Bitcoin has yet to rally in October, with many bullish proponents awaiting the resumption of an uptrend. Among those closely monitoring the price action in anticipation of an uptrend is a well-known analyst on the social media platform X. This analyst, who goes by the name Ash Crypto, recently highlighted a striking similarity between Bitcoin’s current price behavior and a notable pattern observed earlier in 2023. Ash Crypto pointed to Bitcoin’s decline in early October 2023, which ultimately reversed into a multi-month rally to its current all-time high.

Explaining The Similar Price Action

October 2023 was the turning point for the price of Bitcoin and many cryptocurrencies. It was during this month that the crypto industry finally broke out of a lengthy bear cycle, with Bitcoin heralding the charge toward renewed optimism and significant price gains.

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For the first time since January, Bitcoin’s market capitalization surged by an impressive 28.52%, sparking a shift in market dynamics that rippled throughout the industry. Although altcoins followed a similar upward trajectory, their gains were modest compared to Bitcoin. However, their collective impact was able to push the entire cryptocurrency market capitalization past the $1.25 trillion mark for the first time since May 2022.

However, while October 2023 was the start of the new bull cycle, what most investors don’t know or have forgotten is that the month started on a negative note. As Ash Crypto pointed out, the price of Bitcoin dropped by 7.5% in the first week of October 2023. According to the BTC/USD price chart, this decline saw the price of Bitcoin fall below $26,500. However, it soon rebounded from this point. By the end of October 2023, Bitcoin had rallied to close the month at over $35,000, representing a remarkable 33% increase from the month’s low.

Fast forward to October 2024, and it appears that Bitcoin is once again repeating its pattern from the previous year. At the start of the month, Bitcoin was trading just below $64,000, a strong position given its recent bullish trends. However, in a movement similar to October 2023, the cryptocurrency experienced another sharp decline, this time dropping by 6.5% within the first three days. Notably, the price briefly touched $60,750 during this period.

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What Does This Mean For Bitcoin?

If history were to repeat itself in full, Bitcoin could maybe or maybe not drop a little bit more before rebounding to the upside. According to Ash Crypto’s projection, a similar 33% surge would see Bitcoin shooting above its current all-time high, with a monthly close right in the middle of $75,000 and $76,000.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin has recovered a bit and is now trading at $61,580. Despite this early setback, many bullish investors are keeping a close eye on Bitcoin in anticipation of Uptober coming to fruition. 

Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

$4.5 billion crypto asset manager Bitwise is filing for its second crypto exchange-traded fund (ETF) this week.

According to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Bitwise filed a Form N-1A for a new product called the Bitwise Trendwise Bitcoin and Treasuries Rotation Strategy ETF (BITC) earlier today.

A Form N-1A is a required registration form for management companies.

This is the second ETF filing that Bitwise has made with the SEC this week.

On Wednesday morning, Bitwise submitted an S-1 registration statement to the SEC for a spot XRP ETF tracking the price movements of XRP, according to a report.

Bitwise has already successfully launched ETFs in the United States for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH).

According to today’s filing, BITC will be a novel type of ETF product aiming to capitalize on the potential upside of Bitcoin while also mitigating downside risks by rotating into U.S. Treasuries when Bitcoin’s volatile price consolidates.

Per a press release from Bitwise, the filing is part of a larger movement to convert three futures-based ETFs into trendwise strategy investment vehicles.

“The conversion is expected to take place on or around December 3, 2024. The funds will change their names and strategies as follows:

BITC: The Bitwise Bitcoin Strategy Optimum Roll ETF will convert to the Bitwise Trendwise Bitcoin and Treasuries Rotation Strategy ETF

AETH: The Bitwise Ethereum Strategy ETF will convert to the Bitwise Trendwise Ethereum and Treasuries Rotation Strategy ETF

BTOP: The Bitwise Bitcoin and Ether Equal Weight Strategy ETF will convert to the Bitwise Trendwise BTC/ETH and Treasuries Rotation Strategy ETF”

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Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds experienced a third consecutive day of outflows on Oct. 3, pushing the total withdrawals over the period to $361.2 million.

According to data from SoSoValue, the 12 U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $54.13 million on Thursday, Oct. 3, following the previous day’s $91.76 million withdrawal.

ARK 21Shares’ ARKB fund led the pack with $57.97 million in outflows, marking its fourth consecutive day of declines, with $212.1 million exiting the fund this week alone. Fidelity’s FBTC trailed closely with $37.21 million in outflows, despite experiencing a day of positive inflows earlier in the week.

BlackRock’s IBIT, the largest spot Bitcoin ETF by total net assets, bucked the trend by logging $35.96 million in inflows, bringing its total since launch to an impressive $21.5 billion.

Bitwise’s BITB and Invesco’s BTCO also recorded modest inflows of $2.65 million and $2.44 million, respectively. The remaining spot Bitcoin ETFs remained neutral on the day.

Total trading volume across the 12 Bitcoin ETFs saw a significant decline, dropping to $1.13 billion on October 3 from the prior day’s levels. Despite the recent outflows, these funds have collectively attracted a net inflow of $18.47 billion since their inception. Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC) was trading sideways at $61,213 at the time of reporting.

Spot Ether ETFs log $3.2m in outflows

The trend extended to U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs, which posted net daily outflows of $3.2 million. Grayscale’s ETHE led the outflows, with $14.69 million exiting the fund, followed by $587,090 in outflows from Fidelity’s FETH.

However, BlackRock’s Ethereum Trust ETHA counterbalanced some of the losses, registering $12.08 million in net inflows. The six remaining spot Ether ETFs remained static for the day.

Ether ETF trading volumes also fell sharply, with the nine funds recording $115.66 million in volume on Oct. 3, down from $197.82 million the day prior. Since their July launch, these ETFs have accumulated net outflows of $561.05 million. Ethereum (ETH) was trading at $2,381 at press time.