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Bitcoin price analysis

Will Bitcoin Price Repeat Its Historic 400-Day Post-Halving Rally?

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3 months ago

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The Bitcoin price dipped 1.5% to $58000 during the Sunday trading session. For the past few days, the consolidation of the BTC price below $60000 has accelerated uncertainty in the crypto market. However, despite the fear of recession mounting and substantial outflow from BTC ETFs, the sellers struggle to drive the price lower, indicating buyers’ active accumulation. Is an upward surge imminent?

Bitcoin Price Set for 12% Dip Before a Major Breakout

Since the fourth Bitcoin Halving on April 19th, the BTC price has largely moved sideways, facing difficulties in consistently maintaining a level above $72,000. Now, 135 days post-halving, investors appear to have dwindling enthusiasm for the anticipated post-event rally.

However, a comparative analysis of the Bitcoin price trends following the halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020 suggests a potential rally could occur within 400 days after the halving. 

According to the chart shared by an X (formerly known as Twitter) user, @degengambleh, this recurring pattern indicates that significant price surges have consistently followed Bitcoin halvings, suggesting a similar outcome may be on the horizon for 2024.

By the press time, Bitcoin price trades at $58165 while boosting a market cap of $1.148 Trillion. With the current negative trend, the asset could plunge 12% to retest the combined support of $50000 and Flag pattern support.

This chart setup consists of two downsloping trendlines driving a temporary counter-trend move for buyers to recuperate the bullish momentum. Thus, the potential dip could renew the bullish momentum for Bitcoin price prediction and bolster an espace from the current consolidation with a flag breakout.

The post-breakout rally could drive the BTC price to $83450.

Bitcoin (BTC) priceBitcoin (BTC) price
BTC/USDT – 1d Chart

Additionally, data from Santiment analytics highlights a notable accumulation trend among Bitcoin whales. Addresses holding between 100,000 and 1,000,000 BTC have been actively increasing their holdings since late July. 

The yellow line in the chart tracks this metric, which now stands at approximately 702,790 BTC, indicating that major investors are confident in potential future price gains for this asset.

BTC Supply DistributionBTC Supply Distribution
BTC Supply Distribution | Santiment

However, the daily EMAs (20, 50, 100, and 200) nearing a bearish crossover indicate the current consolidation could extend a bit further. 

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Historically, Bitcoin has shown significant price rallies within 400-500 days following each halving event, often leading to new all-time highs

The potential 12% dip could see Bitcoin retest the major support level around $50,000, which aligns with the bull flag pattern

Data from Santiment analytics shows that Bitcoin whales, specifically addresses holding between 100,000 and 1,000,000 BTC, have been increasing their holdings since late July.

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Sahil Mahadik

Sahil is a dedicated full-time trader with over three years of experience in the financial markets. Armed with a strong grasp of technical analysis, he keeps a vigilant eye on the daily price movements of top assets and indices. Drawn by his fascination with financial instruments, Sahil enthusiastically embraced the emerging realm of cryptocurrency, where he continues to explore opportunities driven by his passion for trading

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.





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Bitcoin price analysis

Historical Trend Hints Bitcoin Price Still 25% Away From November Peak

Published

2 weeks ago

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November 11, 2024

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The cryptocurrency market maintained its bullish momentum during Monday’s U.S. market session, with Bitcoin price continuing to hit new highs. This recovery trend rally, backed by whale accumulation and increasing trading volume, accentuates the bull’s conviction for the prolonged uptrend. Has BTC reached its November peak, or is there room for further growth?

With crypto market today, the BTC price had traded at $81,586, with an intraday gain of 1.444%. According to Coingecko, the asset’s market cap surged to $1.62 Trillion, while the 24-hour trading volume wavers at $78.8 Billion.

Bitcoin Price Poised for Parabolic Growth with Critical Weekly Close

Historically, November has been a strong month for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, often delivering significant gains. According to Coinglass data, Bitcoin recorded a 450% surge in November 2013, followed by 53% in 2017 and 43% in 2020, solidifying its reputation as a bullish period.

On average, Bitcoin price prediction has recorded a 44% growth in November over the past decade. As of November 2024, the current price trajectory delivered a 17.78% surge but still trailed 25% behind average growth potential.

If history repeats, the BTC price could extend its recovery past the $1,00,000 psychological level.

BTCBTC
Bitcoin Monthly returns| Coinglass

BTC Exchange Outflows Surge as Investors Embrace HODLing

In a recent tweet, renowned analyst Ali Martinez highlights a substantial outflow of Bitcoins from crypto exchanges amid a recent rally. According to Glassnode data, 40,000 BTC ( worth approximately $3.28 billion) have been withdrawn from exchanges within the past week.

This significant outflow reflects a declining exchange balance, which could indicate increased long-term holding sentiment among investors. The BTC price rally backed aggressive accumulation trend bolstered the potential for a higher rally.

BTC Price Analysis Hints Major Breakout From Flag Pattern

Over the past seven months, the Bitcoin price witnessed a stubborn consolidation with the formation of a flag pattern. This sideways trend, resonating between two trendlines, typically benefits the market bulls to recuperate the bullish momentum.

Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 presidential election acted as a necessary catalyst for the coin price to give a massive breakout flag resistance. Since last, the coin price showed a significant rally from $67,813 to $82,350, registering a 21.4% growth.

If the pattern holds true, the BTC price could reach $1,02,000 high.

Bitcoin PriceBitcoin Price
BTC/USD -1d Chart

On the contrary, a Bitcoin price could soon witness an occasional pullback to replenish its buying pressure, potentially selling support at key daily EMAs 20 and 50.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

As of November 2024, Bitcoin has surged by 17.78%. However, it still trails 25% behind its historical average growth potential

The flag pattern formation, observed over the past seven months, typically signals a continuation of the bullish trend

The recent rally is backed by whale accumulation, increasing trading volumes, and significant exchange outflows

✓ Share:

Sahil Mahadik

Sahil is a dedicated full-time trader with over three years of experience in the financial markets. Armed with a strong grasp of technical analysis, he keeps a vigilant eye on the daily price movements of top assets and indices. Drawn by his fascination with financial instruments, Sahil enthusiastically embraced the emerging realm of cryptocurrency, where he continues to explore opportunities driven by his passion for trading

Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.





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Analyst Reveals Bitcoin’s ‘Chopsolidation’ Phase Nears End—Are New Highs in Sight?

Published

2 weeks ago

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November 6, 2024

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Bitcoin market trend may be on the verge of a significant shift, according to a recent analysis shared by CryptoQuant analyst Percival.

Percival described Bitcoin’s current phase as “chopsolidation,” a term used to describe a period of minimal directional movement where price consolidation occurs without a clear trend.

This period, he suggests, may be drawing to a close, with an imminent market movement expected in the coming weeks. The Chopsolidations metric, as Percival notes, doesn’t predict the direction of Bitcoin’s next move.

Instead, it assesses the exhaustion level of the current trend, helping to determine whether Bitcoin’s price is due for a reversal or continuation. Percival’s analysis highlights that while there are indicators of strength at various points, the market remains divided on Bitcoin’s next direction.

So far, some investors believe that recent accumulation is sufficient to push Bitcoin past its all-time high, while others expect a more cautious upward movement or even a potential correction.

Assessing Bitcoin’s Support Levels And Potential Price Rebound

Percival’s analysis further points to two key periods in September and October where Bitcoin established notable support levels, marked by brief but significant price stability zones.

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart.

These areas, which he identified as orange zones on his chart (shared above), served as points where Bitcoin’s price “reloaded” — essentially, zones where demand was strong enough to halt price declines temporarily.

With the current price hovering near these support levels, Percival suggests that the market may find a new bottom if Bitcoin faces any short-term downward pressure. This support could create a foundation for upward movement in the weeks ahead.

The Chopsolidations indicator, according to the CryptoQuant analyst’s breakdown, is showing signs of readiness for a strong trend based on weekly and monthly readings.

Although he did not specify a particular directional bias, he noted that the current market strength could be enough to drive Bitcoin’s price upwards if additional demand or a favorable macroeconomic environment aligns with market sentiment.

This trend could play out over the short term, where sufficient market activity might lift Bitcoin’s price.

Bitcoin Continuous Struggle To Make A Major Move

So far, Bitcoin’s price has continued to face a struggle to make a significant move, especially to the upside. Instead, the asset has seen a form of calmness in volatility following its recent decline below the $70,000 price mark.

Particularly, at the time of writing, the asset currently trades for $68,721—a price region BTC has remained quite stable for the past 3 days since its most recent decline.

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart on TradingView

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView



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Dormant Bitcoin Wallet From 2012 Awakens, Moving Millions—BTC Price To Dip?

Published

3 weeks ago

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October 30, 2024

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Este artículo también está disponible en español.

A Bitcoin wallet containing around 749 BTC, equivalent to roughly $53.2 million, has been reactivated after nearly 12 years of inactivity.

This sudden move in funds was detected in the early hours of Tuesday, as blockchain tracking platforms such as Mempool and Whale Alert recorded a transfer of approximately 159.2 BTC, valued at $11.3 million, from this long-dormant wallet.

The last known transaction from this address was back in November 2012, when Bitcoin’s price was around $10, making the wallet’s balance worth below $9,000.

Details Of The Moved Millions

Data from on-chain monitoring platform Mempool, shows that the recent transaction was conducted at 7:28 a.m. UTC. Of the 159.2 BTC transferred, about 124.2 BTC, or $8.8 million, was sent back to the sender’s address, labeled as “change” by blockchain analytics firm Blockchair.

The remaining 35 BTC, or $2.4 million, was transferred to an unknown address. Details surrounding the wallet’s owner and their intentions remain unidentified, leaving the crypto community speculating on the motive behind the transaction and the identity of the long-term Bitcoin holder.

However, the timing of the awakening of this dormant wallet is quite noteworthy. It comes at a time when Bitcoin has been seeing consistent increases in price in recent weeks. Particularly, the asset has finally broken above the $70,000 resistance with a current trading price of $72,638 up by 5.3% in the past day.

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart on TradingView
BTC price is moving upwards on the 2-hour chart. Source: BTC/USDT on TradingView.com

Notably, movements from long-inactive wallets have historically generated intrigue, with crypto enthusiasts theorizing that these could be the actions of early adopters, lost-and-found wallets, or entities choosing strategic timing to engage with the market.

Although the reason behind this wallet move of its BTC isn’t certain, reactivating wallets like this one especially as Bitcoin continues to surge in price might indicate shifts in holders’ strategies, driven by favorable market conditions or other personal financial objectives.

Bitcoin Onchain Performance

Awakening of wallet aside, Bitcoin has been seeing quite an interesting and positive trend behind the scenes, especially regarding on-chain metrics. So far, analysts have highlighted several BTC metrics that are now flashing a positive momentum for the asset, suggesting further price increases.

For instance, yesterday, a CryptoQuant analyst known as Darkfost disclosed that Bitcoin hash ribbons have flashed a buy signal. Darkfost noted:

Historically, purchasing Bitcoin during a Hash Ribbons signal has aligned with strong long-term returns. Recently, we saw another signal following the major one this past summer.

Another metric suggesting price increase for Bitcoin highlighted by a CryptoQuant analyst named BinhDang is the Stablecoin Supply Ratio Oscillator (SSRO). According to BinhDang in a recent post, this metric has bottomed to levels not seen in 2022. A move that preceded a rally.

Notably, the Stablecoin Supply Ratio Oscillator provides insights into Bitcoin market demand by analyzing Bitcoin’s market cap against that of major stablecoins.

The oscillator measures the extent to which stablecoins, commonly used for Bitcoin purchases, flow into Bitcoin and thus signal purchasing interest. A low value of the metric signals more stablecoins are being converted to Bitcoin, therefore suggesting increasing demand.

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView





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