bull market
How Trump’s Promises Could Influence BTC $250k forecast
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5 hours agoon
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adminAs analysts predict Bitcoin could reach $250K, how might Trump’s promises influence this potential? What should you be watching for in the coming months?
Trump triumphs
Donald Trump is back in the Oval Office, officially winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election as the 47th president. After a high-energy election night celebration at Mar-a-Lago with guests including Elon Musk and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., digital asset markets surged in response.
Bitcoin (BTC) rocketed past $75,000, reaching a fresh all-time high, while crypto-linked stocks like Coinbase and MicroStrategy saw strong after-hours gains.
For crypto supporters, Trump’ win signals more than just another GOP presidency, especially as he has made bold commitments to protect crypto, a notable departure from the past, when Trump’ stance on digital assets was anything but warm.
Moreover, with Trump’ Republican allies securing a Senate majority, the path is now open for the policies he hinted at throughout his campaign—policies that could reshape the future of crypto in both the U.S. and globally.
So, what promises has he made, and what should we expect from his term? Let’s find out.
Trump’s promises to the crypto industry
Bold vision for a national crypto stockpile
One of Trump’ biggest promises to the crypto world is to create what he calls a “strategic national crypto stockpile.” In simple terms, Trump aims to prevent the government from auctioning off seized Bitcoin, instead holding onto it as a national asset.
Trump believes that, just as countries hold reserves of gold or oil, the U.S. should secure a portion of Bitcoin to hedge against future financial uncertainties.
Currently, the U.S. government often auctions off Bitcoin seized from criminal cases, such as after the Bitfinex hack, but Trump has suggested putting a halt to these sales.
This promise is crucial, given that the U.S. Marshals Service has regularly auctioned Bitcoin holdings, sometimes causing temporary market dips. Earlier this year, Germany’s sale of hundreds of millions in seized Bitcoin led to similar price swings.
While Trump hasn’t provided a concrete plan for how this reserve would be managed, some view it as a step toward positioning the U.S. as a global crypto leader.
Creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve
One of Trump’ more intriguing promises is to establish a “strategic Bitcoin reserve” for the U.S. His idea is to retain Bitcoin seized from criminal activities, rather than auctioning it off, to gradually build a substantial national Bitcoin reserve.
This proposal gained further traction when Senator Cynthia Lummis introduced a bill to create a “Bitcoin strategic reserve,” aiming to accumulate one million BTC over five years as a hedge against the national debt.
If realized, this reserve could signal a shift in the U.S. approach to crypto, positioning Bitcoin as a strategic asset on par with gold or foreign currency reserves.
Promise to fire SEC Chair Gary Gensler “on day one”
Trump has also set his sights on the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, pledging to fire its current chair, Gary Gensler, on his first day in office.
Appointed by President Joe Biden, Gensler has led an aggressive crackdown on the crypto industry, initiating over 100 enforcement actions against crypto companies for alleged securities violations since he
Gensler’ stance — that much of the crypto industry falls under SEC jurisdiction — has sparked frustration among industry players, who argue they need clearer guidelines, not constant lawsuits.
However, Trump’ promise may not be as straightforward to execute. While the president can appoint the SEC chair, dismissing one requires valid grounds, like neglect or inefficiency, due to the SEC’ independent status.
Legal experts caution that firing Gensler “on day one” could prompt a lengthy review and may not happen as swiftly as Trump suggests.
Still, if Trump does manage to appoint a new SEC chair, it could mark a shift toward more crypto-friendly policies — though how much freedom the new leadership would truly have remains uncertain.
A national push for Bitcoin mining
Another bold promise from Trump is his call to ensure that all remaining Bitcoin is mined within the U.S. He envisions Bitcoin mining as “Made in the USA,” aiming to establish America as a global hub for the industry.
This vision was echoed during a private Mar-a-Lago meeting with key figures in U.S. crypto mining, including executives from major companies like Riot Platforms, Marathon Digital, and Core Scientific.
Trump’ goal aligns with his broader agenda of “energy dominance” for the U.S., believing that Bitcoin mining could boost energy production and decrease reliance on foreign energy sources.
However, the path to this goal is challenging. Bitcoin mining is decentralized by nature, relying on thousands of miners across the globe. Centralizing it within one country would contradict the decentralized ethos on which Bitcoin was built.
Moreover, about 90% of Bitcoin’ total supply has already been mined, leaving only a small yet symbolically significant portion — around 10% — that Trump hopes to bring under U.S. control.
Stopping the central bank digital currency development
Trump has also pledged to block any progress toward a central bank digital currency in the U.S. He made his stance clear: “There will never be a CBDC while I’m president”, citing that CBDCs pose a potential threat to financial privacy.
Unlike decentralized cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, a CBDC would be fully controlled by the government, potentially allowing for extensive surveillance of citizens’ transactions.
Trump’ position aligns with other Republican leaders, such as Ron DeSantis, who recently signed a bill in Florida to limit CBDC use within the state.
Opposition to CBDCs is also building in Congress. Representative Tom Emmer introduced the CBDC Anti-Surveillance State Act, aiming to prevent the Federal Reserve from issuing a CBDC without congressional approval.
The right to self-custody
Trump has also pledged to enshrine self-custody rights for crypto users into federal law, reinforcing the principle that “not your keys, not your coins” should be protected by the U.S. government.
Self-custody allows crypto holders to manage their private keys independently, ensuring they fully control their digital assets without relying on third parties like exchanges.
This promise aligns with recent legislative efforts by Republican Senator Ted Budd, who introduced the Keep Your Coins Act in 2023. The bill aims to safeguard Americans’ ability to transact with self-hosted crypto wallets, making it harder for regulators to impose restrictions on self-custody.
However, the proposal has sparked debate. Critics argue that self-custody could enable bad actors to evade anti-money laundering regulations, a concern highlighted by Senator Elizabeth Warren’ 2022 Digital Asset Anti-Money Laundering Act, which advocates for tighter controls.
While the crypto community largely views self-custody as an essential right, questions remain about how such laws might affect the balance between personal freedom and regulatory oversight.
A crypto-friendly advisory council
One of Trump’ more structural promises is to establish a dedicated “crypto advisory council” to guide his administration’s approach to crypto policy.
The goal of this council would be to create clear, industry-friendly regulations that support crypto growth rather than stifle it.
As Trump puts it, he wants “the rules to be written by people who love your industry, not hate it,” ensuring that crypto policies reflect a deep understanding of the industry’s needs and challenges.
Many industry insiders have voiced concerns that current regulations lack clarity, making it difficult for companies to operate within legal boundaries.
However, setting up such a council presents its own challenges, such as ensuring a diversity of perspectives and maintaining unbiased oversight.
Commuting Ross Ulbricht’s sentence
In a more controversial promise, Trump has vowed to commute the sentence of Ross Ulbricht, founder of the Silk Road marketplace.
Ulbricht, a first-time nonviolent offender, received a double life sentence plus 40 years without parole—a punishment many view as excessively harsh. Silk Road, the darknet marketplace he created, facilitated the trade of illegal goods, from drugs to weapons, with Bitcoin as the primary currency.
Ulbricht’ case has become a rallying point within the crypto and libertarian communities, where advocates argue that his sentence was disproportionate to the nature of his crime.
Critics, however, contend that his involvement in Silk Road fueled illegal activities and harmed individuals, making any consideration of leniency a sensitive issue.
What to expect from Trump’s crypto term
Recent tweets from crypto analysts reflect a mood of optimism as Trump’ presidency begins.
Michaël van de Poppe, a prominent crypto analyst, describes the current state of crypto as the end of the “longest and heaviest Altcoin bear market.”
He suggests we’re on the brink of a new “Dot.com bubble in Crypto,” hinting that this cycle could “go way higher than we all expect.”
If this outlook proves accurate, Trump’ pro-crypto stance could pave the way for a strong market rebound, benefiting from a more supportive regulatory environment.
Meanwhile, technical analyst Gert van Lagen forecasts that Bitcoin is on its “final ascent,” with a target of $250,000 by February next year.
He points to the recent reversal of the 10-2 yield curve — a classic precursor to recessions — as a sign that economic conditions could fuel a BTC rally.
For now, the industry watches to see if Trump’s bold promises can translate into action. If he delivers, the U.S. could emerge as a leader in crypto adoption, creating jobs and establishing financial alternatives that could leave a lasting mark on the entire crypto space.
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bull market
Crypto turns green as Bitcoin flirts with $73k
Published
1 week agoon
October 30, 2024By
adminMost cryptocurrencies are trading in the green in the past 24 hours, as Bitcoin price rose to $73,000 to push the global crypto market cap to $2.45 trillion.
This happens as Bitcoin (BTC), the flagship digital asset, topped $73,000 on Oct. 29. This is the highest level for BTC since bulls hit the all-time high in March2024.
Per crypto.news data, BTC price rose to highs of $73,001 across major exchanges, with a 5.7% surge in 24 hours. This meant bulls touched the psychological $73,000 mark again. While Bitcoin trades just below $72,930 at the time of writing, crypto analysts suggest bulls may not be done yet.
In an Oct. 28 interview with CNBC, VanEck head of digital assets Matthew Sigel said the current market, including the Nov. 5 vote, offers a very bullish setup for Bitcoin.
Veteran trader Peter Brandt also added to the bullish projection, suggesting BTC is headed to $94k.
Some analysts expect a breakout past the ATH will invite a breather as likely profits attract bids. However, the more bullish perspective is that the market is set to continue higher in coming months.
This sentiment has helped push most altcoins higher. Ethereum (ETH) is above $2,650, BNB (BNB) above $607 and Solana (SOL) $181. Sui (SUI) is up 24% to $2.03, while meme coins have also pumped, led by Popcat (POPCAT).
However, there are sectors that have outpaced the rest and could continue to dominate.
According to crypto analyst Miles Deutscher, memes with +219% year-to-date are the top performing sector. However, also outpacing the rest of the market have been artificial intelligence, real-world assets, Bitcoin ecosystem and decentralized physical infrastructure network.
Per the analyst, AI tokens are up 217% YTD as are BRC-20 tokens, while RWA (+134%) and DePIN (+73%) have topped amid the 2024 bull cycle.
But not all sectors are enjoying an uptick year-to-date. While coins in social finance, zero-knowledge and metaverse have nudged higher in recent weeks, SocialFi is down 57%, ZK -36% and metaverse -30% to rank among worst performing sectors. Governance tokens and layer-2 tokens are also in this category, with -25% and -16% YTD returns respectively.
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Bitcoin Magazine Pro
Is Bitcoin Repeating Previous Bull Cycles?
Published
2 weeks agoon
October 26, 2024By
adminBitcoin’s price cycles have long been a source of intrigue for investors and analysts alike. We can gain insights into potential price movements by comparing current trends to previous cycles, especially with Bitcoin seemingly coming to an end of its consolidation period, many wonder if the next leg up is around the corner.
Comparing Bitcoin Cycles
To begin, it’s crucial to look at how Bitcoin has performed since hitting its recent cycle low. As we examine the data, a clear picture begins to form: Bitcoin’s current price action (black line) is showing patterns similar to previous bull cycles. Although it has been a choppy consolidation period, where the price has been relatively stagnant, there are key similarities when we compare this cycle to those in 2015-2018 (purple line) and 2018-2022 (blue line).
Where we are today, in terms of percentage gains, is comparable to both the 2018 and 2015 cycles. However, this comparison only scratches the surface. Price action alone doesn’t tell the full story, so we need to dive deeper into investor behavior and other metrics that shape the Bitcoin market.
Investor Behavior
One key metric that gives us insight into investor behavior is the MVRV Z-Score. This ratio compares Bitcoin’s current market price to its “realized price” (or cost basis), which represents the average price at which all Bitcoin on the network was accumulated. The Z-Score then just standardizes the raw MVRV data for BTC volatility to exclude extreme outliers.
Analyzing metrics such as this one, as opposed to purely focusing on price actions, will allow us to see patterns and similarities in our current cycle to previous ones, not just in dollar movements but also in investor habits and sentiment.
Correlating Movements
To better understand how the current cycle aligns with previous ones, we turn to the data from Bitcoin Magazine Pro, which offers in-depth insights through its API. Excluding our Genesis cycle, as there is little correlation and isolating the price and MVRV data from Bitcoin’s lowest closing prices to its highest points in our current and previous three cycles, we can see clear correlations.
2011 to 2013 Cycle: This cycle, characterized by its double peak, shows a strong 87% correlation with the current price action. The MVRV ratio also shows a high 82% correlation, meaning that not only is Bitcoin’s price behaving similarly, but so is investor behavior in terms of buying and selling.
2015 to 2017 Cycle: This cycle is actually the closest in terms of price action, boasting an 89% correlation with our current cycle. However, the MVRV ratio is slightly lower, suggesting that while prices are following similar paths, investor behavior might be slightly different.
2018 to 2021 Cycle: This most recent cycle, while positive, has the lowest correlation to current trends, indicating that the market may not be following the same patterns it did just a few years ago.
Are We in for Another Double Peak?
The strong correlation with the 2011-2013 cycle is particularly noteworthy. During that period, Bitcoin experienced a double peak, where the price surged to new all-time highs twice before entering a prolonged bear market. If Bitcoin follows this pattern, we could be on the verge of significant price movements in the coming weeks. After overlaying the price action fractal from this period over our current cycle and standardizing the returns, the similarities are instantly noticeable.
In both cases, Bitcoin had a rapid run-up to a new high, followed by a long, choppy period of consolidation. If history repeats itself, we could see a massive price rally soon, potentially to around $140,000 before the end of the year when accounting for diminishing returns.
Patterns In Investor Behavior
Another valuable metric to examine is the Value Days Destroyed (VDD). This metric weights BTC movements by the amount being moved and the time since it was last transferred and multiplies this value by the price to offer insights into long-term investors’ behavior, specifically profit-taking.
In the current cycle, VDD has shown an initial spike similar to the red spikes we saw during the 2013 double peak. This run-up as BTC ran to a new all-time high earlier this year before a sustained consolidation period could see us reaching new highs soon again if this double peak cycle pattern continues.
A More Realistic Scenario
As Bitcoin has grown and matured as an asset, we’ve seen extended cycles and diminishing returns in our two most recent cycles compared to our initial two. Therefore, it’s probably more likely that BTC follows the cycle in which we’re seeing the strongest correlation in price action.
Figure 6: Overlaying a fractal of the 2017 cycle on our current price action.
If Bitcoin follows the 2015-2017 pattern, we could still see new all-time highs before the end of 2024, but the rally would likely be slower and more sustainable. This scenario predicts a price target of around $90,000 to $100,000 by early 2025. After that, we could see continuous growth throughout the year, with a potential market peak in late 2025, although a peak of $1.2 million if we follow this pattern exactly may be optimistic!
Conclusion
Historical data suggests we’re approaching a critical turning point. Whether we follow the explosive double-peak cycle from 2011-2013 or the slower but steady rise of 2015-2017, the outlook for Bitcoin remains bullish. Monitoring key metrics like the MVRV ratio and Value Days Destroyed will provide further clues as to where the market is headed, and comparing correlations with our previous cycles will give us better insights into what may be coming.
With Bitcoin poised for a breakout, whether in the next few weeks or in 2025, if BTC even remotely follows the patterns of any of our previous cycles, investors should prepare for significant price action and potential new all-time highs sooner rather than later.
For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here: Comparing Bitcoin Bull Runs: Which Cycle Are We Following
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Dogecoin Price Could Rally As This On-Chain Metric Turn Bullish
Published
4 weeks agoon
October 12, 2024By
adminRecent on-chain data shows that short-term trading activity for meme coins has been increasing, which could lead the Dogecoin price to rally.
Dogecoin’s recent 65% price retracement aligns with the typical pattern following a breakout from a multi-year descending triangle, setting the stage for a potential bull rally.
Dogecoin Price Surge: 200% Target in Sight
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez has highlighted the potential for a significant movement in Dogecoin price. According to Martinez, the DOGE price is currently breaking out of a multi-year descending triangle pattern. This has historically signaled significant price increases.
In previous instances, the memecoin experienced a 200% surge following similar breakouts. however, it subsequently saw a 60% retracement before embarking on a more substantial bull run.
For historical analysis, Martinez pinned three breakouts similar to what they saw this year since 2015, each moving upward with much force. If history is to repeat itself, a midterm rally could push Dogecoin price by 200% up to $0.2236. That level was last seen in December 2021.
The coin has retreated to the current price of $0.1112, representing a 2.92% jump in the last 24 hours. Nevertheless, that historical trend looks promising. The broader market conditions, including macroeconomic and investor sentiment perspectives, will likely shape its course in the coming weeks.
Adding to the bullish sentiment, whale activity around Dogecoin also intensified, with whales accumulating 2.07B DOGE in just one week.
This marks the most significant accumulation of this token by whales since January. It also indicates strong interest from large holders and potentially setting the stage for a substantial price movement.
This, however, may not have been completely unexpected. Recently, when the crypto market experienced a sudden wave of selling pressure, Dogecoin price showed resilience, posting a gain.
In the last week alone, some 110,000 short-term traders have traded Dogecoin, far outpacing its closest rivals, Shiba Inu, DEGEN, and Pepe. This rise in trading volume indicates that traders looking to make a quick kill in the markets for meme coins continue to find this memecoin an attractive option. That could mean more speculation or a renewed focus on DOGE, which leads the meme coin market.
DOGE Community Back in Action With Active Addresses Surge
First and foremost, it should be underlined that historically, each time Dogecoin price has broken out of its multi-year descending triangle pattern, this has been followed by a serious rally in price, with returns of about 200%.
Following that initial surge, the market usually undergoes a retracement of about 60%. This has often formed a consolidation before the next primary uptrend. If history is any guide, this breakout could be the starting point of yet another strong rally.
Active DOGE addresses have recently surged to 133,880, marking the highest level in the past eight months.
This significant increase highlights a resurgence in interest within the DOGE community, particularly as new users flock to the network.
Analysts attribute this growth to a combination of factors, including a broader positive sentiment in the market and a growing number of wallets, which reached over 90 million. The increase in active addresses reflects a spike in participation. It also hints at potential bullish momentum for DOGE moving forward.
Active #Dogecoin addresses recently surged to 133,880—the highest level in 8 months! pic.twitter.com/DojEsDscXk
— Ali (@ali_charts) October 12, 2024
The meme coin gained a peak as recently as September 28, 2024, when DOGE touched $0.1350. It has since lost around 15% of that value. It has nonetheless gained some poise at the start of October.
At the time of writing on October 12, DOGE was trading at $0.1111, representing a 2.64% week-over-week rise. Analysts remain upbeat that DOGE might rise to $0.1315 this month and have growing whale interest to support such a rebound.
According to recent Santiment data, whales holding between 1 and 10 million DOGE in wallets continued aggressively accumulating DOGE. This has been ongoing since October 2024, even with great volatility in prices. This is a sign that larger holders seem quite confident in the coin’s future potential.
Historically, when this accumulation trend emerges, it has often aligned with a market bottom and signaled a probable price reversal. If the pattern holds, then Dogecoin price might be preparing for a big upward movement in the near term, as confidence among these “whale” investors usually precedes market rebounds.
Whale Accumulation and New Users Fuel Dogecoin’s Rise
Speculation is well underway over Dogecoin’s future trajectory, which leads to notable growth, particularly in active addresses and whale accumulation.
For instance, the increase in active addresses denotes that new users are starting to pour into the market, likely in anticipation of further developments in the Dogecoin network. This enthusiasm among newcomers is of the essence because it signals renewed enthusiasm from investors.
However, it is tough to predict what will happen in the future with Dogecoin price. Though a strong community and endorsement by high-profile personalities add credibility to it, like all cryptocurrencies, DOGE remains susceptible to market volatility.
More recently, this milestone has surpassed 90 million wallets, serving as a signal of a growing base, one that might be a catalyst for innovation and adoption, which has repeatedly driven leading cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum to grow.
According to some reports, the surge in active activity indicates a rekindled investor interest. With the new entrants and whales buying into it, things look high for Dogecoin price and the token to shed its meme currency tag and be positioned as a cryptocurrency with serious growth. As adoption and innovation have become the key elements for the future, the market will keenly watch how these factors pan out.
Teuta
Teuta is a seasoned writer and editor with over 15 years of experience in macroeconomics, technology, and the cryptocurrency and blockchain industries. Starting her career in 2005 as a lifestyle writer for Cosmopolitan in Croatia, she expanded into covering business and economy for several esteemed publications like Forbes and Bloomberg. Influenced by figures like Don Tapscott and Bruce Dickinson, Teuta embraced the blockchain revolution, believing crypto to be one of humanity’s most crucial inventions. Her fintech involvement began in 2014, focusing on crypto, blockchain, NFTs, and Web3. Known for her excellent teamwork and communication skills, Teuta holds a double MA in Political Science and Law, enjoys punk rock, chablis, and has a passion for shoes.
Disclaimer: The presented content may include the personal opinion of the author and is subject to market condition. Do your market research before investing in cryptocurrencies. The author or the publication does not hold any responsibility for your personal financial loss.
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