Bitcoin price analysis
Will Bitcoin Price Bottom at $50k Amid Growing Speculation of Fed Rate Cut?
Published
4 months agoon
By
adminBitcoin price correction eased on the weekend as the buyers found suitable support at the $60000 psychological level. This support, backed by the 200-day Exponential moving average, has sparked a temporary relief rally in the altcoin market. However, the overhead supply on the crypto market persists due to poor employment reports, geopolitical tension in the Middle East, and fear of recession. Will BTC witness prolonged correction for the rest of August?
Fed Rate Cut Speculations May Drive Market Reversal
This week, the cryptocurrency market witnessed a notable downfall attributed to a series of adverse developments affecting the broader market. The selling pressure was initiated by Bitcoin’s reversal from $70000 resistance and escalated further in mid-week following the geopolitical tension in the Middle East and the fear of recession.
The recent poor employment report has bolstered a dovish shift in the market, raising concerns about potential rate cuts in September. According to Nick Timiraos of The Wall Street Journal, these reports could force the Federal Reserve to adjust monetary policy for stabilizing the economy.
Financial giants Citigroup and JPMorgan expect the FED to cut interest rates in a series, starting with 50 bps in September, then another 50 bps in November, and a further 25 bps in December.
Citi and JPM now expect the Fed to cut rates by 50 bps in Sept, 50 bps in Nov, 25 in Dec.
(Will update this table later today as many of these are now likely getting redrafted.) https://t.co/nuPs9Lp1Kp
— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) August 2, 2024
Moreover, data from the CME Group shows a 78% probability of a 25 bps September cut and a 22% probability of a 50 bps cut, thus further adding to market sentiments toward impending rate cuts. Additionally, JPMorgan has estimated that the Fed would cut its benchmark rate to about 3%, signaling that rate cuts could continue until Q3 2025.
The anticipated cut would bolster the borrowing environment for banks and encourage investment in riskier assets such as cryptocurrencies. Thus, the BTC price could seek suitable support at major technical levels such as 200-day EMA and $50000.
Bitcoin Price Seeks Major Support From Flag Pattern
Over the past five months, the Bitcoin price forecast shows a sideways trend resonating within the two downsloping trendlines of the flag pattern. Theoretically, this chart pattern leads to a temporary consolidation for buyers to recuperate bullish momentum for the next leap.
Amid the market correction, the BTC price fell from the flag resistance at $70000 and plunged 14.84% to $59800. Consecutively, the market cap tumbled to $1.178 Trillion.
The recent $60000 breakdown may increase selling pressure and push Bitcoin 14.5% down to retest the flag support trendline at $51000. A bearish crossover between the 20-and-50 exponential moving average indicates that sellers are strengthening their grip on this asset.
However, the Bitcoin price could rebound from a lower trendline at $51000-$51000 and bolster a rally to regain the $60000 floor, followed by $70000.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
The CME Group provides probability data based on market expectations for interest rate changes. The percentages represent the likelihood of different rate cut scenarios occurring.
An interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve lowers the cost of borrowing, encouraging spending and investment by businesses and consumers.
The $51000 backed by flag pattern trendline acts as stands crucial support for BTC price
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Sahil Mahadik
Sahil is a dedicated full-time trader with over three years of experience in the financial markets. Armed with a strong grasp of technical analysis, he keeps a vigilant eye on the daily price movements of top assets and indices. Drawn by his fascination with financial instruments, Sahil enthusiastically embraced the emerging realm of cryptocurrency, where he continues to explore opportunities driven by his passion for trading
Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.
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Bitcoin price analysis
Historical Trend Hints Bitcoin Price Still 25% Away From November Peak
Published
2 weeks agoon
November 11, 2024By
adminThe cryptocurrency market maintained its bullish momentum during Monday’s U.S. market session, with Bitcoin price continuing to hit new highs. This recovery trend rally, backed by whale accumulation and increasing trading volume, accentuates the bull’s conviction for the prolonged uptrend. Has BTC reached its November peak, or is there room for further growth?
With crypto market today, the BTC price had traded at $81,586, with an intraday gain of 1.444%. According to Coingecko, the asset’s market cap surged to $1.62 Trillion, while the 24-hour trading volume wavers at $78.8 Billion.
Bitcoin Price Poised for Parabolic Growth with Critical Weekly Close
Historically, November has been a strong month for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, often delivering significant gains. According to Coinglass data, Bitcoin recorded a 450% surge in November 2013, followed by 53% in 2017 and 43% in 2020, solidifying its reputation as a bullish period.
On average, Bitcoin price prediction has recorded a 44% growth in November over the past decade. As of November 2024, the current price trajectory delivered a 17.78% surge but still trailed 25% behind average growth potential.
If history repeats, the BTC price could extend its recovery past the $1,00,000 psychological level.
BTC Exchange Outflows Surge as Investors Embrace HODLing
In a recent tweet, renowned analyst Ali Martinez highlights a substantial outflow of Bitcoins from crypto exchanges amid a recent rally. According to Glassnode data, 40,000 BTC ( worth approximately $3.28 billion) have been withdrawn from exchanges within the past week.
This significant outflow reflects a declining exchange balance, which could indicate increased long-term holding sentiment among investors. The BTC price rally backed aggressive accumulation trend bolstered the potential for a higher rally.
Over 40,000 #Bitcoin $BTC — worth about $3.28 billion — have been withdrawn from exchanges in the past week! pic.twitter.com/ZYSZ9Kt1ok
— Ali (@ali_charts) November 11, 2024
BTC Price Analysis Hints Major Breakout From Flag Pattern
Over the past seven months, the Bitcoin price witnessed a stubborn consolidation with the formation of a flag pattern. This sideways trend, resonating between two trendlines, typically benefits the market bulls to recuperate the bullish momentum.
Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 presidential election acted as a necessary catalyst for the coin price to give a massive breakout flag resistance. Since last, the coin price showed a significant rally from $67,813 to $82,350, registering a 21.4% growth.
If the pattern holds true, the BTC price could reach $1,02,000 high.
On the contrary, a Bitcoin price could soon witness an occasional pullback to replenish its buying pressure, potentially selling support at key daily EMAs 20 and 50.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
As of November 2024, Bitcoin has surged by 17.78%. However, it still trails 25% behind its historical average growth potential
The flag pattern formation, observed over the past seven months, typically signals a continuation of the bullish trend
The recent rally is backed by whale accumulation, increasing trading volumes, and significant exchange outflows
Sahil Mahadik
Sahil is a dedicated full-time trader with over three years of experience in the financial markets. Armed with a strong grasp of technical analysis, he keeps a vigilant eye on the daily price movements of top assets and indices. Drawn by his fascination with financial instruments, Sahil enthusiastically embraced the emerging realm of cryptocurrency, where he continues to explore opportunities driven by his passion for trading
Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.
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Bitcoin
Analyst Reveals Bitcoin’s ‘Chopsolidation’ Phase Nears End—Are New Highs in Sight?
Published
2 weeks agoon
November 6, 2024By
adminBitcoin market trend may be on the verge of a significant shift, according to a recent analysis shared by CryptoQuant analyst Percival.
Percival described Bitcoin’s current phase as “chopsolidation,” a term used to describe a period of minimal directional movement where price consolidation occurs without a clear trend.
This period, he suggests, may be drawing to a close, with an imminent market movement expected in the coming weeks. The Chopsolidations metric, as Percival notes, doesn’t predict the direction of Bitcoin’s next move.
Instead, it assesses the exhaustion level of the current trend, helping to determine whether Bitcoin’s price is due for a reversal or continuation. Percival’s analysis highlights that while there are indicators of strength at various points, the market remains divided on Bitcoin’s next direction.
So far, some investors believe that recent accumulation is sufficient to push Bitcoin past its all-time high, while others expect a more cautious upward movement or even a potential correction.
Assessing Bitcoin’s Support Levels And Potential Price Rebound
Percival’s analysis further points to two key periods in September and October where Bitcoin established notable support levels, marked by brief but significant price stability zones.
These areas, which he identified as orange zones on his chart (shared above), served as points where Bitcoin’s price “reloaded” — essentially, zones where demand was strong enough to halt price declines temporarily.
With the current price hovering near these support levels, Percival suggests that the market may find a new bottom if Bitcoin faces any short-term downward pressure. This support could create a foundation for upward movement in the weeks ahead.
The Chopsolidations indicator, according to the CryptoQuant analyst’s breakdown, is showing signs of readiness for a strong trend based on weekly and monthly readings.
Although he did not specify a particular directional bias, he noted that the current market strength could be enough to drive Bitcoin’s price upwards if additional demand or a favorable macroeconomic environment aligns with market sentiment.
This trend could play out over the short term, where sufficient market activity might lift Bitcoin’s price.
Bitcoin Continuous Struggle To Make A Major Move
So far, Bitcoin’s price has continued to face a struggle to make a significant move, especially to the upside. Instead, the asset has seen a form of calmness in volatility following its recent decline below the $70,000 price mark.
Particularly, at the time of writing, the asset currently trades for $68,721—a price region BTC has remained quite stable for the past 3 days since its most recent decline.
Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
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Dormant Bitcoin Wallet From 2012 Awakens, Moving Millions—BTC Price To Dip?
Published
3 weeks agoon
October 30, 2024By
adminA Bitcoin wallet containing around 749 BTC, equivalent to roughly $53.2 million, has been reactivated after nearly 12 years of inactivity.
This sudden move in funds was detected in the early hours of Tuesday, as blockchain tracking platforms such as Mempool and Whale Alert recorded a transfer of approximately 159.2 BTC, valued at $11.3 million, from this long-dormant wallet.
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The last known transaction from this address was back in November 2012, when Bitcoin’s price was around $10, making the wallet’s balance worth below $9,000.
💤 💤 💤 💤 💤 💤 A dormant address containing 749 #BTC (53,227,433 USD) has just been activated after 12.0 years (worth 7,974 USD in 2012)!https://t.co/5SzBYeKlk1
— Whale Alert (@whale_alert) October 29, 2024
Details Of The Moved Millions
Data from on-chain monitoring platform Mempool, shows that the recent transaction was conducted at 7:28 a.m. UTC. Of the 159.2 BTC transferred, about 124.2 BTC, or $8.8 million, was sent back to the sender’s address, labeled as “change” by blockchain analytics firm Blockchair.
The remaining 35 BTC, or $2.4 million, was transferred to an unknown address. Details surrounding the wallet’s owner and their intentions remain unidentified, leaving the crypto community speculating on the motive behind the transaction and the identity of the long-term Bitcoin holder.
However, the timing of the awakening of this dormant wallet is quite noteworthy. It comes at a time when Bitcoin has been seeing consistent increases in price in recent weeks. Particularly, the asset has finally broken above the $70,000 resistance with a current trading price of $72,638 up by 5.3% in the past day.
Notably, movements from long-inactive wallets have historically generated intrigue, with crypto enthusiasts theorizing that these could be the actions of early adopters, lost-and-found wallets, or entities choosing strategic timing to engage with the market.
Although the reason behind this wallet move of its BTC isn’t certain, reactivating wallets like this one especially as Bitcoin continues to surge in price might indicate shifts in holders’ strategies, driven by favorable market conditions or other personal financial objectives.
Bitcoin Onchain Performance
Awakening of wallet aside, Bitcoin has been seeing quite an interesting and positive trend behind the scenes, especially regarding on-chain metrics. So far, analysts have highlighted several BTC metrics that are now flashing a positive momentum for the asset, suggesting further price increases.
For instance, yesterday, a CryptoQuant analyst known as Darkfost disclosed that Bitcoin hash ribbons have flashed a buy signal. Darkfost noted:
Historically, purchasing Bitcoin during a Hash Ribbons signal has aligned with strong long-term returns. Recently, we saw another signal following the major one this past summer.
Another metric suggesting price increase for Bitcoin highlighted by a CryptoQuant analyst named BinhDang is the Stablecoin Supply Ratio Oscillator (SSRO). According to BinhDang in a recent post, this metric has bottomed to levels not seen in 2022. A move that preceded a rally.
Notably, the Stablecoin Supply Ratio Oscillator provides insights into Bitcoin market demand by analyzing Bitcoin’s market cap against that of major stablecoins.
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The oscillator measures the extent to which stablecoins, commonly used for Bitcoin purchases, flow into Bitcoin and thus signal purchasing interest. A low value of the metric signals more stablecoins are being converted to Bitcoin, therefore suggesting increasing demand.
Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
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