Markets

Trump Extends Lead Over Harris on Polymarket Despite Polls

Published

3 months ago

August 22, 2024

Crypto prediction market Polymarket has had quite the summer, raking in hundreds of millions of dollars worth of bets on questions related to the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Recent developments appear to test Polymarket’s accuracy compared to public opinion polls.

In the last few days on the site, former president Donald Trump has retaken top odds to win the White House in November, for the first time since shortly after Vice President Kamala Harris entered the race. He is currently favored at 53% compared to Harris’ 47%.

Trump overtook Harris on the site earlier this week, and the gap has gradually widened.

Traditional polling, however, maintains that Harris remains the healthy favorite in the race by an ever larger margin. The prominent pollster Nate Silver, for example—who joined Polymarket as an advisor last month—gave Harris a 53 percent chance of winning yesterday. Based on his in-depth analysis of available poll data, he said the VP retains the lead she’s held since the beginning of the month.

Advocates of prediction markets have argued that sites like Polymarket, which involve staking funds, may now offer better insights into key questions—like who is more likely to become America’s next president—than traditional methods like polling.

Few headlines appeared to shake up the presidential election this week in a way that could negatively impact Harris, however. In fact, the Democratic National Convention, currently underway in Chicago, has given her an additional infusion of positive media coverage.

So what could account for the gap between Polymarket’s current insights on the presidential election and Silver’s?

One potential explanation could be that Polymarket—which runs on blockchain—skews toward crypto users more than the general public. The intersection of crypto and politics, then, is more likely to move the needle.

While many in the industry appeared initially enthusiastic that Harris might offer a significant departure from President Joe Biden on crypto policy, sentiment shifted somewhat at the beginning of the week when the Democrats released a party platform that failed to mention crypto. Republicans had embraced crypto in their own platform earlier this summer, and some Democrats were hopeful their party would follow suit.

On Monday, frustration within the crypto industry at Harris was exemplified by the rapid spreading of a rumor that the Democratic nominee was actively considering nominating crypto villain and current U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Gary Gensler to be her Secretary of the Treasury, should she become president.

Although the report was widely discredited, it was within hours of this anti-Harris sentiment erupting on Crypto Twitter that Trump began his six-point surge on Polymarket—one that pushed him back to majority odds for the first time in weeks.

Of course, prediction market odds, just like polling data, are by no means definitive, and Harris and Trump may well switch off leading the race multiple times before November 5. However, as data on sites like Polymarket begins to diverge from those sourced from traditional prediction methods, the presidential election may become not just a political referendum but one on the superior method of predicting the future.

Start every day with the top news stories right now, plus original features, a podcast, videos and more.

Source link

Bitcoin Magazine Pro

Bitcoin Hash Ribbons Indicator: Miners Show Unwavering Optimism as Hash Rate Hits New Highs

Published

2 hours ago

November 12, 2024

admin

Bitcoin miners are sending a clear message: they’re more bullish than ever. As we observe new all-time highs in the Bitcoin network’s hash rate, the commitment of miners underscores their confidence in the asset’s long-term potential.

*Follow Bitcoin Magazine Pro on X.com for daily Bitcoin charts.*

The Hash Ribbons Indicator Explained

The Hash Ribbons indicator provides insight into miner activity and sentiment by analyzing the 30-day and 60-day moving averages of Bitcoin’s hash rate. When the 30-day moving average crosses above the 60-day, it suggests a positive shift, often interpreted as miner capitulation coming to an end. This shift typically signals that weaker miners have exited the market, leaving only resilient participants and setting the stage for potential price recovery.

Why All-Time Highs in Hash Rate Matter

As the Bitcoin network’s hash rate climbs to new peaks, it highlights the increasing amount of computational power devoted to securing the blockchain. This rise not only reflects strong miner confidence but also enhances the network’s resilience and security. In the current climate, these hash rate highs indicate that miners are holding their ground, undeterred by market fluctuations.

Interpreting the Current Hash Ribbon Signal

The chart above shows a recent bullish crossover in the Hash Ribbons, indicating the end of miner capitulation. Historically, these crossovers have often aligned with favorable price action in the weeks and months that follow. With hash rate reaching unprecedented levels, this crossover suggests that miners anticipate a period of sustained growth.

For an in-depth look at the Hash Ribbons Indicator and to stay updated with future movements, visit the source here: Bitcoin Magazine Pro.

Source link

Bitcoin

Ether (ETH) ETF Inflows Hit Record, Bitcoin ETF Inflows Soar as BTC Price Eyes $90K

Published

14 hours ago

November 12, 2024

admin

“Assets in the US spot bitcoin ETFs are now up to $84b, which is 2/3 of the way to what gold ETFs have, all the sudden there’s a decent shot they surpass gold before their first birthday (we predicted it would take 3-4yrs),” Eric Balchunas, a senior analyst at Bloomberg, said in a post on X.

Source link

all time high

Thank You Donald Trump for Bitcoin's All-Time High

Published

20 hours ago

November 12, 2024

admin

Just as I called it a few weeks ago, the election was too big to rig. I said the outcome of the election would dictate when we see a new Bitcoin all-time high. My argument was that if Trump won, we would see Bitcoin rise to a six figure price and if Kamala won, BTC would have dumped hard.

But thankfully, pro-Bitcoin Donald Trump swept the election, winning all swing states and the popular vote. His anti-Bitcoin opponent lost in dramatic fashion, and now it’s off to the races for Bitcoin’s price. Even CNBC is reporting on this as the “post-election rally.”

Trump’s proposed policies for Bitcoin has propelled bitcoin’s price upward — it’s now up over 22% since last week. If Trump had lost, the price of BTC would have most likely plummeted due to Harris’ unfavorable policy around Bitcoin and overall horrible policy around financial markets in general — like wanting to tax unrealized gains.

Now, we’re past that, though, and we have a President-elect that is going to champion Bitcoin innovation, support the industry and has pledged to work with congress and the senate to approve and establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. In addition to that, MicoStrategy is raising $42 billion to buy more bitcoin and Bitcoin ETFs are on an accumulation rampage (BlackRock’s ETF did $1 billion in volume in just 35 minutes this morning) — and it feels like no one is selling.

WE ARE GOING TO BUILD A STRATEGIC BITCOIN RESERVE 🇺🇸 🇺🇸 🇺🇸
— Senator Cynthia Lummis (@SenLummis) November 6, 2024

Oh, and on top of all that, Ross Ulbricht is going to be a free man on day one of Trump’s presidency. We are winning on every single front now.

So, thank you President Trump for saving us from the Democrats’ war on Bitcoin, from four more years of their continued attack on this industry and, of course, for bitcoin’s price making new all-time highs (we just hit $85,000! Let’s go!)

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

Source link