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What Do Bitcoin Miners Expect Next?

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Bitcoin miners have always been a reliable indicator of the overall sentiment within the market. By tracking their earnings and actions, we can get a sense of where the price of BTC might head next. In this article, we’ll explore the latest trends in Bitcoin mining, how miners are reacting to current market conditions, and what we can learn from key indicators to gauge how Bitcoin miners are positioning themselves for the coming weeks and months.

State of Miner Earnings

One of the best ways to assess Bitcoin miner sentiment is to examine their earnings in relation to historical data. This can be done using The Puell Multiple, which measures current miner earnings against the yearly average from the previous year.

As of the latest data, the Puell Multiple is hovering around 0.8, meaning miners are earning 80% of what they were making on average over the past year. This is a marked improvement from a few weeks ago when the multiple was as low as 0.53, indicating miners were earning just over half of their previous year’s average.

Figure 1: Miner earnings are down compared to the historical average. View Live Chart 🔍

This significant drop earlier in the year likely put financial pressure on many miners. However, despite these challenges, the fact that the Puell Multiple is recovering suggests that the outlook for miners might be improving.

Hashrate and Network Growth

Even though earnings are down, there are no signs of miners leaving the network. In fact, Bitcoin’s hashrate, which is the total computational power used to secure the network, has been steadily increasing. This surge in hashrate indicates that more miners are entering the network or existing miners are upgrading their equipment to compete for block rewards.

Figure 2: Hashrate continues to climb to new all-time highs. View Live Chart 🔍

However, looking at the Hash Ribbons Indicator, which tracks the 30-day (blue line) and 60-day (purple line) moving averages of Bitcoin’s hashrate, these two averages have been getting closer to crossing, which could potentially indicate a bearish outlook for the short term. When the 60-day average rises above the 30-day average, it historically points to miner capitulation, a time when miners, under financial stress, shut off their equipment.

Figure 3: Hash Ribbons could be on the verge of a bearish crossover. View Live Chart 🔍

Until we see a bearish crossover, there’s no immediate sign of bearishness. One positive is that every time this happens, it has been followed by a period of accumulation, which typically precedes a rise in Bitcoin prices. Investors often consider these capitulation periods great opportunities to buy BTC at lower prices.

How Much Are Miners Making?

While we’ve discussed miner earnings in relation to Bitcoin’s price, another important factor is the Hashprice, the amount of BTC or USD miners can earn for each terahash (TH/s) of computational power they contribute to the network.

Figure 4: Hashprice indicates increased competition for block rewards in spite of decreased earnings post-halving. View Live Chart 🔍

Currently, miners earn approximately 0.73 BTC per terahash, or about $45,000 in USD terms. This amount has been steadily decreasing in the months following the latest Bitcoin halving event, where miners’ block rewards were cut in half, reducing their profitability. Despite these challenges, miners are still increasing their hashrate, which suggests they’re betting on future BTC price appreciation to compensate for their lower earnings.

One of the most interesting metrics to watch is the Hashprice Volatility, which tracks how stable or volatile miner earnings are over time. Historically, periods of low hashprice volatility have preceded significant price movements for Bitcoin. As of the latest data, hashprice volatility has begun to drop again, suggesting we could be nearing a period of substantial price movement for Bitcoin.

Figure 5: Hashprice volatility is at very low levels, outlining the potential for a sustained volatile trend in the near future. View Live Chart 🔍

Conclusion

Bitcoin miner earnings are down compared to a historical average post-halving, but they’re recovering from a recent significant low. Bitcoin’s hashrate is still climbing; meaning miners are pouring more computational power into the network despite lower profitability. The hashprice continues to drop, but miners remain optimistic, likely due to expected future price appreciation. Hashprice volatility is falling, historically indicating that a large move in BTC’s price could be imminent.

Bitcoin miners seem to be bullish about the long-term potential of BTC, despite current challenges. If current metric trends hold, we could be on the verge of a significant price movement, with most indications pointing towards a positive outlook.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here:

What Do Bitcoin Miners Expect Next?



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Exploring Six On-Chain Indicators to Understand the Bitcoin Market Cycle

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With Bitcoin now making six-figure territory feel normal and higher prices a seeming inevitability, the analysis of key on-chain data provides valuable insights into the underlying health of the market. By understanding these metrics, investors can better anticipate price movements and prepare for potential market peaks or even any upcoming retracements.

Terminal Price

The Terminal Price metric, which incorporates the Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) while factoring in Bitcoin’s supply, has historically been a reliable indicator for predicting Bitcoin cycle peaks. Coin Days Destroyed measures the velocity of coins being transferred, considering both the holding duration and the quantity of Bitcoin moved.

Figure 1: Bitcoin Terminal Price has surpassed $185,000.

View Live Chart 🔍

Currently, the terminal price has surpassed $185,000 and is likely to rise toward $200,000 as the cycle progresses. With Bitcoin already breaking $100,000, this suggests we may still have several months of positive price action ahead.

Puell Multiple

The Puell Multiple evaluates daily miner revenue (in USD) relative to its 365-day moving average. After the halving event, miners experienced a sharp drop in revenue, creating a period of consolidation.

Figure 2: Puell Multiple has climbed above 1.00.

View Live Chart 🔍

Now, the Puell Multiple has climbed back above 1, signaling a return to profitability for miners. Historically, surpassing this threshold has indicated the later stages of a bull cycle, often marked by exponential price rallies. A similar pattern was observed during all previous bull runs.

MVRV Z-Score

The MVRV Z-Score measures the market value relative to the realized value (average cost basis of Bitcoin holders). Standardized into a Z-Score to account for the asset’s volatility, it’s been highly accurate in identifying cycle peaks and bottoms.

Figure 3: MVRV-Z Score still considerably below where previous peaks have occurred.

View Live Chart 🔍

Currently, Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score remains below the overheated red zone with a value of around 3.00, signaling that there’s still room for growth. While diminishing peaks have been a trend in recent cycles, the Z-Score suggests that the market is far from reaching a euphoric top.

Active Address Sentiment

This metric tracks the 28-day percentage change in active network addresses alongside the price change over the same period. When price growth outpaces network activity, it suggests the market may be short-term overbought, as the positive price action may not be sustainable given network utilization.

Figure 4: AASI indicated overheated conditions above $100,000.

View Live Chart 🔍

Recent data shows a slight cooling after Bitcoin’s rapid climb from $50,000 to $100,000, indicating a healthy consolidation period. This pause is likely setting the stage for sustained long-term growth and does not indicate we should be medium to long-term bearish.

Spent Output Profit Ratio

The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) measures realized profits from Bitcoin transactions. Recent data shows an uptick in profit-taking, potentially indicating we are entering the latter stages of the cycle.

Figure 5: Large SOPR clusters of profit taking.

View Live Chart 🔍

One caveat to consider is the growing use of Bitcoin ETFs and derivative products. Investors may be shifting from self-custody to ETFs for ease of use and tax advantages, which could influence SOPR values.

Value Days Destroyed

Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple expands on CDD by weighting larger, long-term holders. When this metric enters the overheated red zone, it often signals major price peaks as the market’s largest and most experienced participants begin cashing out.

Figure 6: VDD is warm but not too hot.

View Live Chart 🔍

While Bitcoin’s current VDD levels indicate a slightly overheated market, history suggests it could sustain this range for months before a peak. For example, in 2017, VDD indicated overbought conditions nearly a year before the cycle’s top.

Conclusion

Taken together, these metrics suggest that Bitcoin is entering the latter stages of its bull market. While some indicators point to short-term cooling or slight overextension, most highlight substantial remaining upside throughout 2025. Key resistance levels for this cycle may emerge between $150,000 and $200,000, with metrics like SOPR and VDD providing clearer signals as we approach the peak.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here: What’s Happening On-chain: Bitcoin Update

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.



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Bitcoin Magazine Pro

Exploring Five On-Chain Indicators to Understand the Bitcoin Market Cycle

Published

on


With Bitcoin now making six-figure territory feel normal and higher prices a seeming inevitability, the analysis of key on-chain data provides valuable insights into the underlying health of the market. By understanding these metrics, investors can better anticipate price movements and prepare for potential market peaks or even any upcoming retracements.

Terminal Price

The Terminal Price metric, which incorporates the Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) while factoring in Bitcoin’s supply, has historically been a reliable indicator for predicting Bitcoin cycle peaks. Coin Days Destroyed measures the velocity of coins being transferred, considering both the holding duration and the quantity of Bitcoin moved.

Figure 1: Bitcoin Terminal Price has surpassed $185,000.

View Live Chart 🔍

Currently, the terminal price has surpassed $185,000 and is likely to rise toward $200,000 as the cycle progresses. With Bitcoin already breaking $100,000, this suggests we may still have several months of positive price action ahead.

Puell Multiple

The Puell Multiple evaluates daily miner revenue (in USD) relative to its 365-day moving average. After the halving event, miners experienced a sharp drop in revenue, creating a period of consolidation.

Figure 2: Puell Multiple has climbed above 1.00.

View Live Chart 🔍

Now, the Puell Multiple has climbed back above 1, signaling a return to profitability for miners. Historically, surpassing this threshold has indicated the later stages of a bull cycle, often marked by exponential price rallies. A similar pattern was observed during all previous bull runs.

MVRV Z-Score

The MVRV Z-Score measures the market value relative to the realized value (average cost basis of Bitcoin holders). Standardized into a Z-Score to account for the asset’s volatility, it’s been highly accurate in identifying cycle peaks and bottoms.

Figure 3: MVRV-Z Score still considerably below where previous peaks have occurred.

View Live Chart 🔍

Currently, Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score remains below the overheated red zone with a value of around 3.00, signaling that there’s still room for growth. While diminishing peaks have been a trend in recent cycles, the Z-Score suggests that the market is far from reaching a euphoric top.

Active Address Sentiment

This metric tracks the 28-day percentage change in active network addresses alongside the price change over the same period. When price growth outpaces network activity, it suggests the market may be short-term overbought, as the positive price action may not be sustainable given network utilization.

Figure 4: AASI indicated overheated conditions above $100,000.

View Live Chart 🔍

Recent data shows a slight cooling after Bitcoin’s rapid climb from $50,000 to $100,000, indicating a healthy consolidation period. This pause is likely setting the stage for sustained long-term growth and does not indicate we should be medium to long-term bearish.

Spent Output Profit Ratio

The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) measures realized profits from Bitcoin transactions. Recent data shows an uptick in profit-taking, potentially indicating we are entering the latter stages of the cycle.

Figure 5: Large SOPR clusters of profit taking.

View Live Chart 🔍

One caveat to consider is the growing use of Bitcoin ETFs and derivative products. Investors may be shifting from self-custody to ETFs for ease of use and tax advantages, which could influence SOPR values.

Value Days Destroyed

Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple expands on CDD by weighting larger, long-term holders. When this metric enters the overheated red zone, it often signals major price peaks as the market’s largest and most experienced participants begin cashing out.

Figure 6: VDD is warm but not too hot.

View Live Chart 🔍

While Bitcoin’s current VDD levels indicate a slightly overheated market, history suggests it could sustain this range for months before a peak. For example, in 2017, VDD indicated overbought conditions nearly a year before the cycle’s top.

Conclusion

Taken together, these metrics suggest that Bitcoin is entering the latter stages of its bull market. While some indicators point to short-term cooling or slight overextension, most highlight substantial remaining upside throughout 2025. Key resistance levels for this cycle may emerge between $150,000 and $200,000, with metrics like SOPR and VDD providing clearer signals as we approach the peak.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here: What’s Happening On-chain: Bitcoin Update

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.



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Bitcoin Magazine Pro

What is the Bitcoin Puell Multiple Indicator and How Does It Work?

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In the world of Bitcoin investing, understanding market cycles is key to identifying buying opportunities and spotting potential price peaks. One indicator that has stood the test of time in this regard is the Puell Multiple. Originally created by David Puell, this metric examines Bitcoin’s valuation through the lens of miner revenue, offering insights into whether Bitcoin might be undervalued or overvalued compared to its historical norms.

This article will explain what the Puell Multiple is, how to interpret it, and what the current reading on the chart suggests for investors. For a real-time look at this tool, check out the Puell Multiple chart on Bitcoin Magazine Pro.

The Puell Multiple Chart on Bitcoin Magazine Pro

What is the Puell Multiple?

The Puell Multiple is an indicator that compares Bitcoin miners’ daily revenue to its long-term average. Miners, as the “supply side” of Bitcoin’s economy, must sell portions of their BTC rewards to cover operational costs like energy and hardware. This makes miner revenue a critical factor influencing Bitcoin’s price dynamics.

How is the Puell Multiple Calculated?

The formula is simple:

Puell Multiple = Daily Issuance Value of BTC (in USD) ÷ 365-Day Moving Average of Daily Issuance Value

By comparing current miner revenues to their yearly average, the Puell Multiple identifies periods where miner profits are unusually high or low, signaling potential market tops or bottoms.

How to Read the Puell Multiple Chart

The Puell Multiple chart uses color zones to make interpretation straightforward:

  1. Red Zone (Overvaluation)
    • When the Puell Multiple enters the red zone (above 3.4), it suggests miner revenues are significantly higher than usual.
    • Historically, this has coincided with Bitcoin price peaks, indicating potential overvaluation.
  2. Green Zone (Undervaluation)
    • When the Puell Multiple drops into the green zone (below 0.5), it signals that miner revenues are unusually low.
    • These periods have historically aligned with Bitcoin market bottoms, offering prime buying opportunities.
  3. Neutral Zone
    • When the Puell Multiple hovers between these levels, Bitcoin’s price is typically in a steady range relative to historical norms.

Current Insights: What is the Puell Multiple Telling Us?

Looking at the current Puell Multiple chart from Bitcoin Magazine Pro:

  • The Puell Multiple (orange line) is trending upward but remains well below the red overvaluation zone.
  • This suggests that Bitcoin is not yet in an overheated phase, where prices historically peak.
  • At the same time, the metric is far above the green undervaluation zone, signaling we are no longer in a market bottom phase.

What Does This Mean for Investors?

The current Puell Multiple reading points to Bitcoin being in a mid-market cycle:

  • Bullish Momentum: With the metric rising steadily, the market appears to be moving into a bullish phase, though it remains far from “overheated.”
  • No Immediate Peak: The lack of a red zone reading suggests there may still be room for upside growth before a major correction.

Investors should monitor this chart closely in the coming months, particularly as Bitcoin approaches its next halving event in 2028, which could further influence miner revenues.

Why the Puell Multiple Matters for Bitcoin Investors

The Puell Multiple offers a unique perspective on Bitcoin’s market cycles by focusing on the supply side (miner revenue), rather than just demand. For long-term investors, this tool can be valuable for:

  • Identifying Buying Opportunities: The green zone highlights periods of undervaluation.
  • Spotting Market Peaks: The red zone has historically aligned with major price tops.
  • Navigating Market Cycles: Combining the Puell Multiple with other indicators can help investors time their entries and exits more strategically.

Stay Ahead of the Market with Bitcoin Magazine Pro

For professional investors and Bitcoin enthusiasts looking to deepen their analysis, tools like the Puell Multiple chart on Bitcoin Magazine Pro provide essential insights into Bitcoin’s valuation trends.

By understanding the Puell Multiple and its historical significance, you can make informed decisions and better navigate Bitcoin’s unique market cycles.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.



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