Bitcoin price
Will Bitcoin Price Repeat Its Q4 Rally Pattern After a Bullish September?
Bitcoin price shows a modest loss of 0.13% during Sunday trading, currently trading at $65789. If the monthly candle closes around the aforementioned value, September 2024 would record around 15% growth. The historical shows this recovery trend in this month is rare, but if happening it signals the potential growth in Q4.
Is Bitcoin Price Poised to Repeat Its Q4 Rally After a September Upswing
According to the Coinglass data, the Bitcoin price trades at $65818 while the market cap holds at $1.3 Trillion. If the monthly candle closes around $65800, September 2024 would record an 11.5%-15% growth.
Since 2013, Bitcoin has experienced a September positive trend only thrice scenarios, each acting as a precursor of the significant rally to 2024. If history is an indicator, the BTC price could witness a prolonged recovery in Quarter 4, potentially pushing the asset past All time high of $73,750.
ETFs are heating up in the cryptocurrency market, with spot Bitcoin ETFs witnessing substantial inflows last week. On Friday alone, Bitcoin recorded a remarkable $494.4 million in net inflows, according to Sosolvaue data.
Over the weeks, the spot Bitcoin ETFs witnessed a weekly inflow of +$1.1B, indicating growing institutional interest. Moreover, the spot ETH ETH recorded a $85 million weekly info. This inflow is a positive sign for the market, potentially indicating rising confidence in digital assets.
BTC Eyes 25% Rally as Bull Flag Pattern Signals Breakout
This week, the Bitcoin price prediction recorded a substantial jump from $60800 to $65910, registering a 5% This upswing assisted the price to extend V-shaped in the daily chart, reflecting a sudden flip in market sentiment.
With sustained buying, the BTC price surged 3% before challenging the resistance trendline of a bull-flag pattern. Theoretically, the chart setup drives a temporary counter-trend move before providing a deceive breakout.
An upside breakout will accelerate the bullish momentum and drive a rally to $85000, accounting for 25% potential growth.
On a contrary note, if the overhead supply from the resistance trendline persists, the Bitcoin price could spark another reversal.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Bitcoin ETFs recorded strong institutional demand last week, with over $1.1 billion in net inflows
Historically, Bitcoin has posted substantial Q4 gains following positive September closes, as seen in 2017, 2020, and 2021. If this pattern repeats, Bitcoin could see a major rally, potentially surpassing its all-time high of $73,750 in Q4 2024.
A bull-flag pattern on the Bitcoin chart suggests a potential upside breakout. If this occurs, Bitcoin could rally up to 25%, driving the price to around $85,000.
Sahil Mahadik
Sahil is a dedicated full-time trader with over three years of experience in the financial markets. Armed with a strong grasp of technical analysis, he keeps a vigilant eye on the daily price movements of top assets and indices. Drawn by his fascination with financial instruments, Sahil enthusiastically embraced the emerging realm of cryptocurrency, where he continues to explore opportunities driven by his passion for trading
Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.
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With Bitcoin now making six-figure territory feel normal and higher prices a seeming inevitability, the analysis of key on-chain data provides valuable insights into the underlying health of the market. By understanding these metrics, investors can better anticipate price movements and prepare for potential market peaks or even any upcoming retracements.
Terminal Price
The Terminal Price metric, which incorporates the Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) while factoring in Bitcoin’s supply, has historically been a reliable indicator for predicting Bitcoin cycle peaks. Coin Days Destroyed measures the velocity of coins being transferred, considering both the holding duration and the quantity of Bitcoin moved.
Currently, the terminal price has surpassed $185,000 and is likely to rise toward $200,000 as the cycle progresses. With Bitcoin already breaking $100,000, this suggests we may still have several months of positive price action ahead.
Puell Multiple
The Puell Multiple evaluates daily miner revenue (in USD) relative to its 365-day moving average. After the halving event, miners experienced a sharp drop in revenue, creating a period of consolidation.
Now, the Puell Multiple has climbed back above 1, signaling a return to profitability for miners. Historically, surpassing this threshold has indicated the later stages of a bull cycle, often marked by exponential price rallies. A similar pattern was observed during all previous bull runs.
MVRV Z-Score
The MVRV Z-Score measures the market value relative to the realized value (average cost basis of Bitcoin holders). Standardized into a Z-Score to account for the asset’s volatility, it’s been highly accurate in identifying cycle peaks and bottoms.
Currently, Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score remains below the overheated red zone with a value of around 3.00, signaling that there’s still room for growth. While diminishing peaks have been a trend in recent cycles, the Z-Score suggests that the market is far from reaching a euphoric top.
Active Address Sentiment
This metric tracks the 28-day percentage change in active network addresses alongside the price change over the same period. When price growth outpaces network activity, it suggests the market may be short-term overbought, as the positive price action may not be sustainable given network utilization.
Recent data shows a slight cooling after Bitcoin’s rapid climb from $50,000 to $100,000, indicating a healthy consolidation period. This pause is likely setting the stage for sustained long-term growth and does not indicate we should be medium to long-term bearish.
Spent Output Profit Ratio
The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) measures realized profits from Bitcoin transactions. Recent data shows an uptick in profit-taking, potentially indicating we are entering the latter stages of the cycle.
One caveat to consider is the growing use of Bitcoin ETFs and derivative products. Investors may be shifting from self-custody to ETFs for ease of use and tax advantages, which could influence SOPR values.
Value Days Destroyed
Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple expands on CDD by weighting larger, long-term holders. When this metric enters the overheated red zone, it often signals major price peaks as the market’s largest and most experienced participants begin cashing out.
While Bitcoin’s current VDD levels indicate a slightly overheated market, history suggests it could sustain this range for months before a peak. For example, in 2017, VDD indicated overbought conditions nearly a year before the cycle’s top.
Conclusion
Taken together, these metrics suggest that Bitcoin is entering the latter stages of its bull market. While some indicators point to short-term cooling or slight overextension, most highlight substantial remaining upside throughout 2025. Key resistance levels for this cycle may emerge between $150,000 and $200,000, with metrics like SOPR and VDD providing clearer signals as we approach the peak.
For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here: What’s Happening On-chain: Bitcoin Update
Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.
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The Bitcoin price has dropped below the $100,000 psychological level and is now holding between the $96,000 and $98,000 range. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez provided insights into why Bitcoin could be holding well within this range.
Why The Bitcoin Price Is Holding Steady Between $96,000 And $98,000
In an X post, Ali Martinez noted that one of the most important support levels for the Bitcoin price is between $98,830 and $95,830, where 1.09 wallets bought over 1.16 million BTC. This explains why Bitcoin is holding steady between $96,000 and $98,000 as investors who bought between this level continue to provide huge support for the flagship crypto.
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As Martinez suggested, it is important for these holders to continue to hold steady as a wave of sell-offs could send the Bitcoin price tumbling even below $90,000. The flagship crypto dropped below $100,000 following the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell’s recent speech, in which he hinted at a hawkish stance from the US Central Bank.
This sparked a massive wave of sell-offs, as a Hawkish Fed paints a bearish picture for risk assets like Bitcoin. However, despite the Bitcoin price drop below, most Bitcoin holders remain in profit, which is a positive for the flagship crypto. IntoTheBlock data shows that 86% of Bitcoin holders are in the money, 4% are out of the money, and 9% are at the money.
These Bitcoin holders still seem bullish on the leading crypto as they continue to accumulate more BTC. In an X post, Ali Martinez stated that so far in December, 74,052 BTC have been withdrawn from exchanges, and this trend doesn’t seem to be slowing down.
Traders Anticipate A Bullish Reversal
Ali Martinez suggested that crypto traders anticipate a bullish reversal for the Bitcoin price from its current level. This came as he revealed that traders on Binance nailed the top, with 62.17% shorting Bitcoin while it was trading at $108,000. Now, Martinez stated that sentiment has flipped, with 55.44% of these trading now longing dips below $96,000.
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Meanwhile, it is crucial for the Bitcoin price to hold this $96,000, as Martinez warned that if BTC loses this support, it could drop below $90,000. The analyst stated that based on the Fibonacci level, if Bitcoin loses $96,000, the next point of focus becomes $90,000 and $85,000. Meanwhile, from a bullish perspective, crypto analyst Justin Bennett suggested that the $110,000 target is still in focus for the Bitcoin price.
At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $97,000, down over 3% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
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With Bitcoin now making six-figure territory feel normal and higher prices a seeming inevitability, the analysis of key on-chain data provides valuable insights into the underlying health of the market. By understanding these metrics, investors can better anticipate price movements and prepare for potential market peaks or even any upcoming retracements.
Terminal Price
The Terminal Price metric, which incorporates the Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) while factoring in Bitcoin’s supply, has historically been a reliable indicator for predicting Bitcoin cycle peaks. Coin Days Destroyed measures the velocity of coins being transferred, considering both the holding duration and the quantity of Bitcoin moved.
Currently, the terminal price has surpassed $185,000 and is likely to rise toward $200,000 as the cycle progresses. With Bitcoin already breaking $100,000, this suggests we may still have several months of positive price action ahead.
Puell Multiple
The Puell Multiple evaluates daily miner revenue (in USD) relative to its 365-day moving average. After the halving event, miners experienced a sharp drop in revenue, creating a period of consolidation.
Now, the Puell Multiple has climbed back above 1, signaling a return to profitability for miners. Historically, surpassing this threshold has indicated the later stages of a bull cycle, often marked by exponential price rallies. A similar pattern was observed during all previous bull runs.
MVRV Z-Score
The MVRV Z-Score measures the market value relative to the realized value (average cost basis of Bitcoin holders). Standardized into a Z-Score to account for the asset’s volatility, it’s been highly accurate in identifying cycle peaks and bottoms.
Currently, Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score remains below the overheated red zone with a value of around 3.00, signaling that there’s still room for growth. While diminishing peaks have been a trend in recent cycles, the Z-Score suggests that the market is far from reaching a euphoric top.
Active Address Sentiment
This metric tracks the 28-day percentage change in active network addresses alongside the price change over the same period. When price growth outpaces network activity, it suggests the market may be short-term overbought, as the positive price action may not be sustainable given network utilization.
Recent data shows a slight cooling after Bitcoin’s rapid climb from $50,000 to $100,000, indicating a healthy consolidation period. This pause is likely setting the stage for sustained long-term growth and does not indicate we should be medium to long-term bearish.
Spent Output Profit Ratio
The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) measures realized profits from Bitcoin transactions. Recent data shows an uptick in profit-taking, potentially indicating we are entering the latter stages of the cycle.
One caveat to consider is the growing use of Bitcoin ETFs and derivative products. Investors may be shifting from self-custody to ETFs for ease of use and tax advantages, which could influence SOPR values.
Value Days Destroyed
Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple expands on CDD by weighting larger, long-term holders. When this metric enters the overheated red zone, it often signals major price peaks as the market’s largest and most experienced participants begin cashing out.
While Bitcoin’s current VDD levels indicate a slightly overheated market, history suggests it could sustain this range for months before a peak. For example, in 2017, VDD indicated overbought conditions nearly a year before the cycle’s top.
Conclusion
Taken together, these metrics suggest that Bitcoin is entering the latter stages of its bull market. While some indicators point to short-term cooling or slight overextension, most highlight substantial remaining upside throughout 2025. Key resistance levels for this cycle may emerge between $150,000 and $200,000, with metrics like SOPR and VDD providing clearer signals as we approach the peak.
For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here: What’s Happening On-chain: Bitcoin Update
Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.
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