remains within the consolidation. The token is stuck within a range from $272.70 to $568.20. BCH could attempt to break past the upper boundary of the range, a daily candlestick close above $568.20 could confirm the bullish breakout. 

The April 2024 high of $719.50 is the next major resistance for BCH and the second key level is at $805.80, a key level from May 2021. 

The relative strength index reads 64, well below the “overvalued” zone above 70. RSI supports a bullish thesis for BCH. Another key momentum indicator, moving average convergence divergence flashes green histogram bars above the neutral line. This means BCH price trend has an underlying positive momentum. 

The awesome oscillator is in agreement with the findings of RSI and MACD, all three technical indicators point at likelihood of gains. 

A failure to close above the upper boundary of the range could invalidate the bullish thesis. BCH could find support at the midpoint of the range at $419.90 and the 50-day exponential moving average at $388.50. 

After seeing some selling pressure in the early trading hours on Monday following the Hindenburg report last weekend, the Indian market bounced back into the green zone. The report alleges a conflict of interest in the funds used by the Adani Group of companies and the SEBI chair Madhabi Puri Buch.

Hindenburg Report Fails to Impact Indian Market

Despite the early market selloff with the Nifty 50 Index falling over 300 points, it has entirely recovered over the last hour with the index trading 80 points in the green as of press time. Similarly, stocks of the Adani Group were trading 5.6% down on Monday, however, the shorts have recovered well with all the stocks trading in the green.

On the other hand, the Asian stock market is also showing strength with the former BOJ governor stating that the Japanese central bank won’t raise interest rates again this year. The focus now shifts to US CPI numbers for July to be revealed ahead this week as the market remains cautious about a US recession going ahead. Nomura Holdings Inc. said in a note:

“The skies are not fully clear yet, but there are several reasons that suggest to us that some relatively calmer seas are ahead of us”.

Similarly, the benchmarks in Australia and South Korea saw gains along with the revenue increase at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. boosting the Taipei Index. Similarly, the Hong Kong stocks remained mostly unchanged while the Japanese markets were closed for a holiday.

As a result, Indian investors also decided to look past the Hindenburg short-selling report.

Will the Crypto Market Recover?

The crypto market faced a major sell-off recently with the Bitcoin price crashing to $58,000 levels ahead of the much-awaited Donald Trump interview with Elon Musk.

Along with Bitcoin, altcoins have also been part of this crypto-market selloff falling more than 5-6% recently. However, all eyes are on the important macro events scheduled this week such as the US CPI data release for July, the NZ Fed taking its call on rate cuts, and much more. However, amid the recovery in Asian stocks, there’s enough probability that of short covering in the crypto market by the time the US markets open on Monday.

Bitcoin Investing Essentials, A Sneak Peek at This Week’s Big Events (8/12-8/18)

After a week of adjustment, the market has come out of the blow of the Bank of Japan’s interest rate hike. Recent dovish comments from the Bank of Japan have also given the market confidence, and…

— Greeks.live (@GreeksLive) August 12, 2024

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Bhushan Akolkar

Bhushan is a FinTech enthusiast and holds a good flair in understanding financial markets. His interest in economics and finance draw his attention towards the new emerging Blockchain Technology and Cryptocurrency markets. He is continuously in a learning process and keeps himself motivated by sharing his acquired knowledge. In free time he reads thriller fictions novels and sometimes explore his culinary skills.

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.