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Understanding The Recent $300 Billion Crypto Drop

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Este artículo también está disponible en español.

The crypto market is experiencing a significant upheaval, with a staggering $300 billion erased in just 24 hours. This massive sell-off has raised concerns among investors, prompting analysts to explore the underlying causes of this dramatic decline.

Bitcoin And Ethereum Plummet

According to insights from the Kobelsi Letter, a global commentator on capital markets, the frequency of “flash crashes” in the crypto sector has surged since January. These rapid price declines can occur without major bearish news, leaving investors puzzled about the sudden volatility.

The recent downturn began with Bitcoin (BTC), which initially fell below $95,000. However, a sharp drop from $95,000 to $90,000 within just 30 minutes early in the morning served as a wake-up call for traders. 

Ethereum (ETH) has fared even worse, experiencing a staggering 37% drop over 60 hours on February 2nd, despite trade war headlines that had already been priced into the market.

One of the critical factors contributing to this crypto volatility, according to the analysts, is the drastic shift in liquidity and short positioning in Ethereum. In a single week, short positions surged by 40%, and since November 2024, they have skyrocketed by 500%. 

This unprecedented level of shorting by Wall Street hedge funds has created a precarious situation for Ethereum, which is now valued at approximately $300 billion.

As institutional investors increasingly short Ethereum, many have turned their attention to Bitcoin, creating a stark contrast in market dynamics. While retail interest in Bitcoin has waned, driven partly by a surge in memecoins, institutional capital continues to flow into Bitcoin, exacerbating the volatility in altcoins like Solana.

Retail Vs Institutional Investors Amid Crypto Volatility

Kobelsi further highlights that the current market environment is characterized by a polarization between retail and institutional investors. As liquidity decreases, price movements become increasingly erratic. This has resulted in significant “air pockets,” where sentiment can shift dramatically, leading to rapid price changes.

Recent sentiment analysis reveals that the crypto market is experiencing its lowest levels of enthusiasm for 2024. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index, which previously indicated a state of greed, has now dropped to a fear level of 29%. Such shifts in sentiment often precede flash crashes, as traders react to the changing landscape.

Adding to the complexity of the situation, public figures like Eric Trump have been vocal about their views on the largest crypto assets, Bitcoin and Ethereum. Trump has suggested that these price dips present buying opportunities, a perspective that may influence retail investors’ behavior.

Furthermore, companies like MicroStrategy have also impacted the crypto market dynamics. Despite a 45% drop in its stock since its November 20th peak, MicroStrategy continues to accumulate Bitcoin through convertible note offerings, reinforcing its commitment to the crypto and potentially influencing market sentiment.

Crypto
The daily chart shows ETH’s price crash. Source: ETHUSDT on TradingView.com

So far, Ethereum has managed to regain the $2,500 level after falling below $2,300 on Tuesday, recording losses of 7% in the 24-hour time frame.

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 



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Bitcoin Holds The Line—But Can It Bounce Back or Break Lower?

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Este artículo también está disponible en español.

Bitcoin price started a fresh increase above the $80,000 zone. BTC is now correcting gains and might struggle to stay above the $79,500 support.

  • Bitcoin started a fresh increase above the $80,000 zone.
  • The price is trading above $79,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.
  • There is a new connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at $80,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
  • The pair could start another increase if it clears the $80,500 zone.

Bitcoin Price Dips Again

Bitcoin price started a fresh increase above the $77,500 zone. BTC formed a base and gained pace for a move above the $79,500 and $80,000 resistance levels.

The bulls pumped the price above the $82,500 resistance. A high was formed at $83,548 and the price recently started a downside correction. There was a move below the $81,500 support. The price dipped below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $74,572 swing low to the $83,548 high.

Bitcoin price is now trading above $79,200 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. On the upside, immediate resistance is near the $80,500 level. There is also a new connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at $80,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.

Bitcoin Price
Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

The first key resistance is near the $81,500 level. The next key resistance could be $82,500. A close above the $82,500 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $83,500 resistance level. Any more gains might send the price toward the $85,000 level.

More Losses In BTC?

If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $80,500 resistance zone, it could continue to move down. Immediate support on the downside is near the $79,500 level. The first major support is near the $79,000 level and the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $74,572 swing low to the $83,548 high.

The next support is now near the $78,000 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $76,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $75,000.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $79,500, followed by $79,000.

Major Resistance Levels – $80,500 and $81,500.



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Tariffs, Trade Tensions May Be Positive for Bitcoin (BTC) Adoption in Medium Term: Grayscale

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Tariffs and trade tensions could ultimately be positive for bitcoin (BTC) adoption in the medium term, asset manager Grayscale said in a research report Wednesday.

Higher tariffs result in stagflation— stagnant economic growth coupled with inflation — which is negative for traditional assets, but positive for scarce commodities such as gold, the report said.

Bitcoin is considered hard money, akin to digital gold, and is viewed as a modern store of value, the report noted.

Cryptocurrencies surged on Wednesday following President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 90-day pause on tariffs for countries that haven’t retaliated against the U.S.

“Trade tensions may put pressure on reserve demand for the U.S. Dollar, opening space for competing assets, including other fiat currencies, gold, and bitcoin,” Grayscale said.

Historical precedent suggests that dollar weakness and above-average inflation may persist, and bitcoin is likely to benefit from such a macro backdrop, the asset manager said.

“A rapidly improving market structure, supported by U.S. government policy changes” could help broaden bitcoin’s investor base, the report added.

Read more: Trump Administration Wants Weaker Dollar and That’s Positive for Bitcoin: Bitwise





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Jack Dorsey’s Block Launches Open Source Tools To Simplify Bitcoin Treasury Management

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Block announced it has released a new open source toolkit designed to help companies manage their Bitcoin treasury holdings more efficiently. The release includes a corporate Bitcoin holdings dashboard and a BTC-to-USD real-time price quote API, now available for all companies and developers via Block’s public GitHub repository under the Block Open Source initiative.

As Bitcoin adoption grows among institutional treasuries, businesses are seeking better tools to track and report their holdings. Block’s new dashboard directly addresses these needs, offering real-time visibility, simplicity, and adaptability.

The dashboard aims to help companies monitor the dollar value of their Bitcoin holdings through a user-friendly interface designed for both finance teams and executives. It integrates real-time pricing data via an open source BTC/USD quote API, with future plans for quarter-end historical lookup features to support financial reporting. Block has invited feedback and feature requests from the open source community via GitHub Issues.

Block further highlighted that companies are increasingly turning to Bitcoin for a variety of strategic reasons:

  • Diversification: Adding Bitcoin alongside traditional treasury assets.
  • Ecosystem support: Demonstrating alignment with Bitcoin innovation, particularly for crypto-forward businesses.
  • Inflation hedge: Serving as a store of value in the face of fiat currency devaluation.
  • Portfolio optimization: Aiming to enhance risk-adjusted returns.

The first working prototype  of the dashboard was created by non-engineers using Block’s internal open source AI agent, called codename goose. The AI agent enabled non-technical teams to prototype tools rapidly, with engineers from Block’s Bitcoin Platform team joining later to finalize development. Codename goose also contributed to front-end development via automated coding assistance.

Block has long been a corporate leader in Bitcoin investment. Its Bitcoin Investment Memo from October 2020 and its Bitcoin Blueprint for Corporate Balance Sheets laid the foundation for businesses entering the crypto space. Block said it continues to purchase Bitcoin through a monthly dollar-cost averaging (DCA) program and updates its dashboard quarterly after earnings reports. Its live Bitcoin treasury dashboard can be viewed here.

With this release, Block emphasized that it aims to empower other companies to manage Bitcoin on their balance sheets more confidently and transparently, further accelerating mainstream adoption of the world’s leading digital asset.



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