There is a noticeable buzz in the crypto community as the US presidential election draws near. Both Democratic and Republican candidates have expressed their intentions to pursue pro-crypto policies, sparking a surge in US political betting.

This is evident in Polymarket’s trading volumes breaking records and surpassing $380 million in July 2024 alone. Moreover, the platform’s monthly user count has grown to nearly 44,000 traders, up from roughly 4,000 in January.

That same summer, during a campaign event at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Vice President Kamala Harris vowed that if she were the US president-elect, she would “focus on cutting needless bureaucracy and unnecessary regulatory red tape” regarding cryptocurrencies. This rhetoric came against the backdrop of her opponent, Donald Trump’s longtime support for the crypto industry. It raised reasonable suspicion within the community, as many view Harris as the heir to the policies of the Biden administration, known for its strict attitude toward regulating crypto.

It became clear that digital finance would be one of the main areas of contention for both candidates. As things developed, everyone was anticipating the September 2024 debate between Trump and Harris. Before the event was announced, Trump declared that the United States would become the “crypto capital of the planet” if he were to return to the White House. Yet, either candidate’s lack of a definite stance on digital currencies during their discussion frustrated the crypto community.

It begs the question: are Harris and Trump merely after votes, or do they genuinely aim to incorporate cryptocurrency into people’s everyday lives? After all, according to the U.S. Federal Reserve survey, 18 million or 7% of adult Americans owned or used cryptocurrency in 2023. This percentage may not seem like it could impact the election results much, but given the very small gap between the candidates’ numbers, this figure could prove decisive.

Is Harris the successor to Biden’s harsh crypto policies?

The majority of Kamala Harris’ professional life has been devoted to prosecution. She began her career in 1990 as a deputy district attorney in Oakland, California, and held the office of California attorney general until 2017. Upon her election to the US Senate in January 2017, she made history as the first-ever female senator of color.

As she advanced in her political career, Harris took the oath of office and became Vice President of the United States in early 2021, soon after the 2020 presidential election when the Biden-Harris tandem rose to power.

The strongest turmoil around crypto regulation emerged in March 2022, when the White House released Joe Biden’s executive order on ensuring the responsible development of digital assets. Although the order didn’t specify how regulation should proceed, it highlighted concerns about consumer protection, criminal activity, global economic leadership, financial inclusion, and innovation.

However, Harris’ initial support for Biden’s growing regulatory scrutiny of cryptocurrencies isn’t the crypto community’s biggest concern. Harris is likely to appoint Gary Gensler, the current chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission, as Treasury Secretary. Once seen as progressive on digital assets, Gensler is now regarded as a staunch crypto critic.

Gensler’s views on crypto have shifted dramatically. In 2018, before taking the helm of the SEC, many in the crypto industry hailed him as forward-thinking. At the time, he was researching digital assets and teaching Blockchain and Money courses at MIT. Binance attorneys even claimed that Gensler offered to consult for the exchange, including setting up a meeting with former CEO Changpeng Zhao in Japan.

However, after Joe Biden appointed him to lead the SEC in 2021, Gensler’s public stance shifted toward regulation. He described the crypto market as a “Wild West” rife with scams.

“I believe we have a crypto market now where many tokens may be unregistered securities.”

Gary Gensler’s most high-profile crypto-related case was the indictment of Sam Bankman-Fried, the so-called “King of Crypto,” who received a 25-year sentence in 2022 for embezzling billions from FTX users. This case cemented Gensler’s transition from just a crypto skeptic to an outright opponent. 

Later on, in 2023, the SEC filed 13 charges against Binance and its CEO, Changpeng Zhao, despite Gensler’s previous offer to consult for them. That same year, the SEC took another legal action against Coinbase. These two lawsuits resulted in tokens like Solana, Polygon, and Cardano being labeled “unregistered securities” and suffering significant losses. 

Overall, Gensler’s latest actions directly contradicted his earlier public positions. In January 2024, he warned potential investors that cryptocurrencies “continued to be subject to significant risk” and suggested that many crypto asset services might not comply with federal securities laws.

So, it seems like such an anti-crypto mindset complicates Harris’ promise to simplify cryptocurrency regulations. Adding to the skepticism, Harris has strong support from major Democratic elites, such as the Obamas and the Clintons, whose views on crypto are also far from favorable.

Back in 2016, Barack Obama remained silent on encryption and digital assets during his presidency despite portraying himself as tech-savvy. His reluctance to implement these technologies for the protection of civil rights and liberties disappointed over 100,000 petitioners who had hoped he would champion the cause. Meanwhile, in 2021, Hillary Clinton stated that cryptocurrencies could undermine entire nations and threaten the US dollar’s status as the global reserve currency. 

Other figures aligned with Harris share similar views. Xavier Becerra, Secretary of Health and Human Services and former California attorney general, warned against digital asset scams in 2020. Jennifer Granholm, US Secretary of Energy, who supports Harris, initiated an investigation into the energy usage of a Texas crypto miner, leading to a lawsuit alleging government overreach.

And now that Joe Biden has withdrawn from the 2024 presidential race, likely with the influence of pro-Democratic elites, the crypto community questions whether Harris will be able to make meaningful changes in a landscape where the key decision makers remain opposed to mass adoption.

Harris’ opponent, on the other hand, presents brighter prospects for the crypto world. Donald Trump first began his political career when he publicly expressed his desire to run for president back in the 1980s, but the press treated these statements as publicity stunts. In 1999, he switched his voter registration from the Republican Party to the Reform Party and formed a presidential exploratory committee. He did not run in 2000 but later rejoined the Republican Party and maintained a high public profile during the 2012 election.

It was later in 2015 when Trump announced his candidacy for the 2016 election under the slogan “Make America Great Again.” The presidential race between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton was very heated, full of scandals and loud accusations. 

Ultimately, on November 8, 2016, when the votes were counted, Trump shocked everyone by garnering a higher number of votes in crucial Rust Belt states. Having successfully capitalized on the economic anxieties and racial prejudices of some working-class whites, his inauguration took place on January 20, 2017.

But the former president hasn’t always spoken favorably of cryptocurrency. He claimed in a 2019 tweet that cryptocurrency is “highly volatile and based on thin air.” The last time similar rhetoric was used was in 2021 when Trump told Fox Business that Bitcoin is a “scam” that jeopardizes the US dollar’s importance.

That all changed after the SEC began enforcing harsh policies on the major cryptocurrency exchanges and the industry as a whole. Following this, Trump and the Republican Party started criticizing the Democrats and their regulatory attempts under President Joe Biden, dubbing the situation a “war on crypto.” This was one way Trump scored political points, but it wasn’t the only reason for his shift in tone. Beyond politics, he personally witnessed the economic benefits of cryptocurrencies.

In early 2022, Trump sold his own branded non-fungible tokens worth millions of dollars and began accepting crypto donations for his campaign, raising $3 million in July 2024. Meanwhile, investors have been purchasing fan-created crypto meme coins, such as the MAGA token (TRUMP), as a show of support for his campaign. Notably, Trump was gifted an enormous collection of this token, currently valued at over $4 million. These revelations influenced his stance, and during a speech at one of the biggest crypto events, Bitcoin 2024, Trump acknowledged the challenges facing the community and pledged to fire Gary Gensler on his first day back in the White House. He also said that if he wins, “Joe Biden and Kamala Harris’ anti-crypto crusade will be over.”

Despite his previous statements, Trump has gained strong support from the crypto community and tech leaders. For example, he has won endorsements from industry heavyweights like the Winklevoss twins and Elon Musk. But they’re not the only Trump supporters who are backing cryptocurrencies. Ohio Senator J.D. Vance, who Trump nominated as his Vice President, has attracted a lot of buzz among the crypto community as well. 

Vance revealed in his most recent federal financial disclosure that he owns between $100,000 and $250,000 worth of Bitcoin. He is also known for his connections to prominent Silicon Valley billionaires, many of whom support his VP nomination. Prominent businessmen such as Panatir co-founder Joe Lonsdale and Doug Leone of VC Sequoia Capital, among others, have already raised more than $8 million to support the Trump-Vance ticket, according to a recent Federal Election Commission filing.

Special mention should be made of Robert Kennedy Jr., who, as an independent candidate, recently dropped out of the current election race and urged his supporters to vote for Trump. Kennedy Jr. also declared his complete dedication to Bitcoin during the Bitcoin 2024 conference and revealed that the majority of his wealth is in digital assets.

On this, Trump isn’t backing down from his pro-crypto stance. In September 2024, he announced the launch of his own crypto platform, World Liberty Financial, to be operated by his sons, Eric and Donald Trump Jr. The platform is expected to function similarly to others like Coinbase, Gemini, and Binance, charging users fees for trading cryptocurrencies. In the future, it may also introduce WLFI, the platform’s own token.

Overall, Trump is clearly benefiting from these actions, actively swaying the pro-crypto electorate in his favor. Analysts at Bernstein predict that if Trump wins, the price of Bitcoin could reach $90,000 by the end of 2024. In contrast, the same analysis projects that the world’s largest cryptocurrency could drop to as low as $30,000 if Harris prevails.

What to expect if Kamala Harris wins?

As for Kamala Harris, all her public statements on cryptocurrency regulation lack detail. On the one hand, Harris might use pro-crypto rhetoric to politically distinguish herself from Biden and present herself as an independent leader. On the other hand, her strong connections to anti-crypto politicians and elites could pose a significant obstacle to implementing her claimed intentions. As a result, her promises have no solid foundation, as evidenced by their vague wording. For this reason, her hints about loosening crypto regulations seem unconvincing. 

Overall, the US government’s current stance on crypto is gradually becoming more lenient, but these are minor adjustments that do not significantly impact the bigger picture. Under a Harris presidency, any changes would likely proceed just as slowly and reluctantly, though they will occur nonetheless, as cryptocurrencies are definitely here to stay.

What to expect if Donald Trump wins?

Regarding Donald Trump, it’s interesting to note how he brings up the subject of crypto in his statements to set himself apart from the current administration. It is quite obviously one of his strategies to win over particular voters to his cause. However, his support for the crypto community extends beyond petty political maneuvers. After personally witnessing the potential profitability of cryptocurrencies, the former president’s skepticism has dissipated.

Trump is known for his flighty nature and ability to make quick decisions, which sets him apart from conservative candidates on this issue. Given his impulsive nature, it stands to reason that if he were elected president, he might take a more visible step toward crypto regulation. If he prevails, that is at least more likely to happen.

Conclusion

The competition between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in the 2024 US presidential election underscores their contrasting approaches to cryptocurrency regulation. Harris, despite pledging to reduce regulatory hurdles, is seen as a continuation of the Biden administration’s stringent crypto policies, which have generally fostered skepticism within the crypto community. 

On the other hand, Trump’s evolving stance on cryptocurrency, marked by public endorsements and proactive measures to support the industry, has garnered significant backing from the crypto-friendly electorate. Financial analysts at Goldman Sachs and Jeffries support Bernstein’s forecast that Bitcoin could increase in value to between $90,000 and $100,000 if Trump is elected.

Notably, some experts are optimistic about Bitcoin’s growth regardless of the election outcome. For example, FBS analytics predict that the price of Bitcoin will rise to $100,000 by 2025 if all current trends in crypto adoption continue. In a chart, they showed how BTCUSD has formed a cup-and-handle pattern, which is a classic bullish pattern. 

If the price breaks the upper trend line above the $67,000 resistance level, the $90,000 mark, corresponding to the 138.2 Fibonacci line, will be the nearest target. And if resistance at $90,000 is broken, Bitcoin could reach $102,000.

Such predictions give the entire crypto community reasonable hope that mass crypto adoption is just a matter of time.

Mike Ermoalev

Mike Ermoalev is the founder and CEO of Outset PR, a pioneering agency known for its disruptive PR initiatives that drive meaningful impact in the blockchain, Web3, and AI sectors. Regularly featured in top publications, Mike shares his sharp eye for crypto market opportunities and potential risks, blending in-depth research with refreshingly straightforward explanations. Mike also masterminded the Crypto Opinion interview series, scoring incredible sit-downs with influential figures like Ripple and Tether executives, rocker Matt Sorum, and even Prince Philip of Serbia – sharing exclusive insights with readers.

Will Congress fix crypto regulation before it’s too late? Behnam says the lack of legal clarity leaves the CFTC “handcuffed” as the crypto market continues to evolve.

CFTC is “handcuffed”

U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chair Rostin Behnam is raising concerns, and it’s not just about the growing complexity of the crypto market. 

Behnam, a longtime advocate for clearer rules in the digital asset space, is now urging Congress to address two critical issues: crypto regulation and election betting.

In recent remarks at a key industry meeting, Behnam irked that as technological disruption accelerates, the absence of clearer legal frameworks leaves regulators like the CFTC “handcuffed.”

Without action from Congress, the risks to both investors and the integrity of U.S. markets will continue to rise. But with an election year approaching and political obstacles mounting, will lawmakers act in time to close these gaps — or will we remain in the dark?

The unfinished business of crypto regulation

Behnam’s call for action on cryptocurrency isn’t new, but the stakes have never been higher. The quick ascent of digital assets, from Bitcoin (BTC) to decentralized finance, has left the regulatory framework struggling to catch up.

Several bills, like the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act, aim to provide some clarity, but they remain stuck in legislative limbo. 

FIT 21, which passed the House of Representatives earlier this year, would grant the CFTC greater authority over “digital commodities” like Bitcoin. However, progress has yet to be made in the Senate.

FIT 21, for instance, proposes clearer tests to determine whether a digital asset is a commodity or a security, but it also raises new questions. How should regulators define decentralization? 

More importantly, who gets to decide which assets are decentralized enough to be classified as commodities and which fall under securities laws? 

And to top it all off, there is the pressing dilemma of over-interference by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and its current chair, Gary Gensler, a known crypto critic, whose policies and administration are considered by many to have done more harm than good.

Hence, without a well-defined legal framework, the CFTC finds itself in a difficult position — able to enforce some rules but unable to fully protect investors. 

This regulatory gap, Behnam argues, exposes markets to bad actors and discourages institutional investors from entering the space with confidence. 

Behnam doesn’t expect Congress to take meaningful action this year due to the holidays and the urgency of passing a federal budget. 

“I think as we look into 2025, with a new Congress and potentially a new president, you’re likely to see some legislation,” he noted.

Growing chaos of election betting

While the crypto market faces regulatory ambiguity, the rise of election betting platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket has thrown the CFTC into a legal battle it didn’t foresee.

Kalshi, a prediction market where users can bet on election outcomes, clashed with the CFTC when the agency deemed election contracts illegal, arguing that they could undermine public trust in democratic processes.

This wasn’t the first time the CFTC cracked down on such platforms. Polymarket, another prediction market built on the Polygon (POL) blockchain, was fined $1.4 million in 2022 for operating without proper regulatory compliance, forcing it to halt operations for U.S. residents.

The debate intensified when Kalshi sued the CFTC in 2023, resulting in a court ruling in favor of the platform in September 2024. The judge found that the CFTC had exceeded its statutory authority by blocking Kalshi’s election contracts.

The agency quickly appealed the decision, but Kalshi resumed bets on the 2024 U.S. presidential election. This has raised alarms, not only from regulators but also from prominent voices in the industry.

Billionaire investor Mark Cuban, a vocal critic of these platforms, expressed concerns that betting markets could be skewed by foreign influence or market manipulation. “These odds aren’t indicative of anything meaningful,” Cuban commented.

On the other hand, figures like Peter Thiel, the tech billionaire, have financially backed Polymarket, viewing it as a tool for harnessing market sentiment.

With billions of dollars flowing through these platforms during election cycles, Congress’s delayed action could make it harder to control prediction markets and protect the integrity of U.S. elections.

Betting markets thrive despite legal scrutiny and criticism

As the U.S. election cycle races to its conclusion in just two weeks, prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are witnessing unprecedented activity despite ongoing legal battles and heavy criticism.

Kalshi, which launched its election prediction contracts in October after winning a court case against the CFTC, has gained some momentum.

The platform has attracted over $47 million in trading volume for its main U.S. election contract as of Oct. 22, a strong start for a platform that’s been in and out of courtrooms.

However, Kalshi’s volume still trails behind its larger, more established competitor Polymarket, which has surpassed $2.16 billion in total trading volume.

Polymarket saw $40 million in trades just in the first month of its presidential betting from January to February 2024, driven by global participation, as the platform operates without requiring U.S. traders or a know-your-customer process.

This distinction between the two platforms highlights their differing approaches: Kalshi’s regulatory compliance limits trading to U.S. nationals and permanent residents, while Polymarket, operating in the gray zone of offshore markets, attracts a broader, global user base.

Interestingly, both platforms show similar trends in election outcome predictions. On Polymarket, Donald Trump currently holds a 64% chance of winning, while Kamala Harris trails with 36%.

Kalshi shows a similar trend, though with slightly different margins — Trump leads with 59%, while Harris follows with 41%. Despite the differences in platform operations, the betting sentiment appears consistent across the board.

Kalshi, being the regulated platform, faces less risk of market manipulation accusations, which have often been directed at Polymarket.

Critics of Polymarket argue that its lack of KYC requirements opens the door to foreign interference and shadowy money pushing odds in certain directions.

In the face of all the criticism and noise, both platforms are thriving, each offering a unique snapshot of how people perceive the election’s outcome.

As the election draws nearer, these platforms will likely remain at the center of both market activity and regulatory debates, proving that prediction markets are not only alive but booming, even under scrutiny.

Trump’s crypto plans sound perfect on paper — but what’s the catch? Could Harris’ understated approach hold the key to a safer, smarter crypto future?

As the 2024 U.S. presidential race enters its final stages, both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are ramping up efforts to woo a growing but often overlooked group of voters — crypto voters.

Trump, with his newly launched World Liberty Financial (WLF) token and plans for a “Bitcoin (BTC) and Crypto Advisory Council,” has positioned himself as a vocal supporter of crypto and decentralized finance.

On the other hand, Vice President Harris has quietly begun outlining policies aimed at protecting crypto investors, particularly in Black communities, through her Opportunity Agenda.

Let’s dive deeper into what Trump and Harris are offering to the crypto community, how their policies stack up, and what it means for voters who are hoping to see clearer regulations—and maybe a little more digital coin in their pockets.

Trump’s crypto courtship

Donald Trump has transformed his stance on crypto in a way that speaks directly to a key group of voters, a calculated move to tap into the rising influence of the crypto community in America.

It all started in May when Trump’s campaign began accepting crypto donations, a notable change from his earlier skeptical views. This was followed by several strategic moves aimed at convincing the crypto community that he’s their candidate.

By June, Trump publicly threw his support behind Bitcoin miners, expressing his hope that the remaining Bitcoin would be mined “right here in America” – a key message for those concerned about the exodus of mining operations to countries like Russia and Kazakhstan.

But Trump didn’t stop there. His appearance at the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville at the end of July marked a crucial moment in his crypto campaign.

Standing before a packed room of crypto advocates, Trump not only promised to establish a national Bitcoin reserve if elected—an unprecedented move—but he also vowed to fire SEC Chairman Gary Gensler.

This promise, met with a standing ovation, struck a chord with crypto voters, many of whom see Gensler as an obstacle to the industry’s growth due to his firm stance on regulating digital assets like stocks and bonds.

The creation of a national Bitcoin reserve, paired with his pledge to form a Bitcoin and Crypto Advisory Council, set him apart from his opponents, especially in a political arena where other candidates have remained cautious on crypto.

Beyond policy promises, Trump has also made highly visible gestures to show his support for crypto. During a campaign stop at Pubkey, a Bitcoin-themed bar in New York, Trump became the first former U.S. president to use cryptocurrency in a transaction, buying a dozen burgers using Bitcoin.

At the center of Trump’s crypto efforts lies his personal project, WLF, a DeFi platform launched in September 2024. Marketed as a crypto bank where users can borrow, lend, and invest, WLF is clearly designed to lure crypto voters by offering them something tangible.

The platform’s native token, WLFI, was introduced with much fanfare, aiming to raise $300 million at a valuation of $1.5 billion. Yet, the project has struggled to meet its ambitious goals, with only $12.9 million raised so far.

More controversial is the token allocation—Trump and his family are poised to receive 75% of the net protocol revenue, raising questions about transparency and how much of the project is for the benefit of its users versus the Trump family.

WLF claims to be apolitical, yet the timing and Trump’s heavy involvement make it clear that this is as much a political play as it is a financial one. The project’s roadmap includes bold promises, but its slow progress and the outsized financial benefits for the Trump family have sparked skepticism.

Still, Trump’s supporters view the project as part of his broader narrative of financial independence and American economic strength, tied neatly to his political messaging.

Harris’s cautious approach to crypto

While Trump has taken an aggressive and hands-on approach to wooing the crypto community, Kamala Harris has chosen a more measured path.

Harris, the current Vice President, has not made crypto a centerpiece of her campaign, but recent moves suggest she is aware of the growing importance of digital assets and their impact on voters.

The first real signs of Harris’ approach came during a roundtable event at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, where her senior campaign adviser, Brian Nelson, shed some light on her potential policies.

Nelson made it clear that Harris intends to support policies that allow emerging technologies like crypto to grow while ensuring they are adequately regulated. Though the message was vague, it marked the first public stance from Harris’ camp on the matter.

This careful dance became more apparent when Harris recently introduced her “Opportunity Agenda”, a broader economic plan aimed at improving financial inclusion.

One key aspect of this agenda is the protection of crypto investors, particularly Black Americans, a demographic where over 20% own or have owned digital assets.

Harris has promised to build a regulatory framework to ensure that the benefits of crypto can be enjoyed safely without the risks of fraud, volatility, or market manipulation.

However, while Harris has started laying out her views on paper, her direct engagement with the crypto community has been rocky at best.

A virtual town hall hosted by the ‘Crypto For Harris’ campaign was supposed to be a moment to rally support from the digital asset space, but the event fell flat.

Lacking interaction and with Harris herself notably absent, the town hall left prominent figures like Tyler Winklevoss and Jake Brukhman frustrated.

Winklevoss went as far as to call it a “clown show,” while Brukhman criticized the format for failing to capture the essence of a town hall—engagement and dialogue.

The event, instead, relied on pre-recorded speeches from political allies like Senators Gillibrand and Schiff, making it feel more like a lecture than a conversation.

Despite the misstep, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, a major Democratic figure, did his best to fill the gap, emerging as a surprise ally for crypto. Schumer promised that crypto is “here to stay no matter what” and pledged to push for sensible regulation before the end of the year.

Interestingly, Harris’ campaign has also received quiet support from notable crypto figures. Chris Larsen, the co-founder of Ripple (XRP), has donated over $1 million in XRP to Harris’ campaign, expressing confidence that she would bring a “more pragmatic approach and clear rules” to the crypto industry — something he believes is missing under the current administration led by SEC Chairman Gensler.

While Harris hasn’t gone as far as Trump in embracing crypto, she’s also made subtle moves to distance herself from the more anti-crypto voices within the Democratic Party, such as Senator Elizabeth Warren.

Her cautious approach might not generate standing ovations like Trump’s promises to fire Gensler or create a Bitcoin reserve, but it offers a path for crypto that leans toward stability and investor protection — appealing to voters who seek progress without the chaos.

What are the odds?

As the 2024 presidential race intensifies, the odds of each candidate winning have shifted dramatically in the past few days, and the crypto market’s bullish sentiment might be playing a role.

According to a popular betting contest on Polymarket, which has attracted over $2.06 billion in bets, Trump currently holds a 60.1% chance of victory, compared to Harris’ 39.8%.

This is a stark contrast to just a few weeks ago when the two were neck and neck at nearly 50% each. In fact, in mid-September, Harris was leading with a 52% edge over Trump’s 46%.

A lot has changed in the past few days, particularly in the crypto market. The newfound bullishness in digital assets, particularly Bitcoin, seems to be influencing voter sentiment.

As of Oct. 18, Bitcoin is trading just shy of $70,000, hovering around $68,700, its highest levels in months, reflecting the growing impact of the crypto market on political outcomes.

As we head closer to Election Day, the tides could shift again, depending on the performance of the crypto market and any last-minute developments from both campaigns. The coming days will be critical in defining both the race and the future of crypto policy in the U.S.