Recent Ethereum price action saw ETH reaching another low of $2,150 on September 6, raising concerns of a more severe drop towards the $2,000 price level. Although these concerns were eased with a subsequent bounce to $2,460 on September 13, Ethereum remains largely in a downtrend, with a triple-bottom price formation now shaping up.

Interestingly, this triple bottom formation is not new for Ethereum. As technical analysis points out, the current price action seems to repeat a similar playout in mid-2021.  

Ethereum Fractal Suggests Rally In Q4

According to a technical analysis by crypto analyst CryptoBullet on social media platform X, Ethereum is shaping up to form a triple bottom price formation on the 1D candlestick time frame. While the third bottom has yet to be fully completed, the analyst draws attention to a similar pattern that unfolded between June and August 2021.

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During those three months, Ethereum’s price fluctuated up and down to create three distinct lows just above the $1,675 mark. After the third low was established, Ethereum experienced a significant bullish rally that propelled it to break through and establish its current all-time high. This upward movement became even more pronounced after a fractal pattern emerged in August 2021, signaling a strong momentum shift.

Recent market dynamics have prompted Ethereum to create two bottoms of around $2,150 in August and September. Interestingly, a recent rejection at the $2,450 resistance has seen Ethereum pushing on a decline. This has prompted analyst CryptoBullet to highlight the possibility of a third low in October, thereby completing the triple bottom formation.

Price formations in cryptocurrency markets are known to repeat over time, often following patterns that can help traders anticipate future movements. While no two market conditions are exactly the same, studying past price movements provides valuable insights into what may happen in the future. A similar playout of the 2021 price action puts on a similar surge for Ethereum in Q4 2024. Notably, the analyst envisioned a rally towards the $3,700 price level. 

What’s Next For ETH?

At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading at $2,320 and continues to exhibit a weak short-term outlook. If Ethereum fails to clear the $2,340 resistance, it could start another decline towards $2,150. 

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This weak performance and outlook are even more pronounced compared with Bitcoin. As such, Ethereum/Bitcoin is now at its lowest level since April 2021, a staggering 41-month low. Most of this lackluster action has also been exacerbated by selloffs from a few large holders. For instance, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin recently came under scrutiny for selling $2.2 million worth of Ethereum. 

Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Ethereum price plunged 0.21% to $2411 during a less volatile weekend. The modest downtick can be attributed to market uncertainty as Ethereum developers consider splitting the highly anticipated Pectra upgrade. Will the split affect the ETH rally to $4000?

Will Ethereum Price Rally Stall as Pectra Upgrade Faces Division?

The Ethereum developers are considering splitting the highlighted anticipated Pectra upgrade, which is set to enhance the network’s scalability, security, and efficiency, into two distinct parts to meet the 2025 deadline.

Christine Kim, a researcher at Galaxy Digital, believes “the scope of the Pectra upgrade could change drastically if devs decide to split it across two hard forks.”

The plan includes dividing the 20 Ethereum Improvement Proposals (EIPs), with some additional updates still under review. Kim noted the first part could be released by February 2025 and is focused on significant changes to the network’s execution layer and consensus layer.

The second phase will prioritize implementing the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) Object Format (EOF) and PeerDAS, which will further optimize Ethereum’s efficiency and scalability.

This proposal will be finalized in next Thursday’s All Core Devs call. While the Ethereum price could witness initial volatility, the two-stage update reflects developers’ dedication to ensuring a successful Pectra upgrade, which may boost bullish momentum.

The above is how developers are thinking about splitting the current list of 20 EIPs in Pectra across two upgrades.

But aside from the 20, there are a BUNCH of new code changes that developers could decide to include in Pectra 2. They are: pic.twitter.com/rTxZjgAvrL

— Christine Kim (@christine_dkim) September 13, 2024

According to the Santiment data, the 30-day MVRV ratio at -1.75 accentuates that short-term ETH holders are witnessing loss. This negative value often coincides with a potential price jump as the typical speculative trader exits the market at a loss, while large holders use this opportunity to accumulate.

ETH Price Heading For Key Resistance Breakout

The Ethereum price daily chart shows a V-shaped reversal from $2,150 to $2,440, registering a 13.4% growth. This second reversal within five weeks accentuates the active demand pressure around the $2,000 psychological level, which pushed the ETH price above a critical downsloping resistance. 

While the weekend volatility allows buyers to retest the breached resistance, the post-breakout rally could bolster a 17% rally to challenge the $2,800 resistance. A successful breach of this barrier will set the Ethereum price prediction target at $3,550, followed by $4,100.

However, a negative alignment in daily exponential moving averages (20, 50, 100, and 200) and  Metalpha’s $90M ETH sale has accelerated overhead selling. If the $2,800 resistance holds firm, the ETH price could prolong its current consolidation and may revisit the $2,000 bottom support.

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Sahil Mahadik

Sahil is a dedicated full-time trader with over three years of experience in the financial markets. Armed with a strong grasp of technical analysis, he keeps a vigilant eye on the daily price movements of top assets and indices. Drawn by his fascination with financial instruments, Sahil enthusiastically embraced the emerging realm of cryptocurrency, where he continues to explore opportunities driven by his passion for trading

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.