Analyst Benjamin Cowen is leaning bullish on Bitcoin (BTC) while warning that one factor could delay the flagship crypto asset from reaching $100,000 before the end of this year.

In an appearance on The David Lin Report, Cowen says that Bitcoin is primed to hit a six-figure price based on historical precedent.

“If you go look at like year-to-date return on investment (ROI)… and you average out all the prior halving years, we’re actually tracking it pretty closely. So if you average out 2012, 2016 and 2020 and then you overlay 2024, right now Bitcoin is at its average of prior halving years – so it’s basically 2x from the yearly open… the average of the other prior three halving years was also 2x from the yearly open.

You can see that the average from the yearly open by the end of the halving year for those was closer to 3x. So if Bitcoin can continue to follow the cyclical view, then it should be able to [reach $100,000].”

Cowen, however, says that a higher-than-expected unemployment rate could delay Bitcoin’s ascent to a six-figure price.

“I think the only thing that would prevent it from doing so would be labor market results that we’re going to get in two weeks.

So my base case is if the unemployment rate comes in low, let’s say it comes in at 4%, 4.1% maybe even 4.2%, would not be so bad. That would favor the cyclical view prevailing.

If it comes in really hot, for whatever reason, let’s say it comes in at 4.3% or 4.4%, then we might have to wait until 2025 for $100,000. That’s the way I see it right now.”

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Bitcoin reached a new all-time high yesterday, surging to $94,000 and solidifying the bulls’ control over the market. This milestone has ignited widespread speculation about the key factors fueling the rally, as Bitcoin continues to dominate headlines and capture investor enthusiasm. 

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Key insights from CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju shed light on the drivers of this historic surge. According to Ju, this rally has been powered by Coinbase investors, with U.S.-based buyers playing a significant role. The influx of demand from these investors underscores the growing domestic interest in Bitcoin and highlights the critical influence of American market participants on global crypto trends.

Adding to the excitement, market sentiment appears to be heavily influenced by the pro-crypto stance of President-elect Donald Trump. His support for digital assets has sparked optimism across the industry, potentially creating a favorable regulatory environment that could sustain Bitcoin’s growth.

Bitcoin Demand Continues To Drive The Price 

Bitcoin demand remains remarkably strong, even as miners and long-term holders (LTHs) take profits during this rally. Despite selling pressure from these groups, BTC continues to rise, underscoring the robust market appetite for the leading cryptocurrency. This strength suggests buyers readily absorb the distributed supply, fueling Bitcoin’s bullish momentum.

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju recently shared insightful data on X that highlights the driving forces behind this rally. According to Ju, U.S.-based investors using Coinbase have played a pivotal role in Bitcoin’s surge. He referenced the BTC Hourly Coinbase Premium (Volume-Weighted, USDT/USD Adjusted), which measures the difference in Bitcoin prices on Coinbase compared to other exchanges. 

The premium is currently positive and growing, indicating that U.S. investors are willing to pay more for BTC than their international counterparts. This trend demonstrates strong demand from U.S. market participants, likely buoyed by improving market sentiment and potential regulatory optimism.

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If this upward momentum in U.S. demand persists, Bitcoin’s rally could extend further in the coming weeks, potentially setting new highs before any major correction occurs. However, as with all parabolic trends, traders and analysts remain cautious, recognizing the possibility of eventual pullbacks. The focus remains on Bitcoin’s strength, as buyers continue to outpace sellers, driving the market higher.

BTC Setting New Highs (Again) 

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $93,300, following its recent break above the all-time high (ATH) of $93,483. While this move marked a new milestone for BTC, the price has since entered a sideways range within a defined uptrend, indicating that demand continues to outweigh supply. However, the breakout above the ATH lacked significant momentum, resembling more of a small spring than a decisive rally. This suggests that bulls might be starting to lose steam.

Despite this, BTC’s ability to maintain above $89,800 in the coming hours will be critical. Holding this key support level could pave the way for a surge to $95,000, aligning with broader market expectations of continued bullish momentum. Such a move would likely reaffirm confidence among investors, potentially driving further buying interest as Bitcoin eyes the psychological $100,000 level.

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On the other hand, a drop below $89,800 would shift the short-term narrative. This scenario could lead to a retrace toward lower demand zones around $85,000, where buyers might regroup to push prices higher again. As BTC consolidates near its ATH, the market awaits a decisive move to determine whether the bulls remain firmly in control or if a temporary correction is on the horizon.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView