Hedge fund manager Hugh Hendry is betting on Bitcoin (BTC) and low interest rates next year.

Hendry says there “always two ever-present tail risks” in a short volatility investment strategy, which aims to profit off decreases in market volatility by selling options.

“Do you buy the call option that the Mag-7 become capitalized at 100% of GDP or that rates descend rapidly to the lower bound?

That’s why I keep hammering on about observing where stock levels are on the day of the next cut. I’m running a barbell: long BTC and long calls on <2% Fed Funds at year end 2025

I am of course exposed to a tracking error, that stocks surge and bitcoin is flat or down on some idiosyncratic news. I’m content to run that risk.”

Mag-7 refers to the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks: Alphabet (GOOGL; GOOG), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Meta Platforms (META), Microsoft (MSFT), NVIDIA (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA).

Hendry also compares Bitcoin’s size to the Invesco QQQ, an exchange-traded fund (ETF) based on the Nasdaq-100 Index.

“BTC is everyone’s phantom, good or bad. In reality, its MASS renders it irrelevant to this conversation but highly attractive for upside consideration. In the game of Newton’s Cradle, MASS is paramount today, it’s the outlier.

BTC’s capitalization is just $1 trillion. QQQ is $42 trillion. The Qs, or rather the $13 trillion in the Mag-7, are therefore the only consideration. Bank stock lending renders the robustness of that valuation paramount. If that melts, the credit unravels, the margin call is immense.

Perhaps doesn’t happen, but if I were a bank I’d be circumspect about the moneyness of that collateral. I’d be trying to contra-cyclically reduce my assets, markets and their liquidity permitting. By moneyness I mean the pledged assets’ proximity to a t-bill. Your t-bill ain’t gonna lose 83% of its value over the next 18 months.

Bur stocks capitalized at these vaunted levels vis-a-vis GDP have periodically suffered such reversals.”

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Earlier today, U.S. federal prosecutors charged crypto trading firms Gotbit, ZM Quant, CLS Global and MyTrade and their employees with market manipulation and fraud. Notably, a CoinDesk report in 2019 detailed how Alexey Andryunin, the co-founder of Gotbit and one of the individuals charged by prosecutors, built a business out of faking exchange volumes for tiny crypto tokens using trading bots to get listed on price aggregators like CoinMarketCap.

A recent leak from the HBO documentary Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery has ignited speculation around the identity of Bitcoin’s enigmatic creator, Satoshi Nakamoto. The clips that appeared on the social media platforms indicate that Peter Todd, a former Bitcoin Core developer, might be unmasked as the person behind the name.

Peter Todd Denies Claims of Satoshi Nakamoto

Peter Todd, a developer who has been involved in the development of the Bitcoin, has strongly claimed that he is not Nakamoto. Todd has been involved in the cryptocurrency industry since 2010 and has worked on the Bitcoin Core and has founded OpenTimestamps. 

The leak is based on the videos posted on X (previously Twitter) by @theblockcitizen where Todd is seen apparently speaking about his involvement in the initial phase of Bitcoin.

https://t.co/24SSWWHBom

As for what the drama is…

— Peter Todd (@peterktodd) October 8, 2024

In the documentary, Cullen Hoback reveals that Todd could be Bitcoin creator Nakamoto, based on the specific logs and posts from the Bitcoin forums. In a message obtained from Todd, Hoback said that Todd might have deleted the only way through which he could get to the 1.1 million Bitcoin, which he alleged belonged to Nakamoto. The Bitcoin developer, however, dismissed such allegations through a statement where he described the theory as absurd and accused Hoback of trying to seek an explanation wherever he could.

HBO Documentary Premiers Amid Controversy

In the run-up to the premiere, several fragments from the documentary were posted on the Internet, and people began to wonder what conclusions the film would make. In one of the most telling scenes, Hoback comes right out and tells Todd that he is Nakamoto. 

Although Bitcoin developer Peter Todd is not the only person presumed to be Nakamoto, the leak of the documentary has brought attention to him. However, the majority of the members within the crypto community continue to dismiss the allegations and refute the claims as fake and baseless. Adam Back, who has also been speculated to be Nakamoto, has not come out to refute the opinions made in the documentary.

HBO Doc Leaks: Satoshi’s Everywhere.

IMDB just got rugged! Before Money Electric even drops, users flipped the script, labelling everyone in the cast as Satoshi Nakamoto.

Total meme move, pulling in the “We Are All Satoshi” vibes.

Meanwhile, Polymarket’s got bets stacking:… pic.twitter.com/j6oFHR6EeL

— Mario Nawfal’s Roundtable (@RoundtableSpace) October 9, 2024

Concurrently, on Polymarket people have placed their bets on different people who might be Satoshi Nakamoto. Prior to the leak, American computer scientist Nick Szabo and cryptographer Len Sassaman were widely considered leaders in the pack. However, as the leaks became more popular, the choice of “Other/multiple” has become a favorite one.

The documentary IMDb page also attracted attention when it was changed to include nearly every actor in the film as Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto, which may be a nod to the “We Are All Satoshi” phenomenon that has been circulating in the crypto community. However, the page was later on reverted back to normal but this tactic only added more controversy to the documentary’s purpose.

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Kelvin Munene Murithi

Kelvin is a distinguished writer with expertise in crypto and finance, holding a Bachelor’s degree in Actuarial Science. Known for his incisive analysis and insightful content, he possesses a strong command of English and excels in conducting thorough research and delivering timely cryptocurrency market updates.

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.