Bitcoin price analysis
Will Bitcoin Price Bottom at $50k Amid Growing Speculation of Fed Rate Cut?
Published
2 months agoon
By
adminBitcoin price correction eased on the weekend as the buyers found suitable support at the $60000 psychological level. This support, backed by the 200-day Exponential moving average, has sparked a temporary relief rally in the altcoin market. However, the overhead supply on the crypto market persists due to poor employment reports, geopolitical tension in the Middle East, and fear of recession. Will BTC witness prolonged correction for the rest of August?
Fed Rate Cut Speculations May Drive Market Reversal
This week, the cryptocurrency market witnessed a notable downfall attributed to a series of adverse developments affecting the broader market. The selling pressure was initiated by Bitcoin’s reversal from $70000 resistance and escalated further in mid-week following the geopolitical tension in the Middle East and the fear of recession.
The recent poor employment report has bolstered a dovish shift in the market, raising concerns about potential rate cuts in September. According to Nick Timiraos of The Wall Street Journal, these reports could force the Federal Reserve to adjust monetary policy for stabilizing the economy.
Financial giants Citigroup and JPMorgan expect the FED to cut interest rates in a series, starting with 50 bps in September, then another 50 bps in November, and a further 25 bps in December.
Citi and JPM now expect the Fed to cut rates by 50 bps in Sept, 50 bps in Nov, 25 in Dec.
(Will update this table later today as many of these are now likely getting redrafted.) https://t.co/nuPs9Lp1Kp
— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) August 2, 2024
Moreover, data from the CME Group shows a 78% probability of a 25 bps September cut and a 22% probability of a 50 bps cut, thus further adding to market sentiments toward impending rate cuts. Additionally, JPMorgan has estimated that the Fed would cut its benchmark rate to about 3%, signaling that rate cuts could continue until Q3 2025.
The anticipated cut would bolster the borrowing environment for banks and encourage investment in riskier assets such as cryptocurrencies. Thus, the BTC price could seek suitable support at major technical levels such as 200-day EMA and $50000.
Bitcoin Price Seeks Major Support From Flag Pattern
Over the past five months, the Bitcoin price forecast shows a sideways trend resonating within the two downsloping trendlines of the flag pattern. Theoretically, this chart pattern leads to a temporary consolidation for buyers to recuperate bullish momentum for the next leap.
Amid the market correction, the BTC price fell from the flag resistance at $70000 and plunged 14.84% to $59800. Consecutively, the market cap tumbled to $1.178 Trillion.
The recent $60000 breakdown may increase selling pressure and push Bitcoin 14.5% down to retest the flag support trendline at $51000. A bearish crossover between the 20-and-50 exponential moving average indicates that sellers are strengthening their grip on this asset.
However, the Bitcoin price could rebound from a lower trendline at $51000-$51000 and bolster a rally to regain the $60000 floor, followed by $70000.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
The CME Group provides probability data based on market expectations for interest rate changes. The percentages represent the likelihood of different rate cut scenarios occurring.
An interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve lowers the cost of borrowing, encouraging spending and investment by businesses and consumers.
The $51000 backed by flag pattern trendline acts as stands crucial support for BTC price
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Sahil Mahadik
Sahil is a dedicated full-time trader with over three years of experience in the financial markets. Armed with a strong grasp of technical analysis, he keeps a vigilant eye on the daily price movements of top assets and indices. Drawn by his fascination with financial instruments, Sahil enthusiastically embraced the emerging realm of cryptocurrency, where he continues to explore opportunities driven by his passion for trading
Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.
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Bitcoin price analysis
Bitcoin Price $60K Breakout Meets Major Accumulation; Is ATH Next Stop?
Published
4 days agoon
September 15, 2024By
adminBitcoin Price jumped 0.34% during the Sunday trading session, showcasing its sustainability above the $60000 psychological level. The bullish momentum is fueled by whale/institution accumulation and market anticipation of a 0.5% interest rate cut in the September FOMC meeting.
Will Whale Accumulation Drive Bitcoin Price to New ATH?
According to on-chain data tracker Spotonchain, a giant whale has been actively accumulating Bitcoin since August 29th. So far, the large holder has bought around 3,933 BTC (worth $234 Million) from the crypto exchange Binance with the latest withdrawal occurring earlier today at an approximate price of $59,591 per BTC.
Currently, this whale holds 10,491 BTC (valued at approximately $630 million). Typically, such large transactions boast market confidence, as a price rally follows whales/smart money buying.
However, the same whale allegedly dumped 7,790 BTC (around $467 million) around June 27 and July 8, 2024, to Binance at ~$59,953, contributing to a sharp 14% decrease in Bitcoin price.
This giant whale keeps withdrawing $BTC from Binance as #Bitcoin broke $60K!
Since Aug 29, the whale has withdrawn a net 3,933 $BTC ($234M) from #Binance at ~$59,591, with the latest withdrawal only 4 hours ago.
Note that this accumulating wave came after the whale had… https://t.co/GBhH2gDT1V pic.twitter.com/yQ6gnqvjpS
— Spot On Chain (@spotonchain) September 15, 2024
Anyhow, the business intelligence company Microstrategy has recently increased its Bitcoin holding by acquiring 18,300 BTC worth $1.11 billion. This purchase brings the company’s total Bitcoin holdings to 244,800 BTC, as Executive Chairman Michael Saylor revealed.
Along with whale/institutional buying, the Bitcoin price rally to $60000 is more likely driven by market anticipation of the September rate cut.
Following the recent cooling of US CPI and PPI inflation figures, speculation is rising over a potential 50 bps rate cut by the US Fed at the upcoming FOMC meeting. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 50% probability of a 0.5% rate cut by the US Federal Reserve and the same bet for a 0.25% rate cut.
Typically, a rate cut would allow banks to borrow money more easily for operations, boosting capital flow in the market and encouraging increased investment in riskier assets like cryptocurrency.
BTC Price Poised For Major Breakout
The Bitcoin price at $60174 is just 1% away from a major breakout of the downsloping trendline. The dynamic resistance intact since late July drives the current correction trend, and a potential breakout will boost the bullish momentum.
If the buyers flip overhead resistance into potential support, the BTC price could target $68000, followed by an all-time high resistance of around $73777.
On the contrary note, the Bitcoin price prediction shows a notable resistance at the $65800 mark as over 6.84 Million addresses hold approximately 3.1M BTC.
Therefore, if the potential rebound faces supply pressure at this resistance, the sellers could drive an extended consolation phase for Bitcoin.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
The rally is being fueled by whale and institutional accumulation, along with market anticipation of a 0.5% interest rate cut at the upcoming September FOMC meeting.
The possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut has boosted market confidence, encouraging increased investment in riskier assets like Bitcoin
Bitcoin faces key resistance levels at $65,800, where 6.84 million addresses hold 3.1 million BTC,
Sahil Mahadik
Sahil is a dedicated full-time trader with over three years of experience in the financial markets. Armed with a strong grasp of technical analysis, he keeps a vigilant eye on the daily price movements of top assets and indices. Drawn by his fascination with financial instruments, Sahil enthusiastically embraced the emerging realm of cryptocurrency, where he continues to explore opportunities driven by his passion for trading
Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.
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Bitcoin price analysis
Can US CPI Help Bitcoin Price Recovery After Debate Led Slump?
Published
1 week agoon
September 11, 2024By
adminBitcoin (BTC) price, US and Asian markets saw a risk-off conditions as they collapsed after the Trump and Harris debate on September 10. With the US CPI print, Wednesday could see recovery in BTC.
Bitcoin Price Slides After Trump-Harris Debate
The US presidential election debates saw Donald Trump and Kamala Harris butt heads on September 10. Many suggest that Harris took a lead against Trump with her calm and read-set-go attitude. Polymarket data shows that bettors are in favor of Harris winning the debate with her odds reaching 98% as of September 11. On Tuesday, Bitcoin price closed the daily candlestick with a 1.07% gain, but slid down to $56,000 on Wednesday’s early Asian session.
Bitcoin was not the only risk-on asset to collapse after the Trump-Harris Debate, US Crude Oil dropped 5% and the HangSeng Index dropped 177 points on September 10.
Regardless, investors are still wondering – Who won the debate? And how will that impact crypto markets and Bitcoin price? While the Trump-Harris debate could have provided short-term volatility, the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) will also play a critical role in influencing BTC bias.
Here’s Why This US CPI is Pivotal For BTC Price
The forecast for the headline inflation is 2.7%, which is a reduction from the previous month’s 2.9%. However, the consensus stands at 2.6%. Based on these numbers and the actual inflation, there are multiple scenarios how this macroeconomic event could impact BTC price.
- Inflation lower than expectations: In this case, it might add fuel to the September 18 Fed rate cut decision and cause risk-on assets like Bitcoin to rally.
- Inflation higher than expectations: This outlook could dampen the optimism and temper expectations of a rally in Bitcoin price to $60,000 or higher.
- Inflation meets expectations: The crypto markets could rally in anticipation of the Fed rate cut decision on September 18.
Based on the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 100% chance that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates come September 18. The odds of a 25 basis point rate cut stands at 71%, but the upcoming US CPI print will clear the doubts over the size of the rate cuts.
BTC Price Analysis: Is 60K to 70K Possible Before September Ends?
Bitcoin’s daily chart shows a clear downtrend with a string of lower highs and lower lows. The most recent swing low formed on September 6 could be a higher low that kick-starts a recovery rally to key levels like $60,000 or $70,000. However, this outlook is reliant on today’s US CPI print.
From a daily perspective, BTC needs to set up a higher high above $65,000 to ensure the end of the six-month down trending consolidation. If successful, Bitcoin price prediction shows a revisit of the all-time high of $73,805 is likely. The timeline for the above forecast is the fourth quarter, which has been a good time to be bullish based on historical data.
On the flipside, if the US CPI print comes in hotter than expectations, the Fed could reduce or alter their rate cut schedule, causing markets to crash. In such a case, Bitcoin price wouldn’t attempt to overcome the $65,000 hurdle, instead crash to the weekly support zone, extending from $50,701 to $52,271.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Bitcoin price slid after the debate, but the upcoming US CPI print could influence a recovery.
Depending on the inflation rate, Bitcoin price could rally, crash, or stabilize.
The forecast is 2.7% inflation, which could lead to a Fed rate cut and a potential Bitcoin price rally.
Akash Girimath
Akash Girimath, an engineer by training, has developed a deep fascination with the complexities of cryptocurrency markets. As a senior reporter and analyst, he specializes in crypto analysis and contributes his expertise to notable platforms such as AMBCrypto and FXStreet. In addition to his analytical work, Akash actively trades cryptocurrencies and manages a small crypto fund for friends and family. His role involves providing insightful market analysis and keeping readers informed about the latest trends in the crypto world. Follow Him on Youtube , X and LInkedIn
Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.
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Bitcoin price analysis
Will Bitcoin Price Repeat Its Historic 400-Day Post-Halving Rally?
Published
3 weeks agoon
September 1, 2024By
adminThe Bitcoin price dipped 1.5% to $58000 during the Sunday trading session. For the past few days, the consolidation of the BTC price below $60000 has accelerated uncertainty in the crypto market. However, despite the fear of recession mounting and substantial outflow from BTC ETFs, the sellers struggle to drive the price lower, indicating buyers’ active accumulation. Is an upward surge imminent?
Bitcoin Price Set for 12% Dip Before a Major Breakout
Since the fourth Bitcoin Halving on April 19th, the BTC price has largely moved sideways, facing difficulties in consistently maintaining a level above $72,000. Now, 135 days post-halving, investors appear to have dwindling enthusiasm for the anticipated post-event rally.
However, a comparative analysis of the Bitcoin price trends following the halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020 suggests a potential rally could occur within 400 days after the halving.
According to the chart shared by an X (formerly known as Twitter) user, @degengambleh, this recurring pattern indicates that significant price surges have consistently followed Bitcoin halvings, suggesting a similar outcome may be on the horizon for 2024.
Idk about you, but I’m not fucking leaving
— Zer0 🕊️ (@degengambleh) August 31, 2024
By the press time, Bitcoin price trades at $58165 while boosting a market cap of $1.148 Trillion. With the current negative trend, the asset could plunge 12% to retest the combined support of $50000 and Flag pattern support.
This chart setup consists of two downsloping trendlines driving a temporary counter-trend move for buyers to recuperate the bullish momentum. Thus, the potential dip could renew the bullish momentum for Bitcoin price prediction and bolster an espace from the current consolidation with a flag breakout.
The post-breakout rally could drive the BTC price to $83450.
Additionally, data from Santiment analytics highlights a notable accumulation trend among Bitcoin whales. Addresses holding between 100,000 and 1,000,000 BTC have been actively increasing their holdings since late July.
The yellow line in the chart tracks this metric, which now stands at approximately 702,790 BTC, indicating that major investors are confident in potential future price gains for this asset.
However, the daily EMAs (20, 50, 100, and 200) nearing a bearish crossover indicate the current consolidation could extend a bit further.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Historically, Bitcoin has shown significant price rallies within 400-500 days following each halving event, often leading to new all-time highs
The potential 12% dip could see Bitcoin retest the major support level around $50,000, which aligns with the bull flag pattern
Data from Santiment analytics shows that Bitcoin whales, specifically addresses holding between 100,000 and 1,000,000 BTC, have been increasing their holdings since late July.
Sahil Mahadik
Sahil is a dedicated full-time trader with over three years of experience in the financial markets. Armed with a strong grasp of technical analysis, he keeps a vigilant eye on the daily price movements of top assets and indices. Drawn by his fascination with financial instruments, Sahil enthusiastically embraced the emerging realm of cryptocurrency, where he continues to explore opportunities driven by his passion for trading
Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.
Source link
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